Virginia Tech Men's Basketball: The Matrix 1.3

Analysis of the 2014-15 basketball team 26 games into the season.

[Mark Umansky]

Welcome back to the third iteration of Thekeyplay's deep dive into the past, present and future of Buzzketball. As the season has progressed, many preseason predictions have proved to be both amazingly true and wildly off-base. Raise your hand if you thought Christian Beyer would become this team's most balanced post threat by this point in the season? Anyone? Exactly.

The loss of starting center Joey van Zegeren and prolonged injury to leading scorer Justin Bibbs provided extended minutes to various role players during conference play. This not only allowed the entire roster ample opportunity to earn playing time, but it also provided the fanbase a look behind the curtain to see exactly what each player brings to the table.

Let's be honest — Version 1.1 of The Matrix had Mr. Beyer firmly entrenched at the bottom of virtually every category based primarily on the fact that he was doing his best Paul Debnam impression at the end of Buzz's bench.

Fast forward two months and Beyer has established himself as a prototypical "Buzz Williams guy," maximizing his skillset by attempting to out-work his opponents.

For those of you who are new to The Matrix or can't quite remember what each of the categories entail, read Version 1.1.

The Matrix 1.3


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Alpha Male

Leading scorer Justin Bibbs' absence due to head injury created an offensive vacuum heading into the meat of the Hokies' conference slate. Enter Adam Smith. The peanut butter to Bibbs' jelly, Smith stepped up when the Hokies needed him most, none better than his game-winning performance against the Pitt Panthers.

More gunner than multi-dimensional offensive threat, Smith continues to be plagued by hot-and-cold spells. A rhythm shooter, Smith's ability to score in bunches has kept the Hokies close in a number of games that were on the verge of slipping away.

This offense has been at its best when Smith wasn't the sole scoring option, and that's okay. Scoring is his game, but where I've been most impressed has been Smith's ability to step up and lead. As Devin Wilson's confidence and court time have dwindled, Smith has been much more assertive on the floor.

Has he demanded the rock a bit more than I would like? Probably. Has he been forced to play the point a bit more than Buzz would like? Absolutely. (I would argue Syracuse's furious comeback was the result of the team's glaring need for an adept leader at the point). At a minimum, I've been pleased by his initiative to fill the void created by the collective loss of JVZ, the injury to Bibbs and the decline of Wilson.

It will be important for this team to have senior leadership heading into this offseason, and it is comforting to see Smith visibly ascend into that leadership position well before the season wraps up.

Floor General

What a strange season it has been for Devin Wilson. After playing virtually every minute of his freshman year under former head coach James Johnson, Wilson has seen a steady decrease in his minutes. While some may suggest it is a way of limiting his minutes, I suspect there's more to it. With a number of guards on the roster that do multiple things well, Wilson has been exposed as a limited offensive player. I think we can all agree that his best skill is passing the ball. Aside from that, does he do anything exceptionally well?

He hasn't developed as a proficient primary ball handler, and his glaring lack of confidence shooting from outside of 12 feet has really limited this offense. Because defenses no longer respect him as a perimeter threat, they tend to sag back, clogging up the lane. To make matters worse, the pick-and-roll game that Wilson traditionally excelled in has become a non-factor as defenses are no longer forced to defend him on the keep.

All the while, guys that are less developed distributors but more dangerous scorers have seemingly passed Wilson on the depth chart. Maybe I'm reading too far into things, but I haven't seen him take the reins of this team while on the court.

Wilson had a good eight-minute stretch in the first half against Miami, doing some damage in the paint thanks to some clever post moves. With his confidence raised, he commanded the huddle during stoppages in play. Rather than carry that voice throughout the rest of the game, it was no where to be found during Miami's extended run in the second half.

Over the last six weeks, I have seen Adam Smith and Will Johnston dominate the huddle over the incumbent Wilson. That's a troubling development to me, because coming into this season he and Joey van Zegeren were viewed as the leaders of an otherwise green squad. Fast forward 4 months and it's looking increasingly possible that this team could enter next season without either of the two.

So what will become of Devin Wilson when the season wraps up? Is there a place for him on this team next season? This is a topic we will discuss in greater detail as the season wraps up, but with the incoming freshman class (namely Justin Robinson) and Seth Allen already in the fold, you have to wonder how Wilson fits into Buzz's long term plans.

