OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH-Wee what a week this has been forecasting, this storm has been all over the place and sure enough the day has finally come for the forecast! I'll also be including some other forecasts that you guys were asking about at the bottom after the go hokies!
Didn't realize how much the models could switch up as a result of a few mountains over cuba/Haiti and as we mentioned from the get-go a lot of the track on this bad boy will have to do with a trough coming across the United States. While the models might not be zeroed in yet completely (intensification can do some weird stuff) they have cleared their biggest hurdle in the mountainous regions in cuba and Haiti (yes that can impact things a lot!)
Leading up to this week we were looking at a storm that could crush the eastern seaboard and I made a statement that depending on what happened with the pace of the storm would really impact the eastern seaboard as far north as New York. Basically what everyone has been looking at and the general disagreement between the models would be what kind of pull a trough coming across the US would have on the storm. Typically these things win out, which is why the pace was so important. This storm has been a VERY slow moving system and I think anyone can attest to that fact. It seems like we've been talking about it for damn near a week and it hasn't even hit Florida yet. If that bad boy had picked up some pace it probably could have wreaked havoc up the coast before the trough came across. Luckily for us it didn't pick up any speed which gave the trough enough time to loop across the US and influence it before it got to far north. I dont have enough time to get through everything I need to so this NWS image will have to due. Note the line that says Rain and Tstorms right around the Washington. That bad boy is going to be the primary driving force in this entire system in the next couple of days and holds a lot of our east coast weather well in its grasp
As a result of this trough showing up its basically taking the momentum and trajectory of the storm and pushing it eastward back out to sea (not as abruptly as initially thought but I'll get into that shortly...) The storm should make its way up the east coast making landfall with the eye hitting right around the coast just east of Orlando (small town of Rockledge if you wanna get really picky) at about a category 4 strength which is very rare for that portion of Florida. Some of you saying it may be deteriorating are right as of now but are not taking into account the very warm water off of the Bahamas, which will further intensify the storm. Despite passing over some pretty rugged regions in the carribean the storm managed to maintain its eyewall (eye of the storm) indicating a very organized and dangerous system. Furthermore its already showing signs of intensification, with the tightening of the eyewall and increased lightning. More worryingly, as I mentioned in the other thread the most dangerous portion of a hurricane is the front right quadrant (basically draw a line through the storm straight up and down and horizontal through the eye, if you're on the upper right quadrant...you're in for a doozy) thus as it moves up the coast most coastal towns will feel the total wrath of a pretty strong hurricane.
Here's some evidence of what the southeastern coast is up against....
Sidenote we also got these magnificent views while it was forming
These are sprites which are basically just lightning strikes going up into the atmosphere from the top of the storm.
As this thing pushes up the coast it will steadily weaken but it should still be taken very seriously, I expect a lot of flooding for most of Florida the entire SC coast and a good chunk of the NC coast.. If you are in these target regions pllllleeeease heade my warning and try to get out of the way if possible, if you go inland up to virginia you may be A-ok. With this most recent model run (fresh off the presses) we have a slight disagreement between the two models. The GFS has the storm moving much slower and plodding up the coast still, much akin to the forecast a lot of you have been throwing around the last day or so (it began late yesterday afternoon). The Euro on the other hand has the storm picking up a little pace while intensifying through Florida. Furthermore the trough wont reach quite as far south so the storm will have a good chance to rip into the Carolinas before being pushed off shore. Judging by the Euro's accuracy throughout this entire ordeal (its been first on a lot of the trends, whether it be the westward track, the trough impacts, the loop-d-loop) it seems like its a bit ahead of the game. While we wont be experiencing super intense hurricane force winds (75 mph gusts or anything) I do think we'll be getting a ton of rain during the game as the left hand quadrants of the storm (the weaker ones) will still get a clean shot to central NC. Expect rain...and lots of it this weekend and a good bit of rain too. That being said there is still some uncertainty with this system, I am by no means saying im 100% positive that this is what will happen, just saying that there is some strong probability this could happen think on odds of 100 I'd say that this would happen on likeeeeeee 60 of them. (note thats where 60% chance of.... in weather forecasts comes from)
So what does this mean for the game? I expect a slopfest on offense, turnovers...lots...which dear god pleaseeeee no more fumbles.
