Fresh off their stunning 37-35 upset of Florida State, No. 17 North Carolina is set to host No. 25 Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon in Kenan Stadium. But despite what promises to be a key Coastal Division matchup, all eyes have been glued to the weather forecast this week as Hurricane Matthew bears down on the Eastern seaboard.
For now it appears as if Chapel Hill will be spared from the worst of Matthew, but conditions could still get sloppy in the Tar Heel state. To get some first-hand insight on Carolina before the rain hits, I spoke with Andrew Carter — an absolute must-read for all things UNC — of The News & Observer.
JC: The Tar Heels took down Florida State in spectacular fashion a week ago, drilling a 55-yard field goal as time expired to shock the 'Noles in Tallahassee. Two questions: what were you thinking as the ball left Nick Weiler's right foot, and where does this win rank in terms of significance for the program since Larry Fedora took over in 2012?
AC: I was thinking it looked good. It's difficult to tell from that particular vantage point, high up in the press box, but it certainly looked good off Weiler's foot – that it had the distance. The only question was whether it was on the right line, and when the officials gave the signal the UNC celebration began immediately, with Weiler sprinting down the field doing the tomahawk chop.
The significance of the win will depend in part on what happens with Florida State the rest of the way. If the Seminoles fade and finish with a relatively mediocre record, it takes some of the luster away from what UNC accomplished. Regardless, though, a win at Florida State is a win at Florida State. It'd been five years since an ACC team beat the Seminoles at Doak Campbell.
And it'd been 20 years since UNC won on the road against a team as highly-ranked as Florida State. You can make the argument that it was UNC's most significant win during Fedora's tenure. The one in overtime at Virginia Tech last year, though, is difficult to top because UNC clinched the Coastal Division that day. But this was huge for UNC, too. It had the feel of a program-turning victory.
JC: Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky has been excellent this fall, erasing any doubts as to whether he could step into the shoes of Marquise Williams. Their skill-sets are clearly different, but how would you assess Trubisky's performance through five weeks?
AC: He has been pretty spectacular since an underwhelming debut in a loss against Georgia. Even in that game, though, Trubisky wasn't necessarily bad. He just didn't come close to playing up to expectations – both his own and those that have surrounded him for so long while he served as Williams' back-up in recent seasons.
For years, UNC fans and those of us who cover the team had heard a lot about Trubisky's arm strength, accuracy and decision-making, and those attributes have been on full display the past several weeks. After that shaky debut, he has been incredibly accurate. And even with that start against Georgia, he's completing 76 percent of his passes and is on pace for 4,100 passing yards.
He has thrown for more than 400 yards in each of the past three weeks, and he completed at least 81.6 percent of his passes in two of those three weeks. The game that didn't happen, against Pitt, he led a crazy final drive in which he completed three consecutive fourth-down passes, including the game-winner to Bug Howard with two seconds left.
So, yes ... Trubisky has been pretty good. You're starting to hear some Heisman buzz about him.
JC: After a breakout sophomore campaign, junior tailback Elijah Hood has started out a touch slower this fall. Is that simply a byproduct of sharing carries with T.J. Logan, or are there concerns about Hood's production (or number of touches) in Chapel Hill?
AC: Larry Fedora said he expects Hood to play on Saturday, but Fedora has been known to equivocate when it comes to injured players and their status. It's a fun wrinkle covering a Fedora-coached team that you can never be too sure whether a guy will really return from an injury or whether he'll still be out. Fedora likes it this way, and players just sort of smile when you ask them about it.
But to answer your question, no, I don't think there are any concerns about Hood's production. He hasn't been as prolific as he was last year, but the offense is different than it was last year, too, with Fedora and the offensive staff placing more trust in Trubisky's passing ability.
That's not to say that Marquise Williams was a poor passer. He wasn't. It's just that they believe that much in Trubisky, and with UNC throwing it as often as it has, that's going to limit Hood's carries (though he has about the same as he did through five games last season).
The real difference for Hood, so far, is that he played a really strong run defense against Pitt. And then played only a half at Florida State before he left the game amid that injury. I think Hood will be fine and, as you mentioned, UNC has received some good work out of T.J. Logan, who is averaging more than 7 yards per carry. At times Logan has been as valuable offensively as anybody.
