An interesting look at the analysis of our chances of beating anOSU.
Personally I love how people keep underestimating us. If this was game 4 or 5 of the season, i'd give us much less of a chance of the upset. But game 1? Healthy athletes (touchwood)? I hope they like seconds of ass-whooping!
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This is the most confusing article ever. VT has a great defense, probably the best OSU will see! They're returning a lot of guys on offense who should be better! But we're giving them a 10% shot because #BuckeyeThings.
Now I'm as biased as they come in terms of rooting for the Hokies, and I'm not saying that we're going to stomp OSU, or that I'm even going to feel confident about a win, but a 10% chance of victory is insulting, I think. On the back of the defense alone giving the Poisonous Nuts a tough time, we merit better odds. Combine that with playing at home in a hotly anticipated (night!) game, and I think it's going to be a rough time for our friends from the north.
"Last year it was all about the scheme. With quarterback J.T. Barrett making his second start, Virginia Tech attacked the Buckeyes with a defense that put nine players near the line of scrimmage and the OSU coaches said they weren't prepared for what the Hokies did on either side of the ball.
That won't happen this year. No surprises."
I forgot that Bud Foster wasn't planning to do anything differently this year. Too bad he's not a defensive innovator or anything, or else he could cause some real havoc with that talented defense. Also a fun note - they gave us an 11% chance of winning last year. [eye-roll]
I thought the same thing while reading that. Do they really think Bud only has one trick?
He only NEEDS the one trick.
Shhhhh don't spoil it!
They obviously haven't heard of "The Terrordome" - why not introduce them to it in full style?
I love the logic they use to get to 10%. "Well last year we gave them an 11% chance, more than any other opponent, and they won. But we think OSU is better this year so we'll just knock it down a little from last year's line rather than admit that we underestimated them." The homer in me says we have a 49% chance of winning (can't convince myself that we have over a 50/50 shot), but I can realistically argue at 25-30%. OSU should be favored, but that doesn't mean that it's cut and dry. I always look at these odds saying that if we played them 10 times, we'd only win once. I believe we could win at least 3 times. Yay for the offseason!
well, so far we've won 100% of the games we've played against them, so does that mean the guy's saying that if we played 9 more times, we'd drop 9 straight?
Calculating the % of going undefeated gets really sobering really fast though if you don't fudge your numbers like they are. If you actually give the other teams a 30% chance to win one week, and a toss-up game with a rival, it drops to far too low a number for a homer to really feel good about. To me, this feels like they massaged arbitrarily assigned numbers to get the undefeated "we're the best ever" number somewhere closer to a palatable 50%.
The author had a poor delivery, but I kind of agree with the premise. Our defense is good enough to put us in position to win. The question is, can our offense do enough to take the next step and win the game? It's very possible, but it's not often that we put together a complete offensive performance for all 4 quarters (which we will need to do to win this game).
My main point is they did nothing to justify what they were saying. Effectively, "VT returns everyone who is important on offense, and who did enough to beat OSU last year, but OSU is just flat better so there's very little chance that will happen again." On paper, OSU is the better team and has the better track record. I'm not even upset in the slightest that we're an underdog; we should be. But 10% strikes me as absurdly low. Best defense they'll face? Check. Most of the offense that beat them once? Check. There's enough talent to be competitive if they put up even a decent performance. If the odds had been 20-30%, I would be OK with that prediction. The argument here is just really hard to even follow.
The problem is they seem to assume this year's OSU team will be as good or better than the OSU team that was clicking on all cylinders late last season against admittedly very good teams -- but with whom they also happened to match-up favorably.
1) The likelihood that this season's OSU team will play at their late 2014 level again in 2015 is not very high. There's a reason it's hard to repeat.
2) The likelihood that VT's improvement from 2014 is greater than OSU's from 2014 is fairly high
3) They overestimate the "surprise" factor in last year's game vs VT and underestimate the fundamental match-up problems the VT defense presents schematically and talent-wise.
4) They underestimate how much the VT games (last year and this year) being early in the season levels the playing field for VT from a talent/depth standpoint. OSU is much deeper than VT, but an early season healthy VT can compete pretty well talent-wise at the starting 22.
However, in the writers' defense, the current spread would indicate that VT has about an 8% chance of winning.
But I think the mostly either disinterested or biased public right now is making the same errors as the writer and the point spread will drop as the season gets closer and more dispassionate parties start looking at the game more closely. As you infer, a more accurate spread is probably in the neighborhood of 12 points and the real likelihood of a VT win -- at home -- is probably more like 25%.
I agree with all 4 points you made but the leg was truly earned with No. 3. Way too much emphasis was put into how surprised and unprepared OSU was immediately following the game and even for a while after the post-game analysis was run. From as unbiased an opinion as I can give, we just flat-out matched up well against them and I think that bodes well for the rematch in Blacksburg, even more-so than the home field advantage.
I see your point, but I see an-ECU-type approach to how they'll play us this year. Jump balls with our DB's back turned that'll either have their WR's make the catch or get the PI penalty. THATS what i'm truly worried about.
