As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...
In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.
The Method
You should know by now that I wouldn't just come up with some subjective opinion list straight out of Buzzfeed. To add validity, and remove maroon and orange blinders, I'll take play-by-play data covering the past decade of Hokie football, and utilize a model developed by Matt Mills of Football Study Hall (he's a Bee but helped out here so let's forgive him) to calculate the odds of Virginia Tech ultimately winning at every point in the game. When you're 9-0 every play feels more important than when you're 5-4, but statistically speaking that doesn't make it so. From that, the odds of winning before each play, as well as after, are known and I can calculate how much any single play increased Virginia Tech's odds of winning.
This list counts down the plays that made a bigger impact on the odds of Hokie victory than any other of the past 10 years.
The fine print: I really, really wanted to modify the data to "correct" a certain call made in the 2011 Sugar Bowl. But ultimately I realized that such a list cannot include overtime, where both teams start with about a 50% chance of winning and in just a few plays win or lose. Those plays carry too much value given overtime rules and including them as "game-changing" would be pretty obvious and would overwhelm the list. So no Catch, and no overtime.
Similarly, some discretion was given on which plays got included. There are certain play types that carry great value but wouldn't be considered in the spirit of this...for example, kicking a 29-yard-field goal to break a tie with a minute to go may have great value, but isn't what you think of when you hear "game-changing plays".
The 10th-most Devastating Play: Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
Among the plays that come to mind when Hokie fans think of the most devastating, I can't imagine this isn't near the top of most lists, at least emotionally. Virginia Tech was down 17-0 after one quarter, and the overwhelmingly pro-VT crowd was subdued as it seemed Tech would deliver another let-down performance against a marquee opponent on a national stage. But the combination of Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams got the offense moving and the defense clamped down, and soon the game was within reach.
Halfway through the second quarter the Hokies took a 4-point lead and still held that lead when the Broncos got the ball with 1:47 left to play on what would almost certainly be their final drive. A few plays later they were knocking on the door, having driven to the 13-yard line. On 1st and 10 they took a shot for the end zone but came up incomplete. The stadium held their breath for every snap, hoping the worst wouldn't happen.
On 2nd-and-10, quarterback Kellen Moore fakes the handoff while taking a deep drop, and then fires across the middle for the end zone a second time. Only this time, Austin Pettis had found space behind the defense and the perfectly thrown ball came in where only he could catch it. Touchdown Boise State with only 1:09 to go.
Virginia Tech was unable to answer on their final drive and lost the game 33-30.
The 10th-most Dominating Play: Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
In the regular season, Boston College had narrowly defeated Virginia Tech in a game I don't really want to talk about right now, or really ever again. The loss cost the Hokies a realistic shot at playing in the national title game, an opportunity that has not presented itself again since. Virginia Tech would meet the Eagles again, however, in the ACC Championship Game.
Deadlocked at 16-16 midway through the fourth quarter and hoping to avenge the regular season loss, Virginia Tech faced a long 3rd-and-13 from the BC 24-yard-line. Given the way the Eagles had scored quickly in the waning minutes in the prior matchup, the Hokies desperately wanted a touchdown and not to settle for a field goal. Following the snap, Sean Glennon takes a short drop and pump fakes a shorter route...he then delivers a laser up the middle of the field, giving Eddie Royal a perfect lead in front of the end zone. Eddie leaps up to make the grab, falling backwards into the end zone with the ball. Touchdown Hokies.
Virginia Tech would go on to win the game 30-16.
Comments
from my vantage point at the boise state game, the way the play was designed and the first couple of steps by gouveia-winslow, i knew it was a TD well before he threw it. they must have known how he would react too ... wonder if that had been set up previously.
Words cannot express how excited I am for this series.
Ditto
Both excited and frustrated for obvious reasons. I guess including the devastating plays keeps us grounded (do I really have to re-live those?). I'll work hard to enjoy the dominating plays more than the devastating to tip my emotion scales as we see the entire series. Thanks!
Bitter sweet. But this is something I'll really look forward to. Good stuff Joel.
Great idea for a series.
Really looking forward to the rest of this series, but each time I relive one of the devastating plays, I'm going to be all:
Agreed. Statistics that could correlate with the percentage of chance to win the game could be profits of Blacksburg bars and Hokie fans testicle size (either swelling from the kick or from pride).
Joel could you put in the article the value of the % increase or decrease (i.e. 14%). Otherwise I will look forward to this like I do the tales of Dick Johnson. We may need to send out an APB for him, looks like some cronies may have chopped him down somewhere. I can't wait to see where Danny Coale's other "Catch" falls in as well as were Matt $*^&ing Ryan's play falls in (you probably should have waited 11 years after that play to do this list, still too soon).
I immediately thought of those two plays after reading this article. They have to be very high on this list
Good idea...I'll post them later once in back at a computer. To give an idea though, we're looking at about a 20% swin in win probability on a single play!