but it could turn into that with the amount of difficulty the storms will force on the passing game. However I am still confident as I expect Bud to more consistently shut down the run than gene chizik and his "bend dont break" defense. Ultimately mother nature is going to make this a really tricky game if this forecast holds up (still one more hurdle in the Bahamas to be overcome) but as of now I'm going with the euro and I will be happy to keep live updates running on this site!
Yes i do realize my forecast differs from the national hurricane center, but I think they will update theirs shortly. Prepare yourselves ladies and gentlemen on the east coast this could get ugly in places
Final predictions for the game
2+" of rain during the game
20 MPH gusts
high - 72
Low - 63
Clouds obviously
GO HOKIES!!!!!!
Everyone else's forecasts:
Orlando - 5" of rain gusts up to 50 MPH
Jacksonville - 6" of rain hurricane force winds
Myrtle Beach - storms going right overhead 9-10" of rain, strong storm surge, lots of wind
OBX - hurricane force winds ~9" of rain mostly saturday night through sunday morning
Williamsburg - grazed maybe more rain just from the front, wont be bad probably 1" of rain saturday night might get some windy conditions though from the storm still but nothing to bad
Northern VA - some rain saturday afternoon from the front/trough passing through
Savannah Hilton Head - 8" + of rain hurricane force winds friday - saturday
Roanoke Rapids - ~4ish inches of rain, and some moderate winds still something to keep an eye on but you should be alright
Hilton Head - hunker down, ~10" of rain, serious storm surge concerns, very dangerous winds...
Norfolk/VA Beach area - ~3" of rain some heavy gusts too topping around 50 Mph
Comments
Thank you very much, now I don't have to watch the weather channel this week. Great job. I remember the TA&M in a hurricane, we will be just fine.
OY Vey - just finished moving into a new house just inland from Hilton Head
We'll see how well the builder did and good the building code is
Hopefully I won't need to find out how the insurance carrier is
Hope you got separate policies for wind, hurricane and flood down here?
thanks
Yep I'm in favor of getting good insurance for several reasons and am well covered there.
The only downside is that they were supposed to install the generator next week.
Having been without electricity for a week after Opal I've always had a plan B for power
Hope you're all squared away with the family-
As ready as we can be. We are far enough 1.3 miles from the ocean to not have to worry about storm surge and I got generator and supplies earlier this week.
Good luck, Fireman. We'll be thinking of you all down there in the low country.
I'm 250 yds from the May River, and ~20' above mean Tide I fully expect the surge up my street hopefully not at the house
I know many of my neighbors will be flooded
Thinking about heading down mid next week to survey the mess
I got out of Bluffton about noon today.
I feel like I just read a French article. Thanks for the info
Agreed. I hereby nominate the adoption of "Weather French" as eshiben5's TKP title
Hey, he's his own man, not a variation of another. I vote for Weather Lord.
I can't wait to watch Giftory next week.
So what you're saying is Bud's D pushed it back out to sea
certainly will handle it better than chiziks bendy D
Wait, is he like a duck or something? I wonder how his wife feels about that.
bendy D
Nah, Sam Rogers stared it down.
just stumbled onto this too, thats hurricane matthew
damn thing looks like it's grinning
Harambe?
too soon
That looks like Skeletor's pet dinosaur.
Very creepy.
So, can you confirm that we will definitely be playing football this Saturday, October 8, at 3:30pm in Chapel Hill? But we should probably expect it to be as wet as '09 Miami?
give me another 8 or so hours i might do another 3 AM forecast update tonight when the latest batch of data comes through currently occupying myself writing a lit review which....TOTALLY sucks
Well take your time. But make sure it's done by 4 AM.