JC: While the Tar Heels' passing attack has been prolific thus far, the strength of the Hokies' defense lies in the secondary. Do you think Fedora will rely more on the running game against Bud Foster's defense, or will the Heels challenge the Hokies through the air early and often Saturday afternoon? (Follow-up question: how is Ryan Switzer still at North Carolina?)
AC: I don't see UNC changing its pass-first approach all that much on Saturday. Fedora has always been a big believer in doing what you do well and forcing the other team to stop it. Clearly, UNC has been a better passing team than running, and it'd be uncharacteristic of Fedora to emphasize the run more because he's afraid of the Virginia Tech secondary.
That said, I'd expect the passing offense to look different and adjust to the circumstances. UNC, for instance, passed downfield a lot more against Pittsburgh than Florida State, because the Pitt defense allowed those opportunities, putting its cornerbacks – and linebackers, at times – in single-coverage situations that UNC thought it could exploit. Trubisky took advantage.
Florida State made a point of taking away the deep pass. Trubisky still threw for more than 400 yards because the Seminoles often left the middle of the field open. UNC has a lot of options in the passing game. Bug Howard and Mack Hollins can stretch the field vertically. Ryan Switzer, who has caught 30 passes the past two weeks, has been virtually uncoverable out of the slot, where he's often found himself matched up with a linebacker. And then Austin Proehl, who doesn't get a lot of attention, is probably UNC's best route-runner. I'm interested to see how Foster tries to limit UNC's passing game. Outside of the season-opener against Georgia, when Trubisky's nerves got the best of him, no defense has come close to stopping UNC's passing offense.
And yes, Switzer seems like he's been in school for seven years.
JC: Gene Chizik's defense has struggled at times this fall, but they've been just good enough in each of the Heels' two conference wins. Who are the playmakers on Chizik's unit, and how can Carolina begin to see improvement on the defensive side of the ball?
AC: A big problem with the defense is that there haven't been many playmakers, really. Even the guys UNC felt good about entering the season – cornerbacks Des Lawrence and M.J. Stewart, in particular – haven't made all that many plays. The Tar Heels are without an interception, for instance. They've only forced three turnovers, which ranks 120th nationally.
But some guys to know would be Naz Jones, the defensive tackle who is the leader up front. He has been, by far, the best defensive lineman on a line that otherwise has struggled. The linebackers have been hit or miss, but they've been better lately. Andre Smith is probably the best player in that group.
It's not a defense that has a lot of big-name guys. The strength of it was supposed to be the secondary, but it hasn't exactly happened that way. That said, UNC has done some nice things, overall, defensively the past two weeks. It came up with some critical late-game stops against Pitt and then, against Florida State, held the Seminoles to some long early field goal attempts that they missed, which allowed the offense to build that 21-0 lead.
JC: The battle for the ACC Coastal promises to be an intriguing storyline over the next two months. Carolina and Miami are likely the early favorites, but Virginia Tech has impressed under first-year head coach Justin Fuente. How would you handicap the Coastal division race?
AC: After beating Florida State, I think UNC is the favorite. That game looked like a clear loss entering the season, and so winning it gives the Tar Heels a bit of a cushion that seemed unlikely. So right now, UNC is in the driver's seat of this thing. But it can change in a hurry. The Tar Heels could quickly find themselves 2-2 in the Coastal after the next two weeks ... but even if that happens UNC will be the favorites in its four remaining ACC games and have a great chance of finishing 6-2, which might be good enough.
That's why winning at Florida State was so big for these guys. Only one game, but it could have tremendous consequences, ultimately, in the standings. We'll have a lot better idea about this after the next two weeks. UNC is in the midst of its most difficult four-game stretch of the season (Pitt, at Florida State, Virginia Tech, at Miami). The Tar Heels are already 2-0 and if they can go 3-1 they'll have a great shot of repeating in the Coastal – unless Miami just never loses.
JC: Time to put you on the spot: who wins Saturday, and why?
AC: I think UNC gets it done. The Tar Heels have won in uncanny, wild, zany ways the past two weeks, pulling out last-second victories when defeat seemed imminent. You can say two things about that: That UNC was lucky and therefore is not as good as its record. Or that those kind of victories represent the kind of grit -- which is Fedora's buzzword -- a team needs to have a highly successful season.