You forgot about the other options, the DB gets the knock down or the interception, the ball is poorly thrown/uncatchable as a result of dline pressure, or general miscommunication between qb and wr. The ECU game was a mix of great skilled veteran players in a spread system that plays to our weaknesses. I doubt OSU changes their entire offensive scheme away from the run-first option style.
Facyson being injured also magnified the problems against ECU. If he's healthy, that first quarter certainly goes differently.
If I were Meyer, I'd do the ECU approach to get us to move some of our men off the LOS and help out the DBs. When that happens, they'll get the favorable match up in the box that they want. So they aren't necessarily getting away from their entire offensive scheme - it's what they wanted to do last year and didn't make it happen, but saw ECU do to us very well.
That's an interesting strategy I hadn't thought of. But if I were OSU I would look at more along the lines of what Georgia Tech does on occasion by using it just enough to keep the VT defense honest.
The problems I see with OSU replicating the ECU approach:
1) I'm not sure how good OSU would be at trying do what ECU did.
2) A healthy Facyson changes that equation considerably.
3) It wasn't particularly successful from the mid-point of the 2nd qtr until the last 60 sec of the ECU game.
4) it may take OSU away from what they do best. Defending National Champions don't usually resort to "gimmicks" to get their opponent off balance...
So I got bored and decided to go to 11W and pass the time by typing "Virginia Tech" into the search bar and reading the comments on whatever article came up. What I gathered was that fans were FURIOUS that Meyer tried the ECU approach to beat zero coverage, and that they should have run more screens (literally laughed there, given what I hear all the time from VT fans), intermediate routes, etc. The thing is, ECU and OSU tried the exact same thing to beat man coverage, and the difference was a healthy Facyson and big, physical receivers who could go up and win jump balls. Well, Facyson's back and I don't think it'll be quite so easy to pick on Chuck Clark this year either. I for one wouldn't mind at all if Meyer wanted to chuck deep balls all night, so long as our secondary lives up to its billing.
Throwing deep also requires time for the WRs to get downfield. That just gives Dadi, Maddy, Marshall, and the Ekannibal time to play...
Seriously, anyone banking on the deep passing game hasn't read about the two biggest strengths of our team.
No kidding. Still, OSU did keep Barrett's jersey pretty clean for the first 2.5 quarters of the game last year. And if Jones is playing QB, he might be able to shake a tackle or two before heaving one deep. Then again, I'd love to see what would happen if Foster decided to throw some zone blitzes or robber coverages in there and see just how well one of Meyer's QBs can sit back and read a defense. PSU got a pick-six from a DT by doing just that. Barrett thought he made a good choice on a corner blitz by throwing a quick slant only to completely miss the DT dropping off into his throwing lane, picking it, and taking it the other way for a TD.
I'm surprised I haven't seen more talk of what PSU did against them last year here. We were able to hold OSU in check (similar to UM), but PSU was the only team that really shut them down.
Trust me, I have read it, but never say never. They were also the biggest strengths of our team last year.
Except Facyson wasn't healthy against OSU. The problem for OSU was that I don't think they figured that out until halftime.
ECU knew he was injured from the get-go.
I think there will be 4-6 PI calls against us on Labor Day. I think they'll exploit the weakness as much as possible.
Most of the time when we get called for PI it is on a safety who got beat over the top and is trying to make up ground. If they get the run going this could be an issue, especially with new safeties, but I am taking the under on this, way under at 1 or 2 PI calls.
I suppose you could say this about almost any team that we play, but that doesn't mean it'll work. OSU lost their deep ball threat (Devin Smith was the best deep ball receiver in the country last year) and aren't particularly tall or experienced at WR as far as contributors (unlike UNC, who has a huge WR corps, GT, or Cinci for example). It's an very low percentage way to win a game unless you're absolutely certain you have the personnel for it- I don't really expect OSU to get too far from their normal game plan.
I certainly wouldn't classify it as a weakness, like someone else said. We've been using this technique for years, I believe at least as long as Torrian Gray has been the DB coach. Thought French had put this notion to bed.
True, you need the skill players (and the balls) to do this, and by and large OSU stock piles talent at ALL positions. I don't see this as an approach they wouldn't do - especially if ECU (a non-talented team?) did it so well against us.
I don't think I would call ECU a 'non-talented' team. They had talent when they beat us. They're certainly not as talented or deep as OSU (but, who is?) but I just don't think it is fair to say they are non-talented.
Agreed - hence the question mark. I wouldn't say they're untalented, but not quite up to anOSU's level.
OSU has talent, but they don't have any receivers as big as the kid ECU used to smack us last year.
That, and for as good as all the qbs are, are any of them as good throwing as Shane Carden?
Regarding their WRs and how talented their QBs are - I think they'd be just as talented (if not more) than ECU's, but I guess we'll just have to see how it translates out on the field instead of recruiting numbers.
Exactly. Talent doesn't buy you skill or size. Michael Thomas is an excellent receiver, but other than him it remains to be seen if the other OSU receivers have the skill set. It may well happen, but it is a low percentage way to try to win a game, especially when your receivers (not named Devin Smith) didn't show the ability last year.
While losing D Smith hurts, as well as Spencer since his numbers weren't stellar but his downfield blocking helped us a lot, especially when Elliot went 85 yards through the heart of the south against Bama.
