Halfwits and Wagers: Taking the Heels to School (For Real This Time)

In years past, the Hokies have taken advantage of their midseason bye week to get healthy and address their flaws, all in an effort to right a wayward ship down the stretch. Four games into the 2016 season and this year's Hokies team was riding sky high into the bye week, healthy and full of confidence.

As the Hokies drive head first into the meat of their conference schedule, they will be tasked with slowing down one of the most potent offensive attacks in the ACC. Armed with a trio of dangerous wideouts, a two-headed monster in the backfield and a formidable signal caller, Larry Fedora's bunch look poised to continue their winning ways against the good guys.

With an enigmatic hurricane churning offshore, a matchup between dangerous offenses suddenly becomes all the more interesting. Which team has the upper hand when playing with a greased ham? How much do UNC fans actually care about their ranked football team? Does Larry Fedora continue to wear his visor in the rain?

To the (fake) lines!

With the impending hurricane, Over/Under 14.5 times @VT_Football tweets out storm-related song references.

Brian: Oh please.

We're rooting for #HurricaneMatthew to continue heading "Wide Right!"#BeatUNC pic.twitter.com/4q6Tu95bii— VT Football (@VT_Football) October 5, 2016

It began on Wednesday morning. It's not a song reference, but it means that weather puns are on the radar (BOOM, weather pun). As jokey as this line may sound, it's really in play. And honestly, we may see this number hit by Friday morning. It seems implausible, but here's what I came up with off the top of my head:

• Against the Wind
• Purple Rain (which will obviously be turned into a Maroon Rain joke)
• Rock You Like a Hurricane (duh)
• Walking on Sunshine (if it doesn't storm)
• Have You Ever Seen the Rain?
• Let it Rain
• A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall
• November Rain (it's not November, sure. But it's a Guns N' Roses song, so it doesn't matter)
• Storm My Day (again, AC/DC. It's in the wheelhouse.)

Pierson: Over. I know many of you are focused on preparing for Hurricane Matthew, but consider this your warning. It's almost a given that we will see an image of an XM Radio this week, along with a cheesy line saying that, "UNC is about to get THUNDERSTRUCK by the #Hokies!"

Over/Under: 9.5 catches for UNC wideout Ryan Switzer.

Brian: Under. Bud Foster traditionally does a great job taking away what the opponent wants to do offensively. Switzer is QB Mitch Trubisky's favorite target by far — he has 47 receptions on the year, the player with the second most has 19. They'll look to get the senior involved early and often, but re-read French's film review of the ECU game. They've already done a great job limiting the chances opponents get by throwing underneath, a place where Switzer thrives.

Also, UNC averages only 23 minutes a game in time of possession. What happens if they're down two scores early? Will Larry Fedora still have the patience to dink and dunk? Or will they turn towards Bug Howard and Mack Hollins on the outside? If they do, it could take away passes towards Switzer.

Pierson: Bud Foster's defense will look to limit tailbacks Elijah Hood and TJ Logan early, but I believe Ryan Switzer is far-and-away the biggest threat facing the Hokies this week. Dangerous in space and averaging 9.4 catches per game, Switzer has the ability to take high-percentage throws and turn them into big plays. Last week in Tallahassee he was seemingly wide open on every play, finishing with 158 yards on 14 catches.

Operating under the assumption that this game will be played in wet conditions, I expect to see a healthy dose of Switzer in the short passing game. We all saw what shifty James Summers was able to do in the open field against the Hokies last season. If the wind and rain are factors, I expect to see Switzer used as a Wes Welker-type from the outset to keep Mitch Trubisky in rhythm. I'm taking the over.

Who Accounts for More Total Yards: Mitch Trubisky or Jerod Evans?

Brian: Evans was my initial answer, but I'll go with Trubisky instead. Basically, my logic is that we know Fedora will abandon the run at first sign of trouble. Supertalent Elijah Hood only averages 13 carries a game. His backup, T.J. Logan, only averages 7 (though he'd start for many other teams in the ACC.) This means Trubisky will stand back in a (hopefully) collapsing pocket and spin it as many times as possible. More opportunities means more probable yardage for the UNC QB.

Pierson: Trubisky has been on fire the past two weeks, helping lead the Tar Heels to consecutive come-from-behind victories against ACC foes. Against defensive guru Pat Narduzzi's Panther defense, Trubisky went 35-46 with 453 yards passing and 5 TDs. Last week at FSU, Trubisky topped 400 yards once again on 31-38 passing and 3 TDs. Larry Fedora's high-octane attack has become increasingly dangerous through the air thanks to a trio of talented wideouts and Trubisky's heady play behind center.

