This was a painful season for everyone, Buzz, players, and fans alike. The OOC schedule had some high moments but it also had some painfully low moments. Tech managed to come through that stretch in about the same place as we have the last few years. 8-5 record, with three of the five losses by less than one basket. The two losses by more than that turned out to be the only two ranked teams on our OOC in #11 Northern Iowa and #18 WVU, who finished their seasons 30-3 and 22-9. No real shame in losing those two games with the inexperienced make up of our roster. Nothing to crow about but nothing really to hang our heads about either except for maybe the loss to Appalachian State. Even the Radford loss comes to a team that ultimately finished with 21 wins on the season so you cant get too upset about that loss.
Then came the conference slate and boy did it ever bear down on this team. You would think after our last three seasons as fans, we would have been prepared for it, but with Buzz at the helm I think it gave us just that little ray of sunshine to expect better.
Unfortunately, what became the norm was playing a team even until the last few minutes and then letting the game slip away. We did unfortunately again have our share of blowouts though. We managed to lose nine conference games by more than 10 points. Its also tough to say that this teams best games were losses as well, but that unfortunately is true. Their games against Duke and UVA the first time were probably the best that this team played all season, only to watch the games get away at the end. 2-16, with their wins coming against two teams with losing conference records doesn't bode well for our performance this season.
We can point at a multitude of reasons, height, experience, fatigue all have come off our fingers in recent months and all contributed to our results. The most painful ones for me were those that it appeared that these young men had finally turned a corner, get out to a lead and end up losing by one or two possessions at the end. We lacked a consistent killer instinct across this squad.
Lets take a look at how a few of our players did individually. Some of the advanced statistics show some surprising information about who did the most for Tech as an individual. Some of these results are significantly below normal based on our limited wins.
We will start with the Mad Bomber, Adam Smith, who seemed like he could score from anywhere outside the arc for much of the season. Surprisingly, he has the highest Win Share per 40 minutes on the roster at .083. The average across the NCAA for win share is about .1, so it shows that with our few number of wins, our entire roster is below the NCAA average for win share per 40. It also says that as questionable as Smith sometimes was on defense, he made up for that on the opposite end of the court to lead this team in winning games. To give you an idea of where Smith was defensively, his defensive rating indicates he would give up 120.8 points per 100 possessions. This was second worst on the team, only surpassed by Will Johnston's 120.9 per 100 possessions. Smith finished the season shooting 41% from outside the arc, which is phenomenal considering how difficult it seemed to be to get him open even the inch or two that he needed. His offensive rating shows us that he would score 113.9 points per 100 possessions, which is very solid. The scary part of that is that he has the second best "difference" between his Defensive and Offensive Ratings. His difference is a -6.9, which is a significant indicator in what type of season we had.
Lets move on to the slow and steady Christian Beyer. As untalented as he was, he was arguably our best player on the floor. He was the only player on the roster with a positive difference between his Offensive and Defensive rating by scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions, while only giving up 112.7, to give him a 4.1 differential. This is the sad indicator that Christian probably should have seen a lot more time on the court but came down to Buzz having to make the decision to prioritize the development of his young talent rather than stick a mediocre talent on the floor for longer periods of time. Beyer had an equal .83 win share per 40 minutes to Smith, and these two were far and away higher than the rest of the squad here, with the next win share coming in at .032.
Now I want to focus on the other two "big men" in Henry and Pierce. Both have dreadful offensive ratings, and were likely closer than many of us would have expected considering how often we cited Henry for his offensive woes. Henry has an 86.4 points scored per 100 possessions compared to Pierce, who managed 90 points per 100 possessions. The difference here is that Henry has a team best defensive rating at 107.8 points given up per 100 possessions while Pierce gave up 117.3 points per 100 possessions. Almost 10 more points given up by Pierce is painful to deal with and the fact that as big men, you are expected to be closer to a 1 to 1 ratio of ratings, it shows how poor we were inside. Only Beyer in the positive and Smith at the -6.9 were within -17.8 points in regards their Offensive and Defensive Ratings.