However, I disagree with your "didn't show ability" comment. In addition to Thomas, Marshall, Wilson,and Samuel showed potential. If Corey Smith plays up to his potential he could have a breakout senior season. Vannett is an excellent TE so replacing Herman is not that big of a deal.Of course, the stats don't show the caliber of the opponent so it's hard to draw definitive conclusions, but given their performance with limited touches I'd say they certainly showed ability; now what is needed is for them to translate that into consistent performance with more touches. We do need a breakout guy like Smith to develop and I doubt that we will know who that is by your game. His size and speed is hard to replace and it will take a while for us to see who can fulfill that role.
It will be interesting to see what type of O we bring. We're a power run team that uses the passing game to spread the field and keep teams honest. I think our WRs will give your talented backfield a run for their money since I anticipate a lot of 1 on 1 where they have to decide who to ultimately defend. If your LB drops in to stop the run on a play action we have Vannett in the middle on a crossing route, as well as potential mismatches to a WR. If the LB keys on Vannett that opens up a running lane, so does your CB drop to stop the run or stay with his guy to prevent a last second pass to guy behind him?
Here are some stats:
PLAYER CLASS YARDS CATCH% Target % YDSPERCATCH
Curtis Samuel FR 95 78.6% 3.7% (10th) 8.6
Evan Spencer SR 149 40.5% 9.7% (4th) 9.9
Jeff Heuerman SR 207 68.0% 6.5% (8th) 12.2
Nick Vannett JR 220 82.6% 6% (9th) 11.6
Ezekiel Elliott SO 220 87.5% 8.4% (7th) 7.9
Corey Smith JR 255 60.6% 8.6% (6th) 12.8
Dontre Wilson SO 300 61.8% 8.9% (5th) 14.3
Jalin Marshall FR 499 73.1% 13.6% (2nd) 13.1
Michael Thomas SO 799 72.0% 19.6% (1st) 14.8
Devin Smith SR 931 68.8% 12.6% (3rd) 28.2
I think I meant specifically in terms of catching deep balls. While the potential is there, I only recall Smith and Marshall catching long throws for you guys. Nick Vannett is and will be a good TE, but I don't think he's shown the same ability to stretch the defense down the seam like Heuerman- at least not yet. IIRC, Wilson was hurt for a large part of the year so he didn't get a ton of chances and a lot of Samuel's catches were out of the backfield. There's a lot of talent there, but much of it is relatively unproven (Corey Smith, Johnnie Dixon, Noah Brown, etc.). Look at the stats you used, no one anywhere close to Devin Smith in ypc. Like you said, it'll probably take a little time to truly replace him, since he was the best deep ball receiver in cfb last year.
I would be surprised to see a linebacker have coverage responsibilities on Vannett at all. It would likely be either the nickel corner or the rover (both of who will be new this year), depending on formation. Part of the challenge of man coverage for sure and staying disciplined in coverage responsibilities is very difficult against your offense. That's a main issue of concern for me with two new players in the secondary.
Yea, I think we are pretty much in agreement on the challenges both teams face. While I realize you were referring to the deep ball I wanted to point out what we have at WR. Besides, what fun is the internet if someone can't respond with a counter argument that doesn't address the point made?
I think if we can establish our running game we will stay pretty vanilla in passing with the goal of keeping you honest and not stuffing the box against us. If you stop our run game it could be a long night for us because even though we have the talent it'll be a lot to ask of them to put the game in their hands; especially against a good them like VT. I'd be less worried if we opened against a cream puff where we could work out the kinks without having to worry too much about losing if we have a bad day.
As for Vannett, I'm hoping you guys overlook him in coverage; if that happens I think he will surprise you. I'm not surprised Smith's YPC dwarf the others given the role he played last year; however given he wasn't the #1 target shows that UM has a lot of confidence in his other receivers was well.
I don't buy the "surprise" factor. It's Urban Meyer, winner of ? National Championships, and one of the top coaches in the FBS. Sorry, don't buy it. They were prepared, and they got BEAT!
Yep, my thoughts exactly. You mean to tell me Urban Meyer, 2-time (now 3) national champion coach, simply didn't have his team prepared and took the night off, being totally caught off guard by us? If that's the case, then he's simply been fortunate to surround himself with elite talent, because that doesn't say much about his coaching acumen. OSU fans don't want to admit it, but we matched up perfectly with them, outplayed them, and Bud Foster completely vexed their offense with not only a well-crafted scheme, but talent and athleticism that exploited their weaknesses as an offense.
I have been saying over and over to people that if you are assuming that the team that ran over Wisconsin, beat Alabama, and throttled Oregon is going to be the team that runs out onto the field in Blacksburg, you are most likely very, very wrong. The entire team is not back. It's a new year, new team, new chemistry, new pressures, etc. No one knows how this team is going to be. They could be as good or better than last year's version, but it is likely that they will not be anything near the team we saw on 1/12/15, especially considering this is game #1. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, this will be game #1 for the Hokies too. Hopefully, they will progress as the season goes along, but the unknowns that come with new year/new team should be sufficient to cause a reasonable person to be restrained in predicting the relative strengths of these teams.
