I stumbled across this chart Sunday morning. Its author, Sharon Katz, is an analytics writer for ESPN Stats and Information. The chart is based on ESPN's FPI.
Not quite what we expected in the ACC Coastal, right @aadelsonESPN and @DavidHaleESPN #TobaccoRoad pic.twitter.com/vYNUjo282A— Sharon Katz (@skatz23) October 4, 2015
Preseason favorites Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have just a combined 7% chance to win the Coastal Division. As of right now, a Clemson-UNC matchup in Charlotte is most likely.
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This is a great visualization. But... she's sayin' there's a chance....
At least we're not "< 0.01%" I guess?
Good lord. I knew GT was losing more than most people reckoned, but the fact that we have more than twice the chance they do of winning the division is incredible.
Also allow me to be the first to say, loluva.
That is way too optimistic with how shitty this team is currently playing and being coached!
Why would unc have the greatest chance?
Duke looks decent this year. Their only loss was a close one to a good NW.
*cries*
My guess would be this takes into account scoring, margin of victory, all sorts of factors.
It's only been one game though, these percentages will swing a lot over the next few weeks.
hey at least we're ahead of UVA for now!
May it ever be so.
Glad to see my gut intuition was reasonable. I asked this question among some friends last night, and all said UNC or Duke, but Duke's offense isn't good enough to win enough games. UNC's defense looks to be turning around and their offense seems to be as productive as usual. So we all gave UNC the edge from what we've seen.
That's the way it looks, but Duke has played better Ds as well as having Cutcliffe. Whichever of them beats Pitt is the winner IMO...
This confirms my overall suspicion. In the ACC, the coaching is getting better. The teams are getting better. Our program "better" do something to compete with this trend.
ESPN's FPI is a complete joke.
At the end of the season, "Wait a minute, what was all that one in a million stuff?!"
and we're still more than 5 times as likely to get to Charlotte as LOLUVA
Trying to predict the Coastal after week five?
I'm not sure how you assign percentages to something that isn't measurable. This early in the season, the splits should be much more even.
I'm sure Joel could shed some light on this, but I'm guessing it has to do with computer simulations among the various teams and win probabilities based on their bodies of work thus far.
It's saying take UNC over the field. No Damn way.
I think you might be underestimating the potential impact of a good DC hire for UNC. Gene Chizzik might wind up being a Brent Venables caliber hire for the Tarheels. All they were missing was a defense.
Yeah, I'm fittin'a take that with a fat grain of salt bubba
Got me a 55 gallon drum of salt.
Do you people not even watch ACC football? Coastal is going to get flipped, smacked, and turned inside out before December. UNC has 3 losses before it's over. Guaranteed.
Agreed, right now everybody has approximately the same chance besides UVA (because LOLUVA) and Georgia Tech (because of 2 losses plus upcoming games against Clemson and FSU).
2015 is no different, the Coastal is the same mess it's been since 2012. UNC may be above average but they still need to do more to prove it.
It's the ACC. We don't need odds, we have the Wheel of Destiny.
Until late October, every team in the conference has a 50/50 chance of playing in the conference title game. Either they do, or they don't.
I would prefer the wheel of fish myself...
A Red snapper, very tasty!