Matthew has reached category 5, making it the first cat 5 storm in the atlantic since 2007. Be on the lookout folks it looks like its taking a straight shot north, Florida might not get a direct hit its still really bad news for the Atlantic coast line. likewise the entire atlantic coast should be on total lookout. Wanted to hold off until the storm turned into a really risky threat but the threat is VERY real at this point. Look out jamaica.
predicted short term forecast
Spaghetti model - (basically all of the models output of the track of the storm rolled into one image)
Ill keep everyone posted the next week or so!
Forums:
DISCLAIMER: Forum topics may not have been written or edited by The Key Play staff.
Comments
I've got a trip to Charleston, SC planned for the 7th-9th... Should I be reconsidering that?
I think you'll be A-ok by the 9th will know a lot more in about 3-4 days
Hokiegirl and other friends planning beach trips I would reschedule....I hate to be a negative Nancy right now but after much intoxicated debates my colleagues and I have agreed that while it's a slow moving storm taking a straight shot into Massachusetts and wont be a direct hit on north carolina (or south carolina) it's probably going to be gross and rainy out with a pretty not fun tied due to the storms. At this point weatherman shibe is saying 70% no go 30% go
Thanks for the update. I just saw that the updated weather forecast shows rain for Saturday, and seeing as we're supposed to be giving some friends a tour of the city and many outdoor landmarks, I don't think that'd be much of a good time.
UPDATE: Just canceled the hotel in Charleston and made plans to spend the weekend in Pigeon Forge instead. Weather looks to be good there. The Hokies and Vols play at the same time, so watching the game should be a good time in Northeast Tennessee....
Mountains are a fair trade for the beach.
Gotta have 'em both.
Thanks eshiben (I think...lol jk). At this point we aren't sure if we're going to go, but we lean no. We would be there for the entire week, not just the early part, but we aren't sure about spending all the money/time for a soggy/blah week.
Any idea when it is going to hit Rhode Island and Massachusetts?
Id estimate not this coming week but the following one. This is the slowest moving system ive ever seen. And thats AWFUL news. Lots more rain and damage done on the coasts as the system plods north
Question. Has a hurricane popped up on the radar near Vinton? Just wondering because the way my basement and yard have been flooding the past 2 days I wouldn't be surprised.
Over here in Bonsack, it's been raining lots but the whole place is sloped enough, it runs out.
460 had some flooded places though.
I live in Vinton myself man! Basement took on some water and picked up more than 6 inches of rain in the past three days.
Our bedroom is in the basement and my wife and I woke up early Thursday morning on an island in the lake that was our bedroom.
I graduated from Byrd and I am about to say something I am sure you have heard before. GET THE HELL OUT OF VINTON!!! I despise that town!
Hey man I went to Byrd myself and to be honest I don't mind Vinton. The town is located adjacent to the Blue Ridge Parkway and is surrounded by the Blue Ridge Mountains....as a mountain guy that's all need.
My problem with Vinton is how how unwelcoming the police force is and also running into ex girlfriends at the grocery store. Now that's enough to get me to move..
But again if you like the outdoors but want to be close enough to a city like Roanoke without being in Roanoke....Just check out Vinton.
I currently have the headache of living in the city with none of the perks. Unless I'm headed towards Bedford, I have to drive through the city to go anywhere.
I left Vinton day 1 after Graduation and never looked back. I didn't make it far though as I met and married a Salem girl. You would be amazed at how big a difference 15 miles can make. Great HS football team and game day atmosphere, a straight shot to my land in Craig County, less hostile Police force, and not an ex-girlfriend in sight.
What year did you Graduate?
I'm technically in Stewartsville, but I have a Vinton address. It's close enough though. Believe me, I would throw all my shit in a u-haul tomorrow if I could.
We're planning a trip to OBX the same week as Hokiegirl, bad idea? Hoping they don't get slammed really hard...
again not positive as of now but you might beat the storm if you go next week shortly after that is looking...well not to good ill keep you all posted as more info comes in
For those who want to get the latest on their own schedule, the first image is from the National Hurricane Center.
Scroll down on that page to get rain, windspeeds, probability cones, etc. These products are updated every several hours, if not more often.
Looks like your spaghetti model is broken/missing. The hot water is there, but no noodles.
I thought I was the only one not seeing it.
The spaghetti is still cooking, obviously, and not visible under the water.
Holy shit - Cat 5?!?
Thanks Eshiben - will keep eye on this for sure. Prayers sent to the people and communities in the Caribbean as they brace for this monster.
For the record it weakened overnight to a Category 4
I hear it gets 1Gbps with the right conditions.
Score one for us geeks.
Yea, just want to limit the megahertz it could put on people in its path
Oh why do I get the feeling this is going to make the weather for the UNC game horrible?
