Halfwits and Wagers: North Carolina State

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Pierson and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Virginia Tech tries to turn things around under the lights tonight against N.C. State. Pierson and I, likewise, try to turn our bets around after a few rough weeks. Want to know the sign of a bad gambler? How about when you fail to hit half of the lines that you created yourself.

Without getting too depressed about either the Hokies' performance or our ineptitude at providing solid fake gambling advice, let's just get to this week's wagers.

Over/Under 99.5 yards rushing for Jacoby Brissett.

Brian: Over. So Brissett has only rushed for over 100 yards once in his entire career, and he's only gone over 50 one other time? Sign. Me. Up. You might as well pay me my money right now, this dude's going to gallop all over the place because it just doesn't have to make sense anymore. Chad Voytik's one job (literally) last weekend was to run, and he still averaged almost eight yards a carry. I'll go so far as to say that if Brissett doesn't have a good day on the ground, someone on that Wolfpack staff needs to be fired, because they obviously aren't good at the whole "game planning" thing.

Pierson: Under. Way under. Brissett can run and I anticipate a ton of zone read, given the talent and depth at N.C. State's skill positions. But I also expect the Hokies to pick up some sacks and drop Brissett in the backfield as he looks to move the pocket. The Hokies will be working hard to keep the run game in check, so what really makes me nervous are intermediate and deep routes to counter any extra men in the box. Brissett runs a little, but throws more.

Over/Under 250 total yards for the Wolfpack.

Brian: While it felt like the defense is coming off a poor day, they still held the Panthers to 17 points and 276 yards of offense. State managed to gain a whopping 228 yards against Louisville, their first game against anything close to a major bowl team (and considering that came against the then 1-3 Cardinals, that's saying something). I'll go over, but barely, just because Brissett will find some success on the ground and in the air. Remember, while Brandon Facyson's stats have been pretty incredible, Terrell Edmunds and Mook Reynolds are still inexperienced and will inevitably be exploited.

Pierson: Louisville held N.C. State to their lowest total offense numbers of the season, but they were also the first Power 5 team the Pack had faced. The Hokies have a much more talented defense than the Cards, and I was really impressed by the D's performance down the stretch against Pitt. What is it that we discuss about Bud's system, ad nauseum? Chunk yardage happens. When you consider how explosive NC State's offense is, I'm taking the over.

Over/Under: 2.5 catches for Greg Stroman

Brian: "GREG STROMAN IS GOING TO SAVE THIS OFFENSE." &mash; One person, probably from the Northern Virginia area.

This is an emergency move that borders on desperation, but that doesn't mean it's not exciting. Is it concerning that Tech seemed to only have two usable receivers before this moment? Yes. But is it nice to finally have a third person on that side of the ball (after Isaiah Ford and Travon McMillian) who can be electric with his hands on the football? Absolutely.

I don't think we'll see Stroman a ton on Friday night, if only because he made the move less than a week prior, but he'll definitely have a role. If this was over/under 2.5 touches I'd definitely take the former (Greg, say hello to the Loeffler sweep!), but since it's specifically catches I'm guessing probably not.

Pierson: I'm really looking forward to seeing Stroman line up in the slot alongside someone like Bucky Hodges, just to short circuit the opposing linebacker forced to choose between the big freak and the speedster. I believe Stroman has the makeup to be a solid wide receiver, and both he and the offense will benefit from increased snaps on the offensive side of the ball. It will give Lefty opportunities to use his skillset in a variety of ways without telegraphing the gimmick plays. I just hope this doesn't turn into another Joel Caleb situation. I have no idea how Stroman has looked in practice, but I would imagine the package they use Friday will be a series of jet sweeps and bubble screens #BecauseLefty. I'll pick the under and laugh when Stroman finishes with 6 catches for 48 yards, all on screens.

Rank 'Em: Most-to-least snaps at quarterback: Brenden Motley, Michael Brewer, Dwayne Lawson (and Chris Durkin I guess?)

Brian: I don't think Brewer should play, at all. The combination of someone coming back quickly from a broken bone, and being thrown behind an offensive line that's MORE dysfunctional in pass protection than when Ohio State suplexed him into the ground? Try to tell me that's not a disaster waiting to happen.

I'm also wondering if Motley is two more bad hits from wilting. It's not fair to say he looked broken after Pittsburgh (well, other than the mystery shoulder problem that I'm SURE didn't deserve to be on the injury report...), but he was beat up physically and mentally. If he's still obviously shaken against the Wolfpack, do you consider plopping Lawson in for his first extended appearance? You've already burned the redshirt, why not use him if the necessity arises?