I tend to think it's more the latter, partly because UNC did the same thing last year at Georgia Tech and then in overtime at Virginia Tech. The way UNC beat Pitt, and Florida State, has the potential to carry this team to big things, just as the victory at Georgia Tech did last year (UNC rallied from a 21-0 deficit that game). There's just a belief these guys have that they win under any circumstances. Unless Virginia Tech is leading by three touchdowns with two minutes remaining on Saturday, I won't believe UNC is out of it.
Beyond that, UNC's passing offense is rolling. As great as Foster is at what he does, I don't see the Tar Heels slowing down much offensively. Virginia Tech's offense will have its way at times against the UNC defense, but at least the Tar Heels know what's coming there – they practice against a similar offense every day. So I see the Tar Heels in another close one.
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Meaning Bud Foster's defense practices against a similar offense every day. Advantage: Bud. Disadvantage: Gene.
"I don't see the Tar Heels slowing down much offensively."
I expect him to predict a win (it's his team), but this (combined with a few other statements) seems a bit over confident when considering that this is the best D you have faced all season.
He seems to be overlooking the Hokies just a bit as they think about the mighty Hurricanes coming to town... I hope the team is doing the same thing.
In fairness to Andrew and the Heels, I'm feeling pretty damn confident myself. Let's go down there and dominate for 60 minutes.
They're playing AT Miami, but I agree that they're likely to at least be peeking ahead at that game.
WE GONNA KILL EM!!!!
I get UNC has played well this year but good gracious Andrew Carter is drinking on some STRONG UNC Kool-Aid
He definitely sounds like a big Carolina fan, not a reporter. A glass half-full kinda guy no doubt. I liked this one:
Unless Miami never loses? What about unless Virginia Tech never loses? He's already assuming the 1 in "3-1" is against Miami, but tomorrow will surely be a win for his Heels.
I know Andrew Carter isn't on the football team, but it sure validates the feeling that they're overlooking us over in Chapel Hill. It should be clear that this is a competitive matchup, so if UNC is already writing this off as a win that certainly helps our odds.
We have been mediocre for 3 straight seasons, TEND to lose the "big game", lost to them last year (at home), and we have only beaten BC and 2 lesser conference teams. UNC disrespecting is us EXPECTED. VT hasn't earned anyone's respect in long time and I can't wait for that to change. Until then, I think we should all just calm down with the "how can anyone not respect our 3 expected wins vs the 17th ranked team coming off a huge conference road win".
other than us beating them over 70% of the time over the last 15 or so years.
And I'm sure that was weighing heavy on their minds as they walked off of Lane with the win last year...
+ Many legs
well for the last several years we haven't even been winning most of the "expected wins" so
Hold on now, I didn't say anything like what you're implying. I'm of the opinion that our #25 ranking is a bit premature. UNC should have some swagger, they've been playing really well for the last 1.25 seasons.
What I'm saying is that this matchup has also been pretty even these last few years, and it would be silly to suggest that UNC has looked anything dominant against us even in our recent down years. We're 2-2 against each other the last 4 years, and all of those games were competitive. So no, I don't agree that it's expected for them to look past us, because the objective evidence points to two teams in a similar place.
Cautious optimism should be the appropriate mood for both teams at this point, but his prediction definitely
gave me the vibe he's feeling a lot more confident in the outcome than he should be.
It was always foolish to disrespect any team that has Bud Foster on its sideline, even when we were a .500 team. We might not have been good, but we always had a defense that could keep us in a game and give you a damn scare.
Now we have an offense that just put up an average of over 50 per game the last 2 games, and we still have Bud Foster on the sidelines. If you're still disrespecting us and overlooking us now, you're a damn fool, and you deserve the gut punch this VT squad is capable of giving you.
I don't think anyone should calm down at all. I understand we have been playing like an avg Joe team the past couple of years and what not but I don't get how we can use that as a meter for this current team. Yes, the pieces are the same for the most part from those years but we have a new guy moving those pieces around and making those big calls. Its pretty much a 180. The only thing that feels similar about this team is the defense and even that feels like it has a new and improved engine. Past players, mainly when listening to Huddlecast with Sean glennon and Cory holt, see a completely different VT squad as well. Though we should be catious cause we haven't "earned" the 25 ranking yet, we should still be super pumped!
