The Matrix 2.1: A Mid-Season Review of Buzzketball

Analyzing the Hokies' roster across five categories.

[Mark Umansky]

Year Two of Buzzketball means Version(s) 2.x of The Matrix, my deep dive into the rebirth and evolution of the Virginia Tech men's basketball program. For those of you who are new to The Matrix — or wish to brush up on the methodology and the five categories — review last season's inaugural post.

A quick reminder: The 5 categories are the basis for the composite score, which provides an overview of how Tech's players shake out across the board. It doesn't necessarily yield a best-to-worst rank, because the categories don't fairly reflect that. Some categories skew toward bench players who can give maximum effort over a brief period of time. Others require significant minutes to establish themselves in certain roles.

In the end, the goal is to chart and discuss the development of the team. If there is any indication as to how significant the changes were during Buzz's first season in Blacksburg, look no further than Christian Beyer. When The Matrix 1.1 was released, Beyer had logged a grand total of four minutes for the Hokies. Four. By season's end, Beyer had established himself as a prototypical "Buzz Williams Guy", was ranked in the top five of two categories and finished No. 7 in the year end composite. Consider this notice to pencil in Greg Donlon as this year's Christian Beyer.

The Matrix 2.1


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The Matrix has expanded in Year Two, with thirteen different players having logged minutes through the first fifteen games. Only five players return from last year — Ahmed Hill does not appear, as he is still on the mend — and thanks to his offseason makeover, Satchel Pierce no longer stands out with his Sideshow Bob haircut. With a number of fresh faces mixed in with key returners, Buzz's rotation has been extremely fluid during the first half of the season. This has allowed the staff to evaluate different lineups in various scenarios, which should bode well for the team's development and ability to handle the grind of the ACC slate.

Alpha Male

Seth Allen is not only the team's leading scorer, but also the quickest to assert himself after entering the game. Sure, it helps that he has the ability to run the offense from the point. But his experience in ACC play, his willingness to shoot the ball and his aggressive style of play make him the best leader for this team right now.

Call me an old fuddy duddy, but one of the things that initially aggravated me about Allen was that he is a chirper. After watching him follow-up the talk with big play after big play, I quickly realized that's part of what makes him such a dynamic basketball player. It doesn't matter if he has drained back-to-back-to-back triples or been held scoreless; he's always quick to let opponents — and his teammates — know he's there and ready to ball. It has the potential to lift both himself and his team, regardless of the circumstances, which is an incredibly valuable attribute given the youth and humility of this year's squad.

On a team full of Satchel Pierces and Devin Wilsons, Tech needs a guy like Seth Allen to fill the role of refusing to back down. It has already proven to help out in ACC play, and you can imagine it will be a huge bonus when the Hokies visit more intimidating atmospheres.

Keep an Eye On: Zach LeDay. I feel strange writing this based on my rationale for ranking Allen No. 1. While Allen tends to express his emotions a bit more on the court, LeDay has proven to be a consistent force by letting his game speak for itself. I will readily admit that after watching film of LeDay's play at USF, I did not expect to see the player we've witnessed this season.

LeDay has been a huge addition in the frontcourt as both a stretch-four and a defensive paint presence. He has been aggressive driving to the hole and a force on the glass, something the Hokies sorely lacked last season after the departure of Joey Van Zegeren. To begin the year, LeDay quickly asserted himself as one of the team's go-to offensive options and has done little to relinquish that role. His heavy-legged mid and long-range set shots look awkward — but, dare I say, Larry Legend-esque? — but he has surprisingly good change-of-direction and adjusts his angle well in traffic. I'm extremely interested to see how he fares through ACC play; but if Monday night's win over UVa is any indication, LeDay may be counted on down the stretch to keep this young team in games.

Floor General

Justin Robinson may be a true freshman and he may not log as many minutes as other capable point guards, but he's quickly proven to be a heady player up top for the Hokies. Coming into this year, the scouting report on Robinson was that he was an adept ball handler that thrived penetrating the lane, showing above-average skills dishing and finishing at the rim.

