Buzzketball's Long, Complicated Road to the NIT

For most of its existence, success around Virginia Tech basketball has been synonymous with second-rate. In the last 40 years the program has been to seven NCAA Tournaments, none of which have garnered a modern Sweet 16 appearance. The Hokies won the NIT in 1995, in what is probably the biggest achievement in team history, and haven't won their way to Madison Square Garden since.

Tech's futility in the postseason hangs over Cassell Coliseum everywhere but the rafters. As a fan, it makes every big game seem more important because there's a chance it'll be the high point of the season. Remember rushing the floor after a win over top ranked Duke in 2011? You know, the win which was supposed to lock up a trip to the dance? Things would never get better than they were at that moment.

What about later on, in James Johnson's first year, when a rag-tag group of Hokies beat future NBA lottery pick Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State? People packed the house against the ranked Cowboys, and afterwards left the building with a content sense of hope. Tech would go on to lose 19 of their next 25.

This both has nothing and everything to do with Buzz Williams and the current iteration of basketball in Blacksburg. It all happened before Williams got there, so in theory he can write his own story, separate from the decades of tournament apprehension. And in less than 24 months, he seems to be doing just that.

In fact when he took the job, Buzz distanced he and his staff as far away from the past as possible —he didn't even watch tape of his players for fear of "pre-judging" them. It was an entirely new slate, detached from the squalor prior to his arrival.

And for the most part, it's been enough. Things were so bad, the promise of improvement initially satiated the browbeaten fanbase. In fact, it was enough until two weeks ago, when the prospect of finishing above .500 turned into reality.

The idea of games in late March is intoxicating, especially for die-hards who haven't seen much (if any) of the postseason. And in places like Blacksburg, the allure can often exponentially accelerate expectations.

It didn't matter Seth Greenberg's Duke slayers had a questionable resume, the win meant dancing was a definite. And so what if JJ's unit was woefully under-skilled, a 6-0 start in November carried spring time conversations. And when each hit the end of the line, discontent grew at what were predictable outcomes.

While it's fun to watch this year's team's progression on a given night, fans immediately turned their focus to the NIT once it came into play. This advancement in projection is problematic, however. Williams' squad is not much different than the one playing at the beginning of 2016, but since tournament opportunities are now on the table will it feel like a disappointment if they don't get there?

Falling short is not an improbable outcome. Tech is hanging onto bracket-filled dreams by a hair, and their path to reach them is complex. And though it's a great goal to have, two huge problems are stacked between Tech and a date in the NIT, both of which will be tricky to avoid.

Problem 1: Tech's Path To Get There

Buzzketball's resurrection has been an incredible feat to watch, especially after they seemed dead in the water in mid-January. Between wins on the road over teams they're supposed to beat and pulling off back-to-back home victories they've placed themselves firmly in the conversation.

Naturally, their wins put them in the position they are now. But unfortunately, they also gave Tech more competition in a crowded club of second-tier programs. They knocked once surging Clemson off Joe Lunardi's bubble, and in beating Florida State they sunk any remaining chance the Seminoles had to sneak in.

So by succeeding, the Hokies have also enlarged the pool of direct competitors for the selection committee to choose after the NCAA's done. And while it seems obvious to conclude — "Tech beat both of those teams, they should be in before either of them" — you're severely underestimating college athletics' ability to muck up an issue.

As of this writing, most projections have Williams and company barely making it into the NIT (do you know how sad your life is when you Google 'NIT Bracketology' every hour for updated projections?). But also consider Clemson, Florida State and the surprisingly RPI-inflated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets all seem solidly in, meaning if someone from the ACC were to get cut, the Hokies would fall out.

To make matters even more complicated, the two conference teams with work left to do in order to make the Big Dance are Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Tech hosts the Panthers on Wednesday, and their probable matchup in the first game of the ACC Tournament? Jim Boeheim and the Orange.

Though there's a good chance each foe will find themselves on the inside, there's a nightmare scenario in play (especially against Syracuse). A loss to Virginia Tech could knock 'Cuse out, which would then make them another competitor looking for a spot elsewhere. Since Syracuse has both a better record and RPI, they'd be in over the Hokies, meaning Tech could hypothetically contribute to their own undoing.

It's messy, especially for a group in the back end of the field. And since Tech's hanging on by a thread, another body in the pool may cause a big enough splash to dash the Hokies' chances.

Problem 2: Field Selection

So why can't every NIT qualifier from the ACC get in? You'd think they'd like to have as many big name programs as possible, right?

Well as much as ESPN would like it, there are rules in place to often override the feeling of TV executives. Everyone who wins their regular season conference title, but not the tournament, is in automatically. For instance, William and Mary finished first in the CAA in 2015, but lost to Northeastern in the CAA tournament final. As a result, they got bumped from NCAA to NIT.

In contrast, FSU's 2014-15 campaign ended 17-16, good for a ninth place finish and a loss to No. 3 Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals. In many cases, a resume like FSU's is rewarded with a potential path to New York. However, last year 12 small conference champs all fell short of the final trophy and were bumped to a NIT auto-bid. The 'Noles lost their spot.

The last five years have seen an average of 12 small schools cash in their bid, the number always falling between 10 and 14. If you're Virginia Tech, the difference between 10 programs auto-qualifying and 13 or 14 probably determines your bid. And in a season as insane as this has been, I wouldn't count on conference tournaments staying status quo.

So what do they do?

If Williams can scrounge up two wins out of Tech's next three games, they'd be a near lock. But the end of the schedule isn't as soft as the last week, as Tech hosts aforementioned Pitt, and Miami. Considering the type of ball Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan are playing in South Beach, beating the Hurricanes is a tough sell, so the contest against the Panthers becomes even more important.

Jamie Dixon's guys slammed the Hokies by 19 when they traveled to Pittsburgh more than a month ago. Add to the fact they're coming off an impressive beat down of Duke on Sunday, and the odds look long for Tech.

However it's not an impossible task. Buzz's bunch turned it over 20 times the first meeting, and seemed ill-prepared when Pitt role player Sheldon Jeter drained every mid-range jumper he could see. The Panthers aren't a great matchup, they thrive on the offensive glass and quick ball movement, both of which killed the Hokies in January, but some things trend in the home team's favor.

Zach LeDay is a different player in Cassell (averaging 17 points and 6 rebounds against ACC opponents), and Justin Robinson was a near non-entity before his blossomed over the last five games. If Robinson, Seth Allen and Justin Bibbs can attack from the perimeter they can keep it close.

Also not to be overlooked, Pitt's win over the Blue Devils could potentially give this let-down game potential. They wouldn't be the first squad to follow up an impressive victory with a head scratching defeat, and it's not like the Panthers have been a beacon of consistency.

In order to solidify their standing moving forward, the Hokies must first start with a good outing Wednesday night. They can't worry about how a result impacts their postseason odds, or how many W's gets them in, they just need to play. And Buzz will surely have them ready to fight like underdogs when they hit the court, and that mentality may be just what his Hokies need to keep playing in March.