Great question, and a good writeup. I think it's pretty obvious that Virginia Tech is scheduling higher quality opponents. Most fans realize the benefit of that, and want more of it. We want to be competitive with every team out there, and the only way to do that is to play the best. Like the Coldplay song, it's the only way to find out what you're worth.
The scheduling choice that gives me the most heartburn is East Carolina, which seems to be way too much scheduling of one particular team, without any clear reason why that I can figure out. If someone understands the rationale there, I'd love to hear it.
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Fan base can drive there. Home-and-home deal means you don't have to pay a team a one-time fee to visit. Provides enough of a challenge that it fits that Tier 2 type opponent VT looks for on a yearly basis. And ECU is open to the agreement. That last one might be overlooked. Both sides need to want to do it for it to happen.
I'm curious if, as ODU rises in profile, the Monarchs become that Tier 2-type opponent. They'd have all the above benefits plus being in the heart of the recruit-rich 757.
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Those reasons make it understandable why East Carolina should on the schedule, but not why they why they should be on the schedule EVERY YEAR, an honor that should be reserved for UVa only. Maybe that slot should be rotated between East Carolina, ODU, and two or three other teams. You know, to get a mix of variety AND local competitiveness going.
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I would totally be behind this. ECU just makes sense to play because of everything you listed above but every year for, what, 10 years? That's insane. I'd love to see a rotation set up something along the lines of ECU, Marshall, ODU (?), and maybe one other tier 2 that's somewhat close. They can be exciting (and frightening, yes) games, they're all relatively close so the fan base can travel.
So, then, who do you consider to be in that second tier?
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Maybe so. And he did manage to schedule some awesome matchups like Alabama and Ohio State, so it's not like it's all bad. Just seems like overkill is all.
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Loved the read, Andy.
However, the inner statistician in me is considering adjusting the numbers you summarized so that OOC state rivalry games are removed (which is an automatically scheduled game whether it helps or hurts the team in question). Obviously of no concern to VT, but might make FSUs scheduling look worse in the 2000s and better in the 2010s.
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Those games aren't necessarily automatic. I mean, they play them every year and there'd be hell to pay if they ended them, but it's not like they have to play in perpetuity. Look at Texas and A&M now that they're not in the same league.
I think you have to count those games, just because so much of what FSU and Clemson do with regards to non-conference scheduling is with that yearly game in mind. The Noles would certainly schedule differently if they knew they didn't have a potentially tough Florida at the end of every year.
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Just playing devil's advocate here. Also because I now live in Alabama and remembered you used to cover Auburn but isn't the Alabama-Auburn game written into the state's laws that they have to play each other? I feel like I remember that or I'm making it up. It's late and I can't sleep.
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No, the legislature passed a resolution in the 40's to restart the game and threatened to cut funding if they didn't, but it wasn't a law. The Iron Bowl wasn't played for quite a few years while Bama tried to force the closure of Auburn; whom they rightly saw as a threat to their being the preeminent educational institution in the state.
War Eagle
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One inherent flaw in this type of analysis -- whether you use record or computer ranking or whatever -- is that they don't take into account that the games are scheduled years in advance. You can't control how good or bad a team will be by the time a game is played. If VT had agreed in 2010 to play a neutral field game with, say, Auburn in 2012 (as Clemson actually did, IIRC), would that have been weak scheduling?
I think you'd get a more accurate picture by using some sort of rolling average for the opponents rather than a snapshot of their performance in the year they played. And I can't think of a better guy to do it than someone other than me...
Second point, my memory is that VT was a team that (particularly in the 90s) had a hard time scheduling top tier opponents unless VT wanted to sell its soul to do so (and still likely has difficulty scheduling SEC schools for home and homes). TCU (and probably a few others like Boise St) was in this boat in 2000s. The big dogs saw it as too much to lose (and a real chance of doing so) vs too little to gain.
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Yes, there's fluctuation about how good a team is when the game is scheduled vs. when it's played, but over a period of 17 years like this, I still think it tends to paint a pretty clear picture of which teams challenge themselves and which don't. And for however many games are easier than you thought they might be, there are probably an equal number that were more challenging than initially thought.
It's not like N.C. State just had 17 years of rotten luck that all of its top-tier non-conference opponents just so happened to not be that good when they played. The Wolfpack doesn't consistently schedule the type of matchups that have a chance at being that hard.
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I hope so, we have some horrendous OOC and home schedules coming up. We were really hurt by the ACC swapping some teams around and putting Miami, GT, and UVA all on the same home or away cycle for us.
Now we have Duke, UNC, and Pitt on the same cycle, and get them home in odd years. This year, we drew NC State as our random crossover. Ugh...add Furman to the mix, and OSU is the only saving grace for the home schedule.
At least in 2017, we draw Clemson. But we have Delaware and ODU as OOC.
2019, WF is the crossover, ODU and Furman as OOC.
At least 2021 has a decent OOC schedule with Richmond (my wife's alma mater, so that will be fun for us), Michigan and Notre Dame.
There is really no need to play both ECU and ODU in the same year.
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Comments
Great question, and a good writeup. I think it's pretty obvious that Virginia Tech is scheduling higher quality opponents. Most fans realize the benefit of that, and want more of it. We want to be competitive with every team out there, and the only way to do that is to play the best. Like the Coldplay song, it's the only way to find out what you're worth.
