Bill Connelly likes the Hokies' chances for a nine win 2016
He's one of the most insightful writers out there when it comes to college football. As part of his countdown of each team, he's delved deep into the advanced analytics for each team out there.
Admittedly, he whiffed on VT's projection last year, as the defense hemorrhaged yards to mobile QBs and deep passes. He's probably overconfident on the resurgence of our DBU, as we're in transition from Torrian Gray (pour one out).
Moreover, I wished he'd devoted more analysis to our line play to justify his balmy predictions. Particularly, one aspect of his statistics that stood out to me was the way that our line play regressed on passing downs. Given the talents that we had on the line last year, the gameplan seemed to have neutralized our pass rushing ability on passing downs. Does anyone remember more specifics on the way that we shifted in and out of our Bear or 48 fronts on passing downs?
That said, his breakdown on Fuente's typical offensive strategy were quite interesting. While I tend to be allergic to offensive systems without a system (especially after Loeffler), the flexibility to adjust ones' system to the offensive assets available could result in a much more smooth transition. I'd be interested in seeing how he utilizes the previous experience of the wideouts with passing triangles / rub routes vs. moving to a system emphasizing wideout isolation.
Anyone else have some neat tidbits from the stats in the article?
Comments
Marshawn Williams TB 5'11, 243
Marshawn!!!??? Don't do this to me, brotein shake.
Leg for your use of brotien shake
DBU was around long before Torrian Gray and it will continue to stay around because Buds defense philosophy is what creates great DBs not the DB coach solely. People forget we produced great corners before Torrian was here.
while I agree, I am surprised there is not more controversy
seems Gray brought a little less swagger over time to the position ... FBFW
looking forward to a little "athletic arrogance"... isn't that the term they used for DHall...ok... there goes the controversy!
Last guy who had that at DB was Exum IMO. I loved his attitude...if only he didn't have a penchant for pick up basketball :'(
Torian PLAYED for DBU
Let's not forget who Mitchell helped produce at WVU: Karl Joseph. Reminds me A LOT of Kam Chancellor.
Oh, lol, no. No, no. It's not even a fair comparison. Mitchell might be alright (now that he's gone through a stringent background and decontamination process). But Chancellor>Joseph infinity. This shouldn't even be mentioned.
Joseph was talked about the same way in college as Chancellor was before he tore his ACL. As much as I hate to admit it because he was a WVU player, he's up there.
didn't Mitchell only coach CBs at WVU? Same role he is here.
I've been looking forward to this one, he does a really good job mixing hard data with some subjective analysis, it's been nice getting such insight on a lot of teams I know very little about.
I think his optimism for the line comes from his optimism for the defensive backs. While our secondary struggled, as he said, the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores. If you project that people like Edmunds, Mook, and Adonis continue to improve, and pair that with the fact that Bud is typically a lock to put up top-10 passing defenses, I could see us taking a step up, which will be a huge boon to the defensive line; 1) because better coverage leads to qbs holding the ball and taking sacks and 2) because a more experienced backfield allows us to mix in different coverage and disguise blitzes, Foster's specialty which was neutralized by youth last year.
I like that he seems all in for 2017, I can get behind that. I also strongly agree that we're likely a 7-5 team this year with a 9-3 ceiling if we get excellent quarterback play.
Remember we are in the coastal I wouldnt be shocked by 6 wins or 10 wins. This division can turn on a dime. All it needs is for 1 team to significantly over achieve IE UNC last year and GT the year before
"I wouldnt be shocked by 6 wins or 10 wins."
neither would I. my o/u for VT is 8.5
I do think the running game will be good this year and our run-pass ratio should be about 3:2 . I'm also anxious to see some RPO...I wasn't there...did they run it even once in the spring game?
I also think Fu will do a better job of making opponents defend the field. In the passing game, I think we'll see a lot of Phillips, Carroll, and McClease underneath. Even if down-field accuracy is an issue for the QB's, opponents can't afford to let Ford and Hodges get over the top.
Less all-or-nothing on D would also be nice and I think we'll get it.
Hmm, I'll take the under on that. I would be ecstatic for 8 wins. Anything more seems a bit too optimistic for me and our schedule.
it is probably a little too optimistic (maybe 8) but the only thing I see not as good or better than last year is the punter.
The punter, DE is slightly down without Dadi, and the schedule, but the big ? Is at QB. If QB is better we will be much better. If not, should be a wash with others getting better, and we will again have close games with teams we should beat, like UNC and Duke.
The season does pretty much ride on QB play. Hope Fu has a couple that can run a legit read option.
Just because you "should" beat teams doesn't mean it is safe to predict we will win. I've just gotten used to predicting at least two frustrating losses each year. These last few years have scarred me.
I agree that the more mature defensive backs will give Foster the ability to rely more on single coverage islands or playing safeties closer to the LoS.
That said, I think the arguments against youth work against us when it comes to the DLine. Maddy and Dadi may have had middling years last year, but it's difficult to assume that our admittedly talented underclassmen can step into those immediately.
Case A: Houshoun Gaines, who has made a beeline for Fuente's doghouse. (for an action that should be legal, rabble rabble, can you tell im salty)
Granted, Ken Ekanem and Woody Baron really stepped into their roles during the meat of the ACC schedule last year. With their help, our line isn't THAT young, so hopefully the injury bug stays away and he can make the most of the schematic flexibility awarded by his more experienced free safeties.
9 wins doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. I'm not gonna be too disappointed if we don't win 9, but this year has a lot of unknowns that make it very hard to predict. If our offense is significantly improved, we should expect to stop losing to the teams we shouldn't ever lose to. If the defense is a little better, we should win more of the toss up games as well. Too early to tell obviously, but not a lot of reason to be too negative about this year's team in the preseason.
This guy knows more about football statistics
Than anyone I''ve ever seen. Glad to see a possible up side of 9 wins. Let's go hokies, let's statistics the shit out of them.
I believe you meant:
That too, being a school with heavy engineering.
