Hokies Must Better Focus Distribution of Rushing Attempts

By: Joe Lanza @thekeyplay

PUBLISHER

on October 9, 2015, 7:13 AM | 210 comments

[Mark Umansky]

There's been plenty of angst, unhappiness and despair with how Virginia Tech has divided up its touches on the ground in 2015. And that's for good reason too. Advanced rating system S&P+ ranks the Hokies No. 86 nationally in rushing. By a more traditional metric, Tech falls T-76th nationally in yards per game with 166.40 yards. Those rankings are not indicative of an offense that hangs its hat on running the football—a goal of Beamer Co.

Hokie Nation has bemoaned Tech's running back rotation more and more each season since 2011; the last year All-American tailback David Wilson suited up in maroon and orange. Wilson was fed the rock 49.15% of the time in 2011 (290 of 590 team attempts) for 1,709 yards. The rest of Tech's backs were malnourished; Josh Oglesby had the next most touches (97, 16.44%).

A healthy tailback on this year's roster has yes to distinguish himself like the rabbit-chasing, backflipping, Chick-fil-A on Sundays eating Wilson. Whether that's because of lack of talent, or opportunity is another issue.

Although, running backs coach Shane Beamer recently touted his group of tailbacks.

"We've got a highly competitive room," Beamer said in September. "We talk about our defensive line on this team and that's a good group, but I really like the group that we have in our room from a depth standpoint and the amount of talent that we have in that room. It's a really, really good group."

In 2011 Wilson averaged 5.72 yards per carry when his long gain of 57 yards is removed from the equation. This season redshirt freshman Travon McMillian is averaging 5.16 yards an attempt when his season high rush of 63 isn't considered. Yet, he is just third-most in tailback attempts (32) behind J.C. Coleman (37 ATT, 3.2 YPC) and Trey Edmunds (36 ATT, 4.1 YPC).

Furthermore, McMillian is averaging 7.1 highlight yards per opportunity*. Edmunds and Coleman are averaging 6.0 and 1.4, respectively. McMillian also boasts a 50% opportunity rate*, the highest among Tech's tailbacks. Edmunds' opportunity rate is 27.8%, and Coleman's is 32.4%.

"I think we want to keep it balanced," Shane Beamer said during Tech's press conference on 9/8/15. "It's a long year. It's a physical position. Those guys take a pounding."

Through 5 games, Beamer's hit his goal and almost evenly distributed the load among his top three tailbacks. However, it's fair to question the strategy of giving the most productive tailback third most carries.

"You can't play four, you can't play six regularly and be any good," Shane said prior to the 2014 season.

When fullback Sam Rogers' attempts (10) and quarterback Brenden Motley's carries (62) are considered along with Coleman, Edmunds and McMillian's involvement in the run game, five players are sharing one ball.

From a running backs' perspective, that's not an optimal way to get into a flow.

"He (the running back) has to be in there to really feel it, feel what the defense is bringing at him, feel the different pressures, the different zone blitzes and things like that," Trey Edmunds said during Tech's press conference on 9/8/15. "It's just a matter of how you're feeling in the game like I said. Once you get a feel for what the defense is throwing at you, I feel, as a running back, you're able to see things better, see things differently. That's when those big runs occur and when the big things start to become the little things and a lot of success happens."

J.C. Coleman echoed a similar, more succinct sentiment in October 2014.

"Being a running back is all about rhythm," Coleman said.

In order to better visualize the rhythm, or lack thereof, I logged every Virginia Tech rush play this season and charted it below. The play-by-play information is via ESPN.com**. The y-axis is yards gained or lost on a play. The x-axis is the carry number for each game and which Hokie ran the ball (color coded). The quarterbacks are included because they are eating a slice of the pie too (pizza, not dessert). Sacks and touchdowns are noted in the table.

