Ok so bear with me. At this point I feel, as I know many of you do, as if I have analyzed everything there is to analyze, read everything there is to read, and watched everything there is to watch. Yet my addiction stands unsated. In as much I decided to pull up last years game and watch the condensed version (again) on youtube during my lunch break. It's only 43 minutes and I'll link it below in case any of you would like to take a gander...
After watching the game I was tempted by one of the recommended videos linking me to Meyer's postgame interview from last year. This link for this video is below...
2014 VT vs. anOSU Urban Meyer Postgame Interview
His comments on our defense left me intrigued. Specifically when he was asked why Elliot had so few carries his response was as follows...
Well there was zero coverage. Yea everybody was within six yards of the line of scrimmage. You know we tried to, there's just two punt block defenders standing right there at the point of attack. We did get some option. One thing the option does is it equalizes one defender. We had a couple big hits and one touchdown by Zeke and some plays in the option game but there's no inside run game when they do that.
Now while this interview occurred almost a year ago, right after the game finished, and before Meyer had any real time to analyze or plan, my question is whether or not any of you thinks that this could point to a potential anOSU game plan for this year? All offseason I have thought that our biggest fear this year should be Elliot but here it seems that Meyer has no faith in the inside run game versus the Bear (Now obviously we all know that Bud will not throw them the exact same look as last year but it will still be some form of the Bear). So all this is to say, what should we expect to see come the 7th? Will they try to exploit the 1v1 coverage downfield (as he also talks about in the video) against the best corner tandem in the FBS? Will they try to option us to death all night? Or will they hold some confidence in the best RB in the league even against the Bear? Or will we see a more even attack?
As you can clearly tell I'm no football analyst but with 13 more agonizing days to wait I needed to create something to keep the conversation going.
Thoughts?
Comments
I think they learned how to attack the bear with counters,draws and sweeps the few weeks after Virginia Tech. Cincy and a few other teams came out and tried the bear and got pummeled.
Now you don't have to tell me that there is a huge difference in those defenses haha. But the coaches are def. not afraid of it anymore and the players said they look forward to facing the bear from now on.
I fully expect Bud will have a completely different wrinkle in 13 days. Hopefully (for my sake) the coaches will be ready to adjust this time in game.
I also say if Zeke doesn't have at least 20 carries then somebody should be fired. Him having only 8 attempts last year was ridiculous (unless he was more hurt than we know).
I think they are watching some ECU film, let the rush come and just throw the ball up or behind the CB to let the receiver stop and jump. You are not going to outrun our secondary (I hope)
That's pretty much what I've been saying all off season. ECU did the fade route to perfection against us, and if ECU can do it with (theoretically) less talent than OSU, then OSU certainly can't take it off the board.
That, and those screen picks ECU was doing all game certainly bugged the hell out of me.
ECU did it with size more than talent. worthy was like 6'5 wasn't he and had a great vertical if I remember.
They were also really only successful going against an injured Facyson.
not the way I remember it, but it could be. I thought they beat every DB we had on the field at some point.
Yeah that's what I remember too.
And re: Size and jump - if that is true, it's mainly the scheme / coverage that should help out with those disadvantages. If you give them outside leverage then you need to be able to (presumably) swat away balls or something like that in order to ensure the ball isn't caught; or perhaps squeeze them more towards the sideline so they land out of bounds.
if i told you worthy didn't score a TD would you believe me?
ECU also had a highly accurate 5th year senior QB who was a master of getting rid of the ball at the last second before getting hit and some tall experienced receivers. He stood in there, read the D for the best place to attack, and put the ball up where only his big receivers could make a play. It was a perfect combination.
Some additional information/stats on the ECU game
ECU 3rd down conversions by quarter: (4/5, 1st); (0/4, 2nd); (0/2, 3rd); (1/4, 4th)
ECU total yards by quarter: (215, 1st); (154, 2nd); (33, 3rd); (119, 4th)
ECU points by quarter: (21, 1st); (0, 2nd); (0, 3rd); (7, 4th). The last score came with 16 seconds left in the game.