Here you go:
The Boise State TD lowered the odds of winning by 28.9%.
The Glennon-to-Royal TD raised the odds of winning by 27.3%.
So these are all going to be late game plays since the early plays don't swing win probability very much, that's too bad.
Sure...a list could be made of something like "Most Memorable Plays" but that's of course subjective. But without giving any spoilers, although you're generally looking late in a game the list includes many plays that are far from the last drive of the game. Stay tuned...
No where in my comment did I mention most memorable plays. I look forward to seeing any plays that were picked that weren't in the fourth quarter.
You're welcome to write a forum topic with anything else you think is interesting.
I might do that once the series is done, get an honorable mention list
Just curious...would you suggest a different ranking method, or think the method is good but want a list of "most thrilling" or something like that so the effect on the game is less important?
Not most thrilling. Picking plays from ones that statistically changed the likelihood of winning the game excludes plays in games that happened early but were still extremely impacting on the outcome because the weight of each play increases the less time there is left in the game. Take for instance the fumble returned for a touchdown in the Military Bowl. It happened so early in the second have that statistically speaking it had a lesser impact when really it all but guaranteed the win. Another example would be the the deep pass from Tyrod to Boykin at the end of the first half against Tennessee in the Peach bowl. It led to a field goal and we ran away with the game after that momentum swing. With only a three point swing the likelihood of winning the game would not have increased by a very large amount when in reality it was extremely important.
You make a good point but I believe, and Joel can correct me here if I am wrong in my understanding of statistics, that plays that occurred early in a game have less impact statistically simply because there is so much time left in the game for both sides to win. The time factor of plays late in the game would increase the statistical impact of said play's relevance. The less the time the greater the relevance the larger the statistical impact.
I think any play that happened in the first half would almost always have a low statistical score due to that time factor. Again I could be wrong.
Anyway, point taken but I think for the purpose of this Joel is putting in a load of work and as any statistician will tell you every metric has it's faults, which is why they set rules for analysis. So given the rules he is using the plays he finds should prove extremely interesting.
You are correct.
I'm not sure how you say a play earlier in the game had a big impact other than what I've done. In what way does it have a big impact? The only thing not quantified here would be a momentum swing, but it is highly debatable whether such a thing exists in any major way.
In any event, not every play in the series is a fourth quarter play but obviously you swing things generally more later in the game.
quantifying momentum shift would be quite a thing.
sidebar: How in the hell does Joel only have 600+ turkey legs?! give this man some love people.
Well what about that play around the end of the first quarter in the BC game above? That looks like a heck of a shift, even if I don't remember the play.
Put it this way...
In the 2004 USC game, that pass interference call, with over 4 and a half minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, it essentially cost us the game. We would have had 1st and 10 inside the 15 looking to go up 2 scores with USC absolutely on their heels in a defensive slugfest, and suddenly we're pushed back to our own 43 yard line for 1st and 20. USC finds momentum off that play and outscore us 17-3 the rest of the game to win 24-13.
How does a play like that rank out? Did it immediately and directly cost us the win, no. Did it cause a massive swing in momentum that inevitably cost us the game? Yes.
Similarly, I think of 2003 when we hosted Miami.
In particular, I recall the fake FG where they threw to a wide-open Kevin Everett who dropped the pass.
It was over for Miami after that.
Again, not quantifiable, but I would argue that that momentum shift won us the game.
FWIW, the chart of the BC game appears to show a play where the Hokie's likelihood to win drops about 30% early in the game. I'm guessing it was this one, where one of BC's linebackers manages to pull the ball out Tyrod's hands on an option and run it back for a TD:
Edit: I see TechHokie13 noticed the same thing
I would say DW's kick return (I believe it was him) against NCST in 2010 (I think...last year we played them with Russel Wilson) to open the second half was a game changer imo.
Now would be a good time for me to throw out that I have no intention of giving any spoilers away! You'll have to wait and see what made the list...
I think this series will be the epitome of bittersweet. Great idea though. Looking forward to reading and watching these plays.
This:
to this:
I love this! Great idea for a series.
Also entertained by the ticker on the BC play announcing Nebraska hiring Bo Pelini
"That was the 5th pre-snap penalty for Virginia Tech, today. That'll drive you crazy."
I heard this and thought, "WOOHOO!!! we made it to the 4th quarter with only 5 pre-snap penalties! If it was 2014, we'd have hit that mark by the end of the first possession."
That comment stuck out to me as well. It's been a big problem for a long time and it's a coaching issue. Hopefully it's gotten so bad that they've been forced to correct it. We will see.
That Boise St. touchdown was a real punch to the gut, but giving up that 71-yard touchdown run on 3rd and 1 right after we took the lead seemed like the kick in the groin from that game. If Lyndell Gibson fills the gap on that run and wraps up, the entire trajectory of that game (and likely the whole season) is way different.