Right now they're saying sunny with a high of 71 but that path is turning right towards us putting it near Orlando on Thursday. If anything we could be starting to get the outer bands by game day
Its basically a split between the models on how quickly it moves and how it mixes in with the next trough coming east. Depending on what happens there one of three things could happen
1) it moves north quickly and doesnt have time to strengthen as much (still super dangerous) moves up coast doing a lot of damage to the eastern seaboard
2) moves slowly, trough pushes it out to sea
3) moves north combines with trough a-la sandy.
Im reeeeeally crossing my fingers for the second option
Wow, thanks for posting. We're getting some interesting weather this fall.
Some friends are heading to Disney for the week. So...sucks for them huh?
Ah, Disney is not that bad.
I've been to Disney when a hurricane was headed there. Got there the day before the storm hit. Spent the storm day at the hotel feeling about as safe as you can in a hurricane. Had the rest of the week at the parks with virtually no one there. Disney even threw in some discounts on the room to apologize for the lost day.
So when can we expect the rain in DC. I reseeded my lawn this past Tuesday and would welcome all the extra rain in addition to what we have had the past few days.
What's the ACC policy on postponing games or cancelling games? Say this just went all the way up the east coast...not saying it will.
I work for FEMA installing generators for critical infrastructure and facilities after natural disasters and I have been put on Alert for this. I'm on the west coast but I may be headed east if this rakes the east coast. Good Luck.
Seeing as how I'm going to the beach that week in super friggin pissed. A week off is a week off, but nothing like a week at the crystal coast.
We were supposed to leave for Disney this Tuesday and stay through Sunday. Already cancelled it and going to reengage later in the month, not going to risk being stuck in a resort room with kids for two or three days.
Probably a good call. Right now it looks like north carolina and south carolina are gonna get pummeled keep your eyes peeled for a full writeup tomorrow
Thanks, man. While it probably won't affect me and my family's travel plans, their are a lot on TKP that it will. Know that your work is appreciated.
I'm supposed to fly from DC next Sunday (9th) headed to Orlando for a trip before I deploy (yet again). Should we be ok for the flight out of DC?
Should be ok on that. It's mostly just the coastlines on the atlantic that should be worried. We actually just had an hour long convo regarding this at bdubs (yeah on a football sunday were nerds I know)
This could be a really expensive storm though. And maine could be in for some historically bad floods when this is all said and done
I'm supposed to go to the Virginia coast next Friday night through Sunday with my son to visit schools.....may be postponing.
So what you are saying is that Hurricanes are back then?
I see what you did there.
Now say the hurricane tracks a little more west and Chapel Hill gets some spotty showers and wind...Does that hurt or help us at beating unc?
Rain generally favors increased rushing over passing. UNC is one of the worst rushing defenses in the country (116/128). VT is currently at 75 in rushing defense.
Thanks for the info brother!
It actually depends Ill have to dig around to find the site again but someone did analysis and "heavy rain" (which was like more than half of an inch in 3 hours) favors the defense and running game. Light rain actually favors yhe offense though statistically speaking. The study attributed that to defenders struggling to change direction as easily. Lot easier to make a cut when you know when it's coming in light rain
I'd hate for rainy weather to make us fumble the ball - let's say some crazy number like 5 times... on national television *ducks*
A favorite movie. 'His Girl Friday'. Hilarious!
Anyone have a house I can evacuate a family of six to with a newborn? /s the track moved west and O boy I'm not looking forward to the end of the week.
Looks like I'll be partying at UNC in a hurricane. Good thing we have a nice track record in them.
I'd say you could crash at our old place, but it's currently on the market and has nothing in it.
Yes...but it's in Summerville, so no help.
How about the eastern shore this upcoming weekend? There's a tentative rocket launch out of Wallops Island, VA on Sunday (10/9) night.Edit: Launch moved to 10/13
How close can you get to the launches there? I've always wanted to get over there for one.
I think within a mile (which is super close). I'm still researching (and talking to some industry people who work at Wallops) about the best spots. I can update this post with where I'm watching if you like.
Where are you on the shore? The old NASA ferry dock near Atlantic is a great place to watch from. Before moving down here to the OBX, I lived in Onancock for about 8 years
tehee
To be fair I always read your username as a Jamaican man telling me to rub my anus.
What has been seen cannot be unseen O.o
I'll have to look into that place. Thank you
No worries, from 13, you'll head east on Mappsville Rd (intersection where Matthew's Market is), follow it almost to the end and take a left on Pierce Taylor Rd, down at the end you'll see the old ferry dock and places to park
Yes, please do
I'm driving back from Greenville NC to DC this Thursday, then back on Sunday morning. Will I be hitting the worst of it at any point?
Living in the OBX, I'm definitely hoping this pushes east out to sea, in addition to the obvious reasons, Mustang Music Festival is in Corolla this weekend, Fri & Sat, and also, if it does it, I have to go out the next morning to do damage assessment, don't be messing with my weekend Matthew!