But in the immortal words of Mr. Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friend!" Despite averaging 58 less total yards per game, I think that a sloppy game benefits Evans more than Trubisky for three reasons:

1. Evans' dual-threat ability gives him an added dimension over Trubisky;
2. The Hokies defense is significantly better than their counterparts; and
3. I believe (somewhat blindly) that Justin Fuente and Brad Cornelsen will be a little bit more creative finding ways to exploit a vulnerable Carolina defense.

Over/Under: 75.5 plays run by the Virginia Tech offense.

Brian: Over. Look back at UNC's time of possession statistic, and you can see an area that Justin Fuente can exploit in order to control the game. The Hokies need to try to keep the ball as long as possible to keep the Tar Heel defense off the field, and that means an increase in plays.

Pierson: Opponents are averaging 75.4 plays per game against the Heels. The Virginia Tech offense is averaging just under 77 plays per game, including two blow-out wins that saw them utilize a predictably run-heavy attack in the fourth quarter. Give me the over.

Who Finishes With More Receiving Yards: Ryan Switzer or Isaiah Ford?

Brian: Though the Heels struggle more against the ground, opposing receivers have still had more than their share of chances to make plays. Georgia's Isaiah McKenzie had six catches for 122 yards in week one, and Florida State's Jesus Wilson caught nine balls for 125 yards.

The Hokies aren't shy about making Isaiah Ford priority number one on offense, and I don't expect that to change Saturday. I expect the junior will have enough targets and make enough plays to set Chapel Hill on fire by game's end.

Pierson: Ford will be his usual active self in the passing game. But I expect Cornelsen to attack UNC in a variety of ways, combining his various weapons with the weather conditions to create mismatches all over the field.

I'm taking Switzer because of the reasons stated above. In less-than-ideal conditions, his ability to make people miss in space gives him the upper hand in my book.

Over/Under: 204.5 rushing yards for the Hokies offense.

Brian: Under. Outside of two electric runs (Travon McMillian's 69 yarder against Tennessee, and Jerod Evans' ankle breaker against ECU), the ground game has sputtered. McMillian, in particular, hasn't found his footing. The Hokies' best running back averages just 2.97 yards per carry if you take out the one play in Bristol. UNC's struggled with the run on defense, but I expect a balanced attack that'll lean towards the pass and the explosive options on the outside.

Pierson: Opponents average close to 237 yards per game on the ground against the Heels. While the Hokies do not have a Nick Chubb or Dalvin Cook in their backfield, they average 195.5 yards per game on the ground. If there is one thing we have all learned through four games, it is that the offensive staff has worked hard to create and exploit matchups and tendencies. With an extra week to prepare for UNC, I would be shocked if Fuente & Co. didn't try to take advantage of Carolina's deficiencies against the run. The Hokies have the talent to win games on the ground; all that's needed is for them to choose to do so (oh, and execute...that's important too). Give me the over.

Matchup Over/Under: 62 total points

Brian: OVER. This one's so easy, I'm actually going to bet on it. North Carolina's defense isn't good, which could be a problem against a Hokie offense that's averaged over 50 points in the last two games. And on the other side, the Heels will still put up points on Tech, no matter how well the defense plays. Trubisky and company have too much talent on that side of the ball to be held to anything less than three touchdowns.

Buckle up y'all, this one may be a shootout.

Pierson: When I first saw this line I burst out laughing. It feels so underestimated that I've begun to worry that Vegas knows something I don't. You've got two teams that average a shade over 40 points per game. Both offenses possess the ability to beat teams on the ground and through the air. What am I missing here? Everyone should be taking the over here. It's not even up for discussion.

Spread: North Carolina (-2.5)

Brian: I hate myself for saying this, but I believe in the Hokies. I've tried my hardest not to get sucked in after the last two games, but I own a one way ticket on the hype train. I think Fuente and Cornelsen's offense will only get better, and it's a lot easier for Foster's defense to play aggressively when they know the other side will score. I'm picking the Hokies to win, 38-31.

Pierson: I'm taking the Hokies OUTRIGHT this week. I've thought a lot about two key factors in this week's game since I watched UNC's last second victory over the Noles:

1. UNC feels primed for a letdown game on the heels of consecutive come-from-behind wins (see what I did there?); and
2. Both offenses may be dangerous, but the Hokies defense holds a major advantage over their Carolina counterparts.

This game could be difficult to watch, filled with highs and lows. Every exciting play will almost surely be matched with an equally frustrating letdown. In the end, I think the Hokies edge out the Tar Heels by making more key plays and less ill-timed mistakes. It's a long season, and I have a gut feeling that Carolina is about to get hit by that harsh reality head-on.