Tonight. 7 PM. Radford.
Time to take our home on the road, #HokieNation pic.twitter.com/Wv3o2w4MFZ— VT Men's Basketball (@VT_MBBall) December 9, 2015
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Hokies fans, Tonight's game against our cross river opponent will be the tale of which team shows up. Radford has had a season of ups and downs, some slightly higher than the Hokies but just as many down as Tech as well. It all seems to be in which team shows up. Are the Hokies going to face the Radford squad that beat Georgetown in Overtime or the one that followed that big win with a 20+ point loss to VCU? The Highlander team that beat Penn State or followed with a loss to JMU? The scary point is that this seems to be a team that can get up for at least one big game at a time and considering they are coming off their first in-conference loss to Coastal Carolina, I am sure their coaching staff has them focused and ready to go for the Hokies. This is also the first time a Radford home game has sold out since 2009 so the building will be packed, although no telling which team they are there to cheer on until game time.
In their wins this season, Radford has held opponents to shooting 19.8% from outside the arc, but in their losses, opponents have been shooting almost 45% from outside so this could be a big game for Justin Bibbs to assert himself and his ACC leading 65.5% three point shooting so far this year. Any game Radford has given up more than 7 three pointers, they have come out on the losing end this season. Tech needs to take advantage of this weakness and put up some clean looks from outside.
The free throw line has been a major issue for both of these teams. So far Radford is only shooting 62% on the season from the charity stripe while opponents are shooting 72%. It has averaged out to about a two point difference per game. That two point difference though has been against teams averaging 19.3 trips to the line per game, not the 34 trips (273 attempts) the Hokies have been averaging this season. Tech is gradually improving, currently up to 67% from the line while opponents are shooting the same, but this has meant Tech has a ten to twelve point advantage at the line because they have only allowed opponents to the line 108 times this season (13.5 att per game). The game likely rides on which of these teams' trends remain the same. If both do, than Tech likely benefits the most.
The Highlanders are led by Senior Guard Rashun Davis, (#5) 5'11 185 Lbs, who has stepped into the role of RJ Price from last season, who hit up Tech for 25 points. So far Davis is averaging 14.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG and an impressive 5.6 APG. Davis is not much of a threat from the perimeter but will still attempt two to three shots from outside each game. He is much more like our guards in that he drives to the basket with the intent of shooting or getting fouled. He has taken 50 of his team's 193 attempts at the line, shooting at an 80% clip.
He is joined in the backcourt by Cameron Jones, Senior Guard, (#3) 6'4, 180 Lbs who is scoring 12.4 PPG while grabbing 4.3 RPG. Jones is their perimeter shooter that we need to worry about tonight. He has hit 41% from outside, going 22-53 over nine games.
One of the top freshmen in the Big South, Ed Polite Jr. (#24) 6'5, 200 Lbs Forward, comes in averaging 9.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG. He has a deadly soft touch in the lane and the uncanny ability to be in the right spot to pull in offensive rebounds, averaging almost 4 offensive rebounds per game so far. This has allowed him to get quite a few easy put back baskets so whoever is responsible for guarding Polite will need to ensure they get inside position when rebounding. He is much the same matchup nightmare as Chris Clarke for the Hokies seems to be. Too fast for big men to cover and too big for smaller guards to be successful against. Game by game the coaching staff has increased his playing time and the effect has been linear on his impact on the game. The more time he is on the court, the more damage he does to opponents. He seems to play their sixth man role quite often but plays as many minutes as any of the primary starters.
The three remaining starters seem to be Senior Forward Kion Brown (#00) 6'7, 200 Lbs, Sophomore Guard Justin Cousin (#14) 6'0, 195 Lbs and Brandon Holcomb (#55) 6'7, 255 Lbs Senior Center. Many of you may recall Holcomb from last year, where he put up 14 points, grabbed 7 rebounds and had 3 blocks against the Hokies down low to help them win that game. He had two huge offensive rebounds that led to five points late in that game including a thunderous dunk with under two minutes to play. His minutes this year are down though, only getting about 14 MPG so far which seems counter intuitive based on his impact last season so I am not sure if he has been dealing with more talented teammates, an injury, or just happens to be in the coaches dog house. Whichever the case, let's hope he has less impact this year as this game proceeds tonight.
This team plays fast and small, relying on their quickness to get open shots and or drive to the rim. In that regard they are very similar to the Hokies. On defense, they run mostly zone as they do not have the size to rely on to handle much man to man. This also is very similar to the Hokies and explains why when opponents shoot well from the perimeter, Radford struggles. They don't have much size so LeDay should be able to work down low against the Highlanders and our guards can continue to pick their time to drive the lane as the Highlanders will have to worry about drop off passes to big men allowing easy dunk baskets.
This game will likely stay fairly close throughout but if things are going the way they should with the increased talent on our roster from last year, Tech should be able to put this one away 69-64. I do believe that the free throw line will make all the difference. Foul trouble will also force Radford to adjust how much its starters can be out there, changing their offensive dynamic significantly.