Sounds like work timelines.
Take your time, what will it take to get it done faster?
Thanks for making me read the entire thing in the voice of Mr. Poopybutthole, you glipglop.
I squanch you
This weather report makes me want to get schwifty
Is rain good or bad? They love to pass but have pretty good RB's and ran all over us last year. 250 yds rushing if I recal and 200yds passing. Flip side, our offense seems to be better in the pass right now. Run is averaging below national average in yards per carry.
Someone convince me rain is good.
Rain makes corn. Corn makes whiskey. Whiskey makes my baby feel a little frisky. Rain is a good thing.
I feel like I would be more comfortable if they were trying to run the ball more against us. I think our D-line and linebackers can hold up over lengthy drives and force some punts or field goals. If Trubisky has a huge game, IMO we will be hurting. Just my opinion. I've been pretty confident about this game all year though. I think we win regardless of how they choose to attack us. We are the best defense they've seen thus far and they will definitely struggle at times. Their D is plain not good and our Offense is very capable this year.
Exactly particularly if elijah hood is out. Their read option game is not as good this year (as much as people complained about williams he was a great read option qb) and I trust bud and the dline to shut them down a lot more than uncs suspect rush D to shut down McMillan and evans. Likewise I still question some of fedoras gameday decisions
FINAL FORECAST UPDATE!!!!
Looks like the final line is falling between what the GFS and the EURO were doing. The storm is hugging the coast a little bit more, taking less of a straight shot up into the Carolinas (bad news for people along the coast) as far as game time I fully expect us to get some wind and rain during the game its probably going to be a pretty messy and sloppy game. Most of my original forecasts will probably still hold up. Interestingly once it gets pushed out to sea it lingers around for a short period of time loops a little bit and then gets pushed out to the atlantic further. I doubt it will completely loop around and hit Florida again like people were concerned about.
Regardless I'm pretty sure this forecast will hold up, and you'll see hurricane tracks popping up early tomorrow afternoon...frankly probably by the time i wake up tomorrow. Also sorry i broke deadline nobody ever said whether it was 3 ET or CT but i was going by CT, which i guess makes this a 4 AM deadline. Sorry for letting everyone down
I'll keep everyone updated if things change and with the latest model data and info as it comes out as well as live pictures/videos if things get scary. Stay safe out there hokies!
Sam Rogers has two eyes.
And neither one induces calm.
4 AM weather update?
It's going to be wet.
*drool*
eshiben.... Love what you do, but I am going to have to disagree with the conclusion here. Was looking at some of the maps coming out of the NWS here in Raleigh last night/this morning and I'm not quite sure its going to be as bad as expected. The last one I saw showed that the band between getting 1 inch and 2 inches cutting between Durham and Raleigh for Saturday, and the storm track is still trending further South. Weather.com is showing that the storm should be moving out of the area starting on Saturday, with a decent chance of it being gone by kickoff, and when I cross reference with NWS and Weather Underground, the total rainfall predicted for Saturday in Chapel Hill, the majority of which will fall in the early hours of the morning, is about 1.2 inches in total.
Its actually looking like the weather for the tailgate and game might actually turn out to be pretty nice. If UNC's field has good drainage, weather might not have an impact on the game
You do realize that 2" of rain in a 3 hour period is really heavy rain right? Yeah we wont be getting a direct hit but a rain band plus some heavier winds from a hurricane (30 mph gusts) are enough to make this a very sloppy game
I'm not seeing rainfalls that heavy at all right now. I'm seeing 1.74" for all day Friday and 1.3" for all day Saturday for Chapel Hill. Nowhere near as concentrated as what you're saying
And im not entirely sure where the NWS or weather.com are gettinf the 1.3 inches of rain friday, agree to disagree I suppose but regardless it will be rainy and windy during the game I think we can agree there
Besides I believe a vast majority of the rain will be from about 6 am to 6 pm which...unfortunately is game time
I think we can all agree that there is a 100% chance of weather in Chapel Hill Saturday.
eshiben, I was planning on driving from Hampton to Chapel Hill the morning of Saturday and drive back Sunday around noon. Is this a bad idea?