:--)
This is my favorite fucking t-shirt. I wish I could wear it to work without feeling guilty about the swear on it... and yes, I could have bought a censored version, but where's the fun in that?
where were you able to find a shirt with a GIF on it? That would be frickin' awesome!!!
China
If this were true it would be my entire wardrobe
5 I'll be pretty upset
6 is disappointing
7 is good
8 or above is great, especially if we pick off ND or Tenn
This seems to be the rational consensus. Hope all fans are this level headed.
I don't know if I'd be upset with 5 wins. Not happy, but I think there has to be some allowance for first year coaching changes.
5 wins and the end of the bowl streak? I would be quite unhappy with that, regardless of coaching changes. Fuente has a pretty well stocked cupboard and I'm not reducing expectations down to UVA levels.
I understand and somewhat agree on the end of the bowl streak, but it's not the end of the world. If it takes losing 7 games in year 1 for Fuente to really drive home his scheme, then I'm okay with that. Again, not happy, but okay.
I dunno...I would have expected Beamer and co. to get to 6 wins if they were still around for 2016, and I consider Fuente an upgrade, even in his first year. After all, the core of the team is largely the same.
I agree with Fuente & co being an offensive upgrade, but I still think when you have all but ~2 starters returning on offense that have to learn a new system/scheme, even if it is inherently simpler than Loefflers mad scientist playbook, they need some time to get it to gel in game situations. All the practice in the world doesn't mean the plays will be run correctly in a game and I think that will be our learning curve this year.
If what I've read about Fuente is correct, he will tailor the offense to the pieces we have in place. With a much quicker tempo in practice and fewer formations I feel like practice time on O will be much more productive than it was under Loeffler. I think we will see it blossom a bit faster.
In my opinion he has a good 1-2 start to the season. He has Liberty where he can tune up some basics and then he has a game that many predict we will lose to give him a good idea of how the team performs against top competition.
I've been going back and forth but I agree with the 8 win thoughts. With the ACC being a crap shoot I can see +/-2 wins and still be in the expected performance range.
I agree with you that 8 wins is around where I can see this team. Heck I can see 11 or 12 if things get clocking early. But I'm trying to temper my expectations. I hope we win it all and I can come back here and celebrate. But if we only win 5 I won't cast aspersions on Fuente. It can take a while to get this thing going. Different situation, but it took him until year 3 at Memphis to get it going. I know our cupboard isn't bare, but it might not be exactly what we need either (especially at RB where we have a clear, in my mind, #1 and a lot of questions following after).
So, in essence, I'm noit disagreeing, I just dont want to say I'll be upset if we only win 5 games in Fuente's first year while he's, not rebuilding, but building for the future
I see where you are coming from, but I think 5 is low. I completely agree that expectations need to be tempered but I think Frank and Lefty could pull 6 wins out of this team this year.
I also think we will be better than expected at RB. With Evans or Motley I think the QB run game will be a big part of the offense which will help the RBs look better.
FUENTE'S OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE 60 PPG AND FOSTER'S DEFENSE IS GOING TO SHUT TEAMS DOWN ALL YEAR. WE MAY NOT GIVE UP 60 POINTS ALL SEASON!!!! 15-0 BABY!!!!!!!!!
I like that prediction. Let's do that one.
...you forgot to add "PAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWL" at the end.
This guy, he gets it.
I'll have what he's drinking please.
I think you are misunderstanding. If he wants to implement an entirely new system and manner of football, then he should be able to. If they means that the team we put on the field isn't as good as if we just played to what they already know then so be it. Is rather him instill his brand of football so that the foundation and ethic is there for the future. Year 1 doesn't matter.
Sometimes I think people are getting too caught up in the whole "system" aspect of football. I believe the talent we have on the team can handle any new "system" that they are taught, because fundamentally, it's still throw the ball, catch the ball, run the ball. I don't think Fuente's foundation and ethic is all that different from what Beamer had. And considering that Fuente's approach seems to be build a system around the available talent (as opposed to Lefty's Rube Goldberg Machine/try to confuse the hell out of the other team before the snap system), I think the players are going to be okay on picking up the new style.
True, but the big thing with new systems/schemes is adjustment from the offensive line. How quick will they adjust? How will they perform once adjusted? And, a VT specific, with this being our 4 millionth coach for OL in the last 4 years, are they playing like he wants them to play or like the old coach taught them? It takes a while to understand blocking schemes and play calling.
I'd be dissapointed still, but I understand you point, we're playing the long game. I also thinks he's smart enough to know that if he breaks the bowl streak to have one of the most disappointing regular seasons since 1992, his seat will be hot. It doesn't matter if its rational, I just think that missing the bowl game this upcoming season will make fans VERY unhappy in general.
His seat absolutely is not hot if he breaks the bowl streak. It means nothing. By placing more importance on getting a minimum 6 wins, we diminish the goal of our program. Sometimes you have to break something down in order to rebuild it stronger. And the way we have had things running for a while now would not get us a championship or even winning the ACC.
6 wins is mediocre. How much does he really have to break the system down in order to build it back up? VT has won championships on the backs of good defense, less 6 win seasons.
Are we gonna become one of those school that has no patience? Lets say he has a rough first season and we win 5 games. His seat is not got unless we are taking like 1 to2 wins.
His seat will not be hot after the first year unless there are off the field issues.
This team has more experienced talent than any of the last 3 seasons. Plus the injury bug was pretty bad the last 3 seasons. I think Beamer wins at least 8 games with this team/schedule and anything less than 8 wins is a disappointment IMO.
I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Do I think 8 wins is our ceiling? No. Do I think it's reasonable to expect 8 wins and anything less would be disappointing? No.
You're always going to have growing pains when you have coaching turnover. We have a huge Question Mark at the most important position on the field (remember when we all thought Lawson was going to be the next best thing since sliced bread? what's to say Evans is any different? We have to accept that fact that there is a very real possibility that Motley is the best QB on the roster right now).
I would be happy with 8 wins but I honestly think that would be overachieving for Fuente in his first year as HC. I'll be satisfied if we make it back to a bowl game. Anything better than 6 wins will make me happier.
