Much has been said about how VT has done in the 757. Below are the numbers and trends of 757 recruiting the last 10 seasons.
The main focus of this is where the upper talent of the 757 go. Just about any program can fill out their roster with 3 star players. Getting 4 stars and up are where programs separate themselves gathering talent. I also (Bitter sort of beat me to the punch), took a look into where and if the powerhouse programs have any college loyalty.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/vzz5gum71ye2i6m/757.xlsx?dl=0
Sorry about the poor presentation. I started collecting data for just 4*+ and then went back to do 3 as well after. 5 star players have (5) next to the name. Bold are for 4*. Regular text is 3*. All ratings are 247composite
As far as how we do for top talent, its not great. The last 10 years we landed 5 of 31 players. UVA got 9.
The last 5 years UVA has us beat 9 to 2. That's where peoples complaints come from. Losing a player to FSU isnt bad. Losing to UVA is.
We also only got 1/7 5 star players in the last 10 years.
Now looking at the high school loyalty trends. (I understand we did not offer every player)
The big dog, Oscar Smith, didn't show loyalty to anyone for a while. Schools from Arkansas to Cuse got a piece. We have picked up 3 in the last 4 years though.
Phoebus has not been good for us historically, but we did pick up 1 each of the last two years.
Ocean Lakes has had 4 in 4 years go to UVA, including 2 4 stars. VT has had only 2 3 stars in 10 years.
Bayside has been a slaughter. Not only have we not had 1 kid from there in 10 years, but UVA has had 5 in the last 6 years including 2 4 stars and a 5 star.
Salem has done well for us recently and Lake Taylor hasn't sent us one player (though 2016 looks good)
Friends want to play together, thats why these trends matter. Not to mention the overall relationship with HS coaches.
Feel free to make your own conclusions from the data. I probably missed a 3 star or two from schools like princess anne since I started with 4+ star only and then only added 3 stars to schools that had 4+ star players already
Comments
So to hell with Bayside and Ocean Lakes...
He's not wrong. If you know anything about recruiting in VA you would know that the coaches there don't exactly steer players towards VT...
I followed high school football recruiting in VB very closely for a long time. I can understand the frustration with Bayside, but not Ocean Lakes. Still, blasting schools that are perceived to be slighting VT isn't the greatest idea. I have never heard anything but good things about Chris Scott (OL). I also don't believe he steers kids to VT, but that is the way it should be, IMO. He should be neutral, and he should be accommodating to any fair and respectable college coach that is interested in his players, which I believe he is. VT has full access to OL as far as I know.
Just because some of his players trained with the Thoroughbreds, doesn't make him a fan of that organization. I hate to see him lumped in there like that . It is a leap, and I believe a very wrong one. I suspect, as I suspect is the case with MOST high school coaches - (even intimated, in fact, by Bayside's former coach), that he wishes the Thoroughbreds of the world would just go away. Or better, that he had access to the kids to coach them year round himself. I don't believe he would come out and say anything antagonistically, though. I think this is a case of being resigned to the change in the landscape and adapting to it. From a distance, it appears it is the smart play, too.
Just curious on why so many people on this site seem to gravitate towards 247 while Yahoo sports/Rivals seems to be more legit. I can't take 247 serious with the stupid Crystal balls, not to mention the garbage" 247 insiders" who almost always say they think a kid is going to commit to the school they cover. I dunno I'd be lying if I said I never check 247 but it just seems so many ppl on Keyplay use it as an end all be all.
I feel like 247 including everyone's rankings in it's composite is the reason why it's sited a lot.
I'm a fan of the VT 247 site, think there are some guys on there with a lot of good info.
Rivals was the industry leader 5 years ago. But 247 was founded by one of the original rivals founders and took a handful of rivals scouts with him. The crystal balls are goofy but the scouting is legit. Plus the composite takes rivals into account
The data would look roughly the same regardless
This. Say what you will about the crystal ball system or even the composite (which if I remember correctly includes Scout.com, who does a terrible job in Virginia/the mid-atlantic), but 247 currently does the best job as a whole of scouting and ranking recruits. They've gotten better over the years as well.
