Be Scared, Not Terrified of Alabama

First and foremost, let me say that its game week. We made it. Congratulations everyone.

Anyway, I said at the end of last season that there was no way I was going to buy into the #BeatBama business. I applauded Joes efforts to try and reinvigorate the fan base after the most disappointing season in years but I couldnt get behind it myself. I couldn't have my heart broken again by the team, not again. I would believe it when I saw it. That said, I felt like I knew a couple of things about last years Crimson Tide that maybe the average fan didnt know, things that are important for this Saturday.

1) The offense was bound to be good because it was powered by one of the best offensive lines in (at least) the past 5 years of college football. The 10th and 11th picks in last years NFL draft, the Rimington Award winner and a consensus top 15 pick in next years draft in Cyrus Kouandjio. Are Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon good? Yes and Yeldon is great. But Nick Saban himself couldve picked up a yard or two per carry behind that line.

2) The turnover margin was the single most important statistic in an Alabama football game last year. Per ESPNs box scores, only LSU, Georgia and Texas A&M. (ESPN claims that Florida Atlantic also won the turnover battle but the play by play says all fumbles were recovered by Alabama) In those three games, Alabama went 2-1, winning those two games by a combined 8 points and needed to score the final points in order to win each. In those games, the losing team also gave Alabama a net of 36 and 49 extra yards in penalties.

3) Their secondary showed holes in close games. Alabamas defense is predicated on stopping you on first and second down to force you into a passing third down. When the game is close, you can afford to be less predictable on third down. Against Georgia and A&M, Alabama allowed a receiver King and Swope, respectively to gain over 110 yards and against LSU, quarterback Zach Mettenberger went 24 of 35 for 298 yards. All of those numbers are well above their season averages.

Now lets look at this year.

The Hokies return every starter on the defensive line as well as leading tackler and tackler for a loss Jack Tyler. They ranked 19th in the country in sacks and tied for 9th in tackles for a loss last year. This simply embarrasses Alabamas returning experience on the offensive line which Phil Steele tallied as the 20th least experienced offensive line in the country. And that incredible line from last year gave up an average of 1.77 sacks per game, only ranking 56th out of 120 teams.

While Tech will be without Antone Exum, the secondary can hold it together, at least for a single game. If the coaches say that Kendall Fuller and Brandon Facyson are ready to play, I believe them. Keeping Amari Cooper, Kevin Norwood and Kenny Bell in front of the defense will be of upmost importance but Kyoshen Jarrett and Detrick Bonner have a year of experience of doing just that. Even without a dominant pass rush, I still trust this secondary against a passing offense that was 78th in the country last year in yards.

As for our offense against their defense, they will be great again like it always will be under Nick Saban and Kirby Smart. And until proven otherwise, I refuse to buy into our offense being anything better than mediocre. I also dont care about any of that. If LSUs offense, one that ranked 85th in total offense with an offensive line that paved the way for a pedestrian 170 yards per game on the ground and gave up 2.46 sacks per game, can go for 435 yards against the Tide and nearly double their time of possession, so can Virginia Tech, at least under Scot Loeffler. End of story.

And if he and Logan Thomas cant do it, the return game should help. Kyoshen Jarrett ranked 9th in the country in punt returns and Demetri Knowles ranked 12th in kickoff returns. Tech relied on Dyrell Roberts to get back into the 2009 game and arguably could have won that game despite getting more than doubled up in yardage without two special teams turnovers from inexperienced players.

But lets not forget one of the most important factors for any football game: motivation. Hokies know that anything can happen in a single game (see 2010). The Crimson Tide have been too busy caring about getting revenge on Texas A&M to worry about little ole Virginia Tech. After all, the Hokies come in unranked and as a 19 point underdog while Alabama has been elevated to god-tier. From all visible markers, Tech has the distinct advantage in the motivation category.

Heres the moral of the story. I only care about three things for this game: our defensive front, our coaches mimicking what another team did last year and holding onto the football. I dont care about our lack of depth in the defensive backfield. I dont care if our offensive line hasnt improved yet. I dont care about not having a go-to tailback. I dont care about their fantastic linebackers and I really could not give a flying fuck about how many national championships theyve won (exactly how many is it?) or whatever other measuring stick people want to throw out that does not matter for a single game.

LSU, Georgia and A&M kept it close with Alabama last year because of defense and solid passing games with big plays decided the final score. If our defensive front dominates their inexperienced offensive line, Alabama wont be able to move the ball and the game will always be within reach. If our coaches can follow LSUs blueprint for moving the ball against Alabama, the game will be at worst be a couple of plays away.

Do I think we will #BeatBama in Atlanta this year? Honestly, no. This is still Virginia Tech and we just cant win the biggest games we play and thats the only reason why I think our odds of winning are just at 33%. Be scared of Alabama because they are a well-coached team with playmakers at the offensive skill positions and a top notch defense. I know I am, as is Frank Beamer, Bud Foster and every other coach and player on the roster. But if you dont believe there is a chance this team beats Alabama, youre not only a bad Hokie but you drank the Kool-Aid of another team. And while that Kool-Aid may have tasted decently, I promise you that it didnt taste nearly as good as you think it did.