Rim Protector

There's a large part of me that just wants to skip this category altogether. I'm surely not alone in being absolutely sick of hearing various announcers rehash the same tired (but true) statistic about how the Hokies have been massively outrebounded this season. It's similar to the three years of "6-6", 255 pounds" when referencing Logan Thomas, but the opposite. At least the Logan references caused the corners of our mouths to curl, excited for the impending moment when LT3 trucked a hapless defender. Now we just groan with each reference to our height deficiency, bracing ourselves for another replay of Will Johnston getting tossed around like a rag doll.

Following the departure of JVZ, the Hokies are left with a couple of tall guys and another who has essentially been asked to pretend to be tall.

Satchel Pierce's abrupt shift from the kiddie pool to the deep end appeared to be too much too soon; he did his best to hold his own, but clearly has a long way to go. It's hard to be an impact defender and above average rebounder when both your instincts and your footwork are consistently one step behind.

Christian Beyer is a warrior and probably the Hokies' strongest two-way post player right now, but he will be moving on to medical school next fall. I've detailed Shane Henry's abilities during previous matrices, but he would be better served playing the four alongside a capable center that can pick up his offensive slack.

So where am I going with this? As we head into the season's stretch run, the Rim Protector category has become the toughest to project. The four- and five-guard lineups have made it challenging to truly understand the abilities of many of the Hokies defenders.

I'm not convinced Big Satch is the answer at center, and I have no idea what a guy like Kerry Blackshear will offer next season. It has been obvious from the outset that the Hokies need to get bigger next season; however, the absence of JVZ has exacerbated an already thin frontcourt, making off-season improvements in this area more vital than ever.

Lock-down Defender

Here's the thing with Malik Müller: The dude has gone from complementary ball-handler to bench warmer to stalwart post defender in 24 games. He's a stout 6'-3" guard jockeying with guys 6+ inches taller night-in and night-out, yet he continues to sprint up-and-down the court; move well off the ball in offensive sets; and is constantly unafraid to step in and take a charge (or three) in the paint.

Most guys would be bruised and battered after the hits he takes each game. But thanks to a traditional German diet consisting of wursts, spaetzle, pickled cabbage and a side of Black Forest Cake, Dots nary bats an eye at the American weaklings trying to break him.

In all seriousness, Müller has exemplified the Buzz Williams way over the last few weeks. He has played as hard as humanly possible — sometimes playing a bit too hard, picking up the occasional silly foul — and has proved to be both a clutch and calming influence for this young and shorthanded team.

I can't help but watch Müller and think of Deron Williams during his time at Illinois. Consider Williams' and Müller's freshmen seasons:

Player Points Per 40 Min. Rebounds Per 40 Min. Assists Per 40 Min. Steals Per 40 Min. Team PPG
Deron Williams 9.3 4.4 6.7 2.1 74.6
Malik Mueller 12.2 5 3 2 66.3

There are a couple of variables that nudge specific categories one way or the other — Müller has spent half the season matched up against taller opponents, while Williams played the two alongside Dee Brown. I would argue Müller's assists number is not an accurate reflection of his abilities as a distributor, as this Hokies team has struggled to convert scoring opportunities and is incredibly guard-heavy.

Re-watch the Georgia Tech game and pay close attention to the deadly high-low game executed by Dots and Beyer. Williams, on the other hand, paired with Brown to account for nearly 53% of the Illini assists on a team stocked with dangerous frontcourt scorers.

Sure, he's probably not as quick or as strong driving to the hoop as Williams was, but give him time to develop. It's not just Müller's frame or ability to shoot from distance that draws comparisons to Williams; it's the way that he confidently handles the ball, makes the pass and then immediately sprints away from the ball as part of the offense.

Where many guards make a pass and then re-position themselves to receive the ball back, Dots selflessly immerses himself into the system off the ball. Everything is done with purpose and energy.

Maybe he's not truly locking anyone down on the defensive end. Maybe he lacks the adequate lateral quickness to guard guys more his size once this team gets true post players into the program to alleviate the need for Müller's strong base. But dammit do I love how he has stepped up to help this team out where they needed it the most.

Energy Guy

Ahmed Hill may have already set a record for the most charges on fastbreak dunk attempts. In Version 1.1, I included a clip of Henry exploding up-court and picking up a charge. Last Tuesday against Georgia Tech, Hill did virtually the exact same thing.