God, yes. You could argue with a bunch of IFs, but I think that year was the only real chance they had of being in the MNC game since 1999. All they had to do was beat Boise, which would have prevented the next week from happening.
The next week DIDNT happen!!!!
It couldn't have happened because I was at the beach that weekend and who goes to the beach during football season!
I still think it wasn't fair for Fedex field to give the Bronco's a 17 point lead and start the game in the second quarter.
Wait... You sure you aren't talking about one of our games from this year? Cause it seems like it happened against that pest that Weaver scheduled to meet up against until further notice.
I'm still not over the garbage play call on third down immediately before the punt that gave them the ball for their winning drive. 3rd and 8 from our 33, 2:05 to go, Boise State has called their last timeout, so the clock will run after this play and get us down to 1:20 or so by the punt, about 1:14 after it for them to drive the length of the field with no timeouts since they need a TD down 4.
UNLESS STINESPRING CALLS A DAMN SHORT THROW TO THE SIDELINE THAT CAN BE PUSHED OUT SHORT OF THE STICKS OR EVEN WORSE, AS ACTUALLY HAPPENED, DROPPED! YOU GAVE A SENIOR QUARTERBACK WITH PLENTY OF WEAPONS FORTY-FIVE EXTRA SECONDS AND A MARGIN FOR ERROR/EXTRA VARIETY IN PLAY-CALLING WITH WHICH TO KILL US! AFTER A TIMEOUT TO THINK IT OVER AND ASSESS THE COMPETITIVE POSITION! HOW CAN YOU BE A PROFESSIONAL PAID FOOTBALL COACH AND DO THIS TO YOUR TEAM? FIVE YEARS LATER, THIS IS STILL INCORRIGIBLY STUPID!
I was thinking it was kind of a long pass down the sideline - either way, it was a very low percentage throw. I wanted nothing more than a Tyrod QB draw there - keep the ball in the hands of your best player, he could very possibly make a play and a first down that ends it, and if he doesn't the clock keeps moving. My wife has seen me angry at VT football a lot in the past 10 years, but never more so than after that game.
Yes. That will always stick out to me. Terrible time management at the end to give them the ball back
That particular play call leaves one wondering how Stiney EVER won a game as OC.
This game is one that still gets to me. We clearly had the better TEAM, but we somehow managed to give this game away from the sidelines. (The fake punt against Michigan comes to mind for some reason)
Edit: What made this game particularly painful was b/c I wanted us to beat them so bad after reading all summer on the bsu boards that they were going to destroy us, that Tyrod was not a good QB, etc.
Dang, it still hurts.
This series is going to rip my heart out all over again every time I read it. But I'm excited to see the rest of it. Although I never wish to speak of the Boise St. game ever again. Or attend fedex ever again
Can't wait for the Matt Ryan TD pass on Thursday night....only to be followed by Tyrod to Danny and Dyrell!
I'm waiting for the punt block that ECU executed at the neutral site game in Charlotte.
I had the worst combination of factors: hot day, noon start, hungover as hell, kick-in-the-balls style loss, followed by a long drive back home. I am done with remembering that play.
The part that got me the absolute most about that day was that it was supposed to be a neutral site game, but as soon as I stepped foot in BofA Stadium, it was very clear that it was anything but. That was an ECU home game in Charlotte that went out of its way to negate the 70-30 advantage the VT fanbase had in the stands. The PA guy was ECU's, all the jumbotron videos were from ECU, and I swear it sounded like sound was being pumped in while we were on offense. An all around bad day.
Not to mention it felt like it was 120 degrees in those stands. Tech alumni got horrible seating in that game. I was a silver hokie 8 fricking rows from the top in a corner.
There was now wind in that bowl stadium. What a brutal day.
Talk about a great game for your first VT game ever.... I swear I am cursed for first and last games.
The only good thing I remember about that day was Dave let the band take off our jackets, which apparently was a big deal, but I had no idea since I was only a freshman.
While that will probably be the play in that game, i think the onside kick we failed to recover was that impact play that costed us. Josh Morgan was right there when the ball was kicked to him and for what ever reason couldnt hang on to it. If he held on, the game was over.
BOOOOOOOOOOOONE (End of Eddie Royal touchdown)
Hells yeah! I was at that 2007 ACC championship here in Jax and losing my mind....suck it BC
who is this....i was class of 02, golf company
Nice editing on that first video, but I'm calling you out. We never played Boise St (or JMU).
I'm thinking that the FG block at the end of the Marshall game by Hopkins (I think) in the rain has gotta be near the top. They had an easy FG to win the game at the end of regulation, so they had to be at a high win probability. That was a great game.
I believe that was overtime and doesn't count here...pretty much all overtime plays are high-value plays.