The other painful statistic, as was noted by many, was the fouls, where Pierce averaged 2.7 fouls per 13.8 mpg. He averaged essentially a foul for every eight possessions on the court. That's essentially fouling out at the 2/3rd mark per game since Tech averaged 65.9 possessions per game this season. Henry was getting 1.7 fouls per 10.3 mpg, or about one foul per ten possessions. Are there plenty of reasons or ways to try to justify these? Sure, regardless though it's a glaring statistic.
To give you an idea of the other end of the spectrum, especially inside, Duke's Jahlil Okafor this season had a 118.9 Offensive Rating and a 101.2 Defensive Rating, so he scored 18.7 more points than he gave up per 100 possessions essentially. Are these stats the end all be all of proficiency? No, but they are fairly accurate and give you a decent idea of how poorly we played on the defensive side of the ball. Of Dukes nine players that played consistently, their worst Defensive Rating was Grayson Allen at 109.5, but his offensive rating was a 132.1, so still over a 20 point positive rating difference. The worst difference on their roster was a 6.5, which is better than our best by Christian Beyer. I know that Duke is an extreme example but it shows you what we need to strive for to be competitive with the best in the conference.
As we close out our look back, lets spend a few moments evaluating all the guards not named Smith. Hudson was the biggest liability of the group in terms of turnovers, giving the ball away 6.8 times per 100 possessions, as a group, the average was over 4 per 100 possessions, saying that as a team, we gave away over 20 possessions per 100. 1/5th of the time we had the ball, we gave it back to the other team. That's a really painful number. Wilson, Hill and Smith were the monster minute eaters, playing almost 1000 minutes each this season. Hill and Muller both finish the season shooting less than 40% from the field, somewhat effected by their tendency to shoot from outside but still not acceptable for guards in the ACC in my opinion. Last but not least, we shot a dreadful 64% from the free throw line as a team this season, good for 330th in the Nation out of around 346. There are 22 categories of data in the site I am using and offensively we finished 12th or worse in the conference in 16 of those 22. Defensively, we finished 12th or lower in 13 out of 22 categories. Not all that surprising but still another little kick in the gut at the end of the day.
Looking Forward
Plenty of speculation about who is going where and who is leaving first. I will start with what I see our starting lineup being next season at least to begin with.
I would expect to see the lineup to start looking similar to this:
1 – Seth Allen
2 – Adam Smith
3 – Zach Leday
4 – Kerry Blackshear
5 –Satchel Pierce
The second lineup I envison for this squad is:
1 – Justin Robinson
2 – Ahmed Hill
3 – Justin Bibbs
4 – Shane Henry
5 – Kerry Blackshear
You could essentially fill the 1 position with one of 4 players, considering the possibility of Allen, Robinson, Hudson and Wilson. Of this group, I believe Wilson is the most likely to leave in the off season.
At the two, you have the group of Hill, Clarke, Smith, and possibly Bibbs.
At the three, I think the rotation will consist of Leday, Bibbs, and Muller. Muller I think is the most likely to leave the team as his playing time is coming close to an end barring injuries.
The four and five will likely feature a rotation of Pierce, Henry, Blackshear and Leday. I do not foresee any of these transferring or not showing up. If one of the guards transfers out, than I believe Buzz will find a way to close on Levi Cook and he could instantly have an impact on the lineup, really solidifying Leday and Bibbs alternating the three spot because Henry and Blackshear could alternate the four and Pierce and Cook would be at the five. No more height discrepancy across the board.
I believe Wilson is the most expendable with his position at the one mainly due to the versatility that Muller showed Buzz defensively towards the end of the conference slate. I also think Muller is the most likely to leave because he will have better options whereever he might find.
Edit for Clarity:
Lineups above are who I would expect to see as a Buzz starting lineup. As for minute played per game:
Allen - 24-28
Smith - 24-28
Bibbs - 20-25
Hill - 20-25
Pierce 16-20
Hudson 16-20
Blackshear 10-15
Robinson 8-12
Clarke - 10-15
Leday 10-15
Henry 10-15
The rest of the minutes
Muller
Wilson
Cook
These minutes will likely be effected by size/speed of opponent, style of play, foul troubles, and who is or isnt in Buzz Beehouse for not putting in work.
Comments
Wait, you think this will be the starting five?