I understand all these perspectives as VT Fans ourselves. Any other team can (and has every right) to look at our record in the last 3 years, as well as this year and make their own assessment. If I were UNC, I'd be feeling pretty damn good right now. I look forward to getting the respect we deserve, but imho, haven't earned yet.
Here's the thing... Sure UNC has a talented and prolific offense. Sure, even though the D isn't performing well they have some players. But the X-Factor in my opinion is coaching. UNC should have destroyed us last season, and they didn't. VT has a very good coaching staff, period (and that is the key difference here)... and some pretty good personnel to boot.
Larry Fedora has recruited well, but not great. He has a system that creates mismatches and piles up yards. But he has shown everyone that he is stubborn to a fault (See Elijah Hood). He doesn't make very good in-game adjustments and has a history of making some Mike Londonesque types of calls.
On top of all that, UNC has literally beaten NO ONE in recent memory (including a loss to a very average UGA team this season and a putrid USC East team last season, coupled with a massacre against Baylor... I could go on here) and there is no reason to think that Larry Fedora can do anything different this year. UNC has benefited largely from a very weak Coastal Division that, by the end of this season, will prove to be much stronger, at which point UNC will take its rightful place right in the middle of the division.
So yes, put me on the hype train for this week! And yes, paint me confused as to why people aren't seeing these things.
I think your coaching assessment is pretty subjective. Wasn't their talk about Whit considering Fedora for the job here? I think he has done a pretty good job at a school where football is not a top priority.
Also, winning in Tallahassee, even if this is a down year for FSU, is no easy task, Pitt is pretty solid this year, and they won 10 or 11 straight games last year before losing by a TD (I think) to Clemson.
See his record:
2012: 8-4 with the big win being VT? Miami? They lost to every ranked team they played.
2013: 6-6 with the big win being Pitt? They lost to every ranked team they played, but did beat Cinci. in a bowl game.
2014: 6-6 with the big win being GT? Pitt? Duke? They lost to every ranked team they played and then got blown out by Rutgers in a bowl game.
2015: 11-2 (by far his best year) with the big win being a close one to #23 Pitt. They lost to Clemson, but the game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate and they lost to a terrible USCE team to start the season. They finished it off by getting blown out by Baylor in a bowl game.
This isn't subjective, it's just who Larry Fedora is... It is who UNC is. A team that has benefited from playing teams in the weak Coastal Division. Every opportunity they have to win a big game, they simply don't (with the exception of #23 Pitt last year and FSU this year. But are we really calling those "big wins"?)
To add, you can speak with anyone close to the UNC program and they will tell you that Fedora is stubborn to a fault. And if you don't believe them, just watch a game. Why is one of the best RBs in the country only getting 13 carries per game? There are many things to list here. But my point is that there may be some subjectivity to my thoughts about Fedora, but the issues I bring up could certainly be used to support my claim that he/his staff is not as good as the staff at VT (and I understand that our staff has only been together for 4 games).
I have no idea if Whit was considering Fedora. If he would have moved in that direction, I would not have considered that a good move. I'm not saying he's done a poor job. I'm simply saying that coaching will be the X-factor this week. And I happen to think that particular caveat weighs heavily in the Hokies favor.
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How I imagine Joey's face had this been a face to face interview!
But, really I agree,, I don't see anything wrong at all with what the guy said. Should he have predicted a VT win? I'm starting to think many of us are drinking the maroon and orange Kool-Aid too much. But damn is it delicious.
It's the bourbon.
It's midnight and we are having rails
If he's drinking the UNC kool-aid, we're drinking the VT heroin. We haven't won a game away from Lane, and only have one in conference win. You realize those numbers next to the team names are like golf scores right? They are considered to be the better team in every state but Virginia. Personally, I don't think we should be ranked yet, but we are. That being said I do personally think we will win the game, and it will be sloppy and probably full of fumbles on both sides. Let's just hope we get some of them this time.
Please remove your Orange and Maroon glasses before talking to other fan bases. Especially when they do us a solid and give us an interview.
UNC better hope that rain drenches the forests of Chapel Hill, because Fuente is going to bring the fire again.
One of my favorite movies of all time!
You know a good napalm scene is just about as good as "that's what she said" joke!