Yes, ECU beat the DBs. However, Tech had one bad quarter, not a bad game. I distinctly remember interviews saying that they didn't change anything from the 1st quarter to the 4th, just the ECU receivers quit making plays and our DBs quit having missteps.
They were surprised against us and still inexperienced. I know everyone knows that they won the rest of their games and got a lot better as the year went on, but look at their Phil Steele page for the season. It's frightening.
Look at those game grades on the right. A 74.8 vs VT all the way to the ridiculous 139 vs. Wisky. They avg'd 45 ppg, VT's 1999 team avg'd only 41 (and we trucked everyone). They avg'd 512 yards of offense, we only avg'd 365 last year.
And look at specific games. Early in the season, UMD ran a Bear against them and OSU scored 52, gained 533 (105 more than UMD avg'd giving up). They put 49 on Mich St (who is really good at defense), gaining 568 yards, a whopping 273 more than MSU avg'd giving up (on the road)! 284 yards more than Wisky usually gave up. 225 more than Bama gave up.
In the context of OSU's season, obviously the VT game was an anomaly. Maybe we will get another worse than avg performance again. It's hard to be clicking on offense in week 1. We will be as healthy as ever in this game. We are a great matchup for them. But the scale by which they killed people last year shouldn't be overlooked. Be wary.....or weary. I don't know the difference.
Yes but this isn't the same team that played last year - for them or for us. That's like saying that MSU should've beaten them last year just because they beat OSU the year before that in the conference championship. It's fresh season with some new players - anything can happen.
So, those past stats go out the window. Certainly they're dangerous and we respect them, but I doubt they'll be completely clicking on all cylinders on day 1 either.
While I have not studied the film from those games, I have seen some clips and I cannot remember the other teams running zero coverage with 8 guys in the box. They all tried the bear front but they did not commit like Bud did. Another thing is our defense is very different up front with the gap-fit scheme Bud uses that other teams do not (This has been laid out in many different threads). So while by alignment, they tried things very similar, it was likely a different approach.
Obviously Meyer will come out with a different gameplan expecting us to do something similar, stacking the box and making them throw, but how drastic of a change will that be?
lol
I think you mean wary...weary is tired or fatigued...wary is cautious
Remember ECU's last touchdown, they had 5 Wide Receivers and we were forced to cover all of them. Leaving the QB basically open to score. IF tOSU does anything, it will be that, so JT Barrett can make runs since we will have guys away from the QB. Perhaps some delayed runs
I thought the last TD was a QB sneak right at the 1 yard line, but it wasn't a 5 WR spread.
We can all agree that Bud will have something different this time around, but if for some reason he plays the exact same defense as we did last year, for the entire game, here's how OSU beats us:
1. Outside Option (evidence by Zeke's TD in last year's game).
It started to work for them in the 2nd half, when I'm assuming the coaches made Barrett realize that he needs to hold the ball a little longer, to make the defender commit to him before he pitches. Only issue for them last year, this started to work too little, too late and they were running out of time. Thus, OSU had to go into pass mode.
2. WR Hitch or Slant routes (evidence of the long TD scored against Facyson)
Treat the short passing game (quick routes) no different than 4-5 yd runs on 1st and 2nd down. Eventually, you'll break one.
I would also include deep passing routes (go routes/fades/corner) but I don't see that being very effective against our secondary. Also, our Dline was in Barrett's face before he had time to let the play develop. Against another team, this would be option 3.
Basically everything is about getting the ball to the outside as quick as possible because 8-9 defenders will be in the middle of the field in the Bear defense. Expect Urban Meyer to try and get the ball outside of the tackles as much as possible and then, once successful, use fakes (jet sweep motions, WR screens) to spread out our guys just enough to create space for internal runs.
The Bear defense isn't unstoppable. We were able to confuse them in the 1st half and they made adjustments during halftime. Their offense started to be effective in the second half but the convenience of being up by 2 TDs, and running out of time, helped determine what plays they could/should run.