1 – Seth Allen
2 – Adam Smith
3 – Zach Leday
4 – Kerry Blackshear
5 –Satchel Pierce
I think its very possible that Buzz goes to a lineup exactly like this. There are of course going to be variations from Buzz. Buzz utilized 13 different starting lineups this season is what Hokiesports says and I was surprised it was that few. Do I think that the floor is always going to look this way? Of course not, Buzz in year two is still not going to be in a position where he doesnt have to utilize his entire roster. I expect that we will see all 13 players see the floor in each game but in terms of starting out, unless Buzz is looking to run a team early, this lineup gives us the size and speed to match most ACC lineups at least in the beginning of a game. Which of these five give you the most pause seeing them on the floor? The slot that seems the most easily argued to me is the 3, between getting a bigger bodied Leday out there versus a stronger shooter in Bibbs. Again though, this is to start the game. That doesnt mean that at the end of 40 minutes you wont see Bibbs, Hudson and Hill each have 20+ mpg. Buzz has shown quite often he will sit players early to get a flow for the game or to match against inferior opponents at the first substitution so that Tech has an advantage that can lead to a run. Most of Tech's scoring runs usually come between the 8-13 minute marks of each half.
Hill started the last 30 games in a row. Hill and Allen are the easiest two to write in the starting lineup. After that, you can debate Hudson vs. Smith at the other guard spot (or I'm thinking it may eventually be Robinson + Allen). You can try to sort out the cluster that is the 4/5 spots.
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think that – while fun – the exercise of predicting Starting 5's for next season is not particularly constructive. As you mention above, Buzz likes to change things up, rotate his players and find grooves. He doesn't settle on consistent line-ups because of how they tend to be dictated by match ups, game flow and chemistry (among other things). I think Buzz has proven that those who start the game are hardly indicative of who plays the most minutes over the 40 or during crunch time.
which is why I edited the main post to include who I think will see what amount of playing time. That trends more towards what these other posts seemed to be looking for.
I do think that the starting lineups do play a role for discussion though, as most of the fans seem to think that Buzz will continue utilizing a four guard rotation as his primary lineup. I dont think that will be true. There are too many situations from this season that showed how difficult this made it for our team to compete, especially on the defensive end when our opponents put in three bigs to work the glass and get easy layups that we couldnt contest.
My mistake, then. I had read the write-up soon after you originally posted it and then came back to comment later based on the discussion. I felt like we were talking in circles.
So did I, which prompted me to add that section above to bring us back from all that spinning.
Exactly what I thought when I first read it. No way Bibbs doesn't start, let alone with Leday at the 3. Leday is a 4/5, albeit very undersized, and will probably take a lot of those minutes that belonged to Beyer. He is the type of player Beyer would have been with more athleticism. He will hustle, he can bang down low and has a soft enough touch he can contribute a steady 6 ppg with the occasional double digit game.
Seth Allen and Adam Smith are the exact same height and are both 6' if lucky. I don't see Buzz having them on the floor at the same time much unless we are in desperate need of scoring. Of course, Buzz is Buzz so you never quite know what is going on in his mind.
A lot of what happens for the incoming freshmen depends on what happens with transfers. If everyone stays pat, I could see Robinson and Clarke getting a lot less minutes than people think and Blackshear playing and eventually getting the occasional start simply because there isn't much in post players. If Wilson/Mueller/whoever else does indeed leave, Buzz will surely go after Cook or any other big he could get to allow him to play a more traditional set. As it stands now though, I would expect to continue to see long stretches of the game in a 4 guard set.
Just curious, why did you leave Hudson and Clarke out of your two lineups? I would be kind of surprised to see Hudson see less playing time in favor of guys like Blackshear, Robinson and LeDay
I don't understand those two lineups. My guess on distribution looks like this:
1: Allen (25'), Robinson (15')
2: Hudson (25'), Allen (5'), Smith (10')
3: Hill (25'), Clarke (15')
4: Bibbs (25'), Clarke (5'), LeDay (5')
5: Pierce (15'), Blackshear (10'), LeDay (10'), Henry (5')
That would leave us with Allen (30'), Hudson (25'), Hill (25'), Bibbs (25') as our core with Clarke getting 20'. I may be the most excited about Robinson, who looks really, really good to me and may push for a lot of minutes. I would like to keep Mueller because he can add solid minutes at numerous spots, I just have a hard time finding him minutes.
