What can be said about Virginia Tech's upcoming Big Ten matchup at Purdue based on only two games of statistical data? There's not enough information available about the personalities of each team to put meaningful numbers behind them. Also, it's anyone's guess how many snaps each Hokie quarterback will receive, and how they'll be utilized. What we do seem to know is that Purdue is likely improved from last year, and we can't tell whether the offense sans Michael Brewer can be effective against an FBS opponent.
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 1-1. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
There is no question that statistically Virginia Tech is the better team, and while computers may not be taking into account an injured quarterback, they are also consistent with the betting spread of 6. The odds of a 6-point favorite winning are 67.3%. There is not a large margin of error in this game.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
It is a testament to the strength of Ohio State's offense that Tech's defensive rating remains among the best in the country (S&P+ does not consider FCS games). Saturday's game will begin to provide a better idea of (a) just how elite the defense is and (b) whether the offense can have any effectiveness at all without Brewer. Purdue has a slightly above-average offense that needs to be held to poor yardage totals to confirm what we think of our defense; given their below-average defense, there is no excuse for poor numbers on offense. If the offense can't put up at least an average output, sound the alarm on our odds until Brewer returns.
Who To Watch Out For
Purdue isn't exactly loaded with talent, but even perceived doormats like Virginia and Purdue have a few playmakers on their team:
- Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley leads Purdue in tackles, and has 2.5 tackles for loss
- Special teams — thus far Purdue has struggled to kickoff, punt, return kicks, return punts, and kick field goals effectively. Can the Hokies capitalize?
Statistical Key to the Game
Let's not overthink this one. Tech's defense should be fine. There's nothing fancy needed from the offense — just be effective enough to come away with more points than the Boilermakers. So yards per play on offense is a critical measurement of that effectiveness, and anything above 5.5 will be a sign that our offense has a pulse.
Statistical Prediction
Based on real time reactions against Furman from Hokie Nation, I seem to be way more pessimistic about Tech's offense — especially whether Scot Loeffler calls plays that work to Motley's (and Lawson's) strengths. But Purdue has a tendency to give up big plays, and I think that Tech will struggle to consistently move the ball, but be saved by a couple of big plays that seal the game. Virginia Tech wins and we all breathe a sigh of relief.
Virginia Tech 20, Purdue 13
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Thanks Joel, nice review.
I don't know on this one. If McMillian can get going good it should be a decent day, minus passing ruined by QB indecision/poor technique. If we see the motely of the 2d half of last week and a good running game we should be fine. I can see this either being a 6-10 pt win or 21+ pt win. Hopefully it's the latter and the offense surprises us with its ability to consistently move the ball.
But, Coach Foster already told us Purdue's personality: they're somewhere between Ohio State and Furman.
I respectfully disagree. They need to be effective enough to beat the spread so I can make back the money I bet on the OSU game.
The percentage of a win versus Purdue dropped from 98% to 87% since the first article. Is that just due to the loss to tOSU or losing Brewer?
Curious and thanks.
A few things...one, I wasn't buying 98% as particularly accurate in the first place. Purdue is no powerhouse but that's giving them roughly the same odds as Furman. Computers have since had one or two games to start improving their ratings and it fell about where I would have expected it had Brewer not been hurt (I'm too lazy to look it up but I think I predicted high 80's in the comments).
Realistically even the 87% is likely too high given Brewer's injury...using the spread instead of computers (almost certainly more accurate at this point), we have a 67% chance of winning.
They can't kick, punt, or return... so they go for it every 4th down, go for 2 after every TD, and lobby the official for the XFL "scramble" in place of the kickoff at the start of every half?
EDIT: just remembered the scramble took the place of the coin toss. Man, the XFL was bad.
In theory it was an interesting idea.... until someone got hurt the very first time they did it.
I think a 40 yard dash between the fastest players on each team would be interesting way to handle the coin toss.
I think short-yardage defense would be a better measure of whether going for 2 every time would make sense, but I can buy in to going for it on 4th almost every time.
This beat writer predicts a VT win with a final score of 25-16. I did a double-take, how the heck does one score 25 points in a football game? My head hurts...
Two TDs, with the PAT missed on one, and four FGs.
Ah. Right. Saturday mornings......
With the new PAT rules in the NFL, I expect to see a lot of these wonky scores.
Very carefully. Easiest would probably be 3 TDs and 2 safeties, with the opposing team scoring 2 TDs and, since Joel pointed out they can't kick, going for 2 and making it both times.
Of course, the guy could've just moved each prediction a point and said 24-17, and made life a whole lot easier.
Just for the sake of a baseline, for those wondering:
Total Offense: 451.5 ypg
Scoring Offense: 33 ppg
Yards/Play: 6.4
Since I'd say Purdue is a pretty good median between Ohio State and Furman, I'd say those numbers probably reflect what we should reasonably expect to put up vs the Broilermakers.
I'm thinking Purdue is closer to Furman than OSU. That's not a slight to Purdue as much as I think that highly of OSU. That being said, I wouldn't expect a 400 yard day today but I'm certainly hopeful. I think the defense and special teams each get a score. So I think the offense will get 2 TDs and a fg