I know a lot of our attention for next year's schedule has been focused on the defending National Champs, and deservingly so, but Georgia Tech is one game that I'm just as nervous about, if not more, than Ohio State and here's why...
Each year, the GT/VT game is always a "chess match" between Foster and Johnson. Foster will come up with some new way to defend the triple option and Johnson will tweak his offense slightly to compensate, and it goes back and forth. I believe Foster has done an amazing job so far with the pain of game planning for the triple option. Arguably better than anyone since Johnson has been in Atlanta.
However, no matter what new schemes Foster designs, they always have 2 main objectives:
1. Take away the dive
2. Make the QB keep the ball and punish him until he gets exhausted, which increases the likelihood of a QB mistake/turnover in the second half
This has usually worked in years past because the QB hasn't been the most dangerous player on the GT offense. This year is different because Justin Thomas is the real deal. (I know he played last year but it was his 4th game ever with the triple option, and unfortunately we still lost) This year, we play GT in November and Thomas will have close to 2 years of experience at that point. Thomas is the type of player Johnson has been needing to lead his offense and silence the critics of the triple option. Don't believe me? Go watch the replay of the Orange Bowl last year.
So I wanted to see what all of your thoughts were because the Foster method of defending the triple option might be a double edged sword this year. Do you think Foster will stay true to his philosophy or will he pull out another unorthodox, yet successful, plan from his bag of defensive goodies that will limit the QB from carrying the ball as much?
Comments
Maybe send a Fuller leaping through the line, or stretching the run from sideline to sideline resulting in no gain?
Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 4: Profit
Step 5 :
Maybe I am wearing some seriously thick O&M glasses but I think our depth at DT and athleticism on the outside may be our best ever against them (barring injuries). Corey Marshall with cause at least one turnover and HouseBrew will throw more yards than they run for = easy(ish) win.
Love the optimism, but I have no reason to think that GT won't be damn good next year. Thomas is a stupid good TripOpt QB.
They graduate seven RBs, Broderick Snoddy is coming back from a gruesome injury, and the guy after him only got 16 carries.
Their two leading WRs are graduating and the next two up only caught eight passes between them last year.
Those are thirteen reasons as to why they just might take a few steps back. Thomas is good, but an option QB is only as good as, well, his options.
GT was being touted as perhaps second to last in the Coastal last year due to all the lost starters and injuries. They came out and play well above what people expected. Just because they are losing RBs doesn't mean that they don't have guys that can fill in and by the time we play them, the starts will have many snaps of experience.
GT didn't lose nearly as many starters on the offensive of the ball before '14. Sims and Godhigh graduated, but Laskey and Snoddy got quite a bit of playing time behind them. Vad Lee transferred, but he was already losing snaps to Justin Thomas. So they returned almost their whole offense but with a new QB, just like Logan Thomas's first year as a starter in '11. (For the record, I have no idea of who they lost on defense before last season.)
I don't think that GT will fall back as hard as we did in '12 when we returned Thomas but lost Coale, Boykin, and Wilson. But again, as I said, seven RBs and one recovering from a badly broken leg. Their starters in '15 will be the guys that were 3rd- and 4th-string (or not even on the team) in '14. They'll have more experience when we face off in week 11, as you say, but I don't predict any of their B-backs to be nearly as dangerous as Days and Laskey. Not even close.
I don't think their offense will be as effective in 2015 if only because their offense in 2014 was THE MOST EFFICIENT OFFENSE IN RECORDED HISTORY
http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2014/12/16/7403711/gt-high-school-offen...
They finished the season with an offensive efficiency rating of .999, smashing the previous record held by RG3's Baylor squad (.865). Will they top that number? I seriously doubt it. Are they going to all of a sudden plummet into an average offense? Hell no. They will take a step back but will probably still be in the top 20 of most efficient offenses in the country.
Please, sir, do not interject facts and reality into our fantasy world. We just KNOW we'll be better and beat 'em. Dammit.
I recognize that advanced statistics can be useful, but I'm going to use the eye test on this one. The 2014 gt offense was not the most efficient offense of all time. We absolutely dominated them on that side of the ball, and duke forced 3 turnovers in the second half and held them to 25 at home. In this case, the numbers lie.
My eye test will have to disagree with yours. I've seen Tech dominate an offense before and that is not what happened against GT in 2014. The Georgia Tech offense was really, really good this year but because it's not a high-paced offense and doesn't have the same number of snaps as other schemes it doesn't get the respect it deserves.
