By the (Advanced) Numbers: Ohio State

It's hard to imagine a more highly-anticipated game for the Hokies since the BCS title game in 1999. Ohio State will be determined to prove that last year was a fluke, and Virginia Tech will be at least as determined to prove the opposite on a national stage. Emotions are obviously running high on both sides. The atmosphere inside Lane Stadium will be electric — if you don't get goosebumps in the opening notes of Enter Sandman you're not human.

Adding to that anticipation isn't a sense that Virginia Tech is in the national picture again, but rather that they could be. While it would be perfectly reasonable to expect an 8-4 season, the ceiling in 2015 feels so much higher, and it doesn't seem completely irrational to talk yourself into the possibility of running the table. But those thoughts all start with one major obstacle: beating Ohio State. Do that, and 2014 be damned, you'll be talking yourself OUT of an undefeated regular season.

So how do the numbers say we should fare against Ohio State?

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech remains undefeated to this point in the season. As was seen in the season preview, the predicted score difference and odds of winning each remaining game are:

* Note that the predicted score difference for FCS games are roughly estimated and not based on computer ratings

The odds of each possible regular season win total are:

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

The spread has moved around quite a bit since it initially opened with Ohio State as a 20.5-point favorite. Heavy betting on Virginia Tech pulled that down to a more reasonable 14 points, and more recently suspensions on the Buckeyes side of the ball have moved it even lower. The odds of a 11-point favorite winning are 21.0%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages based on how the teams finished in 2014:

Although these are based on 2014, it would be unreasonable to expect any large changes for either team. Both return many starters, and teams can only move so much in a single offseason. I think it's reasonable to expect the Buckeye offense to be much better than the Hokies and both defenses to be very, very good.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. Note that all statistical ratings for this preview are based solely on 2014.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

Let's be honest: any anticipation of the Virginia Tech offense having any success against Ohio State begins with an assumption that there will be substantial improvement in the play of the offensive line and quarterback. Otherwise, the fact that Tech is among the worst in every offensive rating and OSU is among the best in the corresponding defensive categories should tell you everything you need to know about how the game will go. As much attention as the Buckeye offense gets, it's the defense that is really concerning even without Bosa.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Buckeye defense:

To summarize, we finished 2014 among the worst offenses even in personality stats, and the Ohio State defense finished among the best.

The No. 88 Virginia Tech offense was closest in personality to:

1. North Texas
2. UTSA
3. South Florida

The No. 2 Ohio State defense is closest in personality to:

1. Wisconsin
2. LSU
3. Michigan

When Ohio State Has the Ball

While the result of the game is more likely to depend on the Hokie offense versus the Buckeye defense, it's the other units that will be most anticipated in their battle — here we will have a top 5 offense against a top 5 defense and realistically both could actually be the best in the country. Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Based on last year, success for the Ohio State offense will most likely come on the ground, especially given how they finished down the stretch. But given that these are how the teams finished last season, and have not accounted for who returns and who is new, it would be foolish to read too much detail into them. I'd expect this to be a real struggle on both sides featuring some of the most talented players in the country — there are multiple future NFL starters on the field.

As for personality traits:

It's difficult to be both explosive and methodical, so the poor rate of methodical drives is not exactly a condemnation or weak spot for the Buckeyes; rather, it reflects how easily they move the ball as they rarely need 10 or more plays on a single drive.

The No. 11 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Utah State
2. Temple
3. Florida

The No. 1 Ohio State offense is closest in personality to:

1. Western Kentucky
2. Marshall
3. Georgia Southern

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:

Not particularly impressive for a school known — fairly or unfairly — for special teams, but hey, the field goal-kicking unit isn't bad.

When the Buckeyes kick:

I guess special teams aren't all that important when your offense scores plenty of touchdowns on everyone.

Who To Watch Out For

You may have heard that Ohio State won the National Championship and has three two Heisman-caliber quarterbacks on the team. Well the good news is that one of those now plays WR. Listing only three players here is short-changing some very talented Buckeyes but here goes:

1. The quarterback — whether J.T. Barrett or Cardale Jones starts, the Hokies will be dealing with one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
2. RB Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1,878 yards last year at 6.88 yards per carry; lest you think this was against inferior competition, his three highest rushing totals and two of his three highest yards-per-carry totals were the B1G Championship game and the playoffs. While Virginia Tech held him to his lowest total (32 yards) there's no disputing the improvement in the offensive line and his rushing performances as the season progressed. It is highly unlikely he will be held to such a low number on Labor Day.
3. Braxton Miller, the QB turned WR, who will need to adjust to the position quickly. While these position changes rarely result in an immediately-elite player at the new position, Miller is fast and athletic and will get a featured role given suspensions to other wide receivers. He is a proven weapon with the ball in his hands and Ohio State may try to get him the ball on screens and quick slants where he can use his athleticism to gain yardage after the catch.

Statistical Key to the Game

The tried-and-true underdog formula goes something like: minimize possessions, don't turn the ball over, and avoid costly mistakes like penalties that keep drives alive. Make no mistake that despite optimism Virginia Tech is a clear underdog here and before you think that the rest of the country is short-changing the Hokies' chances, this game is the least the Buckeyes are favored at this point against any opponent this season. This is a 7-6 team facing a defending national champion as only an 11-point underdog. The formula applies here.

My statistical key to the game will be plays-per-drive for Virginia Tech. The offense will not be explosive but if they can maintain possession and methodically move the ball up the field while letting the defense rest and keeping Ohio State's weapons off the field, then they will be in striking range of the upset.

Statistical Prediction

This season I'll be using a statistical model on team ranks to predict yardage totals, but as usual the final score prediction is a healthy mix of statistical expectations, Las Vegas odds, and unabashed homer Kool Aid.

Virginia Tech finishes with 210 yards passing and 40 yards rushing
Ohio State finishes with 294 yards passing and 204 yards rushing

Virginia Tech 27, Ohio State 24. Start jumping.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.