I think you are correct in your thought process. It applies to us as well. We feel we have to be better just because we refuse to believe it can be worse. I am really looking forward to VT taking back big games in Lane. I hope OSU fans enjoy Blacksburg and campus.
Very good points; we're in overall agreement. Team dynamics vary from year to year beyond just replacing key losses. A player may have a great year and then regress the next. You never know who will step up but determining that takes time.
However, I do think it is reasonable to look at what a team has and use that to make predictions about how you can expect it to perform. If a team had a star that accounted for much of their production and he leaves you can expect them to be down. Similarly, if production was spread across a number of players a few losses should have less impact. It's easy to see and assess that type of impact since you see the stats. What's hard to account for is what I call second tier impact. Who will replace Spencer's downfield blocking ability? His key hits enabled Elliot to gain extra yards.
That said, both tOSU and VT return the core of their teams; and should be able to build on that to be good teams. I give us a slight edge overall and thus think we should be 10 - 14 point favorites; it could be much closer as game time approaches. Based on what little I know I am expecting a tight game, with us pulling away in the 4th base don what I see as a greater offensive depth to wear down VT's defense.
As in all predictions, your mileage may vary. Professional poster on a closed course. Do not attempt this at home.
I hope they invite Lebron again. If he is on their bench, then no one from an Ohio team will be able to score.
They do that, we could counter with Steph Curry (who is a big VT football fan, despite what happened with his recruitment)... and yeah... 1-upped again
Is Steph really a Hokie Football Fan?
His dad still comes to football games, and apparently is a big football booster. Doesn't visit Cassel except in Duke gear though...
Pretty sure there is a 100% chance the Buckeyes could lose. Maybe a 70% chance they will. Just the literal facts.
I'm glad I read that article. Now I know the only reason we won last year is that anOSU had to prepare for Navy and that left them completely unprepared for the juggernaut that is VT offense. What a clown.
Also, I love that us losing 3 senior starters off the O-line is the reason our offense will be awful. Did anyone see our O-line play last year? Anyone who did knows that those losses are hardly key and that we're returning the best part of the line.
I think we can win this. I can easily see us losing, but anyone who says they're 90% sure we will is just a bucknut homer. /rant
Not to mention we will actually only be starting 1 OL who didn't start a game last season, so the whole "losing 3 senior starters from the OL" is overblown. We'll definitely miss those guys from a depth perspective, and the second string now becomes unproven, but if there's a time you can perhaps mask depth issues it's the first game.
And really, the talent at OL is higher right now than it was a year ago. Considering how we've been recruiting there compared to what we had on the roster, OL turnover isn't exactly a bad thing, especially when the guys we have going forward already have significant PT under their belts.
They can give us whatever probability they want, and I'll keep posting this all the way to Labor Day.
I have to say... I thought Ohio State fans were a little overconfident last year, but man, they went to plaid with it this year....
What the hell was that?
Spaceball 1?
They've gone to plaid!
DRINK!
Nah, 2nd one's a gif, first one's an image. Acceptable upgrade.
It was easy finding a meme for it... gif? Not so much
Is it not both?
So what you're saying is...your mission was to one up me huh Alum? Ok then. I see how it is...
(edited for the incorrect use of "you're" which I HATE myself for missing...)
1 minute, 18 seconds apart...
Well if the spread is still around +16 or so around kickoff then 10 percent would unfortunately be accurate, It just sounds rediculous
More Bulletin Board Material, love it
It goes without saying, and I should know better. But even if you're curious, DON'T READ THE COMMENTS. Instead, let me just summarize them for you:
1.) OSU lost last year because they were preparing for Navy's triple-option the next week.
2.) OSU is going to score 50 points against us.
3.) OSU is going to score 50 points against everyone they play this season.
4.) VT fans are entitled because of Michael Vick.
lol
Up till last year, OSU fans were entitled because phony pass interference in the end zone call.
To be fair, that poster lived 30 miles from the Burg for 11 years.
i.e. He knows all about VT because he lived in Cave Spring in 2004. *sarc*
Actually, it was the right call and IIRC was named one of the 10 best calls by the referee's association magazine. The refs may have not been calling it tight all night, but Porter got that one right, the defender was clearly making significant contact before the ball was caught but in the air and not going for the ball. Share was making contact with Gamble off the line as well in the end zone, so he could just as easily been flagged for defensive holding instead of PI.
The real crime was the refs blowing a first down call late in the game where our receiver caught the ball and landed inbounds but was called out. Get that right, we run down the clock and win in regulation. The hurt runs deep in Miami fans but we simply outplayed them; just as you did with us last year.
I think there are a lot of Miami fans who would disagree with you on the nature of the call.
Miami fans are idiots.
I think I like these new buckeye posters...
And I would humbly submit they are wrong, but then again in reference to Miami fans that would be redundant...
There's at least one VT fan who disagrees as well. Absolutely terrible call compounded by the passivity with which it was made.
Wait... seriously? They're accusing others of acting entitled?
There's that word again...
Funny, they had the whole off-season to prepare for Navy and then another week before they played us. Not the other way around.
Interestingly, we're 6-1 after Georgia Tech games under Paul Johnson. While the triple-option (or whatever you wanna call it) is difficult to prepare for, it tends not to affect the next game unless someone gets hurt. Also it's not like VT's offense that night was terribly unique or different and I'm not sure that they would've spent much more time practicing against it.
