As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...
In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.
For details on the method, see Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 10.
The Countdown
Most Devastating:
10. Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. Miami 11/4/2006 - Tyrone Moss rush for 50 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
Most Dominating:
10. Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
9. North Carolina 10/29/2009 - T.J. Yates pass intercepted by Rashad Carmichael at the North Carolina 10, returned for 5 yards to the North Carolina 5
The 8th-most Devastating Play: Boston College 11/2/2013 - Logan Thomas pass intercepted by Kevin Pierre-Louis at the VTech 33, returned for 33 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
Late in the 2013 season, Virginia Tech (then 6-2) was looking to bounce back after a disappointing home loss to Duke. The usually excellent Hokie defense had been getting dominated by Eagles' running back Andre Williams all day, but the Tech offense had stayed in the game and with minutes to go in the fourth quarter took the ball tied 20-20. By draining some of the clock while moving into field goal range, the team could likely walk away with a narrow win.
However, the Tech quickly found itself in a 3rd-and-5 from their own 25 yard line, and it seemed likely that they would be soon giving the ball back to Boston College. Hokies fans had no idea just how soon that would happen. Logan Thomas was forced to quickly backpedal deep behind the line of scrimmage as defenders easily came through. Rather than eat a sack or toss the ball away, he instead threw an ill-advised pass straight up the middle of the field to a crowd of waiting Eagles.
With plenty of blockers, Kevin Pierre-Louis is able to fairly easily take the ball 33 yards back to the end zone and give Boston College a 7-point lead.
Andre Williams would later twist the knife on a 62-yard touchdown run and a final VT touchdown was too little, too late as the Hokies fell 27-34.
The 8th-most Dominating Play: Georgia Tech 9/3/2012 - Logan Thomas pass complete to Demitri Knowles for 42 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
In an unusually low-scoring Techmo Bowl, the teams entered the fourth quarter with the Bees holding a narrow 10-7 lead. Given Georgia Tech's ability to drain huge amounts of clock by efficiently running and never passing, the Yellow Jackets had the game well within control. About midway through the quarter, Virginia Tech had the ball and couldn't be sure they would have another possession if they weren't able to at least tie the game.
On 2nd-and-12 from their own 23, a 35-yard completion to Marcus Davis nearly ended in disaster when Jamal Golden forced a fumble, luckily recovered by Corey Fuller. It would be unsurprising to get a little conservative after the nearly costly mistake. But Logan Thomas is nothing if not unshakable.
Still needing at least field goal range from the Yellow Jacket 42, Logan took a short drop and lofted a ball deep up the right side of the field. There, Demitri Knowles had a couple of steps on the coverage and Logan had placed the ball just in the right place for Knowles to catch it a couple of steps into the end zone despite a desperate pass interference attempt by the defender.
In a real thriller, Georgia Tech would respond with a touchdown with 44 seconds to go; the Hokies would then get a field goal as time expired, and seal the win with an overtime field goal.
Comments
damn. nice grab
THE Demetri Knowles highlight
well, the DB didn't even pretend to be interested in jamming him. If you let a "track guy" run his route un-assaulted you're going to have a tough time recovering. If you watch the end zone perspective you can actually see Knowles has to slow down to get under the pass...that shows just how fast he is. I think teams must have figured out pretty quickly that if you jam him up and throw his route out of sync he's pretty much a non-factor.
"Knowles with his first career catch."
Idk about you guys, but this entry of the series was much easier on the heart
Something about it being Boston College and a disappointing season in general makes the interception much easier to swallow. Plus it felt like we were going to lose that game for most of it, so it's not like Boise State where the win is within sight and it gets ripped away from you.
I hope you don't mind, but soon I'll return to ripping your soul out first thing in the morning. Plus a good play.
Oh we all know what we;re in for when we come to read these articles. Its kind of like a train wreck. you want to look away. But you. Just. Cant.
...And then the good plays level you out haha
A Thomas the Train Wreck?
I haven't even watched any of the devastating clips haha. Only watch the dominating ones.
I figured the Knowles catch would be on here. I feel like I can predict maybe half of all the positive plays but I've done my best to forget the lows.
I will say this about the #8 post: It encapsulates the best and worst of the Logan Thomas era at Virginia Tech. In the devastating play we see a bad decision that begins with a line breakdown, and it seems like his bad games mostly game with poor protection. Then in the dominating play, we see him with protection and decent wide receiver play and aside from size it's easy to understand why he puts on a Cardinals jersey now.
Throw in one Logandozer run and you have everything you need to know about LT3 in a single post.
And I will forever love the guy. Sure he was inconsistent as hell, but he played his a$$ off for us every time he was on the field.
Also, I still think last year's team wins 9-10 games with him at QB.
What's interesting about the GT chart, is that we start the game as a slight favorite and then jump to 80% odds around the end of the first quarter. I'm surprised the odds would be that high with that much time left in a low scoring game. The formula must be taking into account how well/bad each team is playing so far throughout the game, based on stats other than the score and current field position. Also, it looks like the chart runs to the end of regulation, but not through overtime. So heading into overtime, the formula appears to have us at about the same odds as the start of the game, which makes sense. Love this stuff!
Good point, but it's actually the opposite effect you're seeing. The formula doesn't take into account how each team is playing to that point (that early in a game would be a pretty small sample anyway), but your brain does. So in your head you're thinking "These teams are close, this is anyone's game" but the model is thinking "It's already 7-0 and the team that winning is sitting on 1st and 10 near midfield. About 80% of the time in that situation that team wins".
