So let's just jump right in, shall we?
2014:W&M, OSU, ECU, GT, W. Mich., UNC, Pitt
2015: OSU, Furman, Purdue, ECU, Pitt, NC State, Miami
THE BIG TWO: TOTAL OFFENSE AND SCORING OFFENSE
The 2015 offense continued a gradual downward trend against Miami. It should be noted that this tends to happen beginning midseason across much of college football, as teams get into the heart of the conference schedule. More modest results against better defenses by opponents who see you year after year tempers the effect of games like Purdue and Furman, which were clearly upper outliers. The negative slope of this graph does not bother me too much, especially compared to the slope at which the 2014 offense was dropping. In two weeks, the 2015 offense has seen its average total offense drop 6.6 yards per game. Over the same stretch last season, the 2014 offense saw its average yardage per game decrease by 28.1.
In scoring offense, we are not so fortunate. Scoring offense remains essentially identical last year to this, with the 2015 offense outscoring their 2014 counterparts by 1 point per game. The offense has dipped below 30 points per game for the first time this season. Given that the offense was at one point posting a 9 point per game improvement, seeing scoring offense converge signals a steeper fall from grace for the 2015 offense. We had found success and then ultimately lost it.
THIRD DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGE
The offense had a poor showing against Miami, converting only 3 of 10 third downs. The result is a drop of a full percentage point to 38.5%. This is particularly notable, because for the first time this season, we are averaging a lower third down conversion rate than the 2014 offense finished with. Unless we see improvement in this area, the 2015 offense will see a year-over-year decline in this area, which was already at an unacceptable level last season.
RED ZONE EFFICIENCY
The offense took a hit this week in what has been by far its strongest area so far. The Hokies went 3 for 3 in the red zone, but on two of those three trips inside the 20, the offense was forced to settle for a field goal. That is something that has not happened much thus far, and the result was a delta percentage in RZE of -2.3%. It's still good to see us finishing red zone drives with points, but the offense left points on the field this week. That had not been an issue thus far. Still, the offense is posting substantial improvement over last year in this area.
YARDS PER
Although it might not have felt like it, the offense improved on their yards per play on the year, climbing to 5.5. This was thanks to some big runs by Travon and some explosive passes. Both Bucky and Ford posted receptions of longer than 30 yards against the 'Canes, something I think we can all agree we were dying to witness all of last season. The long ball is a thing again in this season's offense, despite all the offensive miscues in Miami. After converging in week 5, the 2015 offense is now outgaining 2014 by 0.4 yards per play.
After a colossal two week freefall in which YPA plummeted a full yard per attempt, the stat finally stabilizes this week and remains steady at 7.5 YPA. How we actually managed that is a bit of a conversation in itself, though. Motley managed a meager-to-modest 5.9 YPA against Miami, which was an improvement over his outings against Pitt and NC State, but a far cry from the 8.0-9.7 he posted against Furman, Purdue and ECU. The saving grace in this category was Michael Brewer's 16.3 YPA. Yes, that Michael Brewer, who never posted a YPA above 7.6 against FBS competition last season.
The McMillian and Rogers Three and a Half Hours of Power Show has premiered to rave reviews. While the offense remains steady at 5.1 ypc by the backs, as french pointed out in his game review, McMillian was not running through gaping holes as JCC and Trey had been doing while they posted good numbers early in the season against inferior talent. Rather, Travon had the vision to find a crease and the explosiveness to burst through it and into the second level. It was fun to watch. Also of note in the backfield, Trey Edmunds made an appearance in his new role as the short yardage back against Miami and fared well. Trey was responsible for two of the three third downs we converted against Miami. His 4.3 YPC was more than respectable for a short-yardage back, and most importantly, he did not have a run for a loss.
SUMMARY
No one is happy with the offensive performance against Miami, nor should they be. Motley had a terrible game, by far the worst of his career thus far. His wild, improvisational risk-taking was far too reminiscent of Michael Brewer from midseason of last year. However, whereas Brewer rightly felt that the weight of the offense was on his shoulders to carry last season, Motley's frenetic breakdown occurred just as the running game was coming on strong in support. It was the performance of a man who felt he could do everything while remaining blissfully ignorant of his own limitations.
As I have stated a few times here and there over the comments of other threads, one thing that is now very clear about Lefty's scheme is that it heaps an inordinate amount of responsibility upon the quarterback. Against Miami, Motley was not up to the task, and the offense as a whole suffered for it. But as the stats above point out, what felt like an all-around disaster for the offense was in fact a bad outing by the QB. The run game was fine, as were the receivers when being thrown catchable balls. Pass protection had its breakdowns, but by and large, Motley was given time to throw. Had Motley had his A game in south Florida, I firmly believe we would be a game above .500 rather than a game below it.