Should have prepared for Sam Rogers, Bucky, and Marshawn Williams instead. And might have prepared for Bud Foster's 4th quarter D.
Loved the article, especially the link to their coaches excuses about losing last years game.
It reminded me of Meyer crying on the sideline after that game-sealing pick-6! Does anyone have a gif of Urban Meyer's tears that they could post!? Please!
Could some of our new anOSU friends weigh in on this please? Im very curious to read what you think about the article/is it legitimate or just trolling?
Not that all their points make sense, but the numbers aren't outrageous like everyone here is thinking.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/29/1003957/chance-of-a-football-...
If the line dips down to +16.5 by kickoff we'll be right at about a 10% shot. And for all of you who are going to say "well the betting public moved the line that high". 1. Vegas doesn't blindly follow the public, or sharps would clean up, RLM exists for a reason. 2. Those win percentage numbers include whatever kind of public swing existed for the games
The article, IMHO, give a lot of credit to you guys. It points out you will have a solid team returning and one of the best defenses we will see. It also points out we will be much improved from last year and thus better able to deal with what you throw at us and we have a lot of talent to rely on so we should give you a good game. It even says although the writer expects a win you could still pull one out. If he left out the 10% comment I think you'd see it differently, but that is such a red flag that it makes it hard to take the article seriously.
I agree with many of the points. You're D will test us but we have a pretty good set of offensive weapons to counter what you throw at us. If you do your slant blocking scheme we will portably go to more TE / crossing routes and play action to counter it and have the talent to pull it off. OTOH, you have the talent to put real pressure on our QB an dif we let you do that then it'll be hard for us to exploit your D's weaknesses since your guys won't have to commit but we'll have to make quick throws while you are still in position to counter.
tl;dr: Fairly balanced but stupid 10% comment throws Hokies into tizzy
1) I do agree with the statement that Ohio State will have a talent advantage against every team they play this year. They proved themselves to be more talented than Alabama and Oregon last year, and with the amount of experience they have returning, I think they'll have the upper hand there in every game (at least regular season).
2) I do not agree with the statement, "That won't happen this year. No surprises," in reference to VT's defensive scheme catching OSU off guard. However, I think while this writer is foolish enough to think the Hokies will come in with a similar scheme, Ohio State's coaching staff isn't.
3) VT will be much improved next year, but I think, in comparison to last year's game, Ohio State's improvement is gigantic. I think anyone could rewatch the Buckeyes' games against Navy, VT, and Cincinnati, followed by the Sugar Bowl and National Championship, and realize that they were watching two vastly different teams - not to mention the fact that our first- and second-string quarterbacks may be ready to go again. So I do agree with the statement, "As much as the Hokies may have improved since beating the Buckeyes last season, Ohio State's leap from that game is immeasurable."
4) With all of that said, I definitely give Virginia Tech more than a 10% chance of winning. I would bet on Ohio State until a line of about VT +9.5 and I'll give the Hokies a 30% chance of winning. I'm not trying to be disrespectful, but I watched us commit 6 turnovers and still beat Alabama and Oregon. So that 30% comes to light if Virginia Tech can capitalize on Buckeye turnovers, missed red-zone opportunities, and a fired up crowd that isn't taken out of it early.
BTW, I'm a current VT grad student and Ohio State graduate (2010). I'm excited for this game like a kid for Christmas morning. And I need to send Cleveland some love - Cleveland has much more going for it than people like to joke.
Thanks for the input. You and Osu78 have been great. I actually agree with the 30% chance, and that's why our fanbase is so amped. We love going against the odds. I'm gonna be super upset if we lose the game, but personally I'm always gonna be on the OSU side of the fence after this series. SCREW Michigan
Funny you should sign off with that - first of all, I agree, and secondly, I've told some friends that if they have too much to drink down here and get into any trouble running their mouths with Hokie fans, they can just say something derogatory about the Sugar Bowl travesty against Michigan to get themselves out of trouble (and also what a sham it was for Notre Dame to get the 2001 Fiesta Bowl over VT).
Now you're just shamelessly pandering for Turkey Legs.
But when you're right, you're right.
OSU graduate, current VT graduate student in statistics? I definitely know you. You went to the game last year right?
Did another statistics graduate student tell you about this blog? If so it was me.
So let me get this straight... Both teams have stout defenses, we return 16 starts evenly split on both sides that beat their team last year, we played in their home stadium and won, we are playing in Lane @ night, and it is the first game of the season where healthy players are ready to go... and you want to say we have a 10% chance? Sorry folks I see no logic here. I hope this gets to our players...
That 10% prediction borders on motivational -- for Virginia Tech! Maybe it will inspire 110% effort.
Go Hokies!
I just think it's funny that there's a site called Cleveland.com
well choke.com was taken so they next best thing was cleveland.
*thinks "I wonder what choke.com actually is"*
*quickly recants thought*
I'd gone with mistakeonthelake.com but that's too long to type...
www.citywithaburningnriverandshitlotdofsnow.com was too long
Official website of this guy, so clearly they're credible:
From living close to Cleveland and taking a visit last summer to some of the latter city's ruins, I can only admit this has gotten funnier.