I'm with you. We got 10" in about 28 hours last Thurs-Fri. Several roads washed out and record flooding levels. It was so bad that the swim portion of the IronMan was cancelled and the bike portion reduced down to 100 miles. I can't handle more rain and hurricane winds on top of that.
Yeah, last week was rough, there is still about 8" of standing water in some areas of Corolla. Beach road in Duck, in some places had 5 feet of water on it. Ground is super saturated already, with more rain and hurricane force winds, we're going to have a lot of downed trees I'm afraid, makes me nervous with the 5 pines I have in my yard.
How is Mustang Music Festival? I always see the ads for it down there and seems like a fun spot for a festival.
So just saw the latest potential models and one of them has Matthew making landfall Sat directly into Myrtle Beach FML.
Looked at NBC map and the projected path looks to hit east coast of NC, SC pretty good, and that end of VA. Hope the storm veers out to sea for your and other's sake.
Calling for eshiben!
So I'm looking to have a rather important event on Sunday night in Richmond. Anyone have any idea how wet it'll be?
That depends. What is the bro-to-wo ratio?
Worth mentioning now, but it was actually 1:1. Well, 1:2 if you account for the fact that a friend was in the bushes watching/photographing me propose.
Also, shoutout to the handful of IV TKPers who totally called that one based on this thread alone.
Congrats man. I totally figured out what it was but kept my
mouthfingers...oh, hell...I didn't comment in case anything was super secret and would be spoiled.2pm release
hoping for the BAMM track, but I'll take anything but GFS or HWRF
Well.... This isn't good
Weather is going to be an ugly shitty mess during the UNC game this week
I wish each one of those lines was shown as a probability distribution that the storm's eye is at that point at that day and time.
For instance, what is our chance that the storm follows the eastern-most path and causes the least impact on our tailgating and football fun?
Can we see the data please?
State of emergency declared in NC. Some high school games (and at least one SC college game) being moved to Thursday.
Regardless of whether the storm makes landfall, it is likely to be quite windy and wet in Chapel Hill at gametime.
So if they were to move VT to Thursday, seems like it would benefit the good guys. (It is my hope that after we beat them on Thursday the storm would safely continue out to sea, with little damage to property or people)
Wait, is that a serious option?
CSU has rescheduled their home game, but the storm would be right on top of them by Saturday if it stays west. Chapel Hill should just be wet and windy, but who knows. There was no chatter about our game getting moved, just me making an observation.
Just looked it up.... ours won't be the only one impacted
NCSU is home on Saturday against Notre Dame at 12:00
UNC is home on Saturday against Virginia Tech at 3:30
Duke is home on Saturday against Army at 3:30
Wake is home on Saturday against Syracuse at 7:00
South Carolina is home on Saturday against Georgia at 7:30
Just saw a tweet that has center closer to Wilmington at 2pm, then I had a thought.
Just move it to Lane. Field drying system can handle the rain, and puts everyone farther from the storm.
lane might not even get touched this weekend. Spaghetti models for those interested
http://www.cyclocane.com/matthew-spaghetti-models/
Also good note for everybody, you dont want to be on the front right quadrant of the storm (if you slice it into quarters through the eye the top right/front right always has the worst weather. So try not to fall into that, and at least we have that going for us
There is precedent for that. See USCe and LSU, last year I think?
Not doing the write-up quite yet because man its a close call on this one... but i will leave you with this, if this thing comes any further inland I could totally see the game getting moved, or rescheduled (or kickoff time moved earlier). Regardless, this hurricane is going to crush the NC coast. It moves super slowly meaning its going to dump a ton of water wherever it goes (thats really really bad) and storm surge will have even more time to wreak havoc. Its also probably going to hit the SC NC coast as a high end category 2 (maybe even low category 3) Saturday afternoon.
Hokiegirl I will say it most definitely now DO NOT GO TO THE OUTERBANKS THIS WEEKEND PERIOD END OF STORY.
The spaghetti models have all zeroed in basically on a track but considering how close we are to the cutoff we could be talking anything from a quarter of an inch of rain (still a lot but definitely playable) to a couple of inches of rain and if anyone needs evidence for what that can do to a football game here ya go
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-11-26-steelers-d...
I'm going to do a more complete write-up in a day or two but wanted to touch base with the game. If you want an early call from the euro ensemble we're forecasted to get half an inch of rain. This number could easily increase or decrease though. This absolutely is relevant to us this week and if you are traveling absolutely keep an eye on the weather reports and ill do my best to keep you all informed.
So I'm not so worried about the game as I am my house and kids right now.
if you'd like precise forecast locations you gotta give me a place. I try to focus on the location of the game as thats the one thing we all share in common but i am more than happy to give forecasts for the coast as well. Those will all be included in the write-up
Richmond?
Specifically, would i be able to take my kid to the pumpkin patch on Saturday morning and not get rained on...
Also Sunday evening
Murrells Inlet SC.