That said, it's a Radford home game, the first time Tech is playing in a true road game this year, the first time Tech is playing at Radford in our series against them and Radford is coming off a bad loss so they will be amped up for the Hokies. Survive the storm that will likely be the first half, and then put the Highlanders away in the second half with steady shooting from the perimeter and the line.
I guess the only other question we need answered: Will Tyrone show up again tonight?
Comments
I agree with your assessment. This feels like tough 4-5 point to me. The animosity in the building should be palpable so I'm hoping that our desire for vengeance could cancel out Radford's atmosphere.
Having said that, I think I said the exact same thing before the ECU football game this year.
funny to think of a 15 minute drive as a road game. Anyone with tickets, make sure you go to chip away at radford's home court advantage...
PSA: The women's team is also playing at 7 tonight at home to continue their red hot 7-1 start! Support one of the teams if you can!
Great review, thanks for the information. I will be catching it online and cheering for the Hokies!
Gametime. Lets go Hokies
LEDAYYYY!
(AND BIBBS!)
EDIT: (AND CLARK!)
That was a good start
Nice energy so far. LeDay is ballin out.
Did they turn all the lights back on after the starter announcements?
Gotta keep this up.
Why aren't any of the graphics spelled correctly?
"Leads Seriss 7-2"
"Virgina Tech 12 Radford 2"
Reminds me of a couple of years ago when a good number of Radford's diplomas misspelled Virginia. I don't know why they can't spell it.
so many Hardees commercials!!!!!
Yes, was thinking about breakfast this morning, and it hit me yet again: no Hardees in New York.
It almost makes me want those New Years Eve bowl commercials that ESPN3 plays at every break. Almost.
Playing with energy!
Looks like Radford has more fans there than UVA's spring game.
So like...4 (and 2 are photoshopped)?
Nice 12-2 run to the first media timeout
am i the only one annoyed by the sound made when the RU logo flashes on the screen?
you are most certainly not alone.
That compounded with the fact that they use it every 5 seconds when the ball isn't in play. Also the one announcer that has his mike level way to high is annoying. It sounds like the mike was inserted into his throat.
I've got to say, I enjoyed their coverage quite a bit more than I ever do on ESPN3. I geeked out and had the game on the ipad alternating between mute and low while updating twitter via phone in hand. I saw a few comments about the mic level and never noticed the Radford sound. For me, not having to fire up xbox to use ESPN3 is always a plus. Also, their stream didn't seem to use a lot of bandwidth so never had any lag (though I wouldn't have wanted to blow the stream up any larger than ipad).
You know you can watch espn3 through the espn3 app on your Ipad...
First world problems haha
Given up a few offensive rebounds, but I am more than okay with a 23-8 lead
Would have been nice to get the rebound off the desperation three, but 14th in the nation in rebounding is nice (was that offense or defense or both?).
Can someone tell the graphics guy that it's not spelled "Virgina Tech"...it's driving me crazy.
That and the fact that the announcer's audio levels are way different is killing my speakers. And my eardrums.
Score is slow to update as well.
nice to know VT gets publicity via the Lewis Gale Sports Medicine center every time Radford games are broadcast
Where the fuck was this team for the first month of the season??
20-point lead!
Excellent ball movement on offense. They're doing a great job of moving around and kicking to open shooters.
3-4 beyond arc and getting turnovers.
that moment their announcers compare their point guard to steph curry..
Yeah I'm listening to Jon and Mike on my phone.
I'm 90% sure they said Seth too....
And he clangs the open 3
About as focused a start as I've seen from Hokies in a long time.
Literally some of the worst officiating I've ever seen. Amazingly bad
and announcing
Clarke is struggling down there in the paint on defense, looking more like a SF this year.
I just saw someone in the crowd wearing a TKP Sacksburg shirt. That person is making some quality life decisions.
Neither team wanted to score last...
(edit: meant this to be a new comment, not a reply)
Assuming we win, this was really smart scheduling by Buzz Williams & Co. Play in a raucous environment at an "away" game against a team you know you can beat. It's like an appetizer for when we play in Cameron Indoor, JPJ etc.
We aren't attacking the basket as much today. I wonder if that's a side effect of having Blackshear in the game so much? or we just aren't being very aggressive. Of course I'll take 41 first half points. Just would like to see us at the line more often in the 2nd half.
Seth Allen and Jalen Hudson were attacking well early, seems to have slowed, probably the result of Radford switching to a zone defense for a stretch.
On another note, the half court camera us set way dark, makes it look like half the lights are out.
Jesus dude. Move the mic away from your mouth a little bit.
Going to use my 3rd tweet ever to tell @RadfordMBB to move that guys mic back. Hard to believe anything would be more annoying than that Redford replay noise
We're starting to get to the line some but we're falling into old habits of missing them.
I never thought I would contemplate switching from the boys to the girl's game, but this starting to become a blowout
Have you seen that score? We're winning by even more
I had not but thanks for the heads up
I think Radford still has a run or two in them.