Unlike Buzz Williams, Fuente didn't inherit a dumpster fire. I'll be disappointed if he takes a roster with decent talent and experience and is unable to meet what I believe are reasonable expectations for that roster. And vice versa.
We don't even have a QB yet, and we have no idea how good our starting QB is gonna be. That in itself says we shouldn't have high expectations. We aren't Bama, we can't just plug in a QB and not worry about it.
Depends on the supporting cast, doesn't it? The first year after Tyrod graduated, we had quality WRs in Coale and Boykin, a quality RB in David Wilson, and a brand new starting
TEQB named Logan Thomas. Result? We only lost to one team all season.we haven't had a qb for 4 years. Guy is supposed to be a qb guru he has talent to work with.
Paxton Lynch's first year wasn't all rainbows and gum drops either. It takes TIME to develop talent, especially at the QB position. I would not expect big things out of the QB in year one. That is a foolish expectation IMO
not expecting a first round pick. expecting something better than middle of the pack in terms of acc play. we also have more talent in terms of skill positions than any of the QBs we've had recently.
yeah you're completely missing the point. Paxton Lynch wouldn't have even touched "middle of the pack in terms of acc play" in his first year. You're foolish if you think Fuente is going to turn a first year starting QB into a super star during summer camp. Whoever wins the starting QB job is going to struggle in their first year. I expect to see improvement over the course of the year and by the end of the season we MIGHT have a middle of the pack caliber QB. But it's not going to happen over night.
A first year starting QB can be well above average to great if they are really talented. Also, Motley and Evans are older than Lynch was when he started with more experience so it's not exactly a 1 to 1 comparison. What you are describing is usually the case, but not always. If Jerod Evans is very accurate, it isn't ridiculous to assume above average QB play in a new system. For example, Chad Morris first year was also Tahj Boyd's first year as a starter, and he broke almost (I say this only for factual uncertainty) all of Clemson's QB records that year. He was a 4 star recruit, a R-So, but he was able to perform at a high level right away in a brand new system. This is also not a 1 to 1 comparison, but it is an example of getting great play from your first year QB.
edit: I respect your tempered expectations, my point is that it isn't outlandish for a first year QB to play well. I don't know how well Evans/Motley will play anymore than you do.
I wasn't trying to say it's outlandish to think that it can happen. I'm saying it's unrealistic to expect that. I would rather set my expectations at 6 wins and be pleasantly surprised with 8 wins as opposed to expecting 8 wins and getting my knickers in a twist when we only win 7.
I think you and I are on the same page. Yes a QB can come in and play well in his first year but that is certainly not the standard. We (think we) know what we have in Motley. Evans is an unknown entity. I think it's unrealistic to expect Tahj Boyd 2.0
That makes much more sense, I must have misread into your previous comments. I agree we are on the same page.
I am in the same boat, I think it's better to have mild expectations and outperform them, than to set the bar unrealistically high. I think I've said on here elsewhere that I (and really anyone) have a difficult time guessing how our season will go, so many variables, another 6 win season wouldn't surprise me, but neither would and 8-10 win season.
Either way, we can definitely all agree we are excited for a fresh infusion into Hokie football.
Total agreement
you can struggle and still be over middle of the pack in the ACC. if you haven't noticed there haven't been standout qbs aside from the top 2 teams lately. no one is calling/asking for a superstar in year 1. Just need someone who isn't going to turn the ball over 18+ times and can stretch the field from time to time.
Setting your expectations at 6 wins is a cop out to me so we don't have to question the hire. If frank could motivate this team to win 7 games a year over the last 4 (one 8 win season) then that should be the minimal expectation even with a slightly more difficult schedule. Talent is there on offense and that's where CJF earned his money.
when you look at our schedule and factor in all of the question marks we have I just don't see how you can see 8 sure wins without being a homer. The ACC has improved drastically over the last 7 years and there are lots of coaches with promising careers in the league right now.
As much as we like to rag on UVA and how weird Bronco Mendenhall is, he's still a proven coach with a good track record. Mark Richt is no slouch. Larry Fedora has turned UNC into a Coastal Champion. David Cutcliffe always has the Blue Devils punching above their weight. Pat Narduzzi has clearly done a good job with Pitt and I only expect them to improve. Paul Johnson's teams always play us tough. And that is just on our side of the division. Dino Babers has shown that he can turn a team into an offensive juggernaut fairly quickly and I don't really expect anything different from him at Syracuse. By the time we play them in the Carrier Dome they should be half-way competent offensively.
Our schedule consists of:
Liberty - FCS - most definitely should win
Tenn - SEC favored to win the East - loss
BC - ACC bottom dweller - this should be a win but they play good defense and it's early in the season. That has me concerned
ECU - AAC - this has been a tough out for us lately but I think we win this year since they inexplicably fired Ruffin
@ UNC - ACC 2015 Division winner - I honestly don't see how you can mark this as a sure win. We could easily lose this game
@ Syracuse - ACC should be improved - I think we can win this game but Dino Babers is the X-factor IMO
Miami - ACC have beaten us multiple times, have a good coach and a potential #1 draft pick at QB - I would be surprised if VT won this game TBH
@ Pitt - ACC with Connor returning - loss (we never win at Pitt) Narduzzi is a good coach, Connor is a man among boys
@ Duke - ACC well coached by Cutcliffe - I think we have more talent (marginally) and should be able to win this game but it'll be closer than the experts think
GT - ACC - I think we win this. Bud has PJ's number and if they get behind the ball early they struggle to come back and win
@ ND - Independent - loss. Well coached, deep and talented. Winning in Southbend is not a realistic expectation for VT this year. You're crazy or stupid if you think otherwise.
UVA - ACC instate rival with promising new coach - We've won 12 straight. You can look at this one of two ways. 1. They can't beat us. 2. The streak has to end sometime.
I have a much harder time figuring out which games we'll win than I do figuring out which ones we'll lose. That's not a pleasant place to be but that is our reality right now. 8 wins is an insane expectation for this team's floor. I don't honestly see how anybody would be upset with a 7 win season given our circumstances.