Can we blaze up too, Andrew?
](https://postimg.org/image/pnkbxgo0j/))
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I don't know if that device does what you think it does
Dude I went to college in the 70s. Really?
College in the 70's, you say?
Did this guy even mention vt more than once during this whole convo? I've heard of counting your eggs before they hatch but holy moly what a homer!
Hopefully unc is looking past tech as much as this guy is and we can bring the tears to chapel hill this weekend.
Y'all need to calm the eff down. Andrew provided some damn good insight (for free and on his own time) on a very talented UNC squad, and pretty much every comment is "HE'S DRANKIN' THAT KOOL AID." No. Stop. There's a lot perspective in the Q&A that would have made for an intelligent discussion, but instead this thread is hot garbage. What's worse is the lack of intelligent discourse is trending on TKP, and that makes me sad.
True story Joe. Just getting all hot and bothered and excited for this game!
Perhaps the most intriguing storyline for this game is how two high power passing offenses will compete in the rain. I like to think our receivers are as athletic as Uncs but what better of a test than a hurricane bowl?!
This site loves to feel disrespected.
And call every other fan base delusional. But no, no one would say the same of us.
I try not to partake in the "we're better than the other fanbase" arguments as much as possible, but I feel like it's all part of the fun for most people. I'd hope that not too many people actually take it personally when another fanbase jabs them.
At the end of the day, it's just football. If you have to be delusional about something in life, football is a good choice because it means jack squat at the end of the day (as a fan).
Relevant:
You've never met an SEC fan. Specifically the type that never actually went to that school. At best they went to a small college most people haven't heard of, but more likely they got their GED while doing time.
Ha! I was only referring to ourselves. There are definitely other fanbases with a larger ass-to-mouth ratio for holes.
TOO LATE
This thread went exactly the direction I was hoping for!
From zero to eatin' da poo poo in only 5 posts. I feel proud to be part of such an achievement.
EXACTLY. Buddy of mine went to Hampden Sydney. Chose Auburn as his team. Can't go near him without hearing that stupid "S-E-C! S-E-C!" chant
Fam.
Agreed. People suggesting he's drinking the UNC Kool-Aid, what do you think their fanbase would say about us predicting a win and bud dominating their offense?
Especially considering that they haven't lost a conference game since 2014. They SHOULD expect a win in this game, and anyone else in their shoes would, too.
Dude, midnight madness is just in a few. Check my flow bro.
Nah man you've got it wrong, obviously this independent beat writer has it out for us. Clearly by giving his opinion that UNC is going to beat us in football, he's drinking the UNC kool-aid and has no journalistic integrity. DOES HE EVEN KNOW WHO BUD FOSTER IS??
I joined TKP because this site gives me insight, analysis, some great laughs, and generally let's me fully immerse in Hokie football for the short time each year that it's being played. I love the fact that, last night over a few beers, I showed a UNC fan and friend of mine (I know.. I should choose my friends more carefully huh?) some of French's analysis on the game this weekend. He said, "damn this guy is good and looks at things in a balanced way. I wish we had a site like this" That kind of stuff makes me proud to be part of the group. I'm as big a homer as the next guy when it comes to my Hokies but I love it when we spend our words focused on how we can win. For me it makes watching the game so much more rewarding because I prepared to be an intelligent fan......End rant from new guy.
i'm in the same boat as you in terms of becoming an intelligent football fan--i even bought a book on defensive football strategies which had a chapter dedicated to Coach Beamer's schemes. and the kicker--i bought it at a Charlottesville Public Library Book Sale!
the bigger bonus from that day trip into enemy territory was i also "rescued" Coach Beamer's "What it Means to Be a Hokie" book which had an old ticket stub of the 1998 WVU-VT game as a bookmark inside...
I need to go to more book sales... That is a fantastic find.
I was at that sale too!
I got in a fight over a football book entitled "Effective Game Management" by M. London with this big blond guy that day. He seemed really intense and I finally let it go when he threatened to punch me in the balls over it.
Counterpoint: To a certain extent, I'm glad to see a return to the mindset of screaming, "The fuck you are!!!" whenever anyone predicts the other side is gonna win. Saying he's drinking the kool-aid is probably a tad harsh. But I'm loving the return of confidence and perceived disrespect to the fanbase. I haven't really felt it like this since I was on campus in the late 90s and early 2000s.
