So, I've spent my free time at the office over the past few days creating a spreadsheet containing all of the possible outcomes in the Coastal division. There are 18 conference games remaining involving Coastal division teams, meaning there are 262,144 different possibilities for what could happen down the stretch, meaning there are 262,145 lines in my spreadsheet (including the header). Here is a breakdown of how many of those possibilities "belong" to each team, in terms of them making it to Charlotte:
Pitt: 106,078
UNC: 72,973
Duke: 72,013
Miami: 8,946
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 1142
UVA: 985
VT: 7
So you're saying there's a chance.
Here's what the Hokies need to happen in order to make it to Charlotte. First 18 columns are the games, 0 is away team winning, 1 is home team winning. After that is the final win tallies of the 7 teams. Right-click and open the new image in a new tab to view the full size, it's over one monitor wide.
I punched the "Win Probabilities" from the source Joel uses for his Advanced Numbers articles to get an idea of exactly where we stand in terms of more realistic probabilities, since most of the game results we need are fairly unlikely (such as Pitt losing to anybody, and UVA beating anybody, and Wake Forest beating Duke, for example). Turns out that it's even worse than I expected at first glance. Assuming that the computer ranking compilation Joel uses provides accurate point spread prediction, it appears that we are looking at roughly 16 BILLION to 1 odds. Here are the numbers for the rest of the conference:
Duke: 2.483:1 (40.27%)
Pitt: 3.225:1 (31.00%)
UNC: 4.782:1 (20.91%)
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 12.87:1 (7.768%)
Miami: 2220:1 (0.045%)
UVA: 9,532,000:1 (1.049E-5%)
VT: 16,040,000,000:1 (6.235E-9%)
Interesting that Pitt has the most possible outcomes, but Duke is the favorite to win, which makes sense since they are more likely to win more games than anyone else in the division.
Comments
Would you mind showing me the specific formulas?
It's a gigantic spreadsheet. The basics involve having one column for each remaining relevant game, and having a row for each possible combination of winners. IE, the first row is 18 0's, the second row is 17 0's and a 1, the next row is 16 0's, a 1 and a 0, etc.
I then use a few columns to denote final wins for each team in each scenario, take the max wins in each column, and count how many teams have the max wins to figure out if it's a single team or a tie. I then make another column for "winner", where if it's a single team I automatically populate that team's name in, and if it's a tie then I have it write "TIE".
That was the easy part. 95% of the work I put in was systematically going through and breaking all the ties. I make one of these every year, usually a little later on because it isn't until later that we're on the edge of being eliminated, and the later I make it the easier it is because there's fewer outcomes. 18 games put my computer to the test. I've been meaning to write a program to do it, that would automatically determine the tie scenarios, but I haven't found the time to do it yet.
Basically, it's a matrix where the columns represent ACC conference games and the rows represent all the possible combinations of the outcomes. The formula is likely the tiebreaker rules: http://www.theacc.com/page/ACC-Football-Championship-Tiebreakers
It would be a festivus miracle!!!!
Oh yeah, here's the breakdown of those ties broken by CFP rankings:
1,062 for a Duke-UNC-Pitt tie
52 for a Duke-UNC-UVA tie
14 for a Duke-Pitt-UVA tie
14 for a Duke-UNC-Pitt-UVA tie where UVA loses to all of the other 3, effectively making it a Duke-UNC-Pitt tie
I would like to add, I would upload the spreadsheet somewhere, but it is 58MB. I might try to make a condensed version without any of the more math-y columns if there's interest.
I guess Pitt's win over Syracuse mathematically eliminated GT then.
I haven't looked, but it's possible that even if Pitt had lost that game it might have been over for GT, based on needing the entire rest of the division to finish with 4 wins or less in such a way for them to take the tiebreaker, and the matchups may not have allowed it.
Would you share a graphic of the 7 scenarios needed for Virginia Tech to win the Coastal?
Right, duh, that would be useful. I'll take a screenshot of Excel, upload it somewhere, and edit it into the post.
If you don't have a preferred host, imgur.com is solid.
Done. This weekend we absolutely need to beat BC as well as a UNC win over Pitt, and we need either a UVA win over GT or a Miami win over Duke. From there, it's still really sticky.
If we have to rely on UVA and/or Miami...