We've all played with an Ahmed Hill before (though typically they are considerably less talented players). They're that teammate that has absolutely no fear, playing with a constant disregard for their own safety. Up by twenty points or trailing by thirty, they're continually playing at an 11 while the rest of team is at a 7. If anything, the more dire the circumstances, the harder they play. You call them stubborn; your coach admires their heart. They're the coach's favorite player and your most frustrating teammate, because they regularly remind you that there's always more effort to give.

At times he looks overly excited to get up and down the court, but how can you not love his effort? As the season has worn on, Hill has settled into his role as a mainstay at the wing. His offensive game — especially his distance shooting — has developed nicely, and he has fought hard on the defensive end despite being matched up against bigger foes.

When you pair Hill with Jalen Hudson and Shane Henry, you have a group of spark plugs that can immediately alter the game based purely on their athleticism and attacking mentality. It has become increasingly clear why Buzz worked to get Hill to Blacksburg — they're a fantastic match.

Comments

I just hope Devin Wilson doesn't end up on the wrong end of a "Buzzcut." Maybe it's adjusting to a new scheme, maybe he's in a sophomore slump. I understand he's regressed somewhat and he wasn't exactly Chris Paul to begin with, but I don't question the kid's desire, heart, or toughness. He has worked his tail off and has taken a lot of lumps for the O&M.

"That kid you're talking to right there, I think he played his nuts off! And you can quote me on that shit!" -Bud Foster

If he does, he does.

We have a long way to go before we are where we need to be as a program, and Buzz is getting us up to that point as quickly as possible. If it is deemed that Devin would be better suited elsewhere, then best of luck to him wherever he lands. Same with you, I don't question his desire, heart, or toughness, but you can only give so many A's for effort before you need to start seeing results.

"When I was growing up, Virginia Tech was a school that was kicking ass and taking names, and it's time we get back to that" - James Franklin

Devin Wilson will not be on the basketball team at VT next year. He has shown time and time again that he cannot produce in Buzz's system.

Which is why he needs to move to WR with football team. It's a win, win.

I think you are right, he might be the one to transfer.

I think Wilson is a curious case. I don't think he has the mentality that he has to be the star of the team. I could see him accepting the role player position and staying with this team and playing off the bench. He hasn't shown that he could be an every game starter at the D1 level, so transferring for minutes would have to happen to the D2 level. I think his competitive nature wouldn't enjoy that as much as competing in the ACC off the bench. He was the best player we had to run the point last year and he played it better than we expected, but on most better D1 teams he would not have seen that number of minutes in his first two years combined.

I hope he stays, he demonstrates the work ethic required to play on this level and he's the workout warrior type that opens the eyes of younger players.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

I think you're saying we should convert Müeller to a tight end

HOKIE HOKIE HOKIE HI
'14 grad

I've never understood TKPs fascination with players and tight ends, maybe it's because I'm a boobs man...

"Hokie religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo

Rim Protector: ?? Mo Kirby being discussed ?? I guess its technically possible for Kirby to come back next season, after transferring to Coffeyville Community College this season, but I dont see that being the case. Next season, we have to hope that Kerry Blackshear can play at the five spot, rather than his natural position of being a four.

I would almost argue that our best rim protector at this point has been Mueller by preventing the bigs down low from getting the ball. The scary number is that there is not one current Hokie that averages more than four rebounds per game. Thats a disgusting number for a Division I squad.

Most of the other categories, at this point, the level of difference amongst so many players is so small I wont dither with you about how you ranked them. I did appreciate your comparison of Mueller to Williams, as its a pretty accurate description.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Agree on Mueller. His post defense has actually been fun to watch. Once Blackshear comes in and if Pierce develops a little, he could be playing more of a 3 and his size would be much more comparable to who he would be defending.

Rob, any thoughts on LeDay? Will he be a substantial contributor next year?

In two seasons at USF, he was not a starter, and didnt really contribute much more than what we see from Henry or Pierce. About 4 points and 2.5 rebounds in about 15 minutes of gametime each game. That said, I am not sure how Buzz will utilize him. Buzz had enough faith in him to allow a scholarship to sit on the sideline for a year, he will have had a year of working out under Buzz and staff so I would hope that we might see some improvement off his two years at USF. One plus is that he is a solid body, so he wont be swept from the block with a soft hip check or something similar.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Here's the issue with "per game" stats – they're incredibly misleading and not in any way indicative of a player's potential or efficiency. It's the reason John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating is so useful — it removes the per game variables so that you can objectively analyze the performance of starters and bench players side-by-side. Take Shane Henry for example: His defensive statistics per forty minutes are out of control, but because he is a limited offensive player and can't seem to go 90 seconds without picking up a foul (for a variety of reasons), he only sees the court for 11 minutes per game. Henry averages only 3.1 RPG vs. 11.4 Rebounds Per 40; Satchel Pierce, on the other hand, averages 2.4 and 7.1 boards, respectively, in just over 13 mpg.