Agreed. I've missed going into games against good teams where both sides believe they're going to win. I appreciate Andrew's insight and the fact that he did it on his own time for free. That doesn't mean I have to agree with him though. I think we may be overreacting a little bit.
The confidence isn't even close to justified though. I mean just step back and look at our schedule...lost our only big time match up so far, beat up on BC and ECU. BC and ECU!!! Who cares?!?! They are really bad at football and the one thing fans seem to hang their hat on is that BC has a great defense, and we scored 49, but it happens.
If we win out the year and make the playoffs, confidence is justified, but until then we are just a yearly mediocre team trying to get back to former glory.
We are 1-3 against those 2 teams the last 2 seasons. Its not that we beat 2 teams. We thoroughly dominated 2 teams that have been a thorn in our side the last couple years. By trashing them like we did, it shows the team is sharp and focused again. Also, we scored more than 100 combined on them with a combined margin of victory around 80 or so. We know what Bud Foster can do, we have known what Bud Foster can do for nearly 2 decades now. If you have Bud Foster on your defensive sideline, you have a chance to win every game, and now we are starting to see that we have an offensive staff that may potentially embolden that same belief as well. You combine those 2 together, and I don't blame anyone for getting puffy chested right now about VT football.
What I don't get is the constant need of some to continually try and throw cold water on any positive energy surrounding the program right now.
A thousand times this.
previous seasons, we've gotten way hyped over wins in competitive games. then we have to find some way to get excited about eeking out wins that should have been blowouts or, even worse, we have to find excuses for why we lost those games and why it won't happen on a bigger stage.
That's why everyone is so stoked by how our season has gone. We have steamrolled the teams we were supposed to beat and looked good at moments against a team that was supposed to dominate us. Sure, I'd much rather be 4-0 right now, but I'm ok with blaming 5 fumbles for our loss to Tennessee and saying it should not effect our outlook on the season. It's a damned sight better than trying to explain how Wake held us scoreless.
Like Alum07 said, we beat two teams that we have struggled to beat in recent history. And, with many of the powerhouse teams looking less than powerhouse-y against lesser competition, I'm pretty amped that we're in the same category as Bama when it comes to manhandling lesser teams by ridiculous scores.
So now we're going against the defending coastal champions with some obvious deficiencies that seem to match well with our strengths (you know, we have an offense that can produce and their defense is awful). So yeah I'm optimistic that we will beat them and I laugh at anyone who thinks a UNC win is a foregone conclusion.
Again, who cares outside of Hokie fans? All you did there was show that the meaning behind those wins is entirely contexualized within the Hokie fanbase. It meant something to us, yes! But on the outside looking in losing continuously to BC and ECU is really bad, and that's because we have been really bad.
Yes, I'm trying to splash some cold water on people, but not to derail any excitement, but to wake some people up from this ridiculous dream that the country needs to respect us for our accomplishments. These accomplishments are monumental for Hokie fans, but minimal for other fans.
I would postulate that the fact we're ranked this week is reason enough to suggest that what we've done so far this season has mattered to more people than just Hokie fans.
Just a guess
I mean, lets be honest, we shut out a Power 5 program and we smacked ECU around in back to back weeks. Are those expected wins? Yes, absolutely. But those are the teams that you expect to see someone beat 24-10 or some score like that. 49-0 and 54-17 opens eyes, because smacking teams like that isn't really supposed to happen too often unless there's a massive gap in overall competency level between the programs, and those only happen when its a very good team going up against a middling team. Smacking a team once on your schedule can be a fluke. Doing it in back to back weeks? That's harder to dismiss.
Very ture, I agree with that, but I'm more referring to the fact that fans here seems to feel disrespected that UNC are feeling super confident about this game. They should be and we are the ones here with the burden of proof. Trust me, if we win this, I'm all aboard, it takes me a little longer get on the train though.
Honestly, I think VT, UNC, and Miami are in a whole different class from the rest of the Coastal, and its going to be a fun 3 team slugfest to get to Orlando. By the end of the year, I expect all 3 to be ranked in the Top 20, and possibly the Top 15, and whoever comes out on top will give Clemson or UofL a run for their money in the ACC title game.