No win is a sure win. I think as VT fans we should be very aware of that even as sure as UVA seems to be. Two teams in the ACC have drastically improved over the last 7 years. The rest of the league? Up and down.
Thinking a big time coach should come in and lose more games than a coach who just didn't have the energy to do the job any more just seems apathetic to me. Especially when you didn't lose a ton from the previous year. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, I just think telling someone they are being unrealistic for expecting the status quo is a bit over the top. No one is seriously calling for this team to be a 10+ win team that I've seen.
Just curious the last few years how many games did you predict us to win prior to the season? Were you in the 10+ win every year camp that was so prevalent?
agree
First of all, Beamer is a legend. He may be old and tired but he's still a legend. Justin Fuente isn't a big time coach....yet. I think it's fair to temper expectations. He's still young (barely 40) and he hasn't done what the big time coaches have yet. (I consider big time coaches to be the likes of Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, etc.)
Secondly, we're not comparing apples-apples. This is a new season with a new schedule. I think our schedule is actually tougher this year than it was last year so you can't look at what Beamer did last year and make a direct comparison to what you expect for this year.
Yeah but we have to find a new QB. That is the most important piece and everyone seems to just assume Evans is going to come in and light it up. I don't know why. He was tied with Motley at the end of Spring so I think the most realistic expectation is to assume that we will get Motley-like QB play this year. Everyone seems to be expecting Kaaya-like QB play. That's insane to me.
I'm sorry, you said yourself that we have been a 6 or 7 win team over the last several years. I believe that is the definition of "status quo". I am not telling anyone to expect less than 6-7 wins. I think it's unrealistic to expect 8 which most certainly is NOT the status quo. (if you look at regular season, we have won 6 regular season games two years in a row. The status quo for this team is 6 wins. Not. 8.)
For the last 2 years I have consistently expected 8 wins. You can go find my comments if you don't believe me.
we haven't been a 6 win team in any season over the last 20 years. When I said big time coach for Fuente I mean he was regarded as a big time hire. We aren't replacing tyrod taylor or MV at qb we are replaying a transfer who as tough as he was just wasn't a threat at the qb position. He isn't coming into a tyrod situation or Logan thomas' 2nd year where he had no weapons. I'm not nearly as high on cam Phillips as most are, but he has Isaiah and he has bucky and while I don't think cam is a true #2 wr he's still a consistent 500 yard/season guy. He has a 1000 yard rb returning he has 4/5 OL returning. The QB is not going to be put into a situation where he's destined to fail.
you're just plain wrong on this. We have won 6 regular season games 2 years in a row. I'm only talking about regular season because that is the schedule we know we have.
I'm not saying that the QB is destined to fail. I don't think we have the supreme talent everyone seems to think we have at that position. This season's result will depend heavily on the play we get out of the QB position and frankly we just don't know what we're getting there. At this point I don't see how you can expect anything more than what we know we have in Motley.
3 of our last 4 years we have 7 win teams. Bowl games count towards your record. If you are saying we are going to win 6 games that insinuates we will go 6-6 in regular season play and lose our conference game, so no you are wrong.
Status quo is 7 wins + for VT for the last 20 years. Understand you don't want to predict if we will win/lose a bowl game, but 6 wins would not be status quo.
Definitely don't think we have great talent at the qb position, but I think we have qbs with better arm talent than Michael brewer which should be able to stretch the field.
If you're saying we go 8-5 as a floor thats more understandable than saying we absolutely need to go 8-4 or better. But I'd say 6-6 is status quo for the last couple years because thats what we've scheduled and thus have control over.
The qbs might have great arm talent but that doesn't matter if they can't hit the broad side of the barn or lack pocket presence. I think the bigger difference is going to be if we commit to running them
I agree. I think we can have a very effective offense if we can establish the option running game with our mobile QBs. From what I've seen, Evans is extremely effective and selling his fakes and riding the mesh point with the hand offs. This was on display at the Spring Game, yet the QBs not being live put a damper on its effectiveness somewhat. I think this will be a critical facet of the offense to take pressure off of the passing game and set up big play action passing opportunities. It's good to have at least two experienced guys in Evans and Motley if we are going to rely heavily on the QB in the run game.
Find me a single sports writer making season long win/loss predictions that's including a bowl game outside of the CFP.
Every one that I see makes predictions based on a 12 game season.
I'm sure you can find at least one. There has to be someone out there who will tweak the rules to fit their narrative.
College football win totals include bowl games, that's the standard that's been used forever. We of all fanbases should know that, considering how much we hang our hat on 2 decades of winning records and a long 10-game win streak. If you want to only count the regular season, you say x-regular season wins.
You mean like saying it's unrealistic to think we'll improve significantly in year 1 under Fuente, but it's realistic to think Syracuse and Babers will do the same with less talent?
I don't think it's unrealistic to think we'll improve on offense. I think with our schedule it's unfair to expect 8 (regular season) wins. We have to play defense too, y'know. I think we'll beat Syracuse, I just said that their offense will be half-way competent by October. I think ours will be too. That doesn't change the fact that I think 6 wins is a reasonable expectation for our team this year. I'm not saying that Dino Babers is going to have an 8-win-ceiling-expectation.
This whole discussion has gone on too long. I think it's unfair to get upset if/when this team loses more than 4 games this year. A coach should be allowed at least 3 years in college football. Frank Beamer never would have made it in today's football climate. He's said as much himself. People are so damn impatient these days and they want results immediately. It's unfair, IMO, to expect results immediately.
I'm cautiously optimistic about this season. I honestly have no idea where we'll end up. My expectation is that we should be able to win 6 games and make a bowl game. I could see us winning as many as 8 or 9. I could also see us losing as many as 7. Our schedule looks tough and we have no idea what our offense is going to look like. We don't even know who our QB is going to be!!! And we have to play defense too! Everyone seems to forget that. Bud Foster is undoubtedly one of the best DCs in the college football industry but he doesn't go into this season without challenges. Our defense is thin at several positions and relatively inexperienced at some positions. We're also switching from man to zone and we have new coaches coaching our defensive backfield. Changes like that rarely occur without any hiccups. I think it's fair to expect some growing pains defensively too.