Yep. And we really need to start making those free throws or it may get a little too close for comfort.
My god the production value is god awful.
It is. but I'm just thankful I can watch the game. So I'm okay with it.
But it's free.
Blackshear is showing some good feet and signs of progression on defense, glad a bunch of these young guys can get some playing time with a lead and a little less pressure where they can focus on the fundamentals.
Things starting to get sloppy defensively and ball control wise
Radford fans leaving already? Biggest home game in 6 years and they're leaving early?
MS Paint game so deluxe tho.
Thanks brah, I spent hours on it
Holcomb will end up getting T'd up. all that taunting is ridiculous.
Still think Blackshear's foot affects his free throw shooting.
What is wrong with it? I noticed he kept his left heel off the ground during FTs
Supposedly an injury that doesn't have pain and the plan is surgery in the offseason
Make. Your. Free, Throws.
Also, why have the Radford students been sitting down the whole time? What kind of college student section spends the entire game sitting down?
Most of them are probably attending their first college basketball game. They don't know what to do.
You would think they would be more into it considering it's one of the few times they get to participate like this on their campus.
My high school gym was bigger and had more students standing than Radford does right now.
Not closing out on shooters and giving up easy buckets in the lane. Not the way to close this game out. They better be careful.
Refs failing to officiate this correctly, new rule meant that the Radford timeout should have replaced the media timeout
Getting sloppy and lazy out there. Not good.
These refs are....bad.
The tech we have know is showing its ugly head, missed free throws and turnovers.
It looks like they just checked out mentally when they got up big. Totally forgot how to shoot FTs and got lazy on O.
I haven't seen the whole game but Allen appears to be playing in much better control today. Stepping up big here at the end.
Wow I just checked in and evidently we are 50% from the line...
I am shocked, I thought for sure we were below 50% from what I have seen
yeah it hasn't been pretty
Not trying to "hate" on any of our guys, but every time Wilson touches the ball I'm expecting a turnover. I just don't see what others are seeing. Would much rather see Robinson or Allen handling the ball all the time.
Everyone was sporadic with the ball down the stretch. But Wilson played pretty dang good today in the first half and to about midway through the second. Allen had two crucial turnovers when Radford was making a push. Wilson is a calming effect to this team when he is on the floor.
I would say the opposite and he is the most consistent with the ball by far. Look at his turnover numbers compared to Allen and Robinson's. Plus with Wilson's success at the line I wouldn't want the ball in anyone else's hands at the end of the game. Glad to see him make a three tonight too.
To give you an idea of why its actually the exact opposite of what you are looking for, SportsReference.com provides some excellent advanced statistics regarding points per possession, turnovers, etc.
Their statistical category for Offensive Rating is how many points they score or help produce over 100 possessions. Currently this season, Wilson has a 137.4 rating, Robinson has a 101.8 and Allen has a 99.6. The key thing to keep in mind is the help produce, which is where Wilson exceeds everyone on the team.
They have the same information for Defensive Rating, and in that Wilson is a 100, Robinson is a 102.9, and Allen is a 99.7. This says overall that Allen is allowing the fewest points per 100 opponent possessions.
The big key to look at though is the differential between the two ratings for Overall Effectiveness. Wilson is a +37.4 points produced overall, while Robinson is a -1.1 and Allen (much improved over the last four games) is a -0.1. Four games ago Allen had the third worst differential on this team excluding Galloway and Donlon.
Specifically to turnovers, Allen is averaging 6.5 TO per 100 possessions, Robinson is 5.1 and Wilson is 2.3. Wilson takes care of the ball much better than the other two guards here.
Redford keeps padding our free throw attempts. Unfortunately, we aren't improving on our free throw percentage. We have to get better eventually, right??
Little Tyrone to finish
15-28 at the line. Terrible
Good win, this game scared me to death.
This is one of the worst free throw shooting teams I have ever seen. We have enough young talent to stay in games but I fear until the free throw shooting improves it will become our achilles heal.
Tonight was bad at 54% but they are more inconsistent than worst shooting which is almost more frustrating. They shot 77.5% against APB, 78.3% against Northwestern, and 75% against UAB. Total dud against Iowa State at 48%. 68% against NCAT, 72.7% against VMI, another 50% dud against Jacksonville State, and definitely cost us the game at 62.5% against Alabama State. Season they are at 65.7% now, so its definitely an area of the game where you never know what you are going to get. This one, they just seemed to get lackadaisical after getting a big lead and couldn't fix it as Radford closed back in. Buzz will surely have the line on his mind tonight, wouldn't want to be those guys tomorrow even with a win.
Yes it was ugly and the free throws weren't hit but remember last year. We were up six with 3 minutes to play and couldn't close out. Today we did that and got the first away win. Even if it is "only" Radford, it's another small step forward for this young team. Now we must take this momentum, hit more free throws, and play sound ball the whole game next time.
All things considered, we lost to Alabama State at home earlier this year, so I'll take the road win against a team who badly wanted to beat us.