Maybe I'm a little bullish on Robinson compared to others, but I've been incredibly impressed with his maturity thus far. Against WVU's high pressure full-court defense, Robinson was able to settle down the press break where more experienced ball handlers like Devin Wilson and Seth Allen struggled. Robinson leads the team in assists (46) and has found nifty ways to break down the defense off the dribble to open things up for his teammates. At the same time, he continues to have his freshman moments, making errant passes and mishandling the basketball (his 22 turnovers per 100 possessions is...less than stellar, but understandable).

As both this season and Justin's career progress, I'm going to be looking at how his midrange game develops to go along with his strong dribble-drive. In order to avoid being another limited point for the Hokies — in the Devin Wilson/Hank Thorns mold — it will be extremely important for him to add that shooting touch to his game to keep defenses honest.

Keep an Eye On: Justin Bibbs. No really. Though he's hardly this team's elder statesman, he entered the 2015-16 season as this team's No. 1 or No. 2 player, depending on who you ask. Coming off a freshman season that saw guys like Bibbs and Wilson playing the 3 and 4 spots, it has been a welcome sight to see both operating up top with the ball in their hands. Though the most noticeable improvement in Bibbs' game has been his lethal shooting from distance, he has also looked a lot more confident and comfortable bringing the ball up court and dictating the offense, when called upon. Though I doubt we will see him vault to the top of the category rankings by season's end, his continued development running the offense makes Buzz's system even more interchangeable while adding another facet to Bibbs' game.

Rim Protector

Zach LeDay heads this category, and for obvious reasons. On a team sorely lacking in multi-dimensional post threats, LeDay stands out because of his athleticism and willingness to attack the boards on both ends of the floor. Buzz's confidence in LeDay to anchor the Hokies' frontcourt is clear when you consider he has logged 154 more minutes than the next closest big (Kerry Blackshear). Has this wildly swung LeDay's statistical advantage in his favor when compared to his teammates? Absolutely.

The fact that he is on the court more than any other post player backs up his per game numbers, where he leads the team with 9.5 boards and 1.5 blocks per contest. But if we look a bit deeper and remove Greg Donlon's out-of-whack stats (he has only logged 6 minutes thus far), LeDay leads the Hokies with 12.9 rebounds per 40 minutes and is second behind Johnny Hamilton (who has played a quarter of LeDay's minutes) with 2 blocks per 40 minutes. LeDay's 61 offensive boards are tops in the ACC, and he ranks 3rd in the conference in total rebounds and 9th in blocks per game. Not too shabby for a 6-7 stretch four forced to man-up on bigger and stronger true post players.

Keep an Eye On: Kerry Blackshear Jr. He has had an up-and-down season thus far, looking deft and skillful one week and then slow and hobbled the next. One thing is for certain: Blackshear has the makings of a longterm solution in the post. Considering his youth and lack of major college strength, Blackshear has performed well against a lot of talented bigs. He plays with a high motor, shows a willingness to body-up on the nearest defender and fight for position, and he goes up hard for the basketball.

Sounds exactly like what you would expect from an ideal post player, right? Well the truth is, Blacksburg has been devoid of that type of defensive and offensive threat for some time (with the exception of a brief stretch from JVZ). We've generally experienced a mish mash of post specialists, who are either bangers down low and offensive liabilities or tweeners who get abused on the block. Halfway through his freshman season, Blackshear is already posting numbers similar to what guys like Victor Davila, C.J. Barksdale and Cadarian Raines were posting as upperclassmen, and his present skill set is considerably more diverse than theirs ever was.

Lock-down Defender

So here's the thing about this year's team: I'm not entirely sold that there are one or two guys that stand above the rest as lock-down, on-ball defenders. Jalen Hudson has the size, athleticism and willingness to man-up on talented players, but he gets beat often on the perimeter and picks up silly fouls in the process. Chris Clarke plays with an extremely high motor and does a great job jumping passing lanes. But when you account for the number of incorrect reads he makes, it's hard not to feel like some of those steals are lucky. Devin Wilson, Seth Allen and Justin Robinson play with active hands and disrupt passing lanes, but I'm not sure I would feel confident with any of them guarding Xavier Rathan-Mayes in a crucial spot.