Now we are bringing sports writers into the discussion? We want to start removing FCS teams from our win totals too? Regardless if you or MEhokie agree/disagree we've won 7 games 3 of the past 4 years and 8 the other year. Winning less than what Frank did imo would be a disappointment. You are entitled to your opinions but calling others unrealistic is a joke.
Here is a list of our previous seasons. Weird that they include these magical bowl games:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Virginia_Tech_Hokies_football_seasons
All I'm saying is that season predictions are based on the 12 regular season games. For those purposes, three of the last four seasons are 6 win seasons. That is the year to year metric that we use. 6 wins is the baseline. If we only win 5 games, we've gone backward. If we win 7 or more games prior to December, then we have improved over the last two seasons. If we go 6-6 and lose the bowl game...well, there's just too many variables going on at that point.
Why do you say this? When people look back on seasons, we call them x-win seasons including the bowl game. I've never heard people refer back to seasons with only the regular season win totals. So why would we look forward differently? I've never heard of people doing it that way, and it doesn't make a lot of sense. If I'm making a prediction it's a prediction of how the season/year is going to go, and that season/year includes the bowl game.
Also, I want to congratulate everyone on extending an argument this long only to find the main difference of opinion is one of semantics.
Because every prediction I've seen here is 5-7, 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, etc. Add those up, and it's 12. And every prediction I've seen from a sports writer about any team that is counting wins is based on a 12 game season.
Yeah, that's a regular season prediction. But when you predict for the whole year, it's out of all the games you've played. If I say we'll win 8 games, it doesn't really matter how we get to 8 games, just that we get there.
Especially when the "unrealistic" expectation is to win eight whole games. You've got us losing 1/3 of our games and somehow you're being unrealistic? Unlikely, maybe. But there's nothing unrealistic about winning 8 regular season games.
Literally all of them? When you talk about how your season went, you count up all the wins, not just regular season. How do you think our 10-win season streak worked?
Don't count the bowl wins. There is no bowl game on our schedule. Six wins will get us a bowl game. Six wins will equal what we did in 2012, 2014, and 2015.
When people are making predictions for the upcoming season, they are basing it on a 12 game schedule. (Except, of course, the bold ones who see us in Tampa in January, going 15-0.)
True but VT didn't have an experienced QB going into the '14 season and after just 2 quarters of the '15 season...each with less experienced and deep rosters. And other than QB, the most important impact on success is offensive line experience. And VT returns a veteran offensive line with lots of snaps under their collective belt.
Short of catastrophic injuries, anything less than 8 wins will be disappointing.
offensive line has a lot of experience, sure, but they've been coached by, what, 3 different coaches in 4 years? And they were experienced last year too; they didn't exactly maul defensive lines.
Offense is also only half the equation. We have question marks at Linebacker (again), we've lost some experience from the DL, and the back end is being coached by new coaches. With the uncertainty of Facyson's health and the suspension of Alexander we're going to be pretty inexperienced/thin back there anyway. Going to a zone may help to mask some of those deficiencies but it's also a new scheme for them to learn and there are bound to be some mistakes along the way. I do think they will improve as the year progresses but I would be shocked if they came out dominating teams right away.
Offensively I am expecting us to improve over the course of the season but I just don't think we're going to come out and blow peoples' doors off out of the gates. It will depend a lot on QB play and right now that is a big question mark for us. I think it's silly to expect super-star production from that position. Evans and Motley were presumably on even footing coming out of the spring so I think the safest bet is to assume that our QB play will be on par with what we got out of Motley last season. Until we see otherwise I really don't see how you can expect much more.
Defensively I expect Foster to field a competent defense which shows improvement (barring injury) from week to week. That has been pretty much SOP for Foster and the LPD. I don't think we have the talent/experience to be elite defensively but I certainly expect Foster's unit to help keep us in some games.
When you put it all together I think it's just as easy to make an argument for a 5-7 season as it is for a 8-4 season. Expecting an 8 win season and being disappointed with anything less is just foolish. With new coaches, a brand new QB, questions on the DL and at LB, and new systems/schemes offensively and in the defensive backfield there are an awful lot of hurdles to get over in order to accomplish an 8 win campaign in 2016.
He didn't inherit a dumpster fire but I think decent experience is a strong description. There's currently no QB, a total of 4 skill position players that have proven production, and 4/5 on a line that was below average last season. We're replacing 3 starters on a defensive line that struggled last season. Linebackers are a question mark. The back end should be good again but will Fayscon be healthy? I think the potential is there for 8 wins but I'm not going to bet my house on it. Games against Tenn, ND, UNC, Pitt away from home are games we are sure under dogs in. We won't be big favorites over GT, Miami, Duke, or BC. Syracuse is installing an offense that took Bud's lunch money in the bowl game. I can look at the schedule and see anything from 5-7 to 9-3 and see how you could make a case for it. I personally think 6-6 and 7-5 are the two most likely outcomes but wouldn't criticize a 5-7 year if the breaks (i.e. horrible fumble luck, injuries, etc.) don't go our way
Nigel and woody have both started. nigel started the whole year maddy was out. Definitely agree with LBs being a question mark and I don't think the secondary will be very good, but how they look is largely dependent on how the DL performs anyways.
Don't forget 2 projected starters currently suspended
It's college football. Every team is replacing starters and has question marks. VT has more than some, but less than most going into this season.
This is a better, deeper roster overall to begin the season than any of the last 3 seasons. And that's before key injuries the last 3 seasons.
Anything less than 8 wins will be a disappointment in my book. But 8 or 9 wins will be very solid. It's a fine line.
I really think your expectations are unrealistic. VT may have fewer question marks than some teams but of those teams how many have first year head coaches? Of those, how many have question marks at the most important position?