Two points:
1) Don't forget how poorly we are at bringing down a good running qb when he scrambles and we are in man coverage - that has been an achille's heel for years now.
2) Since your post says "this is how OSU beats us" - I think EVERYONE seems to be talking about Foster's Dplan, when IMO, equally as important in our win last year was our offense's ability to convert 3rd downs and score early - so that's another way for them to beat us - hold us early and the air will leak out of the stadium.
I'm not denying there are a lot of factors in this game to determine who wins. Obviously, our offense has to produce or else we won't win (see Wake Forest).
However, this post originated from Meyer's comments about the Bear Defense. I laid out the most appropriate "offensive gameplan" (at least in my slightly educated opinion) to beat the bear defense.
If Foster plays the same bear defense as much as he did last year, which I don't think he will, we could be in for a long night. That's why a lot of us think that he'll use it but with slight modifications. Will those modifications be so much that it can't be considered a "bear" defense and is now something else? Tune in on Sept. 7th to find out.
You may want to rewatch last year's game if that's what you think happened. There were 2 times during the game we were up 14 points. The first time they came back & tied us, which I would have to assume is the point where their "offense started to be effective" at that point our defense shut them down and we went up 14 again. They most certainly didn't "run out of time". If anything the game was headed in the opposite direction.
I see what you did there.
I think UM will try to establish the inside power running game and then move to the outside/option running game. If either are established we are in for a long night. If our D forces them to pass and JT can connect on a few we may be in for a long night. If JT figures out he can run/scramble for big yards again we are in for a long night. With that said: VT owns the night! Exit light enter night and you will become the victim of the hokies on opening night!! Sorry for that sad attempt....had 2!
I'm sticking with what I said last year. Our Defense (one of the best in the nation) matches up really well with OSU's style of Offense (option style/spread) and I do not see any reason why we cannot win. Plus, If our Offense is half as good as I expect it will be this year. We are in for a good night in the burg!!
The biggest thing last year was I don't think they prepared for a minute to play against a zero coverage Bear. I don't think it even crossed the OSU coaching staff's minds that VT would have the stones to go all out like that. It was a very risky strategy. In the weeks after that teams tried to use that as a blueprint to beat us and we had spent time preparing for it...it didn't go well for those other teams. They usually had to abandon it after getting severely burned on the first 2 or 3 possessions of the game. Now, I know that VT is a significantly more talented defense than any of the other teams that tried it, but it was a combination of not being prepared for it and VT aggressively attacking a green offensive line and QB who was getting some of his first PT in two years (had a season ending injury in HS). It really was a ballsy, but brilliant gameplan from VT's coaching staff.
I don't think it would be wise to try the same thing again this year. Ohio State would be prepared for it and they're not as green as they once were. A lot of times with Urban and Tom Herman last year we'd feel like they tried to overthink things too much. They'd make an intelligent football decision, ie - trying to beat the zero coverage in the air, but we would pine for them at times to just impose their will on teams and run Zeke down their throat. Granted, Zeke and the o-line were unproven at the time in last year's game, but even still throughout the year after we saw what they were developing into. Again, I don't think it would be smart to try the same defensive gameplan. Bud Foster is one of the very best in the business. I'd like to think he'd have the same rationale. What I do still expect is that, especially given a whole offseason to prepare, Bud will have another tremendous gameplan in place for Ohio State and will give them fits. I personally feel like this is going to be a good, close game.
Well then, the OBVIOUS answer is to run it again.
I mean, UM is probably thinking, "there's no way Foster has the balls to run the EXACT same defense as last year". So you prepare for 100 different other defensive fronts, and UH OH. He just threw rock 2x in a row!
VT wins, everyone in orange is happy.
Maybe if they want to have a package where they show it for a possession or two just to give Ohio State something to think about. I think it would be very unwise to try to run that defense again against one of the most explosive and experienced returning offenses in the country. The difference from last year was none of the players had seen it or ever prepared for it. After that game they spent half the season preparing for it because they were waiting for someone to try it again. It went very very poorly for anyone who tried it again. Bud's smarter than that and I have no doubt he'll have something new up his sleeve. But if they want to try it again? Cool with me.