No excuses. If your scheme and game plan can't adapt to your QB having a bad day, you aren't much of an OC. Lefty refused to ride the run game for all it was worth on a day where Motley clearly wasn't on the money. This was one of the more disappointing showings Scot has had, and worse, it does not seem as though he is learning from his mistakes.
Now we head into the home stretch with our QB1 back. I won't say we've hit the reset button offensively, but if anyone disagrees that the offense looked much crisper and more efficient when Brewer came in, interception aside, I would love to hear your analysis. Hokie Nation is reeling, and at this point 3-9 wouldn't surprise me. But neither would 8-4. That's what we've become in the twilight of the Frank Beamer era: fans of a schizophrenic program. It's like reading a Choose Your Own Adventure straight through. Some parts are exciting, but you can tell the whole time this isn't the way it's supposed to be, and nothing really makes much sense.
Comments
which is why I'm settling on 6-6. I honestly don't see 3 wins left on our schedule but for some reason this team is going to wallop somebody they shouldn't (Duke, probably) and take care of business against BC and UVA. I think this team will find a way to lose to GT and I just don't think our inexperienced secondary will be able to shut down a UNC passing attack which will undoubtedly beat the pass rush.
What hurts the most about what I've just said is that this is my optimistic prediction. That just gives me the sadz
I am holding out for 7-5. I think we beat BC, GT, and UVA with the maybe being grabbing an unexpected game against Duke or UNC. Over the last few years, UNC has imploded down the stretch and shown a keen ability to hand the victory to the other team. (Kind of like Tech).
I see potential wins against Duke, BC, and UVA. BC has less offense than we do but a good defense. Duke's offense is streaky, so it's a toss-up but I like it. UVA is better than expected but I think by that point our guys will be playing with a serious chip on their shoulder. GT is a coin flip. They haven't been playing very well but if our open-field tackling is as inconsistent as it's been, it could be a loss. I see UNC doing to us what Miami did, and if we didn't learn our lesson...uh oh.
I expect substantial secondary support against GT. I think Alexander and Clark will play a big role vs. GT.
Regarding Duke, number one scoring defense and number four total defense. I don't care who you've played, if you're giving up 9.3 points per game after six games, you're doing something right. I expect we will have a difficult time moving the ball against them.
I am expecting a low scoring game that we win on one big play (pass or run).
It's 4 or 5 plays, haven't you heard?!
oof, I wish we did that more often
If we can't beat BC this year than all of the staff should go.
If nothing else, we can expect one good drive from our offense in a game. Even against Pitt, the offense was responsible for some points. BC's offense is just about as good as their defense at preventing scores. Maybe even better. I think any team with a half way competent defense can limit BC to 0-3 points. I like our chances against them for the simple fact that steve addazio hates points...even for his team
Following up on this, the offense has twelve touchdown drives so far that covered 75 yards or more. This is not a bad offense, it's an infuriatingly inconsistent offense.
who would have ever thought those words would be said.
yeah I actually burned my fingers typing that...
Come on, Frank. Everyone knows you're supposed to flip through and find the ending where we're national champions and work your way back from there.
A quick request, would it be possible/easy to do something for turnovers? Like maybe comparing turnovers per play this year compared to last?
Quick, non-graphical answer: through seven games we have 11 turnovers in 2015, compared to 14 through seven games last year. The year over year difference is entirely INTs, 8 this year vs 11 last year.
sobering fact: over 1/3 of our turnovers so far this year occurred last saturday.
Even more sobering: 63.6% of them have come vs Miami and Pitt. Outside of those two performances, we're averaging less than one turnover per game.
So what you're saying is we need to find a way to statistically invalidate 2/3 of our ACC games thus far to make us look competent? Now I know how LOLUVa feels. and it's not good
Not trying to clown you, but I hope you meant "plays per turnover."
Because if we ever ended up recording more than one turnover on a play, that would mean something went terribly, horribly wrong.
Well, to be fair, turnovers per play is a perfectly valid thing. It would just be a decimal.
actually, in the miami game, there was a point at which we were batting 1,000 in that stat...more sadz
EDIT: I remembered incorrectly. Motely fumbled on the SECOND play of the game, not the first. So that stat was only as high as .500
on a more serious note, that would actually be an interesting way of looking at it. Plays per turnover estimates how many plays we can get without turning it over, but turnovers per play would estimate the likelihood of turning it over every time the ball is snapped. Again, looking at Miami, we averaged turning it over every 16 snaps, but every snap, we had a 6.25% chance of turning it over. Dang, that game was just awful...
Mathematically valid, no question. But then the problem becomes explanatory adequacy.
Like, with baseball, one of the more recent stats discussed is AB per HR. HR per AB wouldn't tell us much at all.