You will go and you will be loud
Come on eshiben, I need an answer. All people with orange and maroon glasses piss off for now :-P I'm only stressing because I'm bringing a non Hokie with me and I want him to have a good time.
Please
DON'T LEAVE A BROTHER HANGING ESHIBEN
TOTES missed this i am sooooo sorry, depends what time you're thinking about leaving, if you leave by say 6-8 you should be good just face some moderate rain off and on but if you're trying to get there right at kickoff id be prepared to face some heavier rains in the drive-in. Bring a poncho and when heading back Sunday if you wanna completely avoid rain try to leave around noon and you should be mostly fine
He means when heading back sunday.
I assume you not make the trip just to leave town 3.5 hours before kickoff.
Good catch, edited
Then, I will go and be loud. Thank you!
Damn right.
As a poor college student the money spent on tickets for the weekend will not go to waste. No matter what the weather is like, i'll be there for the game.
As a person who hates wasting money, I will be there for this game!
As a person who acquired 4 tickets for a total cost of $15, I will be there because I like to yell for the Hokies.
I like the cut of your jib, sir.
I will be driving up from Wilmington, NC Saturday morning to Chapel Hill and back Saturday evening.
And yes, I will be loud.
What's a jib?
A type of sail on a sailing vessel.
I'm not falling for this again.
The correct response is:
"HAHAHAHAHA...Promote that man."
Is the poop deck really what I think it is?
That old saw? OK, I'll see meself out.
I hate you.
As a person who has some sweet rain gear, and knows that scalpers will be dropping tix like hot cakes on Saturday, I MAY be there.
I'm also a person who has a wife who doesn't think its a good idea, and as this person, I need to keep softening up said wife for a Bro trip to the ACCCG IF the Hokies win the Coastal.
As a student that had plans on Saturday but those have suddenly disappeared, I'm on the hunt for tickets.
edit: I found some in the Hokies section -- I'll be there yelling my head off in the rain!
Just go. It will be raining tickets. 100% Chance.
Yeah...if your wife thinks it's a good idea.
From the NWS Raleigh office:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
943 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. RESULTANT RAINFALL OF 2 TO
4 INCHES...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ON
SATURDAY...MAY DOWN SOME TREES IN SATURATED SOILS.
NOAA website is saying 3/4 to 1 inch of rain on Saturday for Chapel Hill proper however. Hard to forecast this stuff until it's right on top of you I think
edit: NOAA has updated to say 1-2 inches on Saturday
That's true! Just thought I would share the hazardous weather outlook.
Exactly. There's 30 miles between Raleigh and Chapel Hill. Its certainly looking like Raleigh is going to get some heavy rain during this thing, but it looks like Chapel Hill itself could be spared from the really bad stuff.
There is a tight gradient in rainfall totals. I just wouldn't be surprised if Chapel Hill ended up with 4 inches of rain..
When you find a way to accurately forecast mesoscale stuff days in advance let NOAA and the NWS know because thatll be worth a TON of money that stuff is really hard to forecast in advance. Think about it how difficult is it to forecast where a tornado will occur days in advance. A rain band is the same scale
As a professional weather guy, maybe you could answer a question that I've had for awhile.,
When forecasting wind/rain impacts from hurricanes, does the NHC/NOAA tend to err on the side of worst case scenario since 2005/Katrina?
Look, I'm going by exactly what I'm seeing from NWS and Weather.com and they're showing the outer edge of the storm skirting close to Raleigh. From experience on having lived through these storms numerous times over the years having lived here my whole life, those models account for where they expect the outer rain bands to reach. Sure, they could go further out, but they could also retract closer to the eye. But I've also known these models to tend to err towards being more cautious and predicting it to be on the worse side of the averages they're seeing to encourage the people in the affected areas to be more cautious and properly prepared.