Bud will surely have some new tricks up his sleeve but I'm confident he will still be running some form of the Bear as this is the base strategy for most all Bud packages. One thing that I found interesting from the video though is that Meyer clearly recognized what was happening early, but the players just weren't able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the defense. Obviously he made a mistake in thinking that he couldn't run between the tackles at all but it was interesting in re-watching the game how much Barrett threw into the single man coverage down field, and for different reasons, just wasn't able to get it done. Outside of Zeke only getting 8 carries I think anOSU's game plan was fine, the players (primarily the offensive line) just couldn't get it done. If anOSU QB had actually had a little bit of time in the pocket to throw it downfield into the single coverage a little more I think it would have been a different game.
This however is ultimately why I'm unfazed when people refer to anOSU defending the Bear well throughout the rest of the season. Bud's system is intrinsically a high risk, high reward system which absolutely depends of having a dominant pass rush and quick, effecting blitzing (in reference to defending the pass). While anOSU's O-line obviously improved leaps and bounds as the season went on, they also didn't face another Bear defense that was as aggressive or talented as ours, or that was able to bring near as much pressure as ours was. On Sept 7th if one of the best O-lines in college football can subdue one of the best D-lines/pass rushes in college football then the good guys will be in for a long night. If not... I'm not necessarily calling for the win, but Barrett, Jones, or whoever is under center will be in for another very long night.
Bud will run more Bear because he believes in his corners. Now Facyson is healthy and their WR corps is depleted.
The Bear wasn't the only thing we ran last year (see Kyshon Jarrett's interceptions).
I say run the Bear until OSU proves they can beat it!! If it's not broke don't fix it. I know BF will have different looks/tricks etc but why go away from your bread and butter until you have 2. OSU may have seen a lot of the Bear last season but all Bear's are not created equally. Either way I look forward to a great game with two well coached teams!!
But in all seriousness, I agree. I highly doubt the biggest selling point for Bud was that no one would expect the bear. He picked that defense based on the offense anOSU runs and his personnel. If anOSU can counter it with scheming and excellent execution, then let them scheme and execute. If they do, we adjust. If they don't we win.
I kinda hope Bud runs the bear and anOSU isn't able to counter it so I can just see Bud laughing maniacally on the sidelines.
I mean, he certainly chose it because he wanted to exploit an inexperience line and backfield. It was a good gameplan. Going zero coverage for large stretches is a major gamble, though...and it just so happened to seem apparent that the OSU players didn't seem to know how to handle it. I don't think Meyer had any thought or intentions on doing much practice work against zero coverage and all out aggression. Not saying he chose it because he was thinking, Urban would NEVER think of this! I think he chose it to exploit the inexperience and it just so happened that they couldn't figure out how to react to it.
This is EXACTLY what i have been telling my OSU pals all summer long. Just because you know what D someone is going to run doesn't mean you can beat it. Everyone in the NFL knows what defense the Seattle Seahawks are going run. Their defense isn't very complicated at all, but nobody can beat it because they (Seahawks) have great players that execute perfectly. Same principle applies here. You can prepare to beat the Bear, but if your wide receivers can't get separation and you are being killed by the blitz it doesn't matter. Despite not having the element of surprise, I actually believe this is an even better game to use the Bear against Ohio State. With all the WR/H-back suspensions Ohio State is going to have to rely on complete rookies at WR. I think it is a no brainer that you have to try and make these unexperienced players beat you. Run the Bear, eliminate the threat of Elliott, and trust your corners on an island against unproven receivers.
Bud will likely follow this and just add a wrinkle, similar to what he does on a yearly basis with GT. Add something to catch them off guard. Typical Bud Foster.
I agree to an extent, but it's pretty ballsy to go zero coverage for extended periods of time. It's not like the Seahawks base defenses in that regard. It's something that should be taken advantage of by a good offense...and I sure hope we can consider Ohio State a good offense at this point. I don't think they can play as aggressively as they did last year and get away with it.