I would have to guess that you missed what I said about Smith above. That as much as he had some defensive liability this season, his offensive performance far outweighed it this season. I can not foresee him only playing 10 minutes as long as he has the ability to shoot the three from anywhere on the court. Buzz is too much a numbers guy to ignore it, and thats a big reason why Smith played the second most minutes of any player on the roster this season at 986 minutes played. Only Devin saw the court more at 990 minutes. Buzz isnt all of a sudden going to turn him into a three point specialist role player because he added a couple more guards.
Bibbs is not going to play at the four spot now that Buzz has the size to keep him in the two or three role. Clarke I cant see at the four either. I also think that Blackshear may become the most important freshman on the roster, similar to how Hudson started to outshine Hill and Bibbs. I do expect to see alot of time where the four and five spots have a quasi prototypical ACC player in them, be it combos of Pierce and Blackshear, or Blackshear and Leday, Henry and Blackshear. Blackshear has the offensive game that the other three "bigs" have been missing. He has range from outside the arc all the way to the rim so is a constant threat to score. That said, he is also a freshman, so I dont see Buzz playing him or Clarke more than 15 mpg until they prove they can handle more. One of the biggest things we talked about this year is how teams out-heighted us, but if the lineup plays out with Bibbs and Clarke at the four spots, then we are going to go through another season completely short again since the typical ACC four is somewhere in the 6'9 to 6'10 range.
Robinson of all three freshmen is going to have the most to prove. If no one leaves, than I think he starts this season at best third option to the point, worst fourth. I think we will see Buzz utilizing Allen as his primary, getting 24-28 mpg, and then Wilson/Hudson/Robinson to fill the rest of the game. If Wilson is gone, it likely means Buzz brings in Levi Cook, which would then cut down time for Leday and Henry to see the floor is what I would expect. It would possibly move Robinson to the 2nd option if he can prove he wont turn it over as much as Hudson has.
We just have different opinions on Blackshear and LeDay. Blackshear looks like Diakete to me. Limited offensively, good physicality. Better to start his career at <10'. LeDay may have good skills, but he doesn't strike me as a game changer. It will be interesting to see how physical he plays. Is he a a Euro style, more comfortable on the perimeter?
So I don't foresee a traditional post upgrade that will get us away from the 4guard lineup. Thus, Bibbs and Clarke at the 4.
If Robindon can defend, he's going to force his way into mins.
As my comment above states, these are who I project to see start games. I am not suggesting that these players might be the most played. As for Hudson seeing less time versus those other three, I dont see Hudson competing with Blackshear and Leday for time because they have strongly different roles. Robinson and Hudson could end up being direct competition or Hudson could be competing with the group slotting into the two and three roles. Buzz is very fluid with his personnel, its just with this group he will have better opportunity to keep the necessary size on the floor when an opponent puts two or more big men out there. If they go to more, you could also see Buzz put out a complete five guard set to try to run them out of the gym. Thats the flexibility that comes with having Blackshear at 6'9, 220 lbs and Leday at 6'7, 235 lbs (number before he came to Tech.) I did anticipate a small amount that Buzz will return to playing freshmen less than upperclassmen in positions where he has depth, ie Clarke playing less than Bibbs or Hill. I can foresee Bibbs and Hill getting 22-24 mpg, while Clarke sees the floor for 12-15 mpg, at least in the beginning.
I like this line up
1-Allen
2-Hill
3-Bibbs
4-Clarke
5-Pierce
Hudson off the bench for Hill. Henry/Blacksher/LeDay in for Clarke or Bibbs (moving Clarke to 3) for a taller lineup if needed. Pierce needs to work his tail off in the weight room. Adam Smith comes in situational. This is assuming everyone stays which might not be the case.
yeah, i can see this or something pretty close to this.