As far as the Duke game, no offense has had a perfect season. Heck, RG3's offense was held to 24 points in a game despite having 105 plays (which means GT's offense worse day > Baylors worse. GT 25 points on 72 snaps). If you don't think the GT offense was the most efficient offense of all time that's fine, but you'd have to use a different definition of efficient than Football Outsiders.
My definition of an efficient offense would be lots of production (yards and points) with little waste (punts and turnovers). Speaking to my eye test, I would say the 05 USC offense was the best and most efficient offense I have ever seen. I looked up some of their stats, and they scored 49.1 points/game; they gained 579.8 yards/game on 77.4 plays/game (7.5 yards/play). They had 17 turnovers and 33 punts.
GT in 2014 scored 37.9 points/game; they gained 477 yards/game on 72.7 plays/game (6.6 yards/play). They had 18 turnovers and 32 punts (note: they played one more game than USC).
Admittedly, I should have used TDs/drive, turnovers/drive, and punts/drive, but I can't find total offensive possessions for USC. Looking at those stats, I would say that I still agree with my eye test. I would also say that perhaps I did undervalue GT's efficiency; those are some really good numbers. Also, I don't know how good or bad the defenses were that USC played that year.
I believe that's about all of the statistics I can bring to this debate; don't know if anyone else wants to chime in. And I completely respect your opinions, Mason.
And I yours
The rating that football outsider uses takes into account "actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position" (emphasis mine). What that means... I'm not sure. I assume it means that an offense that gets a touchdown after starting on their 20 gets a higher rating than an offense that gets a touchdown after starting on their opponents 40. Presumably, great offenses with bad defenses would have an advantage because the offenses would have the "advantage" of those extra field position points... maybe that's why Baylor had the record before GT. USC had a pretty good defense that year, so that probably hurt their efficiency rating.
That's enough logic out of you, sir!
We lost last year because Brewer gave the game away with three picks. So I'm more concerned over how Lefty is going to scheme for GT.
Brewer did throw three picks, which were huge, but the play calling in the fourth quarter was atrocious. Kept on passing when we should have been running to run out the clock. Loeffler had just as much to do with that loss.
Yup. That's kind of what I was trying to say.
And don't forget about all of the pre snap penalties. How many illegal substitutions did we have?
10 times more penalties than fans at UVA's spring game.
10 times 0 is still 0.
Damn, you're right.
bud fosters d gave up 375 yards last year and 250 on the ground. im sure the lowest for GT all year. and only 14 points. you cant ask for much more. that should be enough to give you a win 9 out of 10 times. they just got the 1. but that rest on the offense not on the D.
I...
Yes. I agree with you. That's what I was trying to say but apparently did a really bad job of it.
For clarification, I place almost all the blame for the loss last year on the offense. Brewer for throwing three really badly timed picks, Lefty for being pass happy with the late game play calling.
I don't know...
Brewer did throw that awful pick, and there was questionable play calling + stupid procedural penalties on the offense...
BUT, if the defense plays assignment football on 4th and really freaking long at the end of the game, we're not having this discussion.
But I can't personally fault the D for giving up a long play on one snap, because against GT that can happen on literally any snap. The last thing you ever want to do is put the entire game on the shoulders of the defense and say it's up to them to get a stop. Yeah it sounds awful to say we couldn't stop 4th and 15, but all it takes is one guy fucking up an assignment and the QB or B back finding the edge and it can happen any time.
Leg for profane emphasis with which I totally agree. Offense didn't win it.
Mattie Ice?
Sorry, should have clarified. I can fault the defense for fucking up one snap against GT. It's a totally different kind of defense we play against them, and by nature we have to be a little more bend but don't break than we usually are.
Step 1. Start Teller
Step 2. Start Gallo
Step 3. Run the offense
I'm not saying Teller and Gallo are the magical solution to all of our problems up front, but they're upgrades over who we had last year during the GT game. Add in Brewer actually knowing what the heck is going on, and we should see something closer to what we saw in 2013. A close, fairly low-scoring game which we control for pretty much the whole time,
step 1, play your assignment
step 2, maintain leverage
if Mississipi State had done those 2 things they would have stopped several of those big plays for little gain.
If you line up with the same defensive assignments throughout the game, PJ is going to drop 50 on you.
