Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Brian and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.
If you haven't already heard, the Virginia Tech Hokies will be opening up the 2015 season at home against the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes on Labor Day night. A month after the Buckeyes clinched their first national title since the Maurice Clarrett era, the odds for the opening week tilt with the Hokies opened at OSU -19. While the spread has slowly edged lower and lower in favor of the good guys, "Vegas" looks to be holding firm at a minimum two-score differential heading into Monday night.
You all know the story with Ohio State. Four key players — including top NFL prospect DE Joey Bosa &mdash suspended for the opener. Talented wideout Noah Brown lost for the season two weeks before kickoff. Three Two potential starting quarterbacks. An extremely talented running back. Urban Meyer's spread-based attack. A more mature, simpatico offensive line. A nasty defense. Depth. Talent. An entitled fanbase. A recipe for disaster, if you're a Hokies fan, right? Well, we all know how that shook out last season...
How will the Hokies fare against the "vaunted Ohio State defense?" How will Urban Meyer's attack fare against Bud Foster's defensive unit? How will Hokie Nation fare if Enter Sandman sees some added flavor? Time to toss around some thoughts and make some bad decisions. On to the lines!
Over/Under 250 Rushing Yards for the Ohio State Offense
Brian: This all depends on who you think will play quarterback for the Buckeyes. One would assume that J.T. Barrett would throw the ball less than Cardale Jones (although with Urban Meyer you never know). I think Barrett plays the whole game, and I think this hits the over. I know the Hokies held them to 108 yards last year, but this is an entirely different OSU team. I think they'll move the ball much better than in 2014.
Pierson: Over, but barely. After Virginia Tech held the Buckeyes to 108 rushing yards last September, Ohio State ran for 250-plus in all but 3 games to close out the season. The suspensions and injuries to most of the receiving options creates uncertainty, but it's not like they don't have talent waiting in the wings (unless of course their youngsters have a case of the drops similar to the Hokies' performance against Alabama two years ago). I think Urban will have his quarterback(s) air it out, but I expect the spread option system we see Monday night to be favoring the run behind Ezekiel Elliott & Co.
True or False? J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller will each attempt at least one pass.
Brian: Faaaaaalse, no way Urban gets that creative. Don't get me wrong, I think he wants to break 100 this game, but I don't think he'll do it with trick plays. And as I mentioned above, I'm not sure we'll see both quarterbacks once the final decision has been made. But also, Braxton Miller has spent months tirelessly getting prepared to play a position other than quarterback. His head coach is such a disgustingly prepared tactician that he may just want to make you think that his former Heisman finalist could throw it every time he touches the ball, but never actually do it.
Pierson: True. Here's why: (1) Meyer is going to try and pull out all the stops after the whoopin' Bud's D laid on the Buckeyes last year, and I think one of those plays results in a Braxton Miller pass; (2) While I think Barrett gets the majority of the snaps, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Jones gets a series if Barrett struggles in the first half. This would be ridiculous — I honestly just spent 10 minutes trying to talk myself out of writing "true" on account of how preposterous it sounds — but after spending 8 months waiting for this game, ridiculous seems logical at this point...
Over/Under 4.5 Sacks for VT Defense.
Brian: Over. I'm not exactly sure how Bud will do it, but I do know that we'll see a lot of the front four as well as a lot of Deon Clark in that backfield. Again this all goes down the tubes if the Buckeyes run the ball 75 times, but assuming that they'll have to drop back eventually Dadi and company will be back there too.
Pierson: Over. Despite all of the talk from the OSU faithful, I'm taking our defensive line over their offensive line until proven otherwise. Combine that fearsome foursome with sporadic blitzing from the secondary and Deon Clarke off the edge, and I think we see at least 5 sacks.
Over/Under 1.5 Touchdowns for Bucky Hodges.
Brian: Probably under. It really all depends on what Scot Loeffler's plan is when his unit gets inside the twenty, and how many times they do so. Bucky will have the chance to score twice, but I think it's a much more likely that he ends the night with zero touchdowns than a pair of them.
Pierson: Under. Warning! Obligatory Jimmy Graham Comparison Incoming! We have to treat every game this season the same way you approach your fantasy team with Jimmy Graham, right? You expect Bucky to score at least one touchdown each week so you can bank your 15 points and spend the rest of your time stressing out over that last minute decision you made at running back. So pencil me in for one Temuchin touchdown, but the second one is a little tougher to stand behind. Don't get me wrong, I'm of the opinion you throw jump balls to him every time you're inside the five. I'm accounting for the Loeffler Factor, which means he will think they think he's throwing to Bucky, so he will make it look like he's throwing to Bucky, but then maybe he should throw to Bucky because they'll think he thinks they think he's throwing to Bucky, but then what if they think he thinks they think he thinks they think he's throwing to Bucky...I have a headache. You get the idea.