Carry No.	Situation	Player Name	Rush Yards	Sack
1	2nd and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	3
2	3rd and 7 at VT 28	Michael Brewer	-4	Yes
3	1st and 10 at VT 18	J.C. Coleman	5
4	2nd and 5 at VT 23	J.C. Coleman	4
5	3rd and 1 at VT 27	J.C. Coleman	3
6	1st and 10 at VT 30	Michael Brewer	-5	Yes
7	2nd and 15 at VT 25	Michael Brewer	6
8	1st and 10 at VT 48	Sam Rogers	16
9	1st and 10 at OSU 36	Sam Rogers	3
10	1st and 10 at VT 26	Trey Edmunds	7
11	2nd and 3 at VT 33	Trey Edmunds	-4
12	1st and 20 at VT 27	Brenden Motley	7
13	2nd and 13 at VT 34	Travon McMillian	15
14	1st and 10 at VT 44	Brenden Motley	0
15	2nd and 10 at VT 44	Greg Stroman	-4
16	1st and 10 at OSU 35	J.C. Coleman	1
17	2nd and 9 at OSU 34	J.C. Coleman	2
18	1st and 10 at VT 12	J.C. Coleman	9
19	2nd and 1 at VT 21	J.C. Coleman	0
20	3rd and 1 at VT 21	Michael Brewer	3
21	1st and 10 at VT 24	Sam Rogers	4
22	1st and 0 at OSU 2	Trey Edmunds	1
23	2nd and 0 at OSU 1	Trey Edmunds	0
24	2nd and 1 at VT 34	Trey Edmunds	3
25	2nd and 2 at VT 45	Trey Edmunds	6
26	1st and 10 at OSU 49	Trey Edmunds	7
27	2nd and 3 at OSU 42	Trey Edmunds	-1
28	2nd and 10 at OSU 41	J.C. Coleman	6
29	3rd and 4 at OSU 35	Brenden Motley	-7	Yes
30	2nd and 6 at VT 29	J.C. Coleman	5
31	3rd and 1 at VT 34	J.C. Coleman	3
32	1st and 10 at OSU 48	J.C. Coleman	2
33	1st and 10 at VT 16	Trey Edmunds	4
34	2nd and 6 at VT 20	Trey Edmunds	3
35	3rd and 3 at VT 23	Brenden Motley	7
36	1st and 10 at VT 30	Travon McMillian	-1
37	2nd and 7 at VT 29	Brenden Motley	2
38	1st and 10 at VT 17	Brenden Motley	14
39	2nd and 10 at VT 31	Trey Edmunds	-3
40	3rd and 13 at VT 28	Brenden Motley	-6	Yes
41	1st and 10 at OSU 29	Travon McMillian	3
42	2nd and 7 at OSU 26	Travon McMillian	2
43	3rd and 5 at OSU 24	Travon McMillian	6
44	1st and 10 at OSU 18	Travon McMillian	1