I'm preparing for rain this weekend. But I'm not expecting it to be 2003 Texas A&M or 2009 Miami levels of bad during the game.
Long term weather forecasts: because saying "we have no flipping clue" is bad for ratings.
Alright and I'm saying the NWS has been wrong before, as have I. The national weather service has to fight with an arm tied behind their back, I've said this numerous times. If they jump out and say severe chance of heavy precipitation and it doesnt rain the general public gets FURIOUS. Trust me I've seen them on the days where they're off by a tenth of an inch of rain and farmers and the public aren't pleased.
Also I would not call forecasts models. Models are numerical mathematical programs that overlay map data and input data from observations. They're mathematical and cannot err on either side of caution or risk. Forecasters must take these numerical outputs at what they're worth because theres so much variability in the atmosphere it cant just be "correct" or "incorrect" each model is better at observing different things, so its the job of a forecaster to understand these bias and accurately forecast the weather. Problem is due to public outcry and cry wolf syndrome a lot of forecasters cannot go all in on risky things for fear of public backlash and people never listening to them again. I mean look no further than Bill Belicheck saying two years ago they're "almost always wrong". That perception is real, but the facts are wrong considering how accurate forecasters typically are in a short window, that said there is some risk management in this as well. Meteorologists seem a little sluggish on pulling the trigger on calls (I've said this multiple times in the past) as to not lose people.
Not saying it will happen, but arguing over 30 miles range when we're talking about a hurricane multiple days out is a pretty silly argument to have, agree to disagree at this point. The main thing im concerned about is people coming down expecting the hurricane to miss us. IT WONT, I've said this and been on team "its gonna rain" for a while now even when people disagreed with me on the other thread. I'm not forecasting the eye to be right on top of us nor have I ever, that being said do not be surprised at all if a rain band comes out and smacks us during the game. Theres a very real chance that could happen, and a pretty good one at that
So you don't think it's going to do this? In Florida next week, rather not be drenched the whole time!
Them hurricanes... they'll get after yah.
That prediction has it pushing even further south at its apex than they were predicting this morning. If this trough from the north continues to push down and hold it back, it could conceivably miss us.
Put it this way, 48 hours ago, the prediction had the eye sitting over Raleigh at kickoff. Now, this prediction has the eye at the apex of the ribbon shape right at 2pm on Saturday, with the outer edges of the rainfall skirting about 30-40 miles inland from Raleigh, right around Chapel Hill.
Don't get me wrong, anyone at the coast, you're gonna get hit regardless, so get out while you can, but its not looking as bad for the Triangle area as it did earlier.
Eye over Raleigh? Where are you getting this from dude? I never once said that... two days ago it was getting pushed out to the Atlantic
I do recall a track map from NOAA on Tuesday that had it going right through eastern NC, Raleigh- Greenville.
Fair enough but I strongly disagreed with that forecast never thought itd come that far inland that said the guys and gals at noaa know their stuff
Yep, I think the 11am or 2pm tracks on Tuesday from the national services had it going right over Raleigh. Its been bending into this predicted loop ever since.
I think it hovers offshore but doesn't make landfall and not close enough in proximity to really do damage. Might get some outflow and some rain but not a lot
Matthew was thinking of going to party further up the East Coast, but then his girl was like "Hey! I got a private cabana in the Yucatan for just the two of us."
Leaving Jacksonville Florida around 3 tomorrow? Good idea? Or bad idea? Lol. Coming up for the game. Hopefully it'll be further up the coast in ga of sc by then?
3 AM or PM, also depends if you're a hurricane chaser, you might be driving with this thing all the way up the coast, I'd try to be leaving MUCH earlier. if you're leaving at 3 PM you're leaving when the worst part of the storm will be basically overhead
Left Jax at 10 this am barely made it out before they closed all the bridges (for those of you don't know you can't get out of Jax without going on a bridge in some direction) hope everyone back home stays safe and I come back to a home. But for now it's go Hokies!!!!!