Over/Under 0.5 Non-Offensive Touchdowns.
Brian: Over. Each team gets one. If I had to guess, Travon McMillian or Greg Stroman take a kick back and the Buckeyes pick Brewer off and bring it home for six. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State scores two themselves. Remember, Tech is going to have to use a lot of new guys on their coverage teams, which could spell disaster.
Pierson: Over. Who scores? I have no idea. Admittedly, I'm scarred by Christion Jones and the Alabama game. That can't happen again, right? Right?! I feel confident that one of our young burners — either Stroman or McMillian — has a big return. Simply put, big games on big stages during the first week of the season means you've got a lot of nervous kids out there (especially on special teams), and chances are high someone busts an assignment or makes a fatal mistake.
Who Finishes With the Most Carries for the Hokies?
Brian: As much as I would love the J.C. Coleman experience to continue after his, let's just call it surprising, finish to 2014, I think we all know that Trey Edmunds ends up the bell cow, at least in week one. Everyone I know who's watched practice thus far has said that Edmunds looks like a machine, and the best back available for Labor Day. It wouldn't surprise me all that much, though, if McMillian ended up as the leading rusher simply by breaking off a single long one.
(No, my expectations for the Hokies' rushing performance is not very high.)
Pierson: Excuse me while I go spin my miniature Shane Beamer running back carousel...I'm going to go with Trey Edmunds. I think he's got the make-up to handle the larger workload, and I think his game matches up well against the Buckeyes. With all that being said, I'm really looking forward to seeing what Travon McMillian can do with the carries he (hopefully) gets. I think he has the ability to be an x-factor come Monday.
Over/Under 10.5 Shots On the ESPN Feed of Frank Beamer Fiddling With His Nose.
Brian: Hard over. Hard. It's a big game, which means two different things: 1. roughly 145 in-game time outs. 2. A billion shots of both coaches with infographics. Are you trying to tell me that Frank Beamer, king of the snot rocket, won't get caught picking his nose over ten times?
LOCK THIS UP.
Pierson: NO YOU LOCK IT UP! Over. I have a co-worker who has a nervous tick of sorts that causes him to sniffle. He sniffles incessantly when he gets worked up, and he's a proud Italian from New Jersey, so you can imagine how often the needle passes into the red. Maybe Frank suffers from a similar affliction. Maybe he just needs a nose trimmer to take care of all of those party favor hairs older gentlemen regenerate at warp speed. Whatever it is, you can bet your kid's college fund that every time ESPN needs a Frank shot where he's not bent out of shape because of a holding call, he's going to the schnoz.
Matchup Over/Under: 53 Points
Brian: Over, and I think I may actually bet this one in real life. Last year's game felt like a defensive slugfest, and they still beat this over (by a point, but still). It's the first game of the year, coverages will break down and there will be other lapses that lead to points. There will definitely be more scoring than Tech fans would be comfortable with, and it will probably take at least 35 points for either side to win.
Pierson: Over. I think this will be an absolute slugfest, but given the stage and aforementioned nerves, points will be there for the taking. The Hokies' defense is superb, but we've been prone to the big play in recent years and Ohio State's offense is built for big plays. Along a parallel track, I feel confident that our offense has the weapons necessary to put points on the board. In summary: Points.
Spread: Ohio State (-12)
Brian: Last year I picked the Buckeyes (11 point favorites) to cover at home. Now both teams are better, and the game is in Blacksburg. I think that Urban Meyer's merry band of five-stars ends up winning by two scores, anywhere between 10 and 14. So I'll say the cover, despite the amount of effort the Hokies throw into this one.
(Side note: I'm absolutely not reverse jinxing them. At all. No way. I really, truly believe that. What's a reverse jinx anyway?)
Pierson: Coming into this game, the focus has been on the Hokie defense versus the Buckeye offense. Despite last year's herculean defensive performance by the good guys, Urban's crew still managed to put up 21 points. In short, Ohio State is going to score points regardless of how lights out the D plays. To me, the bigger question is how well our offense plays against their talented (and seemingly forgotten) defense. The Hokies' talented youngsters have grown up considerably since the last time these two teams met, which gives me a lot of confidence that they can stand up to the challenge.
If I were betting on this game — which I'm not, because (A) it would break my personal rule of betting on my favorite team(s) and (B) we're not promoting gambling or anything — and the line moved below Ohio State minus-13, I would take the points in a heartbeat. Once the game creeps over 13.5, I would consider putting my money on the Buckeyes. Not because I don't believe the Hokies will win, but because — barring any major injuries or suspensions — I expect the line to move north between now and Monday as the sharps start betting at the lower spread. If we're removing our hearts from the equation here and talking value at OSU (-12), I would take Virginia Tech and the points.