Bud Foster follows 247 on twitter. That's good enough for me.
I think Phoebus has been actually pretty good for VT historically, considering the number of notable Hokies that have come from them. I agree that Bayside and Lake Taylor are schools that VT needs to make a stronger presence in.
I really like this topic btw, if someone with intimate knowledge of 703 and 804 recruiting could make a similar post, that'd be great!
Couple of thoughts. First, loluva in 2012. Ouch. But different story in 2013 and 2015. Are the T-breds still a thing? Is Stiney's revamped role after the 2012 season having a positive effect? Second, Clemson has only snagged one in this time period (Tajh Boyd, I assume). Have they stopped recruiting the area? Unlikely. Or are they simply losing out to FSU, too?
Nice post, btw. +1 for the effort.
While I would love to get all of the 4 and 5 star guys out of the 757 and acknowledge the area has loads of talent, I am not convinced it is a do or die thing like some people seem to believe. I live in VB and grew up in norfolk and would say that the kids are getting softer in some of the districts. Most of the badasses on the team over the last ten years came from outside the 757. I'd take RMFW over Smoke "The Joke" Mizzell any day. Again, get as much of the top shelf talent from here as possible cuz many of them are national championship caliber. But this obsession is just getting ridiculous.
A better analysis would be how many of those guys went on to stardom/contribute vs. the guys VT does get who play/go to the NFL. Facyson, Maddy, etc weren't that highly ranked
I don't think that's what the OP was trying to demonstrate.
No one can predict how good a recruit is going to be and how much they are going to contribute. Sure you can easily assume with beasts like A.Peterson and J.Clowney coming out of high school but that's very rarely the case...even with 5 stars.
This post is focusing on how well VT has 'recruited' in the Hampton Roads areas over the past 10 years. Not how well we managed to make 3* players into first round picks or how much guys have contributed from
North CarolinaGeorgia (Facyson) and Florida (Maddy).edit: corrected Facyson's home state.
I thought Facyson was from Georgia
Thanks yea. If I did the data based on college results, then you believe one of two things. Either that players like Maddy and Kyle Fuller were just under rated out of high school and would have played great in college anywhere because the scouting was wrong, or that VT coaching is great at developing talent. Which we could assume we would do with players that didn't choose us
Five star recruits like Mizzell , Brown, Blanding so far are winless against the hokies. There R many reasons for recruits to go to other schools. Hokie Nation should focus more on what they got instead of the ones that got away.
Saying they are winless against us doesn't mean they wouldn't have been great for us. And the point of this wasn't to complain about who got away, it was just to provide an actual data set to all the people who make broad and often slightly incorrect statements about our 757 recruiting.
Imagine what VT could do with Blanding, he's a legit talent whereas Eli Harold was so overhyped. VT has a lot of ground to make up in not only 757, but 804 and NoVa as well. That being said, VT is now making steps to fix the issue. everyone knows Shane has whiffed on recruiting since he's come to VT but I think we're on the up swing. (Side note) I don't credit Shane with David Wilson, he was already a VT lean when shane was hired.
Why do you and others think Shane has "whiffed" on recruiting? He has brought kids here.
Yes he has, maybe "whiffed" was the wrong word. I think Underwhelmed better represents his time in Blacksburg. Don't let his last name influence your thoughts on his time at Tech. Since he has been at Tech, we moved to a "run by committee " run game and he simply hasn't put down strong roots yet with the high school coaches. I think he will only get better with time, as any coach will but he came in overhyped as a recruiter from USC.
but aren't most of the recruits national prospects? he's been made the front man for them for sure but with those types of kids it's a full court spread or nothing. So I see it more as a team fail than individual.
People who say that are sore about the 2015 class. Shane missed out on several prominent Richmond area recruits that were at one point or another VT leans.
I was about to make an argument for purnell sturdivant out of lake Taylor but then I realized he was a freshman more than ten years ago...God I hate getting old