Wife's family has decided to stay put in Beaufort, SC area. They live waterfront up the river from Hilton Head. Will this be a dangerous situation for them, or just annoying? Trying to decide how much of a pain to be, as I do enjoy getting to fish down there and would like to stay on good terms...
your wife's family is in for one hell of a storm, I think Hilton Head Island is going to see some significant damage out of this and that entire water front is going to be very flooded. I would be evacuating but thats just me, and traffic and evacuation routes are going to get more clogged the closer we get to the event
I'd be worried that water would get pushed up Port Royal Sound something fierce Beaufort could get hammered
RIP Florida-LSU
what about the six pick?! but in all seriousness im kind of surprised florida didnt move it to LSU, that just screams STUBBORN
There are reports coming out that LSU offered to host and Florida flat out said no.
yeah exactly what I'm saying stubborn on Florida's part, good luck rescheduling it I suppose, the crazy part is the Miami game probably wont get canceled if im hedging my bets. wouldnt be shocked for them to walk out of this with 1-2" of rain and some VERY heavy wind, I'm really curios to see what happens with that game
I wonder if the conferences will start to make rules that require this.... particularly if Florida goes 5-1 and leaves out Tennessee at 6-2.
Is UF missing two games?
Looks like we're down to a Five Pick this week.
Also seeing where LSU offered to move to Sunday, and SEC said no.
edited to add some tweets backing the story up...
What about the option of LSU/Florida on November 19, and allowing Presbyterian and South Alabama to play each other? Might cut down on some of the payouts.
From what I understand, it's all about the money. Florida didn't stand to gain any money from playing at LSU, but will be the recipient of an insurance check for not playing due to the circumstances.
At least that's what I've read a couple times today.
Where can I send pics of the storm when it gets here in Murrells Inlet? You interested?
VERY much so, but please be really careful. I'd rather you be safe and boarded up in a freaking bunker than trying to get me pictures.
@hokieshibe is my twitter (totes stole that name from my brother)
Jerk
This guy stole that name from your brother too! Talk about a jerk!
Maybe Suck Bang and Blow will wash away. Save Flows and Dead Dog though!
So with 1"-2" of rain expected. I'm curious to know how much rain we had at some previous games to compare. A&M 03 , BC 07 , Miami 09 & the Marshall 3OT game a few years ago.
Isabel against texas A&M 2003 (Sept. 18th) - wind 33 MPH Gusts (NWS) rainfall 1-2" (Kevin Myatt Roanoke Times) mostly because i didnt buy the .77 with 30 winds from Wunderground but that might not be as unreasonable as i initially thought
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/isabel-wasn-t-that-bad-in-southwest-virgi...
BC 2007 (October 25th) 1.41" of precipitation wind gusts - 20 MPH (more sustained around 10 that night)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBCB/2007/10/25/DailyHistor...
Miami 2009 (sept 26th) - 1.74" of precipitation and 4 MPH wind gusts
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBCB/2009/9/26/DailyHistory...
Marshall 2011 (september 21st) - .79" sustained wind around 4 MPH
https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBCB/2013/9/21/DailyHistory...
I realize rain gauges arent the best for recording weather buuuuut its the best ive got, this data is recorded data from the airport
Awesome stuff... Looks like it will be most similar to the BC game maybe Miami. I was at both & had a blast. Thanks for the info!
of course, great question. It will probably be a little windier than either of those two, I think itll be closer to the isabel experience with a little heavier rain
Awesome stuff and similar to the BC game should never be used in the same sentence.
I can assure you that you did not have a blast at the BC game unless...ARE YOU MATT RYAN????
Look at that picture. That was taken during a miserable rainy game that should have never existed (at least I've decided this given that our images are small and sometimes difficult to make out). He chose a username that won't tip it off. And the birthdays - 5/29/1984 vs 5/17/1985. He kept the month the same, close to the same age and just changed the day of the month.