Basically because it's Georgia Tech we feel like it's still not much better than 50/50 but put the teams in the same situation but call it Bowling Green and suddenly it feels too low.
Ahh, I see, I guess I', still surprised by the 80%. But I guess 80% of the time a team would win in that situation. Really emphasizes how important it is to start strong and fast and get an early lead. Thanks.
It's was the best of Logan
It was the worst of Logan
A Tale of Two LTs
I almost put TEs, but that one has been overdone....
Boston College, huh?
Fuck Matt Ryan
CAUTION: NSFW
wow.
That entire exchange is disturbing...
I'm gonna pull a London here and call a timeout. ...wtf is going on???
But....London doesn't ever call time outs!?
That GT game was the first game after I graduated. I had the worst feeling in pit of my stomach the whole game because I couldn't be there.
I was at that GT game. Was a great day.
On a side note, the devastating plays make my bhole pucker. I hate reliving those.
You know us so well!
I would've thought the defining play in that Georgia Tech game would've been Logan Thomas getting punched in the head drawing a 15-yard penalty which gave us a much needed 1st down and ended up with us winning because of the subsequent plays to score. Or was that a different year?
*edit: nvm, just googled it, it was the year before that GT's Attaochu hit Thomas upside the head ^_^
That was a different year. Good ol Attauchou?? Spell check, obviously. Lol
Bless you
Reminds me of The Princess Bride.
Are you sure its not Robin Hood: Men in Tights you are thinking of?
Thanks!
Haha...I just looked that play up, and his punch to LT's head increased our win probability almost 9%! It was worth almost as much as David Wilson's 44 yard run a couple of plays later.
You answered my question before I could ask it. So your model accounts for dead ball fouls. Good to know.
Which could be an interesting spin-off: 'most devastating/helpful penalties'.
This stuff is golden.
I think it was one of these games we also benefitted from "Illegal Touching".
9%?! that's some good stuff ^_^ Yeah, it was definitely a critical turning point for sure
The Georgia Tech play hurt me as well because it reminded me that's the last game we played before we tailspun into mediocrity...
I remember being there, Labor day Orange Effect, first overtime game at Lane. We all had high hopes for the season. LT came off of a terrific year and was in the hunt for being a Top 5 pick, and a few weeks later everything derailed...remembering that actually hurt more than the Boston College INT.
Strangely, that first overtime game in Lane was a harbinger for how we would start *and* end the year.
And since then we've had like what, 3 OT Lane games?
GT, Marshall, Maryland, and I think there was one more but I'm not sure...
3 TOO many...ugh
Was that the same year we "played" rutgers in a bowl game?
I use the term play loosely, as watching that game was just horrendous.
man that was awful. We were staying at my in-laws for Christmas and I blew them off for 3+ hours to watch this. Totally not worth the ensuing hate.
Worst football game I have ever seen.
...I'm guessing you didn't watch when we played Wake Forest this past year then?
The first half then I went outside to do yard work.
Win or lose, I didn't want to see any more.
We did not play Wake Forest last year.
At least we won, so we got that going for us
Which is nice.
yep, that game was like watching two really drunk dudes throw haymakers at each other hoping to get a knockout.
I was there too, great atmosphere. I remember after Cody won it OT a guy had the same Tyrod jersey as me coming down the stairs and I was all pumped up and was like, "HEY MAN NICE JERSEY." He responded with "we are gonna lose some games this year." I retorted with "aww man don't be a negative Nancy." Guess he was right.
What surprises me most on this one is to be reminded that eight games into the '13 season we were sitting at 6-2. Lefty came close to having a very good first season.
We were ranked #14 I believe going into the Duke game, sitting at 6-1 with our only loss at Alabama. It could've been a really special season. Then LT decided to revert back into 2012 mode.
That whole game is one of the most frustrating games I've watched in recent memory. Up there with the Wake Forest game.
Fuck Matt Ryan
Sean McDonough should be hired as the new voice of the Hokies.
I've always enjoyed his calls when he is working the VT games for the Mothership
Not many have a better VT resume....
The Graham kick makes me nervous even in replay!
I love these, especially Nebraska. Side note, how do digital videos get pixelated like that? I'm sure it didn't look like that at the broadcast. The best videos we have of Wayne Ward's block are terrible quality too.
Oh, maybe it's the curse of WVU.
Seriously...looked like someone was playing tecmo bowl out there...
I think because back then the best quality videos you could find online were of something like 100x100 pixels, and people are scaling them up to upload to YouTube
Oh, word. I thought it was because someone left the youtube video in their car on a hot summer day /s
every time I watch this I can't help but wonder what Beamer was saying to Taylor when he removed his helmet.
Beamer puts both his hands on Taylor's head, pulls him in close, and over the crowd noise says as loud as he can, "be sure to drink your Ovaltine." or something like that. #ShrugEmoji
I've heard it was the play call for the two point conversion.
Great stuff as always.
But I'm going to disagree with the characterization that Andre Williams had been dominating when LT threw that pick. To that point he only had 97 yards on 29 carries (a 3.3 ypc average), only one run over 10 yards, and BC had struggled to sustain drives. We had been moving the ball well too. That's why LT's interception and three other turnovers were so devastating to me.
When he was backpedaling I exclaimed "LOGAN NO!!" I saw it happen before it happened. That was indeed a devastator.
I think all of Hokie Nation yelling that is what actually caused the ball to be intercepted.
Butterfly effect and what not ^_^
I remember being a freshman during that Georgia Tech game and it was the first Virginia Tech game I've ever been to. This game definitely did not bore me suffice it to say