It boggles my mind that people don't understand there will be growing pains when there is coaching turnover. It would take a herculean effort for Fuente to accomplish your lofty expectations in his first year. Yes, he might have more talent and experience to work with than he did at Memphis. And VT might have more talent and experience than VT has had in a while but, honestly, that's not saying much. Given all those nice things, he still has to install a new system and develop a new starting QB. All the experience in the world won't make that much of a difference if the QB can't perform adequately. I just don't see how 8 wins should be our floor.
To play devil's advocate with the coaching turnover = growing pains theory, Harbaugh inherited a really bad Michigan team and turned them into a 10-win squad last year. Yeah, they had the doors blown off of them by OSU (far more skill position talent and depth everywhere), but Harbaugh tightened up the defense and played to the strengths of the talent they had on offense, and look where they ended up. Not saying that Fuente will have the same effect as Harbaugh, but if we can at least have a semi-functional offense that can move the chains and score effectively, and we get an average Bud Foster defense out of this group, I think we have a shot to be very successful. We may get the doors blown off going against FSU or Clemson, but I think we could easily compete for the Coastal if we get the above out of this year's team.
I'll honestly be disappointed if our offense doesn't take a step forward this year. I mean, its been so, so bad for so long it almost has to take a step forward, and I'll seriously be concerned about the future under Fuente if we see it stagnate this year like we have since... hell since Tyrod.
If that happens, everything else should fall into place for us. I really want to see what happens if we have an offense that allows Bud to get creative with the defense, knowing if a gamble backfires, the offense can and will make up for it.
that Michigan team had an easier schedule than VT. And despite the fact Michigan was seriously under performing prior to Harbaugh they still recruited really well. It's Michigan, for cryin' out loud. I don't think Harbaugh at Michigan should be the litmus test for Fuente at VT.
Brady Hoke's one successful season at Michigan (2011) was with Rich Rod's recruits (yes, Danny Coale caught that ball, too). Recruiting stagnated significantly under Hoke. His first two classes were highly ranked, but mostly under performed. His last two saw a noticeable drop followed by a drastic drop off. The cupboard definitely wasn't bare when Harbaugh took over, but to say they still had loads of talent because it's Michigan isn't exactly true. Harbaugh really got every ounce out of that roster last year. We aren't exactly loaded with depth going into the season, but I also feel that the cupboard hasn't been left completely bare for Fuente in year one.
5 year recruiting average going into Harbaugh's first year was 18.5 per 247 composite with a #4 and a #6 class making up the majority of the upperclassmen. Ours is 28 (27.8 to be exact) and none higher than 21. So not exactly way more stocked but it seems like a lot of the highly ranked players we got from 2012-13 (basically the upperclassman from our highly ranked classes) aren't here anymore. Not familiar with Michigan's roster so no clue if it was similar for them. Not refuting your point either way, just thought it'd make for an interesting comparison
while you think his are unrealistic I think yours are setting the bar as low as possible. Plenty of college coaches come in and show improvement in year 1 and it's not like our teams lately have shown much fire. With a younger, more energetic HC leading the charge I don't think it's unrealistic at all to expect to win at least as many games as we've been accustomed to in the last 4 years.
I do agree it's mostly going to hinge on qb play, but with some of the talent we have at skill positions if CJF has to "dumb" down his offense somewhat to account for first year qb play I think that is what he will do and put our players in positions to make plays. He won't be bullish like loeffler and force a system on people who can't handle it and then blame the players every game for not executing what he knew they weren't able to execute.
show me a list of college coaches who have shown improvement in year 1. How many of those coaches came in and took over teams coached by a legend? How many of those coaches took over a team which hadn't had a losing record in over 20 years? Justin Fuente's situation is different from all others. Improvement is on a curve. It's a whole lot easier to turn a 3 win team into a 6 win team than it is to turn a 6 win team into an 8 win team. Especially when you're in a competitive league which is also improving at the same time.
Our schedule is not soft this year. With the improvement of the ACC coupled with our OOC schedule we don't have as many "sure wins" as we're used to having. No body laughs at Duke anymore. Miami has a super star QB. Pitt has a stud RB and a stout defense. UNC is an offensive machine.
I really don't think expecting 6 wins is setting the bar too low for a first year coach with the schedule we have. I honestly think if Beamer and Loeffler were still on the sidelines in 2016 it would be the first time in over 20 years that we miss a bowl game. Beamer retired at exactly the right time. I just don't think this team would manage more than 4 or 5 wins with the offense we had and the question marks we're going into this season with. I'm expecting our offense to improve this year. I think Justin breathes fresh air into the program and I sense that there is more excitement around VT football than there has been in a while. I still believe that making a bowl game this year is going to be quite the accomplishment for him. Without Fuente, I truly believe we'd be home for the holidays by season's end.
I think the grand irony of this argument is that at the end of the day, the difference between 6, 7, and 8 wins will likely be how many 1 score games we win. And as much as that has to do with grit and smart playing/coaching, it's also a lot of luck and regression to the mean. So in a very real sense, you're both right, you're just arguing how many times we'll flip a tails instead of a head (I always call tails, adjust to your own predilections).
First, there is no way this team is as talented as 2013's team was going in. That defense was stuffed with elite talent in the secondary, an NFL prospect at QB, and experienced upperclassman all over the depth chart with some promising sophomores sprinkled in.
This is a roster that with all of its experience has gone 7-6 the last two seasons. Thats facing a more challenging schedule than any of those teams. That plays 4 of its toughest 5 games on the road with the one at home coming against a QB some people think could go #1 overall in the draft. The team could very well be a better team and still go 6-6 or 7-5 again just as a result of the schedule
But we wouldn't have our JUCO QB if the Beems was still here so I doubt 6 wins would be easy with the other QBs we have.
Dwayne Lawson was supposed to be a super-star and he's shown relatively little since arriving. In the same respect Evans is supposed to be this supremely talented QB but we just haven't seen it yet. He and Motley were basically on even footing by the end of Spring Practice. I think it's silly to assume that we have anything better than Motley (who we had last year and would still have if Beamer were still coaching) until we see otherwise. I hope that Evans is better than what we know but I'm not holding my breath. If your argument is that Evans is the difference between 5 wins and 8 I think you're misguided.