For now, this team plays its best basketball when they are employ sound, fundamental team defense. Against a Virginia team that led the nation with only 8.5 turnovers per game heading into Monday's Commonwealth Clash, the Hokies worked collectively to force 16 turnovers and fend off a late rally to knock off the No. 4 Wahoos.

Are the Hokies consistent in this area? No. But would I rather have a team that buys into their coach's philosophy and executes it as a group, similar to Jim Boeheim's vaunted 2-3 zone or Shaka Smart's Havoc pressure defense? Absolutely. We can let the season continue to play out and see if anyone truly emerges as a go-to defender. Until then, let's keep our fingers crossed the Hokies can maintain the pressure we've seen of late.

Energy Guy

Chris Clarke is the obvious energy guy, right? He is active on both ends, sprinting all over the floor; he attacks the glass; he has the leaping ability of a bigger Deron Washington; he has crazy dreads that make him look like Manimal-lite...I could go on and on.

Clarke's recent injury over the holidays was a big blow for the Hokies as they headed into ACC play. His size, quicks and ball handling ability created matchup issues for opposing lineups, forcing smaller threes or bigger (and slower) fours to guard him on the offensive end. Against ACC foes with more balanced lineups, Clarke had an opportunity to create a bit of an athleticism advantage for an undersized Hokies team.

Similar to Deron Washington's impact, Clarke has the ability to energize his teammates and/or the crowd through his play. He's impossible to miss on the floor and fun as hell to watch. There's a part of me that feels Clarke is destined to man the top spot on the Energy Guy list for the duration of his time in Blacksburg. But then again, I could be open to four more Clarkes of varying sizes to build a starting five...

Keep an Eye On: Seth Allen. I have already established that Allen likes to let opponents know he's in the game, and that's a hard trait to ignore when ranking who gives teammates a bigger shot in the arm. Allen narrowly trails LeDay in scoring (14.6 to 14.5 ppg) despite starting only 5 of 15 games, but logs the third most minutes per game. He scores in bursts, is aggressive from baseline-to-baseline, and likes to have the ball in his hands when the Hokies are facing a run.

He strikes me as the type of guy that you detest unless he's playing for your team. Sure, he can run hot and cold. But he's a rich man's Adam Smith, providing the same clutch shooting ability with a stronger passing, driving and defensive game. As the schedule gets tougher, and Tech's margin for error gets finer, the Hokies knowing they got that guy on the roster is a huge bonus.

Comments

I love the scale of Happy Buzz to Angry Buzz on the left of the chart.

I found TKP after two rails from TOTS then walking back to my apartment and re-watching the 2012 Sugar Bowl. I woke up the next day with this username.

Which one's Happy and which one's Angry? I honestly think you could switch the two pictures every Matrix post and no one would be the wiser.

Great analysis and read, good way to start the morning off!

Fire Whit.

I really look forward to a (next year) lineup with a stronger Kerry Blackshear, better-shooting Justin Robinson, and healthy Ahmed Hill and Chris Clarke. Throw in Bibbs and Hudson and phew.... that is an athletic, fast, fun to watch team

I am really high on Buzzquetball right now, if Fuente can turn around the football team this fast then Whit will have cemented his legacy!

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

If Whit really wants to cement his legacy, he'll get us a few of these.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

LeDay has been a huge addition in the frontcourt as both a stretch-four and a defensive paint presence

Despite the UVa game, calling LeDay a "strech 4" is....a bit of a strech

Very good picture of the team so far, my only point of disagreement is with Bibbs in the floor general category. I would put him down two spots just ahead of Leday. Bibbs seems too content to play his role rather than be a floor leader. Bibbs plays well and is always a positive on the floor and plays with great consistency, but I don't get that leadership vibe from him.