Norfolk, VA
Yes, Norfolk/Hampton
Me too, thanks. I have a wedding on Saturday in Virginia Beach. Plan is to drive the family down from Blacksburg on Friday night then drive back on Sunday morning. Will I be able to get out?
How about Kill Devil Hills, how am I looking? lol
In all honesty, I'm starting to get a little nervous with this guy. Might be sending Mrs. 757 and 757 Jr. to my parents place in Chesapeake. I've got to stick around to do damage assessment for the area the morning after the storm...think I'll be sleeping downstairs Saturday night.
I am starting to worry about my folks. They just retired to Myrtle Beach last Spring (in Market Common). Had a brand new house built.
Luckily there they won't have to really worry about storm surge or tress coming down. But being without power could be a real concern along with local flooding. Make sure they have water, food they can eat uncooked, flashlights with batteries at a minimum.
They did go to their hurricane preparedness meeting this summer so I am sure they have all that stuff taking care of. For all I know they are heading out of town to get away from the storm. I am going to call them today.
If they went to their meeting they are ahead of 80% of the people down here. Too many near misses and people have stopped paying attention to the warnings. They don't know their zone, they don't know their evacuation routes.
When my mom was still living in North Myrtle Beach, they would vacate at the drop of a hat. Always headed out to the Howard Johnson's in Florence, for whatever reason. She'd call and leave the same message, "We're at the HoJo in Flo if you need us". I think they probably had a bunch of friends that did the same and they all never missed a happy hour.
Yeah we're going to follow your advice and avoid the OBX. Really bad situation brewing for those in it's path. I'm gonna stay up in my mountains away from this. Thanks eshiben, really appreciate all the feedback and looking forward to reading your in-depth write up!
Will I be taking a boat to work on Friday? Hilton Head, Sc
Eshiben, how about Roanoke Rapids, NC. Let me know if I'll have a weekend or I'll be spending it all weekend at the EOC. Much appreciated.
May I ask what field you are in?
I work for Halifax County. I'm part of the County Manager's office.
Sorry guys battling a cold was just out for 5 hours earlier.
Murrells Inlet - you're in for a doozy eye of the storm looks like its going to be right off shore. The track seems to be moving slightly more west with each model run which isn't good news for anybody. The Euro ensemble has you getting over 10" of rain which isn't unreasonable, more frighteningly though due to your proximity to the sea (not sure if you're oceanfront or not but according to a quick search on a map you have to be pretty damn close) storm surge is a large concern for you. Be prepared for quite a ride this looks to be a really dangerous system and you will be among the most affected people. If you're going to try to wade it out I recommend you prepare accordingly and I'll be hoping to hear from you after the system passes through.
Norfolk - While you're not getting a direct hit you're still getting hit pretty hard by the front left quadrant of the storm (which while it isnt the most intense portion is still a freaking hurricane). While it will lose a little muster over NC and SC i still fully expect it to be a very dangerous system and probably still a cat 1 hurricane in the area.
Richmond - For now it seems that Richmond will be spared by this entire ordeal, however should the models continue to move further inland (which is a possibility) you'll see a spike from half an inch of rain to something like 5" of rain very quickly. For now it seems that Richmond only needs to be concerned about outflow from the Hurricane making some rain bands but overall you should be ok. Again keep an eye on everything this could easily trend a little more inland and lest northeasterly as the system hits shore
Roanoke Rapids - further south from Richmond so you're going to be getting what Richmond basically could get should the storm shift west a little bit (although if it shifts more this forecast could get worse for you as well...) however at this point you're looking at approximately 5" of rain and some pretty decent wind although nothing like the coastlines could be seeing.
I expect the storm to be right off the coast of SC myrtle beach region around 1 PM Saturday although rain will probably begin before then. Stay safe guys, I'm going to do a final forecast on Wed when everything should be certain I have some jaw dropping photos from this storm already and will see if i cant gather some footage after it makes landfall over the Carribean Islands for the write-up
Thanks for the update and information. I'm more worried about the amount of rain. Norfolk floods in a lot of places when we just have a decent rain storm. Last time we got hit by a hurricane (maybe Irene) water was approaching my front porch steps. We've had a lot of rain recently, I'm interested in what the storm surge will be. Thanks again for the great insight.
For Murrells Inlet/Myrtle Beach this is going to be BAD! If I wasn't on medical leave to help with new baby I would have been recalled Thursday to work through whenever storm and imminent damage was taken care of. The Grand Strand (area from NC border to Georgetown) has already seen a lot of rain last few weeks. Currently I'm looking up generators and thinking about if I should board up the windows. (All houses here new built are required to come with pre cut pieces of wood for all windows.
Just want to give a note of caution here - Saturday/Sunday is a VERY long time away forecast-wise for this storm. Average forecast errors from the National Hurricane Center result in a possible landfall and/or worst effects, anywhere from Florida to the Outer Banks to none at all (out to sea).