While I agree that it's all moot when you're looking at a team's performance within the vacuum of one game, the purpose here is to project. The rebounds per game statistic is clearly indicative of our much discussed height disadvantage. It's not going to change this year (unless a university department somehow unlocks a way to turn Buzz's Bunch into the MonStars), so the best we can do is try to understand what this roster offers in terms of potential.

I guess my concern is two fold regarding the projections. First, you touched on a critical aspect of projection when talking about how long Pierce and Henry manage to stay on the floor. If I had to project next season from what I have seen, I am having a hard time expecting that their foul issues will improve dramatically. If thats the case, their efficiency doesnt matter because they cant be counted on to be on the floor in critical moments.

Second, even with the additions to the team that we know of for next season, I still would have liked to see at least one or two of this years team step up in terms of rebounding, because we wont be a fully loaded roster for at least one more season. Several of these same guys are going to play roles where they are counted on to get rebounds consistently next season.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

I would argue the fouls are a product of three things: (1) Our extreme height disparity leads to increased chances near the hoop, resulting in a disproportionate number of contested shots (compared to the norm); (2) Inexperience (Henry's JUCO experience is not ACC experience); and (3) poor help defense. All three of those things should theoretically improve next season. Whether or not Satch, Henry, et al takes the next step is anyone's guess.

Have you ever played the 5 position? It's extremely difficult and you are essentially the anchor of your team defense. In addition to having your own responsibility in man sets, you need to maintain proper ball-you-man positioning, split the floor and serve as the last line of defense in the paint. Teammate gets burned? You're supposed to be the one, if possible, to provide help and challenge the shot. Remember the first FSU game? Henry, Beyer and Satch were surely told not to provide help down the stretch in order to keep them in the game after early foul trouble, so FSU had uncontested layup after uncontested layup.

My point is, a reduction in foul trouble and an increase in rebounding statistics are as much (if not more of) a team defense issue as they are an individual issue. This thought that we're screwed next year because the only big we're bringing in is Blackshear, and Satch and Henry can't be counted on, is a cop out. Buzz would have gone all-in on bigs this cycle if that were the case. Guys like Hill, Satch, Henry and Bibbs need to hit the weight room, and the staff needs to get all five guys to work as a collective if they want to increase their chances on the defensive end. I firmly believe that if the individuals take the necessary steps and the team improves working as a group, then you will see a reduction in fouls and an increase in boards — without a fully-loaded roster.

No, I have never actually played the five, because even at 6'3 in high school, we had enough height that I could play my more natural role as a shooting guard. I do however understand the necessities of the position and the issues that playing the position brings. That said, neither Henry or Satch typically take fouls resulting from trying to play help defense, nor do they take many as the last line of defense. They both seem to take fouls because they either dont trust their positioning and coaching, or because instead of acting boldly, they act hesitant and get caught in the middle of an action. Pierce is especially guilty of the hesitant foul, getting caught reaching in because he hesitated and gave the offensive player enough time to protect the ball.

We do suffer from height disparity, sure, but height many times does not overcome correct positioning and timed jump. Unfortunately, this is one skill I have not seen from many of our players. The two that seem to be the best at this are Beyer, who will be gone next season, and Devin Wilson, who just sticks his nose in. Part of the problem on the offensive end with positioning is that our shooters very often put the ball up with no one under the rim and Buzz' system calls for them to get back regardless to prevent transition buckets. But on the defensive end, our players consistently fail to get inside position when a shot is put up. Part of that is having to defend from the front to try to contest interior passing but the other is just not getting it, mostly on the backside from the play, which is where a majority of missed shots end up as they cross over the rim and exit the backside. We constantly fail to have someone on the interior of the backside block and it kills us. As you alluded to, it is on guys like Bibbs, Hill, Henry and Satch to improve on that. I just havent seen much improvement on it as this season has gone on so it worries me that its not something of focus from the coaching staff. If thats the case, it may linger into next season.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Good for him! I hope he can help them make the tournament for the first time ever.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

Ok, who else wants us to draw Northwestern in the ACC-B1G challenge next year? I

HOKIE HOKIE HOKIE HI
'14 grad