.
I had not seen that one. That is... awesome
It's kind of annoying that, according to them, OSU is the only team who could improve since the game last year. This is especially odd when you consider how young we were and how Wyatt Teller, Cam Phillips, and others have come into their own since then.
I've said it before, but it's a little bizarre and irksome that people insinuate that Brewer played way above his capabilities that night. He had an average performance for his standards and that might have been the last time he was healthy. He wasn't performing miracles, guys were just open all night. Only on a handful of plays was it the case that no one was open- they simply struggled with our tight ends, slot receivers, and Sam Rogers. It wasn't a one off thing either as it happened to them against good passing attacks (and Michigan) a few other times.
Brewer's QB rating for the Ohio State game- 117.5
Brewer's QB rating for the entire season- 117.4
You aren't wrong. Brewer made a lot of plays that night on 3rd down that he didn't make consistently all year. Clutch performance is a fickle mistress.
He was clutch that night, but burned out the clutch later in the season.
In reality, he'll probably always be clutch, but hopefully a little more conservative/careful. In other words, he needs more than JUST clutch.
You forgot to mention clutch.
You got me.
Isn't that one of those handbags without a strap?
It might have been. Before Brewer redefined it in that Ohio State game last year.
Agreed. He did throw 3 pics that night as well. His third down plays were awesome and kept many drives alive but he did throw 3 interceptions too so obviously not his best game. If we would have lost we would be talking about the interceptions instead of the 3rd down plays.
To be fair, it was 2 picks, 1 lost fumble. And only one of those picks was a really bad decision. The first one he just left the ball too far inside on a deep throw to Bucky.
Side note, not to bemoan what could've been, but could you imagine Logan throwing to Hodges? So much big play potential.... Alas.
When the two teams meet for the second time on primetime tv, they will be both be undefeated. The way I see it, it's 50-50 % chance. Historically though I do like it when the Hokies are overlooked by OSU.
I don't think you understand probability very well. Are you telling me that when Alabama meets north south dakota technical college in the first game of the season, they both have a fifty percent chance of winning because their records are the same?
I mean I doubt it is as low as 10%, but I also think someone has a higher chance to win.
If and I say IF anOSU wins, nobody will really care after week 2 and it will be forgotten... But if VT wins again and pulls the sweep in the head to head matchup... it will never be forgotten! Just want anOSU fans to know what the product could be if this small college in the hills of southwestern Virginia beat the National Champs back to back years... just sayin.
Or that we decided to keep what we killed the second time.
Oooooooo....you wicked!!!
I'm really happy someone picked up what I was putting down there.
I might not have gotten your pop reference, but I sure got your drift.
I agree with you. It would be the story that won't die and we'd have an entire season of "The team that lost to Virginia Tech..." during every game. At least last year we had the "new quarter back replacing the injured star..." storyline but this year it'd be the "Defending National Champions lost..."
OTOH, if you guys lose it'll be more of "Virginia Tech put up a good showing against the defending NC Buckeyes and should do well in the ACC..." Even a close loss would give you a bump because you'd be compared to Oregon and Wisky who didn't keep it close.
I must say you guys are almost in a lose-almost lose situation in that the only way you come out of this game untarnished is in a blowout easily covering the spread. I also have to say, if I was in your shoes, I would probably have just as much confidence as any coming into the game this year after the way the team finished the championship run. Of course being a VT fan and alum, I have blind optimism and maroon tinted glasses so while the 10% chance to win is mathematically correct, I think it will be closer and hope it will at least be exciting to the end.
Hah... No... If we lose all that will be remembered is that we lost and how we lost and why it means we are not a team to ever be taken seriously. We've been down that path before. 2009 we play a close game against Alabama taking a lead into the 4th and afterwards ask any of the talking heads on all of the channels could talk about is how we got our asses handed to us that night, as if we never showed up.
It won't matter if we lose by 50 or by 1... If we lose the media will start crapping all over us, saying this is why the ACC deserves no respect and openly pushing Beamer out the door. It's what they do.
Unfortunately too true. The media talking heads loves to hate on the Hokies.
That's what happens when we don't win big games. As much as people don't want to hear it
Yeah, but even when we do win the big games, it seems the media thinks it is because the other team screwed up.
That wasn't the narrative when we beat OSU. It was about how we applied a lot of pressure and got the best of them and how VT is back. Then after we shit the bed following the game, the revisionist explanation was that OSU must have fucked up.
Either way, if we didn't have such a terrible track record in big games, the media would be less inclined to think that way.
FTFY
Unfortunately no
Apparently we're your guy's ECU -- except without the million-year lock-in.
I never look too much into these articles. To the media, you're as good as your last game. If you've watched SportsCenter during the NBA Playoffs, if one team wins, ESPN will talk about how unstoppable that team is and how the other team stands no chance. Then when the other team wins the next game, it's the other way around.
Ohio State is fresh off a National Championship and 13 straights wins. Tech is coming off a bowl win, but nobody seems to forget the Wake Forest game and the 7-6 record. So, the media is going to give Tech absolutely no chance whatsoever, especially any media outlet in Ohio.