Carry No.	Situation	Player Name	Rush Yards	Touchdown
1	2nd and 10 at VT 27	Brenden Motley	17
2	1st and 10 at VT 44	J.C. Coleman	5
3	2nd and 5 at VT 49	J.C. Coleman	2
4	1st and 10 at VT 37	Trey Edmunds	7
5	2nd and 3 at VT 44	Trey Edmunds	2
6	3rd and 1 at VT 46	Trey Edmunds	0
7	1st and 10 at FUR 46	J.C. Coleman	8
8	1st and 10 at VT 12	Trey Edmunds	7
9	2nd and 3 at VT 19	Trey Edmunds	4
10	1st and 10 at FUR 31	Travon McMillian	1
11	3rd and 9 at FUR 30	Brenden Motley	7
12	4th and 2 at FUR 23	Trey Edmunds	19
13	1st and 0 at FUR 4	Brenden Motley	4	Yes
14	2nd and 10 at VT 40	Dwayne Lawson	5
15	1st and 10 at FUR 45	Travon McMillian	10
16	1st and 15 at FUR 40	Dwayne Lawson	0
17	3rd and 4 at FUR 29	Trey Edmunds	1
18	1st and 10 at VT 24	Travon McMillian	63
19	2nd and 8 at FUR 11	Brenden Motley	10
20	1st and Goal at FUR 1	Trey Edmunds	0
21	2nd and 1 at VT 33	Travon McMillian	6
22	1st and 10 at FUR 47	Isaiah Ford	7
23	1st and 0 at FUR 1	Trey Edmunds	1	Yes
24	1st and 10 at VT 33	Travon McMillian	9
25	2nd and 1 at VT 42	Dwayne Lawson	10
26	1st and 10 at FUR 17	Dwayne Lawson	10
27	1st and 10 at VT 19	Dwayne Lawson	6
28	2nd and 4 at VT 25	Chris Durkin	3
29	3rd and 1 at VT 28	Chris Durkin	6
30	2nd and 3 at FUR 46	Dwayne Lawson	4
31	1st and 10 at FUR 42	Shai McKenzie	11
32	1st and 9 at FUR 41	Dwayne Lawson	6
33	2nd and 3 at FUR 35	Travon McMillian	9
34	1st and 10 at FUR 26	Chris Durkin	7
35	2nd and 3 at FUR 19	Chris Durkin	9
36	2nd and Goal at FUR 10	Dwayne Lawson	6
37	3rd and 3 at FUR 4	Dwayne Lawson	4	Yes
38	1st and 10 at VT 49	Shai McKenzie	6
39	2nd and 4 at FUR 45	Shai McKenzie	2
40	3rd and 2 at FUR 43	Shai McKenzie	0
41	4th and 2 at FUR 43	Shai McKenzie	5

Carry No.	Situation	Player Name	Rush Yards	Touchdown	Sack
1	1st and 10 at VT 34	Travon McMillian	6
2	1st and 10 at PUR 20	J.C. Coleman	3
3	2nd and 7 at PUR 17	Brenden Motley	0
4	1st and 10 at PUR 46	Travon McMillian	-4
5	2nd and 14 at 50	Brenden Motley	3
6	3rd and 11 at PUR 47	Brenden Motley	-4
7	1st and 10 at VT 2	Trey Edmunds	-1
8	1st and 10 at VT 16	Brenden Motley	20
9	1st and Goal at PUR 3	Trey Edmunds	1
10	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	9
11	2nd and 1 at VT 34	J.C. Coleman	10
12	1st and 25 at VT 29	Brenden Motley	9
13	2nd and 16 at VT 38	Travon McMillian	10
14	1st and 10 at PUR 39	Travon McMillian	7
15	2nd and 3 at PUR 32	J.C. Coleman	6
16	2nd and 10 at PUR 26	Brenden Motley	6
17	1st and 10 at VT 25	Brenden Motley	-1
18	3rd and 11 at VT 24	Trey Edmunds	16
19	1st and 10 at VT 40	Trey Edmunds	35
20	1st and 10 at PUR 25	J.C. Coleman	2
21	1st and 0 at PUR 5	Brenden Motley	5	Yes
22	1st and 15 at PUR 23	J.C. Coleman	3
23	3rd and 12 at PUR 20	Brenden Motley	-5		Yes
24	1st and 10 at VT 35	Brenden Motley	1
25	2nd and 9 at VT 36	Sam Rogers	10
26	1st and 10 at VT 46	Brenden Motley	5
27	2nd and 5 at PUR 49	Brenden Motley	-2
28	1st and 10 at PUR 42	Trey Edmunds	3
29	2nd and 7 at PUR 39	Trey Edmunds	2
30	1st and 10 at PUR 25	Trey Edmunds	9
31	2nd and 1 at PUR 16	Trey Edmunds	4
32	1st and 10 at PUR 12	Brenden Motley	-2
33	1st and 0 at PUR 1	J.C. Coleman	1	Yes
34	1st and 15 at VT 6	J.C. Coleman	1
35	2nd and 14 at VT 7	J.C. Coleman	5
36	3rd and 9 at VT 12	J.C. Coleman	6
37	1st and 10 at PUR 32	Trey Edmunds	3
38	2nd and 7 at PUR 29	Travon McMillian	0
39	1st and 10 at PUR 38	Dwayne Lawson	5
40	2nd and 10 at PUR 38	Dwayne Lawson	0
41	3rd and 10 at PUR 38	Dwayne Lawson	-2
42	1st and 10 at PUR 35	Shai McKenzie	3
43	2nd and 7 at PUR 32	Shai McKenzie	3
44	3rd and 4 at PUR 29	Dwayne Lawson	-3
45	1st and 10 at PUR 47	Travon McMillian	14
46	1st and 10 at PUR 33	Travon McMillian	17
47	1st and 10 at PUR 16	Travon McMillian	3
48	2nd and 7 at PUR 13	Travon McMillian	2
49	3rd and 1 at PUR 7	Brenden Motley	2
50	1st and Goal at PUR 5	Shai McKenzie	-1
51	2nd and Goal at PUR 6	Shai McKenzie	3
52	1st and 10 at PUR 30	Shai McKenzie	5
53	2nd and 5 at PUR 25	Shai McKenzie	4
54	3rd and 1 at PUR 21	Shai McKenzie	7
55	1st and 10 at PUR 14	Shai McKenzie	2