True or False? Metallica shocks the world and plays Enter Sandman, live, to lead the Hokies out of the tunnel.
Brian: Probably false. But you know what? Give it to me. WHIT BABCOCK IS A MAN OF MIRACLES AND HE GETS THIS DONE TOO.
Pierson: For years, after every "Enter Sandman" entrance, I've been "that guy" who mutters to their buddy, "Gosh, when are they going to be able to get Metallica to play this live?" If there was EVER an opportunity for it to happen, it would be on Labor Day night. The stars have aligned perfectly: ESPN and College Gameday (Light) will be there for a primetime matchup featuring the defending national champions during a perfectly time hiatus in Metallica's international tour. America has seen ESPN produce the Hokies' entrance a number of different ways. The only way that you can take it to the next level is to have James Hetfield & Co. appear on the northwest lawn, directly above the tunnel and start strumming the greatest guitar riff in college football. Do I think it happens? Sadly, no. Do I hope it does? Absolutely. If it does...welp...someone better check the local Richter Scale in the morning.
Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.
Comments
Hedging on the Metallica bet: they record a video performance of Enter Sandman for our massive scoreboard, in lieu of the normal audio-only song. So not live, but something special.
Could you imagine? "Hi, we're Metallica. Start jumping!"
Well, I know they already have that (was at the game when it was first used). I'm thinking it would be cool if they went one step further...
Ah, never seen it.
how do you embed youtube videos here?
Click the "Share" tab below the video, then the "Embed" tab, then copy and paste the HTML that it gives you.
I appreciate the effort, but that video was really annoying. They liked to play it between the "LET'S GO! HOKIES!" and Enter Sandman, which really screwed up the transition. If they do something similar, I just hope they keep the segue smooth.
edit: nevermind
If Metallica plays, it would be a Festivus miracle.
I look forward to Luther Maddy airing his grievances in the buckeye backfield.
... and feats of strength.
Featuring Wyatt Teller.
This is a great addition. Awesome guys, good read
Over on 250?!? Heellll No. GT doesn't do that as often on us either!
They'll get - 190 - if they win that is. If we win, then it'll be less. Much less.
dunno man, Elliot terrifies me. We'll have to build an early lead to force Meyer to abandon the run game or we could be in for a very rough night at the hands of that RB.
The success of their run game depends on the success of their passing game. I still would take the under on that though. 250 is a lot of yards. Unless Barrett breaks a long run, which is possible, I don't see it happening.
IF they win, they'll have average rushing yards (by there standards) but gashed us through the air.
No way over 250. If they do it's because their passing game has 75 yards and their QB is running for his life while VT is up by 10.
I know almost nothing about betting on sports, but I do like to bet on horses occasionally. I only had a few bucks in my horse betting account over the weekend so I made just one bet on the Travers Stakes on Saturday. I didn't win, and it left me with under $1 in my account. I was bored on Sunday and just messing around on my computer, so I bet a $0.10 superfecta at Monmouth Park. I actually hit it and it payed $17.60. I followed that up with a $2 win bet that payed $18.50.
All that being said, since I am on such an incredible win streak right now, I am going to empty my 401k and take all of the gambling advice above. Thank you in advance for my early retirement.
Dude no joke - I've got some inside scoop info! #Sources!
But first, what's your bank account number? Need to make a small deposit to ensure the transaction works first.
I think Bud will load up the box with OSU having to go with young/inexperienced WR's due to the suspensions/injuries. I don't doubt that EE is a monster, but I'd take the under at 250 (I'd guess they'll hit the 175-225 range, though).
Gotta watch those TEs though.
When I first saw the line drop to -12 I thought that it would be a good deal on OSU, and then I saw a lot of money going in on OSU. Gamblers know, put your money on the other side of the public. So, for a reason other than I want the Hokies to win by 1000, I'm throwing my money on VT to beat the spread.
I actually almost started a thread on this topic myself. If you absolutely had no choice but to bet the farm, or your life savings (assuming that unlike me, you had more than enough for a six pack and a slim jim), who would you bet on? Obviously it's heart vs head to some extent, but really, if it would change your life for the better/worse, who would get your nod? I can think of a lot of reasons to bet on the Hokies, but I've also been a fan since 1968, so reality does factor in. Same question last year? Buckeyes, no debate. The obvious things that are different this year are the venue, the experience, the fact that we beat them last year. But, the big but, is that they've seen us, they're experienced at big games in big venues, their depth chart reads like our recruitment dream team, and the wise guys in Vegas aren't in it for sentimental reasons. Since I responded, I must choose, and I guess if I were forced to bet, it'd be on the Buckeyes, straight up. Points-wise, though, the choice gets tougher. I think I'd flip a coin. We're capable of beating them, capable of losing to them, but unless the whole thing gets out of whack as Frank would put it, I think I'd bet the Hokies to beat the spread but not the Buckeyes, and then rely upon the kindness of my more level headed friends to be able to avoid bankruptcy in my dotage, which begins in two weeks.