Average strength errors (with consideration to the possible tracks of the storm) result in a spread of storm strength anywhere from strong tropical storm to major hurricane upon landfall and/or interaction with land.
At this point I strongly discourage any concrete changing of plans and reliance on forecasts like the above - but it is important to note that those in the possible path of the storm (again, anywhere from Florida to the Outer Banks to the Tidewater area) should be prepared with plans to stay safe.
eshiben5, this is not meant as a slight towards you - I really enjoy your gametime forecasts! I do think that specific forecasts 4 to 5 days before storm effects take place is jumping the gun way too early. After all, the model ensembles just took a major shift yesterday, bringing the consensus track significantly shifted towards the coast. There is still a lot of time for more significant changes in model consensus and ultimately actual storm track.
Those who may possibly be affected should keep a close eye on the NHC's forecasts available here (click on the Hurricane Matthew icon on the map), and NHC discussion of hurricane forecasts available here.
Also, for those asking, wind speed probabilities (hurricane-force, 50 knot, and tropical storm-force) are also provided by the NHC here.
I think while this is a fair warning and reminder, I wouldn't fault Eshiben5 for giving fair warning on what it could look like. Better to be over prepared as opposed to underprepared keeping in mind that the forecast will adjust constantly.
Weve got another meteorologist on here! Holla!
But no seriously hes right, as is the guy who commented. I tried to bring up that point by mentioning numerous times IF it sticks to its current guns. Preparing the day before is never a good idea so im giving people live and real time updates.
My concrete forecast will probably be coming out Wed
Eshiben,
Can you add a forecast for the Savannah Hilton Head area to the next forecast?
Thx
I'm a little confused as to when the storm will be hitting the GA/SC border. I think it is projected for late Friday night to early Saturday morning but I maybe completely wrong.
I'm not familiar with life near a real coastal area. Can someone give me an idea of what to expect with a storm surge? My wife has a conference in Isle of Palms, SC that starts on Sunday. We were scheduled to arrive late on Friday night. I can careless about some rain but storm surges washing buildings away.
My concern with IOP would be wind and roads. "Some rain" washing out roads, bridges and pipes, along with wind damaging structures and felling trees/people/cars are more likely than buildings getting washed away.
Yup. I would check this page tomorrow to see what to expect through Saturday if you are concerned about flooding:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153536.shtml?inundation#contents
Was planning on driving down on Saturday morning to Goldsboro to visit my sister and niece. Still hoping I can get down there before it hits. I guess that's not a great idea
11am update:
Yeah, that's a lot worse than the 8am. At least it looks like it'll pick up speed. Wonder what they'll do about the game now.
I was at that game. It was wet.
#source..I was there..remember?...I just said that..duh
Wasn't Blacksburg on the outskirts of that storm where it was mostly just rain? I remember it hitting central VA hard but the winds and such were not that far west which is probably why they decided to play.
I am not sure the state would want the emergency personnel tied up at NCState, Duke and UNC football games in the middle of a hurricane.
Yes. We were in the very outer bands of it in Blacksburg. Isabelle was no joke. Here in Kitty Hawk many homes were destroyed, lost to sea, condemned, etc.
(That picture isn't from the A&M game during Isabel. It's got an ACC Champs banner in the back. I'm pretty sure it's the 2009 Miami game.)
Correct. It's from the Miami smackdown in 2009
yes these are correct...I was there
Me too.
I remember standing in front of my motel room soaking wet with arms full of wet clothes, and the stupid key card would not work, because the stupid Econo Lodge in Salem could never figure out how to program key cards for multiple days.
The game pictured above wasn't a hurricane I don't believe. That was the game against Miami and it was just heavy rain. It may have been the outer part of a named storm but it was not Isabelle I know.
Not even that.
Tropical Depression Eight was happening around that day, but it was off the coast of Africa and didn't turn into much.
That was just a pure rainstorm.
Yeah, I was at the aTm game in the actual hurricane and at this game. The aTm game was rainy and breezy, but it wasn't like the Miami game. That's the worst conditions I've ever seen a VT game played in. That's what we should expect on Saturday.
Poor Fedora, his visor isn't going to keep his head dry at all.
Who are the players in that picture?
Hokies!
but seriously..I think Whitley and Grimm?
Cody Grimm and Eddie Whitley?.... Maybe
World's ending! Live like it's your last!
"...a note about basic geography..."
Fire.
That comment at the end.
Yeah, this guy is like that. About once a year, he has to apologize for his behavior.
Seriously, though? There are people in Virginia Beach who don't know what "Hampton Roads" means?
Most should know what the region is known as geographically, and whether they're south side, eastern shore or peninsula.
But I imagine many don't know what the term Hampton Roads means. (i.e. where it came from)
My Wife's family is 757 all day. Hampton. And she did not know what Roads meant.
