By the (Advanced) Numbers: Duke

As Hokie Nation endures the possibility of the bowl streak ending, and the reality of another disappointing season, the team is focused on turning the season around. Last season that seemed to happen against Duke...will it happen again this season?

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 3-4. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

The chance to make a bowl is less than 40%, but far from gone. Perhaps the return of quarterback Michael Brewer will spark a run down the stretch?

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

I have no explanation for why this is so close. Virginia Tech has been mediocre at best, while Duke is the favorite to win the ACC Coastal division at the moment. But numbers are emotionless and this is what they say. The odds of a 2.5-point favorite winning are 57.5%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Duke is a traditional Virginia Tech squad — an elite defense being completely held back by a below average offense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

The Hokies continue to be a better passing team than running, but it's of little comfort against a phenomenal Duke defense. Not only does Duke excel against both pass and run, but they are the No. 1 team in the country on passing downs. This is not a team that Tech wants to find itself in 3rd-and-long against.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Although it may not feel like it at times, the Hokies' offensive line has been average or slightly above average in each metric this season. However, much of Duke's defensive success has come from the defensive line which may not sack the quarterback at any especially high rate, but is a complete run stopper. This is NOT the game to get away from Travon McMillian on the ground.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Blue Devil defense:

If nothing else, the Hokies are balanced across all categories but unfortunately not better than middle-of-the-pack in any one of them. Worse yet, the Blue Devils are also balanced, but well above average.

The No. 81 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Arizona State
2. Massachusetts
3. Akron

The No. 22 Duke defense is closest in personality to:

1. Michigan
2. Temple
3. Boston College

When Duke Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Now that cold water has been splashed on Tech's hopes on offense, there is a ray of sunshine on defense. The Blue Devils aren't very good in any area on offense except passing downs — the strongest area of the Hokies' defense. Will either team reach double digits?

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Duke's offensive line does what they should: the create yards for their running backs, win the push, and keep their quarterback from taking sacks. Dadi may play an excellent game, but his first sack will be tough to come by.

As for personality traits:

Again the already-not-special Blue Devil offense is presented with a tough matchup against the Hokies. The biggest weakness in the Tech defense — explosive drives — is also the biggest weakness of Duke's offense.

The No. 54 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. BYU
2. West Virginia (yuck)
3. Charlotte (?)

The No. 98 Duke offense is closest in personality to:

1. Washington
2. UTSA
3. Wake Forest

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokies' special teams units:

As a whole, this is one of the better units in the country, but individually nothing stands out as exceptional. Additionally, kicking and punting have been below average.

When the Blue Devils kick:

Again the Blue Devils are fitting a traditional Virginia Tech mold of exceptional special teams. In this case, including the top kick returning unit in the country.

Who To Watch Out For

With such a weak offense and an efficient but unaggressive defense, Duke is less a team of stars than it is a well-coached unit that doesn't make mistakes.:

1. The Blue Devils' offensive line. It is remarkable that Duke's offense isn't better given how clean they keep the quarterback, and how much push they can get on opposing defenses.
2. Kick returner DeVon Edwards, averaging an incredible 39.7 yards per return across his 7 returns this far, including two touchdowns.

Statistical Key to the Game

Can the Hokies sustain any sort of offensive drive against such an efficient and effective defense? It's hard to see this game coming down to turnovers like Miami. Rather, it's a question of which team can actually move the ball for more than a few plays at a time and keep their defense fresh. For this one I'm looking at a bread-and-butter stat: yards per play. I think whoever can keep moving the ball will wear out the other defense and take the momentum in the game.

Statistical Prediction

Most of the numbers going into this include a Virginia Tech team with Motley at quarterback. What will the team play like with Brewer back in? It's the biggest question mark of all. Say what you will about Frank Beamer and whether it's time for him to move on, I can't recall any of his teams ever quitting, and I don't think this one is quitting either. The stats predict the Hokies will gain 110 yards passing and 212 rushing, and the Blue Devils will gain 163 yards passing and 211 yards rushing. If the stats are right, there will soon be 0-0 screen grabs of an elated Frank Beamer all over the Internet. Again.

Virginia Tech 20, Duke 17

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.