With this team i see Buzz using a smaller lineup. I just do not seeing Leday taking the 3 spot, but you are right, if there is attrition before the last '15 signing day then I see Buzz going ham after Levi. I think Buzz is going to experiment a lot just like this year with his line-ups. I see something along the lines of (assuming Mueller and Smith are gone):
1 - Seth Allen
2 - Ahmed Hill
3 - Justin Bibbs
4 - Kerry Blackshear
5 - Satchel Pierce
6. Jalen Hudson - Rotating at the 2.
7. Chris Clarke - Rotating 2 & 3
8. Justin Robinson or Devin Wilson - behind Seth Allen at the 1. Not sure yet who would win out in my mind.
9. Zach Leday - Rotating 3 and 4
10. Shane Henry - Rotating between 4 and 5 (when we go small).
I guess I am in the minority but I dont see why Smith has any reason to leave. Where is he going to go that he will see the playing time that Buzz gave him? Almost 1000 minutes this season, I would expect slightly less next season but not by much. Unless a ton of these other guards really increase their offensive efficiency or drastically improve defensively than Smith was and is our best option at guard right now. Smith has a chance to showcase himself enough to get a shot like Jarell Eddie if he stays put, transferring might put him somewhere he might see better team success but wouldnt see the floor as much. His ability to hit that three is something NBA scouts drool over because of how the NBA has changed. We could of course log in tomorrow to see he is gone but I just dont see it happening. Wilson or Muller would seem much more likely as they stand to lose significant playing time, especially if Robinson can outplay Wilson.
I will probably be wrong about Smith. It's just a hunch and I have no logical reasoning to back it up. He played the most minutes and was our most consistent deep threat; however, he is a liability on defense and he isn't the typical size for a SG. I just see his minutes going down. No way he is close to 30 like he was this year.
VT was 258th in defense last year. I know this doesn't fall on Smith alone, but I would think Buzz elevates this when evaluating who gets more minutes next year. That's why I prefer Hill (who continues to improve with ball handling). He can shoot and has insane effort on D. Started 30 games in a row. I don't see him being left out of the starting line-up.
Let's resume this conversation in a few months and see how things play out before preseason starts.
Thanks as always for your analysis, Rob!
Defensive Rating per 100 possessions
Henry 107.8
Beyer 112.7
Muller 113.2
Pierce 117.3
Bibbs 117.9
Hudson 118
Wilson 118.3
Hill 119.3
Smith 120.8
Johnston 120.9
Offensive Rating per 100 Possessions
Beyer 116.8
Smith 113.9
Johnston 101.1
Wilson 100.5
Hill 98.6
Bibbs 97.7
Muller 95.3
Pierce 90
Hudson 89.7
Henry 86.4
Comparing these two ratings, it essentially says that Smith will score 15.3 more points per 100 possessions than Hill will, and give up only 1.5 more points that Hill defensively per 100 possessions. That said, both are still top five in scoring using this rating and bottom five defensively so not exactly the combination you are looking for from either of them.
But if Hill is one of your better (if not best) defenders, wouldn't you be placing him on the best perimeter threat? I am assuming not so much for Smith. These numbers do not tell the whole story.
It's just the fallout of adding Seth Allen (a scoring PG) and the presumed maturation of Hudson. Smiths mins may not directly be eaten up by Allen, but indirectly, Allen reduces the need to have Smiths poor defense on the court for scoring. Small sample, but smith lost PT the last 3 or 4 games.
I'm not sold on Hudson (can't shoot), so I can foresee him not earning those mins night to night and smith playing 20.
I wouldn't put Smith on the likely list. The question is how much can you put Allen and Smith on the floor at the same time? If you can, then you have two big time 3 point shooters. But there are going to be games where having them both out there very much will be difficult. Allen is the better point guard and better defender so Smith is probably going to lose a little time, but as you say, probably not a lot. Does he want to go to a tournament team? Does he have a lady friend somewhere else? Is there a desirable grad program other than VT? He probably can do what he wants. He seems to like Buzz and I hope he stays.
I have Mueller and Wilson as the prime guys on the bubble. Wilson could lose half his minutes, easy. He gives you little to nothing off the ball. Mueller is a role player.
With Allen, Smith, Hill, Hudson, Bibbs, and Clarke you have 6 guys you can run in and out at 3 or 4 slots and really, any one of them can get you points. With everyone healthy, Wilson is at best the backup to Allen. Robinson could take most of that away as the season progresses. Mueller is seemingly behind everyone above.
Henry? As I said in another thread, if he was happy this year, he'll be happy next year. Otherwise, he could move on.
clarke isn't going to have the shooting, nor the dribble ability to play a lot of guard.