We. Are. Doomed.
I'm assuming our only way of taking the division is to win out and fighting through tiebreakers.
If I'm reading your file right, then we have the following tie scenarios at 5-3:
VT/UNC (we would win on head-to-head)
VT/UNC/UVA (we would be 2-0 over those teams)
VT/UNC/UVA/Duke (we would be 2-1 over those teams)
Based on that and what I've figured out, it doesn't look like there's any scenarios where we win any tiebreakers with Pitt involved. Meaning we need Pitt to lose everything.
Meaning we need Pitt to lose everything.
Or win one, so we can worry about something else.
You would be correct. These are the only possible outcomes that result in a Hokies trip to Charlotte, and none of these outcomes involve Pitt winning another ACC game.
I didn't say it was likely. In fact, even if you "assume" that each team has a 50% chance to win each game, home/away and skill level bias be damned, this leaves us at about 1-in-35000 odds to win the division.
Better than 1-in-a-million, even!
It is the ACC after all.
#goacc
What world are we living in where there are more possibilities for uva to make it to Charlotte than VT?
Sigh, this world. It's why Whit is going to have to replace a legend.
One where we're 1-3 and they're 1-2. It'll even out soon.
So the scenarios that have to happen that are out of VT's control:
-
UNC beats Pitt= done-
UNC beats Duke= done- Duke beats Pitt
- Miami beats UNC
- UVA beats Duke
- Louisville beats Pitt
- Miami beats Pitt
- NC State beats UNC
If any one of the above scenarios doesn't happen, according to the spreadsheet, VT is unable to win the Coastal.
Edit: Updating this as long as each scenario plays out in our favor.
And we have to win all 4 of our remaining games. I did say that there are only 7 positive outcomes out of over a quarter-million. Just enough to not be mathematically eliminated, not enough to get excited about.
Mind if I copy your list into the main post? It would help illustrate the point, I think.
So it looks like for this weekend, the main outcomes we need are UNC over Pitt, and VT over BC.
And the UNC/Pitt game is on Thursday, so all of this could be moot by Friday.
UVA beats...??
So basically it's impossible.
yep, at this point, seeing LOLUVa finish with the least number of wins is higher on my list than falling backwards into the ACCCG. LOLUVa losing their games and Hokies winning the ACC should never be mutually exclusive or we're doing it wrong.
Well we're 1 for 1!
this is such a long shot but...none of these outcomes would really surprise me except for any lolUVA win and possibly the NC state vs UNC but they usually play that game close. If this were to happen it would be absolutely crazy.
Yeah other than the UVA win and Miami beating Pitt, this is incredibly realistic. Now us winning out.... we shall see.
You should probably temper your expectations a little bit. Even if all of these "must win" games happen the way we need them to, it's still a highly-improbable proposition. 6 of the 7 outcomes resulting in a Hokies trip to Charlotte depend on Wake Forest beating Duke, and the only one that doesn't require that also requires Miami to beat Duke and for UVA to beat both GT and Louisville.
Maybe, you're the OP and I haven't looked into things past the comments.
Also, you know its a sad time when someone says "temper your expectations" and my internal response is: "trust me, I have no expectations anymore"
If Kaaya is playing, I think Miami beats Pitt. Even in front of a raucous Heinz stadium crowd.
I mean if Miami is gonna be comfortable on the road, where better than an empty NFL stadium?
I would give you an upvote but I don't have enough legs! I would give another if the game time/date/network was listed next to each bullet. :)
correct me if Im wrong, but I thought we needed UVA to be Miami as well to still have our slim to no chance of winning the Coastal.
.00267% chance? Unlikelier things have happened.
I must ask.... Like what?
There's a .0015% chance of getting a royal flush in 5 card poker. I once turned a royal flush playing hold 'em, but in a 7 card poker game, the likelihood is bolstered to .0032%. Source.
So, VT to the ACC championship is more likely to happen than getting a royal flush in 5 card poker, but less likely to happen than getting a royal flush in texas hold em.
Leg for poker analogies!
And don't forget...in the poker game of life women are the rake
Once you include the probabilities of each outcome based on the probabilities of each game result, our chances drop to lower than getting a royal flush in 5-card poker... and then getting another royal flush the next hand. Just for perspective.
Something something there's a chance.
I knew things were bad, but to have fewer "chances" to make it to the ACC title game then UVA.,,ugh
That's just because UVA was gifted a bye before we were.
I won't be truly disgusted unless their win total is higher than ours.
So, looks like I'm a Chapel Hill fan tonight.
Dammit.
Our third favorite team since October 11 was whoever was playing Pitt.
(When UVA played Pitt on October 10, our internal programming suffered a system error.)
But I want to see UNC win just for the #goacc aspect of it all.
Basically something like this?
Dan Patrick: With the first nine months of the Baseketball postseason out of the way, the playoff picture is starting to emerge.
Kenny Mayne: So, with last night's victory over Boston, next week the Milwaukee Beers must beat Indianapolis in order to advance to Charlotte. That's in an effort to reduce their magic number to three.
Dan Patrick: Right, and then the Beers can advance to the National Eastern Division North to play Tampa.
Kenny Mayne: So, if the Beers beat Detroit and Denver beats Atlanta in the American Southwestern Division East Northern, then Milwaukee goes to the Denslow Cup, unless Baltimore can upset Buffalo and Charlotte ties Toronto, then Oakland would play LA and Pittsburgh in a blind choice round robin. And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.
This. Is. AWESOME! I love the absurd scenarios just for the sake of the absurd scenarios.
As for the size of the spreadsheet, just wait ten more days and it'll be way smaller.
Something to keep in mind for tonight's UNC/Pitt game -- UNC is bowl eligible with their next win. (While they are currently at 6 wins, two of those are FCS teams, so only one counts.) Pitt is already bowl eligible.
Would a loss by Virginia this week eliminate them? I think the 7 vs 985 thing is getting overblown.
I don't think it would completely eliminate them, but it would probably take away most of those 900 scenarios.
UVA is only eliminated this weekend if they lose to GT and Duke beats Miami. Though, even if they lose and Miami beats Duke, they'll still have either 12 or 8 scenarios, versus either 2 for us if UNC wins tonight and we beat BC on Saturday or 0 if either of those two things doesn't happen. Meaning they'll still technically have a better shot at 1-3 than we would at 2-3, based on tiebreakers at 5-3.
You're spending an awful lot of energy contemplating two scenarios that aren't going to happen.
VT or UVa in the ACC Championship this year.
With that file he's made, I don't think it's taking a lot of time for him to generate these answers.
Took longer to open the file than it did to change 2 filters.
Good point. Might as well get some mileage out of your model. The hard work's done.
After this weekend, the best case scenario is that we are left with 3 outcomes that will send us to ACCCG.
UNC beats PITT
MIAMI beats DUKE
UVA beats GT
VT beats BC
That'll leave us with three combinations out of 16,384 possibilities, increasing our current odds from 0.00267% to 0.01831%, which makes VT going to the ACCCG almost 7 times more likely to happen.
Just trying to make this sound good.
what if the GT/LOLUVa game gets canceled due to lightning? Cause that's the best (nicest) outcome I can think of for a game we need LOLUVa to win
Haha. Yes, unfortunately we need UNC and UVA to pretty much win out except for when they play us, and we need PITT to lose out, plus a couple other games need to go our way.
Buzzketball season, very soon.
Come on hurricanes!!!
sounds good to me...cause all 4 just happened....
Wow you're right.
yeah...id post the dumb & dumber gif 'so you're saying there's a chance'...but i'm just a little too tired of it.....
Yeah lets put this in perspective. The longest odds mid-season in baseball of a team making the playoffs and still making the playoffs was the 1914 Boston Braves who jumped out to a 10-24 record and had less than a 10000:1 odds of making the playoffs.
Right now, our current odds of making Charlotte are around 37450:1
I love the glimmer of hope. GO TARHEELS!!!
I just added the "win probabilities" that Joel uses in his "Advanced Numbers" articles to the spreadsheet, to get an idea of how likely each scenario is. On average, each given scenario has 262,144:1 odds. However, all 7 of our scenarios are highly unlikely compared to the norm, with the "least unlikely" clocking in at roughly 38 BILLION to one. That outcome relies on 12 of the 18 games featuring upsets, with 8 games where the underdog has less than a 20% chance to win and 2 games where they have less than a 10% chance to win.
This results in our total chances of heading to Charlotte being about 16,000,000,000:1. And here I thought it was bad when the raw numbers were implying it was around 35,000:1.
I'll go ahead and update the original post with the more advanced probabilities in a few minutes, when my computer finishes calculating them.
For perspective,
There is a 289,000,000:1 chance of winning the MegaMillions lottery, currently valued at $129M. Likewise, there is a 175,000,000:1 chance of winning Powerball, currently valued at $127M. Thus, you would have a 55X or 91X, respectively, better chance to win ~$128M than VT has to make it to the ACCCG.
That's crazy.
The above are based on the various combos... But what also needs to be observed is a match vs match each team does not have the same chance of winning.
The "16 billion" number takes that into account. The initial "35,000" number does not.
You mean like this?
yep missed that part
Typical for this division.
Back in 2013, circa week 12, I calculated 17 possible scenarios for how the Coastal could end up. 7 went for VT, 4 for Miami, 3 for GT, and 3 for Duke. At the time, Duke was the only team that controlled their own destiny, yet they had the fewest possibilities.
Anybody know any bookies willing to take a bet at our 16 Billion:1 odds? I'll put in ten dollars for the cause.
Don't look meow but Pitt is getting its ass beat into halftime
Found this note on ESPN:
Which is a trend I used to notice with other teams.
And with UNC winning, we live to see another day. Down to about a 1-in-8-billion chance now.
EDIT: I lied. I estimated since the game last night was fairly close to 50-50 in terms of computer rankings that it would double our chances, but I forgot about the +3 for home-field advantage. Our updated chances from last night (pending an updated computer rankings release based on the results from last night) have us at 1-in-5.8-billion.
Hahaha.
And so it begins...
So far, so good.
Full update based on UNC's win last night:
In beating Pitt, UNC took the lead as the favorite to win the Coastal division, partially because Duke has yet to play Pitt, and that will be fairly close to a toss-up, and also because Duke has to play in Chapel Hill, where UNC is slightly favored to win.
In terms of raw numbers of outcomes, here's where each team stands:
UNC: 65,617
Duke: 36,834
Pitt: 22,180
Miami: 5242
UVA: 624
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 568
VT: 7
Factoring in win probabilities taken from a conglomerate of computer rankings, here is where each team stands on probability of winning:
UNC: 2.021:1 (49.47%)
Duke: 2.756:1 (36.29%)
Pitt: 11.38:1 (8.789%)
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 18.5:1 (5.404%)
Miami: 2122:1 (0.047%)
UVA: 6,690,000:1 (1.495E-5%)
VT: 5,828,000,000:1 (1.715E-8%)
Wow. Amazing that Pitt just lost 80% of its possible paths to Coastal dominance with a single loss.
On the flip side, UNC kept 90% of theirs, which would have been flipped if they had lost.
Having lost that game, Pitt became very unlikely to win the division outright, and it put them behind the 8-ball as far as tiebreakers go.
It seems so odd that UNC has nearly 30,000 more paths to victory than Duke, given that they're both unbeaten in conference. I rationally understand that's it's because Duke has one more conference game to play, but it just seems like such a huge difference.
Sorry it's taken so long to post, was caught up in the excitement of that finish (wife is a Cane...)
Miami's 8 laterals and overturned block in the back now give us a 1-in-200-million chance to win.
I'll post a full report tomorrow, supposed to math responsibly and all.
If no one minds me interjecting for a moment to spin the ACC Wheel of Destiny on the Atlantic side...
It's down to Clemson (5-0) or FSU (5-1). The winner next week will have 6 wins, meaning a worst case record of 6-2.
Syracuse, NC State, Wake Forest, and BC all have more than 2 losses. Louisville only has two losses, but they are to Clemson and FSU, so they cannot win any tiebreakers. Therefore, they are done.
If Clemson beats FSU, they clinch the division. Even if they lose the rest of their games, they would be 6-2, which is the best record FSU could obtain, so Clemson wins on head-to-head.
If FSU beats Clemson, they would still need to beat NC State the following week (ending 7-1 with head-to-head). Or, if they lose to NC State (ending 6-2), they could clinch if Clemson loses one of their last two (ending at 6-2 or 5-3).
For simplicity's sake, I would like to see Clemson win next week.
Neat. I don't see Clemson losing to Syracuse or Wake Forest, so I think the FSU game is the last chance for them to really lose in-conference. Who even knows what could happen against USCe on rivalry weekend, but from what I've seen of them so far, I think they beat USCe.
UNC appears to be the leader on the Coastal side, but still have to play Miami, Duke, VT, and NCSt. Their coastal schedule is very backloaded. Pitt still has to play Miami, Duke, ND, and NCSt. Another backloaded schedule. The ACC Wheel of Destiny will probably turn many times this November. Can't wait.
Just curious - do any of the cfp scenarios involve the hokies? Wouldn't that increase our odds?
No. Any of the ties involving VT are solved through the tiebreakers, before getting to the CFP rankings. Besides, there's no way we'd have any votes at 7-5, so it probably wouldn't increase our chances at all.
tl;dr: Virginia Tech has about a 50M:1 chance to win the Coastal.
Full update based on Saturday's action, greatly aided by Miami's ridiculous 8-lateral TD return:
UNC now becomes the major favorite to represent the Coastal in Charlotte, due to their win over Pitt on Thursday and the refs ripping the game from Duke on the final play (less than a minute after the refs gift-wrapped the game to Duke with two PI penalties, but I digress).
In terms of raw numbers of outcomes, here's where each team stands:
UNC: 8,906
Duke: 3,074
Pitt: 2,909
Miami: 1,240
UVA: 186
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 66
VT: 3
Factoring in win probabilities taken from a conglomerate of computer rankings, here is where each team stands on probability of winning:
UNC: 1.147:1 (87.19%)
Duke: 16.88:1 (5.925%)
Pitt: 18.50:1 (5.404%)
Miami: 73.97:1 (1.352%)
Ties broken by final CFP rankings: 778.4:1 (0.128%)
UVA: 83,780:1 (1.194E-3%)
VT: 47,300,000:1 (2.111E-6%)
To review:
By beating Pitt, UNC went from contending underdog to massive favorite. By losing their respective games this weekend, Pitt and Duke went from the front-runners to essentially needing UNC to slip up to even have a chance.
Miami actually brought themselves into the conversation with a win over Duke. At this point, if they can manage to win out, they just need a loss by UNC and Duke each to make it to Charlotte, a relatively straightforward proposition.
UVA and VT are still laughably in contention, if the chaos from this weekend continues. UVA went from roughly half of the odds of winning at least $1M from Mega Millions to the chance of being dealt a straight flush in 5-card stud. The Hokies went from roughly the odds of, over the course of 3 hands, getting a royal flush and a 4-of-a-kind to about the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot when buying 5 unique tickets. Still not in contention, but also not mathematically eliminated either, which is about all we could have hoped for coming into the weekend.
And, for the sake of the conversation, in order for us to remain in contention while we're up against that intimidating opponent some call BYE this weekend, we need the following other outcomes from across the Coastal division:
UNC beats Duke
UVA beats Miami
Have to rely on loluva. That REALLY hurts our chances....
via GIPHY
I know...it sucks. Now I am just hoping they rest Kaaya another week.
Somehow the Hoos have had pretty good success against Miami in the last few years, it seems. Not as crazy as it might sound...
how much of that is Da U being Da U tho?
I think being Da U should be the new Clemsoning
I hate you
No you don't.
I guess we're out of contention now...?
I would love to have CFB coach 5 more games for us and go out with a bang!!!! If we fall into this game we need to wear throwbacks and honor CFB.
ARE YOU A GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE WHO'S USING TAX PAYER DOLLARS TO DO THIS SHEET?
If so I am ok with my money being spent as such.
I'm not a government employee, but my company does have some government research contracts, so... maybe a few tax dollars indirectly went into it?
ok so what needs to happen in the weeks coming up, walk me through it nice and simple...
VT - win out
PITT - lose out
UNC - Beat Duke, then lose out (lose to Miami, VT, NCSU)
GT - lose to VT, beat Miami
Duke - lose to UNC and UVA, beat PITT
UVA - beat MIAMI and Duke, lose to VT
If all of that takes place plus...
UVA beats UL and DUKE/WF doesn't matter
OR
UL beats UVA and WF beats DUKE
then we win Coastal...
Assuming this spreadsheet is correct.
Basically every game needs to go a certain way. The only game that might not matter is the DUKE/WF game.
I like it
I have seen crazier things happen. If it does...it could be a miracle finish.
Given what we've seen from the ACC in recent years, all of that is plausible. Likely? No. But plausible.
Pitt losing out is the least likely to happen. All the rest strikes me as par for the course.
I hope the division can at least keep it up for another week or two.
I'd hate to see Pitt win their next game and make all of this go away.
Let's face it: no matter what the Coastal looks like, we want to see Pitt lose.
Why does UVA have to beat UL? UL is in the Atlantic and UVA already has 2 conference loses. All we have to do is beat them and then we own the tie breaker.
might have something to do with tie-breakers
UVA has to have three losses so that they are a part of the tiebreakers. Their presence makes one of the earlier tiebreakers a wash, so that we can "win" one of the later tiebreakers.
Assuming all other games go as described...
If UL beats UVA then WF has to beat DUKE so that we end up in tie break with UNC. We win head to head. If DUKE beats WF, then we end up in tie break with Duke and UNC, we lose.
If UVA beats UL Duke/WF doesn't matter. Duke wins we end up in tie break with UVA, UNC, and Duke, apparently we win with a 2-1 record. If Duke loses to WF then we end up in tie break with UNC and UVA, we win with 2-0 record.
So, I got bored last night and worked through my own numbers. With the number of conference games remaining for everyone in the Coastal, there are 16,384 possible combinations of outcomes. Of those, 208 include VT tying for the lead at 5-3. It is not possible for us to win the division outright.
2-Way Ties: 3 combinations include VT
VT-UNC: 1 combination, we win the division (requires Pitt losing out, UNC beating only Duke, and Duke beating only Pitt)
VT-Pitt: 1 combination, we lose
VT-Duke: 1 combination, we lose
3-Way Ties: 42 combinations include VT
VT-UVa-UNC: only one combination yields this result. The other 41 result in 8 different 3-way ties, all of which we would lose.
4-Way Ties: 106 possible combinations, 13 of which result in a tie between VT-UVa-UNC and one other team, either Pitt, Miami or Duke. Of those 13 combinations, 4 include VT-UVa-UNC-Duke. Of those 4, we would win the tiebreaker in 1, needing Tarheel victory over Duke. I did not look at tiebreakers for scenarios that did not include UVA and UNC, as we would be no better than 1-2 in the first tiebreak.
5-way ties: There were 54 combinations that resulted in a 5-way tie including VT. 19 of those also included UVA and UNC. I didn't bother looking at tiebreakers, assuming that even if we do survive the first tiebreaker at no better than 2-2, our division record would kill us in the second.
6-way ties: With 3 possible combinations, the 6-way tie including everyone but Georgia Tech is still a possiblity. I'm personally rooting for one of these just for the sheer chaos of it all.
So (pretending that every game is a coinflip), there is at least a 3 in 16,384 chance (or 5460:1) of Tech getting to Charlotte. The odds could be slightly better in the unlikely event that we could win a 5- or 6-way tie.
I think at some point the tie beaker becomes who is ranked highest in the CFP standings.
Yes, and 66 of the 16,384 remaining outcomes end in such a tie. None of which involve us.
And according to the computer rankings that Joel Smith uses to calculate our win probabilities in his "(Advanced) Numbers" columns (such as http://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2015/november/4/updated-win-totals), there is a roughly 1-in-47-million chance that one of those 3 outcomes happens, because every game is not a coin flip and we need a lot of upsets, and even though most of them would be minor upsets the sheer number of them compounded together has a huge effect.
you number dudes...SMH. I live in a world of Dork Magic and possibilities.
That's roughly the odds of winning the lottery. And somebody wins the lottery every week...
Honestly, I just want to end the season 7-5. Go to a bowl game. Win that and send CFB out on a high note. I really don't care if we make it to the ACCCG.
Yes but 9-5 and Peach Bowl Champions......
Well I am daily praying that we somehow make the ACCCG and CFB and this team can have a shot to take on the #1 team in the nation (prob Clemson) in front of a big stage after a season turnaround. That would be an epic ending.
If the spreadsheet is correct, we were eliminated earlier with, you guessed it!, UVA losing to Miami
I'm looking over this...seeing if there's anything that was missed.
UNC 5-0, Pitt 4-1, Miami 3-2, Duke 3-2, VT 2-3
RIght off the bat, we need UNC and Pitt to both lose out, and both teams have yet to play Miami, who already has wins over VT and Duke. Pretty much, they're winning any tiebreakers, because their only ACC losses come from the Atlantic.
Stupid UVA.....
We're eliminated at this point. Miami would need to lose to both UNC and Duke in order for us to beat their conference record. Either of those would make it impossible to bring both UNC and Duke down to our level.
Best case scenario is either a team we lost to goes 5-3, or a team we beat goes 6-2. Any of those result in us losing the tiebreakers (even if it's a three-way or higher scenario).
TL;DR: We needed UVA to beat Miami so that UVA could beat Duke and force any scenario involving VT and Duke (both at 5-3) to go to the later tiebreakers where we would win.
Game over guys, it was a fun ride.
I'll still update the stats tomorrow with a full picture of the Coastal race, but at this point it's pretty much down to UNC taking care of business or them slipping up and Pitt, Duke or Miami taking advantage.
I blame UVA.
They are solely responsible for the three teams currently out of contention being taken out of contention. First, they beat GT, which gave the Bees too many losses. Then, they lose to Miami, which takes both Virginia schools out.
Sounds like someone deserves a thrashing on 11/28.
It took you this long since that game was scheduled to figure that out?
Allow me to clarify.
Sounds like someone deserves an extra thrashing on 11/28.
That's more like it!
Technically both Virginia schools are responsible for taking both Virginia schools out.
I really enjoyed this. Think we could do it again next season? Would be cool to watch it ebb and flow each week (from the start)
For a second there I thought you were talking about the coaching search:
<*/sarcastica=strong/*>
Um...no...I would rather not go through a coaching search again next year...
Our base template can already be drawn up. Roughly 16.7% chance for each of the six Coastal teams that aren't UVA.
I would love to see how LOLUVA could actually have a negative percentage change of winning.
/s - because I know the reasons
Updating, just to show how overwhelmingly favored UNC is at this point:
OUTCOMES:
UNC: 3160
Miami: 488
Pitt: 400
Duke: 48
(Virginia Tech and UVA have both been eliminated, and there are no more possible outcomes that would rely on CFP rankings)
PROBABILITIES:
UNC: 1.023:1 (97.7%)
Pitt: 76.5:1 (1.31%)
Miami: 110:1 (0.912%)
Duke: 1337:1 (0.0748%)
At this point, it would take a monumental collapse on the part of UNC for them to lose the Coastal. Also, Duke is hanging on by only a thread.
Which game(s) eliminated us?
I was trying to track the games that we had no control and would determine our fate, and from what I could tell we were still in it. Even though it was a .00000000001% chance.
We needed UVA to beat Miami this past weekend. When Miami won that game, we were eliminated.
Can't count on LOLUVA for anything.
Just look up....
Also, UNC clinches if they win any 2 of their last 3 games: Home against Miami, @VT, and @NCSU. These are the only ways that they lose:
UNC wins only one of their 3 remaining games, AND Pitt wins out (@Duke, Louisville, Miami)
UNC wins only one of their 3 remaining games, AND Miami wins out (@UNC, GT, @Pitt)
UNC loses the rest of their games, AND any one or more of the following:
the LOLUVA and Miami Game
We are effectively down to 5 scenarios in the Coastal.
Scenario #1: UNC finishes 8-0
Setup: UNC wins out
Outcome: UNC wins division, best record
Scenario #2: UNC finishes 7-1
Setup: UNC goes 1-1 in final two games
Outcome: UNC wins division, best record or head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt
(In this scenario, if Pitt wins out, then UNC clinches with the tiebreaker. If they lose any game, UNC wins on best record.)
Scenario #3: UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 5-3
Setup: UNC and Pitt both lose out
Outcome: UNC wins division, best record
Scenario #4: UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 6-2
Setup: UNC loses out, Pitt goes 1-1 in final two games
Outcome: UNC wins division, head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt
Scenario #5: UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 7-1
Setup: UNC loses out, Pitt wins out
Outcome: Pitt wins division, best record
Short version is:
UNC can clinch the division with a win OR a Pitt loss.
Pitt can clinch the division only by winning out AND UNC losing out.