I know he went against 2nd and 3rd string in the Spring Game, but Jackson looked to be the best QB on that day to me then...
I'd take 0-12 this year if it guaranteed us 15-0 next year.
5 I'll be pretty upset
6 is disappointing
7 is meh
8 is good
9 or above is great, especially if we pick off ND or Tenn
I'm expecting 7 or 8. Hoping for 15
Yeah, and hurry the heck up ... we only have a limited number of years left. No pressure though.
I expect nothing less than 15-0.
However, if things turn out other than what I was expecting, that's ok too. I just want to eat a Mike's burger and yell a lot on third downs.
I expect nothing less than 15-0.
Where is that "I like the way you think" gif?
Ha!
"I like the way you think...I'm going to keep my eye on you".
Sam Kinnison with Rodney Dangerfield in "Back to School", I think. This makes me remember that I saw Sam live at the Bayou in DC 30 years ago. Rodney, Sam, and maybe the Bayou?....all gone....(sigh)...RIP.
The Bayou was legendary in the 70's, 80's, and even the 90's. Face Dancer and Cherry Smash in the 70's, Southside Johnny...lots of great bands!
I would be disappointed if we ended the bowl streak.
I would be satisfied with eight wins.
I would be pleasantly satisfied, yet not surprised, if we win the ACC Coastal.
I would be ecstatic if we beat Clemson/FSU to win the ACC.
None of these things would surprise me.
But, how would you feel if we beat NCST to win the ACC?
That sounds like a recipe for a 2007 season in college football all over again, and I'm totally up for that kind of madness again.
We missed Walker on the d line last year IMO. Within the coastal, I don't know any teams that have multiple known offensive threats. I think we will be much better than last year if we aren't a mash unit.
Fuente us known for his offense. He has 3-4 all Acc players on that side of the ball. I expect him to only drop one Coastal game and I think it will be Miami.
With Foster's defense and Fuente's offense , 10 wins is very possible if everyone stays healthy.
I will be disappointed with 7 Ws or less.
I will be happy with 8-9 Ws.
I will be ecstatic joygasm if it's 10+
I'm surprised his model gives us a slightly better chance of beating miami than Syracuse. I know Syracuse is away and Miami is at home and his Syracuse preview was fairly positive, but I'd flip that around.
Although I guess I did have a nightmare about losing to another not so great Atlantic team, so maybe anything is possible.
plus, dino babers will be able to get Syracuse offense-ing pretty quickly. I think by year's end Cuse will be a legitimate threat offensively
I do agree that Babers will get that offense going. He was a great hire for putting up points and getting people (and recruits) excited about Syracuse football. But I do wonder if the right talent is there for a big year one step forward.
I'm really looking forward to the synergy between Fu and Foster. I think each is a fantastic beta test for the other.
Looking back at last season, even with all the drama and emotions, it's fair to say that we won the games we were supposed to and lost the games we were supposed to:
Sorry for the formatting, but our wins vs Furman, Purdue, NC State, BC, GT uva, and Tulsa were expected.
Our losses against tOSU, ECU (it hurts to say that), Pitt (monkey on our back), UM, and crazy close games vs good Duke and UNCheat teams.
And you could argue a bit of over-achieving when you take out the loss to tOSU (Brewer had us in it!), we lost the other 5 games by a total of 29pt. or 5.8ppg. (Take out the 10 point loss to UM and it's only 4.75ppg.)
Point being, with a dash of Homerism, is that last year's team had guts: they won what they should have and came close to making the season even more successful.
Maroon-colored glasses firmly in place; I am proud of last year's grit, and I think we will win the whole damn thing in 2016.
I like where your head is at except for 2 things. ECU and Duke. We should never, fking ever lose to those 2 teams. I don't care how big a boy they THINk they are, VT should never lose in football to those 2 teams. EVER! Did I say ever , yet?
EVER.
And yet we have consistently done just that. This isn't VT's league anymore, gotta treat every opponent the same.
Say Brewer is not hurt, the reffing is reasonable, or Lefty called a better game, and we beat ECU. We are then going to be more likely to be favored in the later games. We lost one we should not have, so they expected us to lose more. That's how setting the odds work. We should beat Duke, ECU, and UNC, and had to bring in new coaches because we couldn't. You base should off the odds makers, who base it on how we are playing. I am basing it on how we should be playing. (SEC type logic I know, but if you don't believe you should win you will not.)
The win expectancy numbers are an after-the-fact reflection of the likelihood a team would win a game given how they played statistically in that game. As a general rule teams that play well statistically also win the game. The better one plays statistically, the higher the likelihood of winning the game (and vice-versa).
The numbers don't represent how VT was expected to do in each game before-the-fact.
A better measure would be how VT did against the spread in terms of wins and losses. In 2015, I believe VT lost 3 games it was expected to win and won one it was expected to lose. So basically in a 1/3 of the games, the result was the opposite of the expected result by the betting public. However in games with a spread of 4 or less, I believe VT went 3-1.
I would say that the 2015 was somewhat hard to get a handle on - and IMO the inconsistency and inexperience created by injuries (and also how they impacted certain game match-up strengths and weaknesses) playing a significant role in that.
Interesting - I learned something new. Does not change my perception of "games we should win", but as admitted, that has nothing to do with odds or stats, only what I see and feel.
We couldn't stop their QB from running over us either. To me, their QB's running success hurt us more than the refs, Loeffler and Brewer's injury all combined.
EDIT: Intended to be a reply to Kville Hokies
Agreed, but my point was still that the games we should win based on talent, program, etc. are not the same as games we should win per Vegas. Some teams play predictably below talent, some above, some to it. It is not accetable to me to let Vegas say we should lose to lesser talent because that is who we are now. Duke, ECU, UNC are games we should win, no matter what Vegas says.
well our record over the last 4 years says we're a middling team that loses those games so Vegas is right no? Like I don't think people realize that we've won exactly 2 home football games against D1 opponents the last two years. I'm excited for the Fuente era but you have to realize where we are starting from. 7 wins this year is a great start with 2017 being a target date for winning the Coastal if trevon, Ford, and Bucky come back
Not that it makes it much better but we've won 5 home games against D1 opponents the past two years. We've only won 2 against P5 (if UVA still counts) teams in that time span though. The stat I've heard that stings the most is the team to most recently win back-to-back games in Lane Stadium is Duke (Oct 2015). VT hasn't won back-to-back games in Lane since Oct 2013. Ouch.