For example, let's say the defense plays their assignments perfectly on first down. Thomas gets through his first two reads and sees the DE take the fullback, the OLB come for him, and he pitches to the back who gets tackled for no gain by the Safety. Next play, defense lines up the same way with the same assignments but this time PJ has his playside A-back cut block the safety that made the tackle on first down.
Thomas goes through his reads again... DE takes FB, OLB takes Thomas, Thomas pitches to the back... Who has the A-back now? Not the safety, he got cut already. Not the MLB, the offensive tackle cut him when he left the defensive end unblocked. Unless your corner defeats his block, your only hope is that your backside safety is fast enough to make it all the way to the sideline in time to prevent a touchdown, but even if he is he's not going to have the leverage to prevent a 7-10 yard gain at least. And if your safety gets caught up in all the bodies or he takes a bad angle or he just straight whiffs on the tackle?
PJ is the best tactician in the game, which just goes to show that actual coaching can only get you so far. Getting the right players matter. If PJ was working with the same quality of athlete as the other top offensive schools he'd be contending for national championships year after year.
Wasn;t trying to say that each player has the same assignment every down... just that they actually need to play their assignments. MSU was all over the place, usually in the wrong place.
Oh for sure, but it can be pretty difficult to play your assignments when you have a ton of different keys and different assignments against the same formation.
My point was that there is no silver bullet to defending PJ's offense, the only thing you can do is put together a solid plan and hope your players out execute the offense. No one, including Foster, is going to be able to scheme the flexbone into the ground.
Have they ever put up more than their season average against us since PJ took over?
*checking cfbstats.com*
All figures rounded.
2008 - 278 against us, 273 season average
2009 - 309 against us, 295 season average
2010 - 346 against us, 323 season average
2011 - 243 against us, 316 season average
2012 - 192 against us, 311 season average
2013 - 129 (!!!!!) against us, 299 season average
2014 - 250 against us, 342 season average
Interestingly enough, they started doing worse against us once Tyrod left. I have no idea what that means, but it's a weird correlation.
Thank you for this!
I really think it's just coincidental timing about Tyrod leaving. Bud finally figured out how to defend them. We've pretty much owned them since.
2009 season, GT went to the Orange Bowl and got dusted by Iowa. During the offseason that year, Coach Bud went to visit Iowa.
That's not coincidental.
This is a fact that did not go unnoticed by those of us with Hawkeye spouses.
From what I understand about the triple option, what causes teams the most amount of trouble is the lack of time to adjust to it - it's a radically different scheme that requires players to learn a whole new set of assignments, and if they don't get the opportunity to rehearse, then it's likely that glaring mistakes to be made.
I think you can see this from last year's game - VT had just finished playing against an air-raid-centric team (ECU), and in my opinion was still feeling the effects of a very physical OSU game. Young players had make a complete 180 change in their defensive scheme in less than a week, and GT took advantage of it.
Between this year's game being on a Thursday, giving the team an extra half-week to prepare, and individual players being more mature and savvy, I have a lot more confidence in the team's ability to adapt and overcome.
I disagree. I don't feel we got beat last year because we were ill prepared for the game schematically. We actually performed relatively well against their option game (100 less total yards and 10 less points than their season average, less ypa and ypc). We lost because of untimely turnovers and poor offensive sustainability.
I think it feels like we did poorly on defense because the previous year might be the most dominant performance we have ever had against GT, so anything after would feel like a let down.
Why doesn't GT wear navy uniforms more often? They are actually half decent looking. Much better than the rags Russell usually puts out for them.
And as for stopping GT: TRUST IN BUD
1. Don't let them convert 4th and 15
2. Don't let them convert 4th and 15
3. Don't let them convert 4th and 15
If Foster makes sure the defense executes these 3 things flawlessly, we will be just fine.
4. Don't play Enter Sandman on 4th and 15. It was cool against Miami, but please stop trying to kill it.
5. No Mission Accomplished shirts after any potential upsets.
Just to rub salt in the wound, we played it in the 4th quarter vs BC in 2007.
edit: too many words
and I was there for both, groan
Mattie Ice....Should have read farther down before my comment above.
I disagee, that 4 & 15 was incredibly exciting and the fans were soooo hype. If they don't convert that, we are here talking about how it wa one of the best moments of the season. I'm not a superstitious person, so I say keep on playing it.
Pretty much sums it up there.................
so, let me get this straight:
We're comparing
this guy......................................................To this guy?
Wow, I'm starting to agree that Thomas is a dangerous weapon. His Orange Bowl highlights were Vick-like. That TD run at 1:25 was SICK!