Carry No.	Situation	Player Name	Rush Yards	Touchdown	Sack
1	1st and 10 at ECU 31	J.C. Coleman	2
2	1st and 10 at ECU 16	J.C. Coleman	1
3	2nd and 9 at ECU 15	Brenden Motley	6
4	1st and 0 at ECU 1	Trey Edmunds	1	Yes
5	1st and 10 at ECU 19	Brenden Motley	9
6	3rd and 4 at ECU 13	Brenden Motley	3
7	4th and 1 at ECU 10	Brenden Motley	2
8	1st and Goal at ECU 8	J.C. Coleman	1
9	2nd and 10 at VT 18	Trey Edmunds	3
10	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	2
11	2nd and 8 at VT 27	J.C. Coleman	3
12	3rd and 5 at VT 30	Brenden Motley	11
13	1st and 10 at VT 41	Trey Edmunds	-1
14	1st and 10 at VT 35	Brenden Motley	7
15	2nd and 3 at VT 42	Brenden Motley	5
16	1st and 10 at VT 47	Travon McMillian	7
17	2nd and 3 at ECU 46	Brenden Motley	6
18	1st and 10 at ECU 40	Brenden Motley	2
19	1st and 10 at ECU 24	J.C. Coleman	2
20	1st and 10 at VT 26	Brenden Motley	-1
21	2nd and 11 at VT 25	Brenden Motley	8
22	3rd and 3 at VT 33	Dwayne Lawson	4
23	1st and 20 at VT 27	Brenden Motley	3
24	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	2
25	1st and 10 at VT 25	Travon McMillian	7
26	2nd and 3 at VT 32	Travon McMillian	1
27	3rd and 2 at VT 33	Trey Edmunds	5
28	1st and 10 at ECU 30	Isaiah Ford	10
29	1st and 10 at ECU 20	Sam Rogers	4
30	2nd and 6 at ECU 16	Sam Rogers	1
31	1st and 0 at ECU 2	Sam Rogers	2	Yes
32	1st and 10 at VT 40	Brenden Motley	8
33	2nd and 2 at VT 48	Sam Rogers	1
34	3rd and 1 at VT 49	Trey Edmunds	0
35	2nd and 10 at ECU 25	Brenden Motley	4
36	1st and 10 at VT 5	Brenden Motley	8
37	2nd and 10 at VT 19	Travon McMillian	14
38	2nd and 10 at VT 33	Brenden Motley	2
39	1st and 0 at ECU 5	Brenden Motley	5	Yes
40	1st and 10 at VT 21	Travon McMillian	1
41	1st and 10 at VT 32	Brenden Motley	3
42	2nd and 7 at VT 35	Brenden Motley	-6		Yes