The scheduling choice that gives me the most heartburn is East Carolina, which seems to be way too much scheduling of one particular team, without any clear reason why that I can figure out. If someone understands the rationale there, I'd love to hear it.
Fan base can drive there. Home-and-home deal means you don't have to pay a team a one-time fee to visit. Provides enough of a challenge that it fits that Tier 2 type opponent VT looks for on a yearly basis. And ECU is open to the agreement. That last one might be overlooked. Both sides need to want to do it for it to happen.
I'm curious if, as ODU rises in profile, the Monarchs become that Tier 2-type opponent. They'd have all the above benefits plus being in the heart of the recruit-rich 757.
Thanks for the response. I really do get that.
Those reasons make it understandable why East Carolina should on the schedule, but not why they why they should be on the schedule EVERY YEAR, an honor that should be reserved for UVa only. Maybe that slot should be rotated between East Carolina, ODU, and two or three other teams. You know, to get a mix of variety AND local competitiveness going.
Yeah, every year is overkill. I'd say completing one home-and-home in four years isn't too far-fetched, though.
I would totally be behind this. ECU just makes sense to play because of everything you listed above but every year for, what, 10 years? That's insane. I'd love to see a rotation set up something along the lines of ECU, Marshall, ODU (?), and maybe one other tier 2 that's somewhat close. They can be exciting (and frightening, yes) games, they're all relatively close so the fan base can travel.
So, then, who do you consider to be in that second tier?
I'd be on board for a home and home series in four years, too.
But a 12 game series with East Carolina seems like someone put the car on cruise control and climbed into the back seat.
Not saying this drove the ECU decision but it made one less game Weaver had to find every season. That could have been a reason.
Maybe so. And he did manage to schedule some awesome matchups like Alabama and Ohio State, so it's not like it's all bad. Just seems like overkill is all.
Loved the read, Andy.
However, the inner statistician in me is considering adjusting the numbers you summarized so that OOC state rivalry games are removed (which is an automatically scheduled game whether it helps or hurts the team in question). Obviously of no concern to VT, but might make FSUs scheduling look worse in the 2000s and better in the 2010s.
Those games aren't necessarily automatic. I mean, they play them every year and there'd be hell to pay if they ended them, but it's not like they have to play in perpetuity. Look at Texas and A&M now that they're not in the same league.
I think you have to count those games, just because so much of what FSU and Clemson do with regards to non-conference scheduling is with that yearly game in mind. The Noles would certainly schedule differently if they knew they didn't have a potentially tough Florida at the end of every year.
You certainly do have to count them. Bowden may have won 3 more National Championships if they had dropped Miami in the 80s.
Just playing devil's advocate here. Also because I now live in Alabama and remembered you used to cover Auburn but isn't the Alabama-Auburn game written into the state's laws that they have to play each other? I feel like I remember that or I'm making it up. It's late and I can't sleep.
No, the legislature passed a resolution in the 40's to restart the game and threatened to cut funding if they didn't, but it wasn't a law. The Iron Bowl wasn't played for quite a few years while Bama tried to force the closure of Auburn; whom they rightly saw as a threat to their being the preeminent educational institution in the state.
War Eagle
One inherent flaw in this type of analysis -- whether you use record or computer ranking or whatever -- is that they don't take into account that the games are scheduled years in advance. You can't control how good or bad a team will be by the time a game is played. If VT had agreed in 2010 to play a neutral field game with, say, Auburn in 2012 (as Clemson actually did, IIRC), would that have been weak scheduling?
I think you'd get a more accurate picture by using some sort of rolling average for the opponents rather than a snapshot of their performance in the year they played. And I can't think of a better guy to do it than someone other than me...
Second point, my memory is that VT was a team that (particularly in the 90s) had a hard time scheduling top tier opponents unless VT wanted to sell its soul to do so (and still likely has difficulty scheduling SEC schools for home and homes). TCU (and probably a few others like Boise St) was in this boat in 2000s. The big dogs saw it as too much to lose (and a real chance of doing so) vs too little to gain.
Yes, there's fluctuation about how good a team is when the game is scheduled vs. when it's played, but over a period of 17 years like this, I still think it tends to paint a pretty clear picture of which teams challenge themselves and which don't. And for however many games are easier than you thought they might be, there are probably an equal number that were more challenging than initially thought.
It's not like N.C. State just had 17 years of rotten luck that all of its top-tier non-conference opponents just so happened to not be that good when they played. The Wolfpack doesn't consistently schedule the type of matchups that have a chance at being that hard.
True. It's probably a decent broad indicator; I just wouldn't draw too much from rankings using the methodology.
Andy has there been any talk out of the athletic dept. regarding future schedule changes or additions?
I hope so, we have some horrendous OOC and home schedules coming up. We were really hurt by the ACC swapping some teams around and putting Miami, GT, and UVA all on the same home or away cycle for us.
Now we have Duke, UNC, and Pitt on the same cycle, and get them home in odd years. This year, we drew NC State as our random crossover. Ugh...add Furman to the mix, and OSU is the only saving grace for the home schedule.
At least in 2017, we draw Clemson. But we have Delaware and ODU as OOC.
2019, WF is the crossover, ODU and Furman as OOC.
At least 2021 has a decent OOC schedule with Richmond (my wife's alma mater, so that will be fun for us), Michigan and Notre Dame.
There is really no need to play both ECU and ODU in the same year.