Bitter blog - Attrition rates tell a partial tale of Hokies' swoon the last few years

By: Andy Bitter on March 10, 2015, 12:20 PM | 12 comments

I'd like to thank whoever started that thread on attrition rates the other day for the idea.

http://www.roanoke.com/sports/columns_and_blogs/blogs/andy_bitter_virgin...

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Comments

kicaboojooce's picture kicaboojooce | 11 years 4 months #

I did get a twinkle in my eye Andy

french60wasp's picture french60wasp
| 11 years 4 months #

Andy- one thing we have not heard is how many kids will not be continuing in the program this year. Is there any update on any kids who have decided to move on this year?

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Andy Bitter's picture Andy Bitter | 11 years 4 months # ^

Not sure yet. They usually update the roster just before spring.

I think you can judge from the bench pressing stuff who's not around anymore. I didn't see Alford, Trimble or Prince on there. Can't think of any injury reasons for them not to be participating.

I've heard Prince might just focus on track, although I'm not sure if that's been finalized yet.

Hokie Fireman's picture Hokie Fireman
🚨 🚒 🔥
| 11 years 4 months # ^

Wow not nearly as many as I thought.

Wet stuff on the red stuff.

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Andy Bitter's picture Andy Bitter | 11 years 4 months # ^

Devin Vandyke's on there too. I think you see more after spring and in the summer if they sense they're not going to play much.

cds7c's picture cds7c | 11 years 4 months # ^

Alford wasn't effective last year, but losing any bodies at DE isn't a good thing.

french60wasp's picture french60wasp
| 11 years 4 months # ^

I wouldn't be shocked about Prince. He was a kid that I thought would really be successful at VT, but he didn't look like he was progressing as a WR.

Alford was a surprise, unless he sat out because of an injury. Was it a shoulder or an abdominal injury that he struggled with last year? Hello opportunity for Hill, Fullwood, Nijamn, and Gaines.

Five star get after it 100 percent Juice Key-Playing. MAN

mogwaiaredangerous's picture mogwaiaredangerous | 11 years 4 months #

2010 gets worse and worse the more numbers you look at. It's interesting though that there's no real correlation between attrition rates and winning percentage. I wonder if there would be over something like a standard deviation though; as in a program can handle consistent 30%-50% attrition every year, but if it ever spikes above that number (like our 2010) you have a strong indicator for poor performance over the next few. Which also begs the question of whether a negative spike increases your expected wins.

VThokies904's picture VThokies904 | 11 years 4 months # ^

i would say a big reason for that is schools like wake forrest and duke a kid is more likely to choose because of education not football so when football isnt panning out so much they dont jump ship and on to the next school or something of that nature. not saying alot of athletes dont choose VT for athletics but when you become a 10 win team with some football prestige kids are coming for football not education. not a knock on VT just kind of what it is. and while win percentage doesnt directly reflect attrition some losing percents could possibly be because that 70% attr. sure looks bad now looking back and i think directly reflects some of our struggles.

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krak_t's picture krak_t | 11 years 4 months #

...took the number of signees for each school and counted how many players were dismissed, failed school, transferred or quit playing football before their four-year run concluded.

  • Duke: 272 – 84 (31%)
  • Clemson: 292 – 92 (32%)
  • Wake Forest: 257 – 81 (32%)
  • Boston College: 266 – 93 (35%)
  • N.C. State: 306 – 107 (35%)
  • Miami: 310 – 110 (35%)
  • Georgia Tech: 248 – 92 (37%)
  • Florida State: 311 – 116 (37%)
  • Pittsburgh: 298 – 113 (38%)
  • Virginia Tech: 305 – 120 (39%)
  • Virginia: 290 – 115 (40%)
  • Syracuse: 307 – 127 (41%)
  • Louisville: 297 – 132 (44%)
  • North Carolina: 306 – 138 (45%)

I'm not drawing any conklushuns... concluezuns... I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.

Andy Bitter's picture Andy Bitter | 11 years 4 months # ^

I think it's pretty clear nobody was failing school at UNC, though.

krak_t's picture krak_t | 11 years 4 months # ^

Hah. Touche.

Or as UNC would put it: