By the (Advanced) Numbers: Virginia

This is the fourth year in a row Virginia Tech's eleven game Commonwealth Cup win streak is in serious jeopardy, and even the biggest Hokie homer has to admit at some point the streak will end. Normally the graphs and breakdown below try to assess the likelihood of each team winning, and where each team may have an advantage. But not this week. This is UVA hate week.

Stats show UVA has an advantage in some phase of the game? That's because football can't be reduced to numbers and computers don't watch the actual games.

Stats show VT has an advantage? That's because humans are subjective and computers are not. Statistics allow us to accurately quantify team performance.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is 5-6. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

How bad do the Hokies need to get to NOT be favored in this game?

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

The UNC loss didn't dash bowl hopes:

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

The most generous computer has Virginia at Virginia Tech's median ranking. Only one computer predicts a Wahoos victory, and that computer is Marsee, a system that currently rates as the 58th most accurate out of 68 systems. The most accurate system on the graph (Dokter Entropy), predicts the Hokies will beat the spread and win by 5.5. The odds of a 3.5-point favorite winning are 60.4%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

The Hokie defense is better than the Cavalier offense, and the Hokie offense is better than the Cavalier defense. Also, the Hokie women are prettier, the men more handsome, and Blacksburg's water tastes better than Charlottesville's.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when Tech's offense has the ball?

Of the four ratings, Virginia Tech has the advantage in four of them. For those that learned math in Charlottesville, that's 100%, or the chance that the cashier at the Vineyard Vines knows you by name.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Travon McMillian, familiarize yourself with the Cavaliers' secondary. They'll be attempting the first tackles you'll need to break.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Hoo defense:

The Wahoo defense has created as many 3-and-outs (First Down Rate) as UVA had fans at their spring game.

The No. 84 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Kansas State
2. UConn
3. Louisiana-Lafayette

The No. 84 Virginia defense is closest in personality to:

1. Syracuse
2. New Mexico
3. Army

When Virginia Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Virginia has the edge here except in Line Yards, Run Success Rate, Power Success Rate, Stuff Rate, and Sack Rate.

As for personality traits:

Looks like the Hokies have a clear advantage in efficiency. Also in first down rate. Also available yards gained. And methodical drives. And value drives.

The No. 48 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Arizona State
2. Notre Dame
3. Louisville

The No. 70 Virginia offense is closest in personality to:

1. BYU (How can they be similar if they can't share a Zima?)
2. Northern Illinois
3. South Carolina

Special Teams

A look at special teams:

The Hokies are better at kicking field goals, preventing field goals, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, and punt returns. Is that good?

Who To Watch Out For

The most talented Cavaliers include:

1. RB Taquan Mizzell has fumbled five times en route to a 4.2 YPC average, good for 201st in the nation (there are 128 FBS teams).
2. QB Matt Johns is tied for the lead among FBS quarterbacks in completions. To the opposing defense (15 interceptions).
3. The ball-hawking secondary has picked off more passes this season (3, T-122nd) than Rice (2, 128th).

Statistical Key to the Game

Virginia Tech holds rushing and passing advantages, on both defense and offense, as well as the advantage in every phase of special teams. Just don't lose the damn turnover battle, Hokies.

Statistical Prediction

Virginia Tech is predicted to have 197 yards passing and 195 yards rushing. Virginia is predicted 176 yards passing and 181 yards rushing. There is high probability that Mike London botches his use of time outs at some point.

38-0 bro.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.