Motley and Lawson both get some run, Brewer and Durkin will not.

Pierson: I'm no doctor, but three collarbone fractures repaired using six screws and a metal plate seems like an awful lot to fully heal in just 5 weeks. And it's not like the Virginia Tech medical staff is performing miracles of late with some of Bud Kilmer's Secret Sauce. I want Brewer to succeed and I certainly don't want to see him do further damage to his shoulder. Coming off of last week's game, I'm sure the staff wanted to (a) see what Brewer could and couldn't do, and (b) force NC State to prepare for two quarterbacks. We could see Brewer in spurts, but I would be stunned if he stood in the pocket for more than 3 seconds and wasn't handing the ball off 80-percent of the time. Pencil me in with Motley, Brewer, Lawson and Durkin.

Over/Under 159 yards total rushing by the Hokies.

Brian: Well, I don't think Brewer plays which means that Tech is going to have to try to establish themselves on the ground. State struggled with a mobile quarterback last week, making me think that Motley could find some success in that area. On top of that, I think that this is the week that a single back gets the majority of the carries. I think that back will be Travon McMillian, and I think he'll break 100 yards for the first time in his young career. So give me the over.

Pierson: Over. Frank Beamer wants a running team gosh dangit, and after last week's piss poor performance on the ground he's going to want to re-establish that trait. I'm expecting a run-first offense that wants to use their success on the ground to take shots downfield. N.C. State's front seven is nothing to sneeze at, though, so it will take a big performance from the hogmollies up front to get some push. Oh, and I fully expect Shane to trot out every back on the roster once again, if only just to troll us.

Over/Under 7.5 penalties for the Hokies.

Brian: The Hokies average 8.6 a game, but were only flagged five times for 50 yards last week. With their collective backs up against a wall, I wouldn't be shocked to see and aggressive team that gets back to keeping the officials busy this week. Give me the over, and let me double down with a weak personal foul call on Wyatt Teller.

Pierson: Night game on national television. Coming off of two embarrassing losses to teams you were supposed to beat on paper. Season potentially on the brink and a little extra adrenaline in the tank. I'm taking the over.

Over/Under: 75% of the seats in Lane Stadium filled.

Brian: This is one that I have no handle on. Tech says that they have a limited number of tickets available that were unsold from the Wolfpack's allotment. So starting with those, assuming most of them go unsold, how empty will this thing be? Over the last few years the losing hasn't stopped people from coming out to a night game. 2012 Florida State, 2014 Miami, and 2014 Virginia were all pretty full (and pretty rowdy, at least at the beginning). Do people talk themselves into the Hokies again this week? My guess is no, and that the stands will look pretty pathetic come Enter Sandman on Friday night.

Pierson: I'm going to take the over because it is a night game in Lane against a decent team that's only 3.5 hours down the highway. The big questions will be how many potential fans pass on the Hokies for their local high school football game, and how many would rather watch the game on TV instead of taking time off of work and driving to Blacksburg? If the stands are less than 75-percent full for this game, it will serve as a strong indictment on the sentiment of the fan base.

Matchup Over/Under: 52 Points

Brian: Over. The State offense is too good for Bud Foster to completely stop, and the State defense isn't good enough to totally stifle the Hokies. It's not like this will provide an onslaught of scoring, but I'm expecting both teams to hit the mid-to-upper twenties.

Pierson: Under. I think both teams put up some points and it becomes a pretty exciting affair. NC State's offense is so explosive, and former Hokies recruit Nyheim Hines is quickly proving to be a dangerous return man. The Hokies offense will be looking to right the ship after last week's debacle, playing like they have something to prove. At the same time, I'm having trouble buying what both teams are selling, considering who they've succeeded and struggled against. I think they flirt with this line, but ultimately I'm anticipating a total slightly under 52.

Spread: Pick em

Brian: Aka Vegas telling everyone to stay the hell away from betting on this thing. If these teams are as close as this line implies, I'd usually just pick the home team. But considering that the Hokies in Lane Stadium haven't exactly been the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau as of late, I'll go the other way. State wins, meaning State covers, meaning that I'll be consuming rails of sadness at TOTS after the game.

Pierson: I hate this line for two reasons: One, it forces me to pick a winner, which I feel very uncomfortable doing considering the last few weeks; two, it proves just how much the mystique of a night game in Lane Stadium has faded. I tend to be a bit of a homer, especially when it's published on the interweb. But I need the Hokies to show me something before I can confidently pick them...or I just need to try a reverse jinx. I'll go with State to win and a sad night's sleep for me.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.