I've always been a fan who was willing to wait and see what happens as opposed to predicting what will happen. But I enjoy these kinds of discussions and hearing what others think.
I agree with B and P on a lot of those. I hope they are not right about the sacks.
Re: OSU rushing: I re-watched the Sugar Bowl last night, specifically looking at how Ohio State handled those "tree stumps" against the run. At the beginning of the game it was tough sledding between the tackles, but OSU attacked the edges. By the end of the game, the OL was opening big holes for EZE. The Ohio State OL went against last year's OSU DL in practice and this year's - which is thought to be one of the top units. So, I think they will run the ball, but I expect the VT defense to have plenty of moments of its own.
I have felt this was a 1-2 score margin game in favor of my guys, but I don't think that will be the margin til late. And I don't think it will be that high scoring. I'm thinking 24/28-17/21 either way.
The game only gets away if Ohio State's offense is just ridiculous and VT can't do anything on offense. I don't expect either to be the case. I think if Tech can get up by a score or two in the first half, the pressure builds on the #1 team, cinch to be in the playoff, etc, etc. and the Hokies will have a really good chance to open 2015 with a bang. FWIW
100%. Momentum will be huge if that happens for us. I think there's more momentum for us if we go up than if you go up early. I only say that because while I believe your players will be playing with revenge in mind, being down would get frustrating and lead to errors. Coaches don't want to be embarrassed again either. Whereas with our team, we're down to the #1 team in the nation and so we're just going to keep doing what we do and fight. Perhaps that's a homer thought to assume that our team wouldn't be affected, but I think the pressure of being #1 with such high expectations would affect you guys more if you're playing catch-up.
gee, that's never happened before
Its really cool how all the legit and nice OSU fans seem to have come to our boards to post. Well said sir, I'd feel confident saying that's the general feeling from this fanbase. One or two score (leaning more toward 10 than 14) gap for OSU win seems most likely. We won't know until we play the game, but quick scores by VT to get the lead like last year seem like the best shot at a win. Knowing this, we expect a dogfight and close loss...we'll keep hoping for another win.
I wouldn't say quick scores last year. Brewer was intercepted on the first possession. It wasn't a fluke where Tech got up big early and then just hung on. They took the Buckeyes punches and delivered some back.
When I "quick" in reference to our offense, it has an entirely different meaning than most offenses...quick for us is more than 7 pts per half recently...
For the record...I'm Full Whitt!
I had a weird thought a few early mornings ago in my chronically sleep deprived brain.
I saw a hazy scoreboard that said 'OSU 17, VT 41.'
I'm not saying that will happen, just reporting what my brain did.
The prophet has spoken!
My doctor said "My Hokies". Ok then.
I had a bizarre dream about a month ago where VT lost by some really strange score (11-8). It was a strange dream for lots of reasons, but that weird score really stuck with me.
I had an awful dream where I lost my ticket, ended up scalping a ticket, and then Brewer tore his ACL on the first play and then we lost by that god awful score line being predicted on 11W (63-14).
Hum...FG FG FG Safety? Cut back on the mood enhancing drugs and alcohol! Wait that is what I am doing right now! Lord please deliver game time.
OT; I started a thread a few months ago on Google Hang Out with the replay of osu game last year. There is one huge douche call VaWolfhunter that won't go away.
My favorite scoreline is VT: 31 Visitor: 7, but I'll take this just as well.
i preferred 38-0, bro
I should have specified home scoreline
Lane North is our home-away-from-home so your argument is invalid :p
VT 28 osu 27
I had a weird dream that shai got redshirted and through this "sacrifice" we won vs osu.
Just what I was thinking Pierson...Love it!
"Pierson: Excuse me while I go spin my miniature Shane Beamer running back carousel..."
Going over to W11 to see the frenzy.
You need to see this. All class!
"Ohio State will join Virginia Tech on Monday night in wearing a special decal to honor the victims of the WDBJ-7 victims"
Have seen nothing but " I think our guy will beat that VT defender...ect. No douche bs. and all would be good TPK'ers. Metrics is the word. Not going up, be hospitable and give them a leg.
How about these numbers? (Sourced from Hokiesports.com)
Games played against Ohio State: 1-0
Games played on September 7: 3-3
Games played on Mondays: 3-3 (2 Labor Day games, 4 bowl games)
Games played on Labor Day: 1-1
Games played at home on Labor Day: 1-0
For those curious, the previous Sept. 7 games are 2013 Western Carolina, 2000 at East Carolina, 1996 at Akron, 1995 Boston College, 1991 at NC State, and 1985 Richmond. We won the three most recent ones, and lost the first three.
so the trend is to win? or good things come in threes? i mean ThrEes...