Grew up around there and everyone knew what Hampton Roads meant, though not really what it was. You cannot go a day living there without hearing the term unless you shut the doors and windows, listen to no TV or radio, and even then, you'd be hard pressed not to hear it. It is, in short, ubiquitous in the region.
is that supposed to be a cat or a raptor? Both? Captor?
Just savage there at the end. I love it
Well the two counties around me, Horry and Georgetown just went to OPCON 3. It means the state of SC will likely go to declare state of emergency, and possibly order some evacuations .
Well, I for one am more of an Opcon-A fan. Best eye drops on earth.
I'll show myself out now...
Can someone please venture an educated guess what this all likely points to for the weather in Chapel Hill, NC around 3:30 to 7pm this coming Saturday?
Or for flights arriving at the Raleigh-Durham airport around 9:30am that morning?
This could be a big problem. But we're still several days out. The models are coming together, but they could still change. Keep in touch with your airline and know your options though.
Refer to Ollie Williams with the blacuweather forecast.
Nothing specific or official, but lots of rumors flying around that game may be played Friday night. The game could even be moved, but moving one means moving every football game played in NC and SC to a different location, which is complicated to say the least. The easier option is to push game forward to avoid the nastiness altogether. But again, no official statement or changes have been released.
Keep your eyes and ears open for official word on the game's status.
Judging from the current path they're putting out... could be pretty calm for about an hour or so around kickoff...
Of course, that's because the eye would be on top of the NC triangle, but that's beside the point
Everyone's talking football and all I can think about is...
I'll be in Williamsburg, VA this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. How screwed am I?
c'mon BAMM model
BAMM model would be pretty clutch.
CMON EMERIL MODEL!
*SC UPDATE*
Governor just declared state of emergency. Ordered coastal communities to evacuate, schools closed, she also urges the football games to be moved.
Just watched this.
Love how the second question at the press conference was about the USCe game.
Definitely got my attention when I heard that lol.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
Really good weather info if you're interested guys!
Hahaha. Sorry about that.
Bro
So the latest EURO output has it making landfall in Florida. Definitely something up with that run but also should be noticed.
Also this is a good link to weather models like the GFS and euro.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Guys if you want your specific areas forecasted please continue to comment them in here in writing them all down now. Planning to do a write-up/forecast tomorrow its gonna be a HUGE one ill cover all areas then. That being said, if youre in the current damage path or somewhere on the east coast between SC and Va beach id be prepping for the worst. When the euro and GFS line up it's usually very reliable. This is a very real threat and while some may argue its not certain yet there's a reason the governments of rhe carolina are evacuating. The last real hurdle for it is getting over those carribean islands and the models are standing strong. I dont see it changing course much from here
Northern VA? We are supposed to have a 6-year old birthday party with a bounce house Saturday at 2...
Gracias amigo.
Here's the forecast for that bouncy house.
I'm getting flashbacks of the poster on the wall of Mulder's office on 'The X-Files':
"I want to believe."
Leg for you. I saw your reply and was doing a double take. Spot on.
Williamsburg VA on Friday and Saturday?
I'll hit you with an obvious one: Kill Devil Hills, NC
The sound is easily a foot above normal due to all of the rain that the counties in the Albemarle watershed got about two weeks ago (15"-20"). Storm path is going to be everything wrt this storm... if the eye stays to our east, we should be good (normal hurricane wind damage & beach erosion). If it comes up the sound, it gonna flood and flood bad (Hurricane Irene on steroids) due to the bathtub effect. Most of the residents of the Towns (KH, KDH, NH) live on the west side of the bypass with no dune protection from the sound. As this storm progresses, I would love to know your thoughts on the path past (through) the Outer Banks.
Good to see another Outer Bankser. No joke about the sound being high right now. It's only going to take a little puff of wind to flood. Hoping where I am will be okay (about midway between the sound and Ocean, off 1st St. in KDH)
You have two major ditches around you that connect right to KH Bay - I would use Hurricane Irene as a benchmark... If the storm path is coming up the sound, I would expect at least 1' more water than Irene brought in. Find your nearest neighbor that had Irene flood damage damage & then extrapolate.
You probably already know this: From experience, I can tell you that even if you have flood insurance, they will not pay for anything damaged at grade level or on the first floor of pile supported houses (our typical utility rooms, garages, storage, or bonus rooms). If you have anything valuable that can't get wet, spend the time to bring it up into your living room or kitchen.
Stay safe & we'll have to share a brew sometime after the storm.
As far as I know, no flooding has occurred at my house. My house is elevated, but all the ones around me are ground level living.
might have to keep in mind grabbing some milk crates to set my kegerator for homebrew and my beer fridge up on, no room to move them upstairs...
Looks like the latest models have the storm tracking to our east (of course that will probably change a few more times before it gets here) so hopefully we'll be okay. There is also a bit of a ridge between me and the sound so it would have to come up quite a bit to overtop that ridge I would think.
Keep dry, stay safe, and let's definitely grab a brew some time.