I do not see Smith or Leday getting the kind of minutes you are saying, Leday was not all that impressive at USF and Smith's time will decrease just because of better talent on team and I don't believe he will take minutes away from Bibbs or Hudson.
i expect clarke, for numerous reasons, some political will start at the 4 in a small ball lineup. he'll be the slasher, energy guy. as i said on another thread. a friend who is a hc at a rival h.s. thinks he is closer to 6'7" than 6'5" wouldn't surprise me to see blackshear start at some point in the season too.
I'd be very happy if Clarke is 6'6" or better. I wasn't sure he was north of 6'4". But yes, I also think he is the likely 4 in a small ball lineup.
When he was here for a game he certainly did not look north of 6'4".
I don't see how Buzz can keep Hill off the court. The kid works his butt off on both ends of the court. I look for a big improvement from him this year. If blackshear and LeDay have any skill at all I don't see how Henry gets on the court outside of foul trouble. I see the lineup as:
1: Seth Allen, Wilson/Robinson off the bench
2: Ahmed Hill Adam Smith/ Mueller off the bench
3: Justin Bibbs Hudson/ Clarke off the bench
4: Zach Leday Blackshear/ Henry off the bench
5: Satchel Pierce Blackshear/ Cook (if he signs)
ofcourse buzz will play musical chairs with the lineup so we are all probably wrong
It's hard for me to envision a scenario where Bibbs is not a starter at the beginning of the season. Aside from the stretch where he was returning from the concussion, I thought he was one of our most consistent players and his ball handling was better than Hill's and Hudson's IMO.
From watching highlights, it seems that Chris Clarke is a similar player to Hill, which I think is great. Very high energy guys, slashers. In an ideal world, Pierce will improve a lot and be able to log more minutes without fouling and be more effective; while Blackshear will really show of. He has the perfect size to be a 4 playing next to Pierce.
As hard a worker as WIlson is, he is just not effective enough offensively and turns the ball over too much. On this year's roster, we didn't have a better alternative. I hope Seth Allen and Justin Robinson can bring that.
LeDay looks like he could be a real player for us, just found a highlight video from his time at USF, he looks like a really underrated big man.
Note that 95% of those highlights are faceup/perimeter or fast break plays. He hasn't shown a history if being a traditional post player. That's fine, but just means another year where we play a point-3wings-post lineup. It doesn't matter who the 2-3-4 are, they will have similar responsibilities. This lineup will respond to our talent but we will still be smaller than probably all ACC opponents.
Definitely a good point, but at worst we're looking at an upgraded Beyer type of player. Maybe not ideal, but still better than this year.
It doesn't matter what Leday's offensive style is as long as he can play defense and rebound. Of course he needs a bit of offensive game posting up on the block isn't going to be something he is relied on for.
Also I think the writing on the wall points to Wilson and Mueller leaving and two new forwards/recruits coming in. That means a lot more 3 guard / 2 forward lineups.
LeDay may turn out great but his stats at USF were not impressive, 3.5 points and 2.6 rebounds his last season. Hopefully,Buzz sees something that his numbers do not show.
i know Leday's stats at USF weren't all that impressive, but I've heard in multiple places on internet boards that Buzz and staff have been very impressed with his play in practice
This is pretty encouraging. He may or may not be as good on the defensive end as a guy like Henry, but he'll definitely be an offensive upgrade over Henry and Beyer, which should really help with Buzz's goal of getting paint touches to either score or set up other scorers.
Biggest takeaway from that video for me: UCF's court is atrocious
Also, LeDay has a pretty nice jumper
I think you are overvaluing Levi Cook. He's overweight and unathletic albeit crafty around the basket. His vertical appears to be about 4 inches. To me he appears a guy like many bigs who needs some time to develop and I wouldn't rely on him for much. That's ignoring he hasn't even committed.
Not sure how you think I am overvaluing someone that I dont expect to see any meaningful playing time. If you look at where I put him, its splitting whatever minutes might be remaining to him, Muller, or Wilson. He does appear to have a better offensive game than Pierce but that's not hard to do. The one freshmen that I think has the potential to make a big impact next season is Blackshear.
I agree based on the film I've seen. He'd have a hard time displacing Pierce who has some very good low post moves, and at 7-0 250 he can be a beast as a low post scorer. The flashes I saw this year stood out. If the team had made a commitment to get him the ball, vs using him almost exclusively as a high post screener, the opinion of him as a scorer would be a lot higher.