But, when you look at this game from an actual logistical standpoint, Tech has a very good chance to keep this interesting. Lane Stadium is going to be unreal, Tech has the best defensive coordinator in College Football, and the offense should be much better this year than last year.
I'm not saying Tech is going to win. I still think Ohio State is going to win, but it won't be a blowout, and I certainly think that if Tech can keep this close into the 4th quarter, things could get very interesting in Blacksburg.
Till then, let the media talk. Both teams are going to prepare regardless, and this game will be won between the lines and not on a newspaper or website.
I think that the reason we lost that 1% is that OSU does not have to prepare for Navy the whole offseason. Or Not!
We beat OSU in their house with less coaching infrastructure than last year. We have QC support that I expect is already breaking down every strategic down an distance. I am calling the win for VT. We will have more heart in the end and that will be the difference. Imo. I love talking this stuff!
I think that Va Tech loss was great for Ohio State. Painful, but great. It humbled them and showed them how far they needed to go. They got coachable quick. The loss got them to hang together so that they didn't hang separately. It basically set them on a path to the NC. Thank you, but don't do it again!
I try to not exaggerate one way or the other. I am a fan, but there have been many seasons over the last 40 years where I have looked at Ohio State in the pre-season and said, "This team has serious issues here, there, here, and there, and they have depth/experience issues at these 3 position groups." Fellas, I'm just not seeing any of that with this 2015 version. Their 1s are ridiculous pretty much across the board, as is the depth behind them. The few questions they have revolve around TE depth, one DT, one DE, and one CB. They will be breaking in a new RT too, but the 4 guys to his left are all back. Of those questions, the DT is probably one most concerning because it isn't clear that the candidates can perform like Michael Bennett did last year, but they have a bunch of young uns to try if the older ones don't pan out. But as a whole, this is the most impressive looking and great-on-paper team I have seen at Ohio State. They also lost OC Herman, and will have a new game planner and play caller which raises some legit questions.
Ohio State's biggest weakness will not be personell, but things like dealing with complacency, the burden of #1, team unity given the 3 QB situation. etc. I think how they deal with that will determine their season.
But Va Tech, for sure, has their attention and respect - even if the media and some fans have failed to remember the score of last year's game. VT needs a real "decided schematic advantage" (not a fake Weiss one) like they had with Foster's Bear, they obviously need to play well and not turn the ball over, and it will help them a lot if Ohio State doesn't have it's act together on those non-personell issues. Most of what sounds like confidence is some mixture of hope and baseless conjecture from our fans and/or media. No one knows what is going to happen on Sep 7. I am willing to just enjoy watching it play out.
LoveVanOSU
Ohio State's biggest weakness will not be personell, but things like dealing with complacency, the burden of #1, team unity given the 3 QB situation. etc. I think how they deal with that will determine their season.
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Usually, when you don't have significant issues that you know about before the season starts, the problems you find during the season are not the minor ones you expected.
@LoveVanOSU:
You're welcome, but we hope not to oblige you. Hard to believe you guys ever have personnel issues. For fun's sake, what if you got the win by a point last year, do you think you would have seen the same OSU team by year's end?
The 85 scholarship creates depth issues. Unless you hit on every recruit, you will have depth issues, especially when you throw in injuries and transfers. IMO, one of the major reasons Ohio State was able to beat Alabama was because the Tide didn't have enough quality LB's healthy to stop Ezekiel Elliot. I also think Oregon was really hurt by not having quality receivers due to injuries and suspensions. It affects everyone, even the blue bloods who recruit the best players. Adding onto that, what is the difference between a 3 star and a 4, or even 5, star? HS achievement, an inch of height, 10 lbs of weight, a .1 sec of 40 time, and a bunch of human opinion. The list of 5 star guys who couldn't play at the college level is long, as is the list of 2 and 3 star guys who were magnificent.
We win by 1 point last year? What happens? I don't know. Young teams need time and experience to play around their potential. I think the loss was good for them early in the year, but my gut tells me that they still wouldn't have gotten there without two events in late Nov. During the scUM week, one of their teammates crawled into a dumpster and shot himself in the head. In the game, JT Barrett broke his leg. I sense those 2 things drew that team closer together, and allowed them to be better than they were.
I love that you always hear the "It was only Barrett's second start" argument. In his game before they played us he played ok, not great but by no means bad. In every game after our game he played Big 10 player of the year caliber, but apparently week 2 we just got lucky.
well of course we got lucky. We only did so well against him because he had spent the whole summer preparing for Navy's triple option.
Your point is a good one.
I guess from someone who followed him from game 1 thru game 12, you do tend to go toward the idea that if he had faced VT later in the year, he would have done much better. Either experience is a great teacher, or it is meaningless. I don't think it's an insult to VT if you conclude that a guy who broke all kinds of records for TD's, passing efficiency, etc got better as the year went along. You can still credit for VT having a defense, that we all recognize, was very, very good.
I agree, I'm not being ridiculous and saying he didn't get any better. And I think any rational OSU fan will concede how good the VT defense was that game. I'm just tired of seeing "breakdowns" of this years game that kind of just write off what happened last year. And I've seen it way too much, granted it's usually from very stupid people (like the "analysts" on ESPN).