Did you say kegerator and homebrew? Need help putting them up on crates?
Or, oh, I don't know, lightening them up a little bit? Y'know, for insurance purposes. And science.
lol, that I did. Three tap, only got one keg tapped right now though, looking to get a couple more batches done pretty soon here to get the other taps flowing
this is the scenario I am worried about
Boseman, Montana? I kid, I kid.
Palm Coast, Florida. But only if you have time. Seems like it isn't as certainly in the line of fire as other folks in SC and NC.
So yeah, about the Florida coast not being in the line of fire as much as SC/NC...
Really concerned about this area now. My Mom lives there and is there by herself right now...
If she is in an evacuation zone and still has the opportunity to get to a safe place, she needs to act quickly. From everything I've seen, this storm is very, very serious trouble for those in its path.
Thanks. Definitely going to be one for the record books, in many bad ways.
Fortunately, she is far enough west/inland that she isn't in the evac zone. She is west of 95, about ten miles (+/-) from the coast. I am hopeful that as long as no localized flooding or winds cause issues, she won't have to worry about storm surge, etc. and can escape relatively unfazed.
I'm sure she will be fine outside of the evac zone. It's certainly going to be a rough ride for everyone in the area. I'll be looking forward to hearing that she's doing great after everything clears up.
I'll post back here with the (hopefully) good news. Thanks again!
She made it through just fine. No damage to speak of. No power for a while now but otherwise good. Thanks again.
Great to hear!
made an error - how do I delete this?
you don't. best you can do is edit it to be something funny or beg Joe or the mod to delete it for you (very rare and requires child sacrifice and a roll of 15 or better).
I can't wait for more Stranger Things gifs to be in rotation around here.
Best in a while. Have a leg.
I see what you did there!
what a gif, wish i had extra legs for you
and here's my contribution
Same here. Such a great show. Looking forward to season 2.
.
Cthulhu always gets a leg.... and a tentacle.
Ash always gets a leg...and a chainsaw..
It's pronounced Kevin.
Just curious what the D.C. Metro area can expect...rain, I'm assuming, and not much else.
Doesn't matter - either way expect 1 hour delays for metro.
We're thinking of visiting friends in Raleigh, going down Friday afternoon/evening but timing is flexible Friday. Good idea, bad idea?
Do you like high winds and floods?
I'm not going near Crabtree Valley Mall, so......
I see you know your Raleigh very well
I should, I lived there for 20 years aside from 4 years spent on Upper Quad. I can't tell you how many summer thunderstorms altered my commute home around that mall cleverly built on a flood plain.
Hah, yeah we live probably 3 or so miles from the mall. Have half a mind to head down there late Saturday or Sunday just to see how bad it is.
I remember how badly Crabtree Creek flooded during Fran and Floyd. Could be bad news if that kind of thing happens again this weekend.
And with the expansion of the mall and the surrounding area the past few years, a whole lot more damage could be done than last time.
Well my in laws from Iowa who moved down here are freaking out, my just had a baby wife is freaking out and I'm just like "it's my birthday could we just eat steak"
Go to the source.
So as soon as the government started taking this really serious the latest tracks have moved it east, which means more people refusing to believe the weather forecasters and government evacuation orders.
5 PM update -- Raleigh area is supposed to get almost 5 inches of rain. Blacksburg looks to be getting about a tenth of an inch.
so a normal saturday in blacksburg
So Raleigh is getting the shaft and VT is barely getting the tip
Sounds about right
I'm on a hill so I'm not worried about flooding, I'm on the first floor so I'm not worried about tree damage. But we're definitely going to lose power.
Doesn't matter, had rain
I wish I could show you all the euro, it's straight up screwing with me. Its current path has it wrecking the Jacksonville area, and the carolina coasts, then looping back around for round two. I just really dont see that happening, once it clears cuba the next model run should be really telling.
Hence why im holding off for another 12 hours thr next model run gets in around midnight and as much as I love you guys im not staying up till 3 writing this bad boy
I really need some clarity. Right now we are deciding between staying and running up to Richmond. Being in the car with a wife who just gave birth a less than week old, a 5 year old and a 3 year old in hours long traffic does not sound fun.
Where do you live Hokie Fireman?
Murrells Inlet SC
your right on the edge but it seems to be trending offshore. I'd wait till tommorow, and instead of driving to Richmond just get a cheap hotel for Friday Night an hour west and you should be good either way.
Sumter & Florence, SC are well out of the path if need to leave.
Every hotel big enough to hold us all (6) plus the dog are booked all the way to Charlotte.
Give me Adult, Children(ages), animal totals and I'll find you a place
I am out enjoying a cigar... text me or call me 609-204-4187.. i will find you something, it will give me something to do
2 adults, 6 day old, 16 month old, 3.5 year old and 5 year old and one dog. Need something with two separate rooms in the hotel, like a Suite.