So here's what Foster does:
Take away the dive, use extra guys to contain Thomas and make him pitch it.
OR
Cause back-field problems at the mesh point by sending a Fuller and/or Clark and/or Clarke (Blitz every down). Guys will have to play press man coverage behind. Hopefully cause lots of false starts and confusion.
OR
Zone blitzes to confuse the blocking scheme and play patterns.
OR
Some combination of the above in the GT offense/ VT defense chess match.
Don't worry, Foster's got this.
Miss St defense is no Bud Foster defense.
Justin Thomas is a beast though.
Every time I read questions about "scheme" my mind thinks of this
Narf
Every "Are you pondering what I'm pondering?"
GT has major issues replacing a bunch of guys on O this year. Their line last year was pretty good, and had some experience.
DTU.
That is all.
I say if Bud brings the same gameplan and our QB doesn't hand deliver a couple pick 6s on a silver platter this time around, I like our chances of winning going away.
Playmaking DTs. Mason said there's no silver bullet to stopping PJ, but elite, disruptive DTs are the closest thing to it. You need all 11 guys playing their assignments on every single play, but if you don't have guys consistently blowing things up in the backfield, you've got no chance. Yes, Thomas is very dangerous. However, so long as we get our safety situation figured out and everyone stays healthy, the combination of Maddy and Marshall will give Bud a heck of an advantage.
I have heard Bud talk about this very thing. You have to get guys in the backfield and get off of blocks on the edge.
I almost feel sorry for other schools. I mean, who can their offensive linemen practice against who can realistically simulate the way our D line comes at them? We always talk about how Foster recruits a different breed of linemen so it's not likely other teams have the same type of athletes, much less the same caliber ones to practice against.
Slightly off-topic, but one of my GT friends quit watching last year's game early. He couldn't bear the thought of seeing his Jackets lose to us again. Later, when he saw the final score, he assumed ESPN had made a mistake. It wasn't until Monday when he started moaning about it at work that he finally realized GT won. Now I text him the score of every GT game just to make sure he's got it right, tee hee.
Some fan he is. lol
He's actually one of the better ones. You should see the Duke kid we work with . . . sigh. It's pretty funny when one of the few females in the place is practically begging these guys to pay attention to their own teams just so we'll have something important to discuss at lunch.
To be fair, I threw the remote and punched a wall when we turned it over on 4th versus nebraska in '09. Wasnt't till later I learned we won.
I mean sure, I regret not seeing the finish live, but watching your team actually lose can be excruciating.
I do enjoy watching it whenever I can now though...
I know Smelzer is gone. If the other big WR is gone, I'd expect to see Bud lean on Marshall-Maddy and Motuapuaka to stop the dive and then play 4-4 with Clark and Van Dyke teaming with DE's to take away QB and pitch. The rover will offset near Motuapuaka and be the scrape guy. Then play 3 deep behind it. I think the Bear front is flawed as an every down look because it isolates the edge/stand up OLB to the field side in a bad way.
IIRC, both big WR are gone. I remember seeing the other one (opposite Smelter) run at the Combine.
Probably something like this
Ahh Yes, the last time somebody in Atlanta wanted to fight a Battle of the Trenches.
always love a good history joke. leg!
The majority of their receivers are over 6 ft.
I think its their defense vs our offense. I feel our defense vs their offense as a push. Paul Johnson is very good at what he does, Bud Foster is very good at what he does. Both will win some plays, both will lose some.
we have the ability talent wise on offense. We will find out if we have the offensive coaching. I watched the replay and we should have won that game big time. Blocked Field goal, two first and goal situations, run the damn ball. Shai was hurting them with his vision and power. He should have had more carries.
Not sure if everyone saw this, but CJ Leggett (who was penciled in as their starting "B-Back") is out for the year:
I'm sure GT has plenty of depth, but this won't help their offense.
Prepare like he always has. GT has always struggled against our defense, next year shouldn't be any different.
One thing that plagued our last season's defense that isn't talked about as much is that they gave away huge plays when it hurt us the most. ECU's final drive, 4th and 15 against GT, Boston College's final drive, and the complete meltdown against Miami. Overall we had a great defense last year but crumbled in a lot of points when it mattered the most. Shut down on those and they have no chance against us.
I am pretty sure we hired a guy who played the Deathbacker position as a defensive quality coach. My guess is Bud has him show the LBs how it should be done and Bud leans back and scowls (the Bud foster version of smiling).