By the (Advanced) Numbers: Tulsa

There should be 64 bowl games and every team should go to one. Bowl games are this crazy bonus at the end of the football season where teams suddenly get to play one last game against an unanticipated opponent. Bowl season is one of the many things that makes college football great.

Tulsa was not on my radar in any way until Virginia Tech accepted its Independence Bowl bid. Over the past two weeks I took an interest in a team I knew little about. Here's what I learned:

• Tulsa is in the AAC (formerly Big East). I follow college football closely, and at least until I had children, would have watched pretty much any game for about 12 hours every Saturday. I did not know Tulsa was one of the schools scooped up by the AAC. Hopefully I'm not the only one.
• The mascot is the Golden Hurricane. Not Golden Hurricanes with an "s" like the Miami Hurricanes, but singular like Thundering Herd or Crimson Tide. I was completely aware of the mascot, but never realized it was supposed to be singular.
• This tidbit from Tulsa's team history is so great that I quit reading after it: "It was Nov. 13, 1915 when Tulsa used the 'tower play' against Missouri School of the Mines. The play calls for one player to jump on a teammates' shoulders to catch a pass. It worked in a 117-0 win. In 1916, the play was banned."

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech finished the regular season 6-6 and earned a trip to the prestigious Independence Bowl against Tulsa. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

A win would secure a winning season for the Hokies, and send Frank out right. A loss would certainly be disappointing, but only a temporary setback as Virginia Tech will be national champions in 2016—at least by my projections.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

According to Las Vegas, this is the most lopsided bowl matchup this season with the Hokies opening as a two-touchdown favorite over Tulsa (since then dropping to 13.5 points). The odds of a 13.5-point favorite winning are 83.6%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Tulsa has a decent offense relative to its talent pool — decent enough, in fact, that Texas pulled out all the stops to woo offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert to the same position for the Longhorns. While Gilbert's system will be in place for the matchup in Shreveport, he won't be. Fortunately for the Hokies, the Golden Hurricane defense is bad enough that not even Tulsa wants their defensive coordinator. The lopsided defensive ability gives the Hokies a clear overall advantage.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

Not surprisingly, the Virginia Tech offense rates average across the board — not particularly good anywhere, and not particularly bad. The Tulsa defense, meanwhile, is bad across the board and should give the Tech offense plenty of options to attack.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Examining the adjusted line yards produced by the Hokie offensive line against that of the Golden Hurricane defensive line, one can expect good push on offense and control at the line of scrimmage. The biggest weakness of Stacey Searels' unit is giving up sacks at a high rate, a characteristic that will hopefully be kept in check by Tulsa's poor rating at getting sacks from its line.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Golden Hurricane defense:

The one area Tulsa's defense rates decently on is preventing methodical drives, but this is somewhat expected when you frequently give up explosive drives. If teams are able to move the ball in big chunks, there's no opportunity for or need for methodical drives.

The FEI No. 96 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Akron
2. Louisiana-Lafayette
3. Kansas State

The FEI No. 103 Tulsa defense is closest in personality to:

1. New Mexico
2. Fresno State
3. Army

When Tulsa Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Like the Hokies, the Golden Hurricane are similarly-rated across the board with no particular strength or weakness in passing or rushing. Unlike the Hokies, they will have to face a defense that, while disappointing relative to preseason expectations, remains an above average defense.

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

While Tulsa is not particularly good at creating yards, their stuff rate suggests it is difficult to get to them behind or at the line of scrimmage on running plays. Fortunately, their sack rate — especially combined with that of Tech's defensive line, suggests it is not particularly difficult to get to the QB behind the line on passing plays.

As for personality traits:

This is a very balanced matchup, without either side having a clear advantage on any traits.

The FEI No. 43 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. West Virginia
2. LSU
3. Baylor

The FEI No. 50 Tulsa offense is closest in personality to:

1. Pittsburgh
2. UCLA
3. Iowa

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokie's units:

Virginia Tech has quietly put together very solid special teams play in Frank's last season. It's currently the No. 8 unit in the country. Field goal kicking and punting in particular have been very strong, with opponents only returning 18 out of 67 punts for 2.83 YPR. Furthermore, the Hokies have downed 21 punts inside the opponent's 20 while only allowing 9 touchbacks.

Then the Tulsa units:

Tulsa also has a strong punting unit, but is very weak at returning both kickoffs and punts. It's hard to fathom the Golden Hurricane breaking any kind of meaningful punt return in this game.

Who To Watch Out For

(Quarterback Dane Evans is not a great runner!):

1. Although he does not gain as many carries as leading running backs Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewer, freshman Ramadi Warren has statistically produced easily the best numbers and is a much more explosive threat.
2. Evans has passed for 3,958 yards but has taken sacks on 7.4% of passing downs (high but not as high as Brewer's 9.1%).
3. 6-4 SR WR Keyarris Garrett is targeted on over 1/3 of pass attempts, accumulating 1,451 yards receiving with 9.8 YPT and 16.5 YPC.

Statistical Key to the Game

Tulsa's offense scares me some, but there's no one category where things are obviously lopsided. Virginia Tech simply has a much better defense. When there are no major mismatches, and there is a two-touchdown favorite, it's their game to lose. While any number of factors can derail a heavy favorite, none are more potent than turnovers.

If Virginia Tech is at least even with Tulsa in turnovers, sending Frank Beamer out on a win is highly likely.

Statistical Prediction

It is easy to overthink the factors the lead to the final score in a football game, especially if you buy the non-stop yelling matches on sports shows. The reality is that there is a certain amount of talent on the field for both teams and a certain amount of coaching, and then a whole bunch of luck. Don't overthink storylines about it being Frank Beamer's last game: the players already put everything on the line every week because he is such a great coach. Ultimately, the Hokies should win this easily, but enough bad luck to sink a favorite this strong happens every week during the season.

Virginia Tech 37, Tulsa 24

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.