Thanks for the reply, really good insight. I think you're definitely correct that the players didn't really execute for OSU. I still think the good reason for that is that you had a bunch of unproven players walking into a situation they had no preparation for. Don't think they knew what they were in store for. And were some things I feel like Meyer/Herman could've tried to do misdirection-wise to counter the aggressiveness, but I just don't recall seeing it (I will admit, I haven't watched that game again since the night they played). I'll say that they had games like VT last year and Penn State last year (and other games in previous seasons) where the defense kept conceding 3rd downs and the offense was kept on the sideline. Then when they'd get their shot, they'd waste a few possessions here or there. Before they knew it they're in a dogfight at the end of the game and they almost lost to PSU in similar fashion. A bad turnover here or there and next thing you know the clock's running out. Almost like they keep looking around like, "okay..so what do we do? Who's going to do what and make something happen? This is typically where we just turn to Braxton and let him run." I definitely don't think OSU executed in the VT game last season...but I still lean toward giving the bulk of the credit to VT and their coaches for exploiting that. That issue slowly evaporated for OSU throughout the season.
Previously, in games like this Meyer used to fall back on a safety net...what we would call the "Braxton Save Us" offense. In tight games it would turn into Miller counter trey left, Miller counter trey right, middle draw. That's when he'd hit you with Carlos Hyde who'd plow for 10 yards a pop after the defense was fixated on Miller...and for the most part it always worked. Urban didn't have that certainty of a safety net to resort to...so they just kept sticking with the gameplan. The o-line was too unknown, Zeke was too unknown and Barrett was too unknown. We saw Meyer turn to Barrett the same way he used to with Miller against PSU and OSU just started pounding the ball with Barrett and Zeke and Barrett won his trust with a gutty performance down the stretch. They didn't have that trust earlier in the season and didn't seem to know where to turn to. I wouldn't be surprised to see BF show some of that zero coverage again...but I'd just be awfully worried about how that might turn out this time. A missed assignment, broken tackle and Zeke's off to the races. Quick slant to 6'3" 215lb Mike Thomas, one broken tackle and he's gone. Quick edge screen to 220lb Miller, one on one with a DB with the ball in his hands...yikes. A better, more experienced version of Barrett, gets the ball out quick and accurately. All of those options were either total unknowns or unavailable last year. Would be surprised to see zero coverage stick around for very long. I still have no doubt that BF will have a tremendous gameplan in place and this is going to be closer than people outside of the Hokie fan populace think.
Bud isn't going to line up and have the same assignments every play and wait for OSU to figure it out. What makes Bud such an effective DC is that he disguises his defenses so well and then takes risks at critical moments to create big plays. I expect him to use his experienced defense to his advantage and mix things up all night, including playing zero coverage at times.
I'm theorizing that Bud will do one of two things:
1. Bud disguises the Bear as something slightly different, or
2. Bud disguises another formation as the Bear or switches out of the Bear.
no bear here. just a little black rain cloud
New Defense: THE WILD BEAR
It's like the Wildcat but for your defense.
I kinda think the wild bear is where we direct snap it to Tim Settle and let him go bowling for linebackers.
Just as a fan of football, I'm excited to see what he does. I'm wondering if he'll have some sort of wrinkle or wildcard. This game needs to happen already.
Foster will undoubtedly be playing some version of aggressive coverage (I'd be shocked to see two deep safetys besides obvious passing downs), bear front or not. Regardless if he has 2 tackles covering the center, the best way to beat this OSU team is to sell out on the inside run. Take your chances with our depleted wr depth. Problem is Wisconsin tried that last year, and couldn't stop either.
I expect to see Urban employ more option/slash passing into the week one playbook. Look out fro what Auburn has run the past few years where the QB reads the DE and can either hand off to the HB, cut upfield himself or pass to the outside receiver. It's a tough play to defend and we have ran it only a handful of time under Urban.
You mean GT's triple option offense? We've dealt with that before..