While im still waiting on this....I can't see it looking to good for you fireman if you can take off early a trip to richmond might not be a bad idea. Maybe take a weekend to da burg?
I found the Wingate by Wyndham & Comfort Suites Four Seasons in Greensboro, NC a 3.5 hr drive, I couldn't find anything on the pet policy though. Both at around $130 a night. Also there is availability for hotels along the coast such as in Charleston and Hilton Head. These may seem like poor options but in reality the hotels have food & backup generators and are more then likely designed to withstand hurricane force storms.
I am always amazed when they shut down Atlantic City as the casino hotels are designed and built to withstand cat 5 hurricanes and are required to have backup generators to run the whole place due to the casino gambling.
Hokies helping Hokies! You deserve all the legs!
Hey, Fireman, just in case, I've got your dinner plans right here.
Although your propensity for inferior burritos puzzles me, I will concede that queso dip is better than none.
Thanks for your work. I think after talking it over my wife is in no condition post birth to travel in a car for long distances. Your suggestion of finding a new hotel in charleston etc gave us an idea, we are contacting the new major hotels in Myrtle Beach and seeing if we can get a room if needed.
Eh just because the models trended one way doesnt mean the track is trending that way. If anything its trending more on shore. The reason the euro and most models have that track is due to a high over new england. I just dont see the high being strong enough to block off matthew, we shall see in a few hours. Fireman im stayin up for you I will have word on here as soon as the next model run finishes
I'm sure you saw what the GFS just did. I can't take this Hurricane anymore.
72 hr winds are slightly strong heading off the mid-atlantic coast, water temperatures will guide the storm off the coast of NC..... I predict weakening of the storm and it will move off the coast.
I've just been watching the cone bend further toward the east with each update on the National hurricane Center today. I was guessing it was because a front was pushing it down and/or offshore. You think the storm will power through the front and not turn offshore?
My folks are in Zone B in Myrtle and are waiting for more info before they make their decision. They may end up heading west to Tennessee for a few days to see their siblings.
Fireman id get out of town. Storm appears to hug the coast from florida up through SC and I think this will probably be the final track. The good news is VT wont be playing in a hurricane, just some heavy rain and probably some wind too... Regardless id drive outta town for the weekend. And those of you in florida youre in for one heck of a storm and should the models be correct it's got a really weird path, tune in tomorrow for the report
Wait... what?!?
because f*** the Bahamas...that's why
latest models are looking a lot better for us, but man, that would be some shit for the bahamas.
Not unheard of.
Even hurricanes don't want to touch the offensive train wreck that is the Muschamp-coached USCe.
Why do I feel like Roberto Duran right about now?
I think this wins the internet today
MRW (Matthew's Reaction When)
This might be the greatest post ever.
Why? He didn't even mention Marcus.
HA! A Bender-Marcus reference always gets a chuckle and a Leg out of me.
Anyone else getting a chuckle out of the one that has Matthew peacing out of the Atlantic and heading waaaaay up the Mississippi?
they just want to keep the gulf coast on guard, never know, lol
Maybe Nicole is Matthew's ex and he's trying to avoid her
He doesn't have to try hard. Nicole has no idea where she's going.
This is why you should never storm while drunk. Clearly Matthew saw her in trouble and is coming to her aid to help walk her home
Let's not pretend Matthew is a good guy
They're down for some Netflix n Chill at a resort in Bermuda
Who knew that Nicole drove a Yukon Denali with the family stick figures on the back, has Maryland tags, and drives in Virginia.
So what have we learned from the latest models?
Game oooooooooooooon
how is this not green yet? best movie ever!
So, the latest model...
The Canes aren't doing anything outside of Florida?
Man... the latest updates have this thing tucking tail and peacing out around the Ga/SC coastline
Its actually starting to look like the weather could be surprisingly good for the game
Which, time to plug it - >1700 tickets are still available on StubHub for as low as $29
It's funny how one of the only times we care about
footballthe weather is if it affects our game. Or school / govt closing. Other than it's "keep calm and carry on".Well, that kind of is the point...
No football = no game.
Ooops typo. Should read ok now.
OK sorry, poor attempt at humor apparently...
ZOMFGWTFBBQ NOT THIS SHIT AGAIN
Well, who could blame her?
OP's face when he checks his post
Image 1
Image 2
Image 3
And then this follow up...
I can't help notice the trough of no rain cutting right across the middle of NC on Saturday. I wonder if this means we're shaping up to have a day where the two systems buffer each other enough to keep the rain from both well away from our area.
Could not have said it better myself. As for kickoff im expecting some rain
I dunno...the caption on image 1 brought this to mind...
Whoa is that's intense
Good thing they've been practicing with wet balls all week...
um
what
I think there was a snapchat showing coaches pouring water from bottles out over the hands of ball carries in place of the "glove on a stick" drill.
They should just set off the fire sprinklers in the Beamer Barn.
Schweaty balls?
Just FYI, that tweet is from last night.