Carry No.	Situation	Player Name	Rush Yards	Sack
1	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	0
2	2nd and 10 at VT 25	Travon McMillian	3
3	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	5
4	1st and 10 at VT 36	J.C. Coleman	-2
5	2nd and 7 at VT 39	Brenden Motley	3
6	3rd and 4 at VT 42	Brenden Motley	0
7	1st and 10 at VT 17	Trey Edmunds	3
8	2nd and 2 at VT 25	Brenden Motley	3
9	3rd and 2 at VT 36	Brenden Motley	3
10	1st and 10 at PITT 46	Brenden Motley	-9	Yes
11	2nd and 19 at VT 45	Brenden Motley	22
12	1st and 10 at PITT 33	Brenden Motley	-7	Yes
13	1st and 10 at PITT 12	Sam Rogers	1
14	1st and 10 at VT 28	J.C. Coleman	-2
15	3rd and 9 at VT 29	Brenden Motley	-9	Yes
16	1st and 10 at VT 23	Travon McMillian	4
17	1st and 10 at VT 20	TEAM	-1
18	1st and 10 at VT 25	J.C. Coleman	2
19	2nd and 8 at VT 27	Travon McMillian	15
20	2nd and 10 at VT 42	Travon McMillian	1
21	3rd and 9 at VT 43	Brenden Motley	6
22	1st and 10 at PITT 23	Brenden Motley	-7	Yes
23	3rd and 17 at PITT 30	Brenden Motley	4
24	1st and 10 at VT 20	Trey Edmunds	2
25	2nd and 8 at VT 22	Brenden Motley	1
26	1st and 10 at VT 46	Travon McMillian	-3
27	2nd and 13 at VT 43	Brenden Motley	1
28	1st and 10 at PITT 29	Travon McMillian	-6
29	2nd and 16 at PITT 35	Brenden Motley	0
30	2nd and 10 at VT 25	Sam Rogers	1
31	3rd and 9 at VT 26	Brenden Motley	-10	Yes
32	1st and 10 at VT 38	Brenden Motley	-8	Yes
33	2nd and 18 at VT 30	Brenden Motley	-7	Yes

There are only a handful of times in non-garbage time situations when a single running back saw a significant stretch of carries. That yields the total distribution through the first five games of 2015 below.

North Carolina State's defense has allowed just 80.2 yards per game on the ground this season. That ranks No. 6 overall nationally. S&P+ agrees the Wolfpack has played terrific run defense thus far in 2015, and it ranks N.C. State No. 11 in the country.

Friday night would be the right time for Tech to cut its running back rotation down, and excel moving the ball on the ground.

"I think we've sat down and talked about who we need touching the ball," Frank Beamer said during Monday's press conference. "I'm not gonna get into that, but there's always so many touches in a game and percentage-wise you better have the right people touching the ball."

Although, this is a familiar tune, sung by Beamer as recently as preseason camp.

"I think we've got to limit ourselves," Beamer said this past August. "Shane (Beamer) learned from that, I certainly learned from that. Just trying to play too many and you've got to get in there and get settled and get into a rhythm and we never allowed that to happen, so we're aware of what needs to take place."

Statistically, McMillian is Tech's most productive option. He passes the eye test and Frank Beamer has gushed over him since his first camp.

"The guy's got speed, real speed," Beamer said in August 2014. "You noticed him. He's going to come along. He's going to be a real speed guy in our backfield."

McMillian or otherwise, both coaches and players are in agreement that Tech's rushing attack needs to distribute the majority of touches to fewer players.

*These terms are defined on Football Study Hall's advanced statistics glossary.

**ESPN's dataset was the easiest to programmatically obtain. Please note, there were a couple of minor inconsistencies in the Virginia Tech–Purdue game. The obvious one is ESPN did not count Purdue's strip-sack-score touchdown as a sack against Motley.

Tags:

2015 Football Season

North Carolina State

Statistics

Section:

Virginia Tech Football