My bad, meant FBS teams and completely forgot that Western Michigan was 2 seasons ago. And I've seen that one too, its been a painful last couple seasons for sure. Should be on the upswing soon though
VT was favored in the ECU and Duke games...
I say we go 8-4 with losses to Tennessee, @UNC, @Pitt and @ND.
6-2 in the ACC, maaaaaaaaaaybe we go to the ACCCG. We make a trip to the Sun Bowl and play Washington. How does that sound to everyone?
Sounds reasonable. Who else does Pitt have besides Connor?
Pat Nardnuzzi, but I think their nutritionist is a Primanti Bro.
I want to get excited... but then again, we've had people bullish on us for the past few years, only to see ourselves barely scrape our way to a bowl bid.
The most frustrating part of that is how many close games we've lost in those years. Its maddening to be so hyped preseason, then see the wins melt away by just a few points each.
I get what you are saying and agree to an extent, but I will always take a 3 point loss over a 15 point loss.
I will never take a loss over any other loss. There are no moral victories! Having said that, close losses sting more because you are just a FG or TD score away from winning. Double digits are a "Oh well!!!, maybe next time".
The stats on the number of losses by 7 points or less we've had from 2012-present is maddening. One of the biggest differences the last four seasons from the football we had become accustomed to was that we used to win those close games, somehow, some way. Think about 2008, one of the least talented defenses by star power/measurables ever, all freshman receivers, a putrid offense. Coming off a year where I think we sent a record number of players to the NFL, we somehow managed to win 10 games by winning close game after close game. We lost a few close ones like Miami, ECU, and BC (Cory Holt was our QB for much of the FSU game). But that could have easily been a season where we missed bowl eligibility and somehow we won 10 games. Those teams just had a different mental edge or demeanor or swagger or whatever you want to call it. We've seen glimpses of it since then, just not on the level it used to be.
edit: Despite how maddening it was at times with our offense, I have many fond memories of that season and the fight that team showed to turn a throw away year into an Orange Bowl win.
That's what insufficient recruiting will get you. Yes, we have talent on the roster, but the depth is shot and has been shot for a few years. Those close wins were earned because we just had a little more in the tank than the opponent time and time again. Once the recruiting started to fall off, the tides shifted.
Depth issues have hurt us no doubt, I'm not saying that it's all just a mental thing. However, that 2008 team did not have solid depth either, so in that specific case, it was a mental thing. There is no doubt the recruiting mistakes we have made contributed heavily to our less than stellar last four years, but we definitely don't have that edge anymore, at least not consistently.
I agree completely. We lost more than just our recruiting edge - we lost our competitive edge. In years past, when the team faced some adversity or a disappointing defeat, the leadership on the team and on the coaching staff rallied the guys together, and we usually saw strong finishes to the season. Pick a season from the past 10-12 years, and you can see a turning point where the team came together and used a strong performance as a springboard to success.
The past few years, we see what we think is that turning point of the season - that pivotal game where everything finally "clicks." Then, the very next week, the team looks unfocused, completely unprepared, and nothing like the team we saw the week before. Last year, you probably thought things were clicking after the Purdue game, and then we have a heartbreaking loss to ECU the very next week. After the bad performance against Pitt, we rally together and have a strong showing against NC State, only to come completely unraveled and send the season spiraling downward against Miami the next week. We lost our competitive edge, and we lost our consistency. Leadership was not stepping up. When the going got tough, we usually folded instead of playing harder.
Is our overall talent level what it was 10 years ago? No, I don't think we have the same depth at crucial spots. But this team still has talent in the starting 22 - we almost knocked off UNC, and we were leading OSU going into the 3rd quarter this year after beating them the year before. We need to find our edge, we need to play with better emotion, we need leaders to emerge (something I think has been sorely missing), and we need to play with consistency week to week. A lot of people have alluded to us simply "going through the motions" in the last part of the Beamer era, and I think that sentiment rings true in a lot of areas.
Off season is rough. I think I've used the collapse thread function more in the last month than I had since Joe created it...
Unfortunately, I usually forget it is there until someone points it out. This always seems to be after I read all of the posts that I should have collapsed.
Here is a simple solution for everyone up-thread. When you predict our win total for the upcoming season, say whether you mean just the regular season or are including the bowl game. Or give the number of losses as well so we can figure out what you mean. Typing "8-4" or "8-5" instead of "8 wins" would have prevented a whole lot of circular arguing over semantics.
For the record, I think we will go 7-5 (see how clear that is). Of course you include the bowl game when referring to past seasons because it occurred, but I have no idea how you can reasonably predict a bowl win or loss when you have no idea who we will play or if we will even be in one.
Offseason sucks.
But this doesn't account for the quality of win, strength of opponent, air temperature and weather at kick off, injuries, what Fuente ate for lunch, or if we are using all maroon everything or not. How can we even discuss this like it is apples to apples?
/s
Take all the legs. (I'm throwing money and legs at my screen. Let me know if you don't get them. I'll send it through pony express)
Why would you send them through the pony express? If you look at their records now they never won a game!
Don't get me wrong I'd be ecstatic if we beat UT or ND, but I'd rather see us taking care of business against ECU, Pitt, Duke, etc.
I want to see the team get up for the games we should win.
Maybe I'm getting you wrong. It's that but I think. You play to win the game, each and every game. That means getting up for all opponents whether you are favored or not.
I was referring to how we seemingly didn't get up for games we were favored in. The team was hyped up for Ohio State obviously but I want to see improvement against teams like Pitt. We just didn't bring the same intensity week to week.
Amen. Beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Keep it close and maybe win some games you aren't expected to win.
You had to mention Pitt, Moriarity. That game up there a couple of years ago...
Obligatory