The strange thing is I'm not sure JT will see the field on 9/7! In that case, any comparison and conjecture about how he performs this year vs. last year is a waste of time. Besides, it's not about him. It's about him and his supporting cast.
My belief is that he will start, Cardale will play - a series per quarter or something like that - and Braxton will be used as a slot/WR/RB/situational QB.
While JT did not do well in last year's game, the OSU secondary got torched. Isn't it interesting that no one is making that a central part of the "breakdown"? I guess that's the nature of the QB position, but the VT offense vs. the OSU defense will have some impact on the outcome of this game, won't it?
First let me say its fun to have another OSU fan on here to discuss football in a reasonable way.
You bring up a good point, and one that I think has been overlooked in the entire discussion leading up to the game, namely the VT offense. First, let me preface that by saying even I recognize the ridiculousness of the concept of "overlooking" what has been a bad offense the last few years.
But looking at the game from last year, the VT offense was equally as responsible for that W. The #s don't suggest an above average effort, but the plays were there to be made all day long, and kept being made particularly on 3rd down to extend drives. And that was with in effect the top 4/5 skill position players all being true or redshirt freshman, and a QB making his 2nd start in the system just as JT was.
I think that the Buckeye defense could have a real problem with Bucky Hodges (granted a lot of teams are going to have trouble with him this year), and Ford and Phillips have had another year to develop their skills. The OL will be at least as good as, if not better, than the group that ran out there last year, and Brewer will be healthy, which is something I don't think he was most of last year specifically because of the pounding he took in that game in the Shoe.
While I have no problem with the Buckeyes being favored, I think they do face the very real prospect of playing a team that beat them at home last year, but with perhaps a better defense AND offense than what they ran out last year...on their home field.
No doubt. Hodges is really good, and I do believe VT will be better on both sides of the ball.
Whether we are talking Barrett/Miller/Jones or Brewer - and the guys they have to target, your passing game tends to get crapped up when the QB is getting hit and going down as he is throwing. We saw that with what VT did to JT last year. And we also saw what happens when you can limit the running game. So, the same thing applies on both sides of the ball with both teams this year.
If I'm VT (team/coaching staff member), I'm pulling the "disrespect" card and using it for everything it's worth. OSU will be (last I heard) a double digit favorite in that game. I'd put together a montage of talking heads feeling sorry that the Hokies have to step on the same field with them, juxtaposed to highlights from last year's game. I'd pin this Plain Dealer article up on the bulletin board, and all that kind of stuff. I'd try to have that team foaming at the mouth like mad dogs to get at them.
Fans get upset when their team is disrespected, but coaches fall on their knees and thank God for the gift. :)
VT got dissed all over the place last year. Part of it was untimely breaks, part injury, and part just head scratchers. They did prove they were up to the task in the OSU game, though. They've got plenty of motivation to repeat this year.
There is no question that OSU is also going to come in pretty fired up.
It should be a good game, but one of these teams is going to get a couple of fortunate turns of events, and show up with the better game plan, and I'm really hoping it's VT. Even if that happens, there's no guarantee that VT would win. OSU is chocked with both talent and good coaching.
I think regardless of the outcome it's entirely possible that both teams will end up in their respective conference's CG. I certainly expect tOSU to make it to theirs...I'm cautiously optimistic that VT will make it to the ACCCG but I'm not nearly as confident
EDIT: I guess what I'm trying to say is that both of these teams are going to be pretty good. I think if tOSU wins they'll be undefeated in the regular season. I think if VT wins they will have a 9 or 10 win season with a couple head-scratcher losses
Yeah, I'll be honest - I didn't think there was any way in Hades VT would go into Ohio Stadium and win last year. It doesn't happen unless you are USC, Texas, or the like. I knew VT had talent and great coaching, but not enough to pull that off. A close game, maybe, but they aren't coming out with a win - until they did. Then they had my full respect. :)
There's that old saying, "winning solves everything". Well, it won't fix your marriage, but it will turn disrespect into respect - even if it's given grudgingly - as it often is by CFB fans. But when it comes to VT, I give willingly.
Interesting you should mention "Texas, or the like." I felt that same way when we went to our first Sugar Bowl. Man, first time in New Orleans, first big bowl game for me, I felt honored to just be there. Even the arrogance of some of the Texas fans didn't make me get too high on winning down there, even though I knew we had a really good football team that was hitting on all cylinders. But after that first half, knowing how our defense was playing and how they had just gotten better late in games, I was infused with a sublime feeling of confidence that was proven to be justified. I had always respected our team, just didn't have the historical precedent in mind to feel confident in beating Texas. Damn, it was Texas, for goodness sake!
This just goes to show you that VT has a chance these days of beating anyone, and regardless of being up or down, are not to be taken lightly by opponents, pundits or fans on either side of the ball.
Totally agree. There is a talent gap that can't be closed by coaching, motivation, and the ball bouncing the right way. So, a non power 5 team is not going to beat an elite power 5 team unless something very strange occurs. A team that doesn't show up in the top 50 in recruiting is going to get pounded by a team that regularly shows up in the top 5. But if you are dealing with a smaller talent/quality depth gap, anyone can beat anyone on a given day.