Jarrett's interception to preserve the tie at the end of regulation perhaps? Since it was tied it probably didn't move the needle enough.
Along those lines, I wonder what the percentage is for the Auburn FG return for a TD in the Iron Bowl a couple years ago. It has to be at least 50% since the score was tied and Alabama would be slightly more likely to win since they were attempting a long FG.
I lay the blame on Saban for that one. Malzan flat out coached him since Saban didn't even think there would be a return so once Auburn's return guy made the cut at about the 30 There was no way Bama's line was going to catch him. Kick Bama Kick is now as famous as Punt Bama Punt in Auburn.
I got a big kick (no pun intended) out of Saban's insistence that 1 second be put back on the clock, and the lengthy review and everything, only to be followed by the entire situation blowing up right in his face as he watched his field goal team give up one of the longest plays in the history of football.
Hence the t-shirts, stickers, mug etc. sold at Auburn that simply say "Hey Bama, Got a second?" The look on his face when he realized what happened was priceless.
That's glorious. Absolutely glorious.
Awesome idea...when I get some time (and finish writing these) I'll pull the data. That one has to be huge!
my wife knows this of me all to well as this is pretty much how I am during every game until we have a sizeable lead....which hasn't occured very often lately......
I know which one is going to be #1 Devastating play. And already I want Matty Ice to go straight to hell.
Even more so was their coach, who was an arrogant ass anyways, dancing on the field after that. I wanted to knock him out. Glad he got fired for being a douche.
Coaches dancing after wins, you say?
I'd give him a slight pass on this one because it's at WVu...
I hated Matt Ryan as a college player... Then he was drafted to my NFL team and took us to the playoffs his first year. He still ruined our national championship hopes that year. That was also one of the games I've been unfortunate enough to attend in my life :(
It must be very bittersweet for you that he tends to lose postseason games, whether it be the NFL playoffs or the ACC Championship game
Hell, its carrying over to all parts of his game now. He even went full Matty Thaw in that last game against Carolina last year at home with the playoffs on the line.
Oof. Don't remind me. Then again, our whole team looked like they belonged in the garbage. Our defense couldn't stop them, and their defense just stymied Matt Ryan and co. Yes, Matt Ryan has seen some meltdowns before, but I don't think all of the playoff losses can be completely attributed to him. Our defenses during the Matt Ryan era have been average to league worst, and offensive line has never been consistently good from one year to the next. Just hoping Vic Beasley can at least get pressure on the quarterback this season. And that Matt Ryan leads the team to success. Fingers crossed
I was thinking this or the onside kick they recovered to set this up.
There are plenty of exciting plays to look forward to.
But there are some heartaches that cut too deep, once the scars have formed and the wounds healed, should remain so for eternity. I am not ready to face those demons just yet...too soon...always too soon.
But it is the offseason, so lets let the games begin.
Man, that Boise game made me reassess my fandom. So very very devastating. I had to change my whole outlook on shit.
Was there with wife and the oldest son who was -2 weeks at the time. So sad of a first Hokie experience...
Does -2 weeks mean he was 2 weeks before his birth?
I was kinda wondering the same. Lol
math
I am not sure I want to remember those devastating plays. Too many of them are already haunting my nightmares.
Blame Joe. He talked me into including them.
If it makes you feel any better, imagine having to read them repeatedly and sort them and find and watch a video clip of them and then write them up and you know what if you need me I'll be at the bar.
Yin and Yang....negative and positive....valley and mountain top. The world works this way, and it's a great idea for a series. But geez, I hate the feeling after reading the negatives.
As long as you continue to put the bad, before the good, I will find a way to survive by at least ending on a high note.
So, when are we getting the next one?
This is just a fantastic idea for articles. Well done Joe and Joel!
Didn't we fumble the snap the first or second play of the Boise game?
Are you kidding?....we pissed away the whole first quarter and gave them a 17pt lead.
....yeah...I know.....
The First play was a flea flicker that resulted in a PI call. Tyrod takes the snap, hands off to RW34 who runs up into the line and pitches back to Tyrod. Tyrod sees Boykin breaking open down the side and throws his direction. Boise's DB grabs Boykin to prevent the catch and is flagged for PI.
we got a PI call the first play then we fumbled the next snap
http://espn.go.com/ncf/gamecast?gameId=302490259&version=mobile#boxscore&src=desktop
I still blame the play all on third down with under 2 on on the clock a damn sideline deep ball! We had rmfw,big Darren Evans and DW. Not to mention TT I screamed run the ball. That midget Moore shoul have never seen the field again. end of rant.
What is this about?
Where the hell am I?
This is not my beautiful house. This is not my beautiful wife.
Fuck Matt Ryan
The one thing we forget about that Boise td was the atrocious late hit call earlier in the drive. Gotta keep them out but come on now. ..