It would also be interesting to have a category for clutch player, as in who is most likely to get the play drawn up for them at the end of the game. Maybe with Buzz this would be worthless across a season and more an indication of the game. I see it as and indication of who Buzz has offensive confidence in.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

Good analysis, but bottom line is WE BEAT #4 UVA!

Don't know why this isn't getting more attention on here. Awesome write up and the graphics are great!

I would disagree with the surprise second half riser. I don't know if you meant Donlon as a joke, but Shane Henry should be under serious consideration. Over the past few games he's seen more playing time and playing time in significant minutes, including big-time game-deciding defensive stops against NC State and UVA. Donlon is a true walk-on, he won't play anything but garbage time, whereas Beyer was used to supplement a depleted roster.

I don't think your analysis of Robinson is over the top. I think you may even be underestimating his potential for his college career. Here's over the top: I think he can be a Marcus Paige/Fred VanVleet/Frank Mason type of player by his senior year, meaning that he is in the drivers seat every game, he makes things happen, he's a gamechanger, he's dependable, and he makes everyone better. Every great college basketball team over the past 15 years or so has had a great point guard leading them, he may not be their best player, but he's their leader. Tyus Jones, Shabazz Napier, Peyton Siva, Nolan Smith, Kemba Walker. That's who I think he can be.

Outside it's night time, but inside it's LeDay

The Donlon reference was 100% an attempt at humor. And I agree that Robinson could end up somewhere along the lines of what you describe. I essentially said as much in our season preview. He's one of the best true point guards we've seen in Blacksburg in some time, but like most true freshman ball handlers, how well he develops his jumper will go a long way towards determining his ultimate ceiling.

Haha ok, that's my miss. I still hold my point that Henry could legitimately be that guy this year. He played even more last night, and played pretty well. If he gets rid of his penchant for going over the back, I really do think he could make some moves on the Matrix.

Outside it's night time, but inside it's LeDay

Only a couple areas that I am not sold on here.

I think your Alpha Male listing is pretty spot on, although I may have inserted Blackshear slightly higher but overall its fairly accurate of how this team has played.

Floor General, I think Bibbs is too high on this list, as I rarely see him do the smaller down and dirty things necessary of this kind of role at this level. I am not sure if its the concussion from last year that has him playing such a reserved presence on the court, except when draining threes, but its frustrating because last year he showed much of the same drive with the ball as a Clarke or Hill.

On rim protector, I definitely would have Bibbs below Wilson, primarily because Bibbs stays outside the lane so much that he is almost never in position to rebound or block/change shots. Wilson is able to stay with his man off the dribble better than Bibbs and isnt afraid to stick his nose into the lane on both ends of the court when needed. I am also not sure Pierce deserves to be that high in this category, considering his physical attributes, its disappointing the results we get on both ends in terms of the rim.

Your last two categories are about perfect.

Overall, I would say that Wilson and Blackshear should both be ahead of Henry. Henry shows flashes but Blackshear has shown most consistently and Wilson's presence has focused the Hokies in critical situations this season. Allen probably deserves to be ahead of TYRONE/Jalen because we have not had enough TYRONE to put him ahead of Allen.

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999

Thanks Rob, love the insight as always. I think your point about Wilson over Bibbs in the Rim Protector category is great. With both Bibbs and Pierce, I tended to overvalue length given how early we are in the season. When it comes to Wilson, I agree that he has more of a penchant for getting physical in the paint.

With regard to overall rankings, as I mentioned in the second paragraph, the composite ranking is literally an average ranking across the five major categories. I don't do any analysis as I put that list together — just math. Henry being ranked highly is a little nuts, but it speaks more to the categories skewing slightly to his strengths.

Guess with the few categories you are going to end up with a couple odd ball rankings. Maybe as this progresses we have a couple other categories to consider. Possibly 1) End to End 2) Mr. Methodical 3) Last but not Least 4) Cake vs Pie (We could speculate or put our reporters to real work here)

Rob Peterson
VTCC
Charlie/Hotel Company
Class of 1999