Matt Ryan confirmed.
No way you can mention his name, twice no less, without someone invoking the obvious...''FUCK MATT RYAN!!!!"
Edit: And yes, I was at that game.
If you say his name 13 times into a bathroom mirror, does he appear and rip your guts out like he did that night?
I don't have what it takes to find out
I think the only person that hates Matt Ryan more than us right now is Bene Benwikere
No, doesn't take 13 times. Just twice. Twice at the end. Twice, and burned into my psyche forever. Twice, dammit.
I. Can't. Wait. For. This. Game. Old school jersey over rain gear. Probably. Old school 'We Declare This Hokie Country' tshirt with jorts. Hopefully. Tailgating with fellow Hokies and losing my voice. One. Hundred. Percent. Chance.
See you guys tomorrow night
I won't be there, but I've had this one circled for a while now. I can't sit still. I hope it's Miami 2009 all over again.
You can never trust these forecasts.
National weather service just upgraded their forecast tomorrow. 2" of rain during the game an inch before and an inch after. Expect a REALLY sloppy game, weather wise this might be the most ugly game weve ever played in
Yep, phone just blew up at work with a Hurricane Warning for Wilmington, NC
Be safe everyone!
I trust our ability to run it down their throats over their ability to run it down ours. My only concern is whether or not our guys will hold on to speed option pitches.
Most ugly game we ever played? Only if it's 0-0 at the end of regulation.
Update from my friends and family in Brevard County. Brevard County was pretty much spared any mass devastation. Power was present all night in many locations and is already being restored. There is flooding and Melbourne turned the water off last night, but the flooding is not severe. A couple houses on beachside burnt to the ground (unfortunate).
Amazing, it missed them by just... that ... much.
Here is a quick video of the surf in Melbourne Beach this AM:
Mel Beach Surf, 10/7/2016, Early AM.
I hope Daytona and Jax is spared as well, but they may get it worse. This bastard needs to start turning East. Prayers for Georgia and South Carolina coastal residents.
So the surfers will be out tomorrow. Done that before.
They're already on it! See below link. Did this many times, I do miss it.
Surfing Satellite Beach 10/7/2016
Used to do that body surfing.
That's legit!
damn...so will game be played?
via GIPHY
St Augustine checking in...blessed and thankful to be safe and dry. We have a generator, portable A/C, and food, and no apparent damage
We decided to stay even though we were in Zone B...I know.
I would guess we had a 3 to 4 foot surge here. We are across the street from a tidal marsh but the house is new and built and elevated above code.
Water made it to the yard but didn't threaten the house
Our big tees are also still standing...not sure how. Some big limbs down close by and a tree or two
Neighbors not so fortunate. Next door house flooded as did the car they left behind. wished I'd had his keys
May not see the game. Counting on y'all to take up slack
Good Lord, I was wondering about you. I saw some videos of Flagler College that were pretty sickening - storm surge just flowing right through. I saw a post where you moved down that way.
I talked my son into leaving JAX and head to Tally for the weekend. His house is surrounded by giant trees. May have to head up there to help with damage next week.
Glad to see your ok. Your someone I knew was down there and was hoping you would post on the check in thread. But since you posted everything it's all good. My buddy with JFRD says they are slammed with calls and Jax beach is getting slammed.
Good for you there!
FPL says 75% of their customers in St Johns Co are without power
Being where we are right now without harm makes it seem Like we made the right move; but we should have had a better plan and hauled ass...
You're not the first person to come to that conclusion after a hurricane comes ashore. Glad you are ok, and hopefully you won't have to shovel fish out of your driveway when things subside.
Shibe, thanks for keeping us updated throughout this.
Wasn't sure the game would even be played.
Igotchu fam! Let's go celebrate and get drunk as hell celebrating
So one last update for the day. We lost power when the back end of the storm came through, us along with 75% of the grand Strand have no power and won't for 2-7 days. Please pray for Mrs. Fireman.