Win or lose, this weekend will show VT is a team that cannot be overlooked anymore and commands respect from the opponent. If UNC truly is looking past us to Miami (and it does reek that they might be doing that) they're in for a world of hurt tomorrow. I'll just say, living around here, the crowd could be interesting tomorrow. Everyone I know who is a VT fan and has tickets is incredibly excited to go, and everyone I've talked to who supports UNC and has tickets is on the fence about going because of the weather.
Pitt might have something to say about that. They gave UNC a hell of a game.
My thought exactly. And to see things like this:
I think this site loves to deliver a swift reality check when a fan shows any sort of optimism much more than it loves to feel disrespected. We are fans. That's it. It's supposed to be fun. Our opinions don't matter, and being overly optimistic isn't going to hurt our chances in a game.
Yeah, its like a few of my friends last year during the run the Panthers had. After every win, they'd always come back trying to reality check that x or y wasn't good enough and that we're going to inevitably fail. And then after the Super Bowl, its been a constant stream of "I told you so, how could you even think they had a chance, you should have listened to me" blah blah blah. Nevermind the fact they went 15-1 and advanced to the Super Bowl in a regular season I'll personally remember forever. Sometimes you just gotta sit back and enjoy the ride, because you don't know when its going to end.
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No one's throwing cold water on optimism. It's being thrown on people calling out a neutral third party who gave some reasonable responses and some very insightful answers that are being ignored because he had the gall to not pump sunshine up our asses. The only disrespect being shown is towards the UNC writer. There has yet to be any discussion of the actual game in this thread, only griping over someone who wasn't gladhanding our fanbase.
I remember looking at some threads after the @OSU game and everyone was already talking ACC Championship and playoffs. It really doesn't take a whole lot to get us going even though our dreams are dashed over and over again. I always tell myself that I'm going to temper my expectations, but I always end up buying into the hype at some point.
At the time, the hopefulness after the OSU was justifiable. Year two under a new OC, and then one of the biggest road wins in our program's history. That wasn't foolishly optimistic to believe we had turned the corner. We just couldn't sustain that level of performance, and those hopes were soon dashed.
Against Ohio St we played a perfect game. Like almost an absurdly perfect game. Brewer was making passes I haven't seen a VT QB make possibly ever, fitting the balls through the tiniest of gaps (giggidy). Thing is, everyone on here acknowledged the fact that we played perfect and everything that could go right went right that night. It was the perfect storm. The magic of that evening soon wore off, and once we started playing football that wasn't perfect, the scheme we had on offense didn't put ourselves in a great position to win most games, and we struggled.
That's not the position we're in now. The scheme we run puts ourselves in position to make plays. We don't have to be, nor have we been, perfect to put up points this year. The last 2 games easily could have seen the scoreboard balloon up past 70 if we were hitting on all cylinders, but we weren't. But that's also what makes this season interesting, because we're capable of rolling teams even if we're not perfect. That's why there's just cause to be optimistic.
It's fair enough to respond to "opponent O will win" with "the fuck they are, because X, Y, Z" where X, Y, Z are intelligent football thoughts/arguments. However, the rah-rah, lowbrow comments that appear in many threads have brought down TKP's collective intelligence and high quality of discourse that made reading the comments and interacting enjoyable.
Somewhat related from the content aspect of TKP, there's a lot of time and care put into what's published. As a writer and editor, when the discussion on a front-page post devolves into comments like 'let's show these pole smokers what's up' (as verbatim as I could remember), you're less motivated to write something high quality.
There are many other outlets for puffing out your chest and spewing nothing but unintelligent trash talk. Use them for that purpose and not TKP. Ultimately, it's adding noise to the discussion on TKP, and it's not a big deal every once in a while, but it doesn't need to be done over and again (especially by the same TKPers). And as I said above, there's a way all at the same time to be excited, proud, and objective about Hokies' football.
As the community grows, it gets harder and harder to maintain a high level of discussion. I've said it before, but it's up to the longtime TKPers to set an example. Otherwise the community will degrade to one you don't want to visit.
To be fair, I think most of the chest-thumping was in response to Andrew's answer to the final question. Up to that point, he's broken down UNC's performance with some pretty good detail. (And, as you mentioned, in his own free time.) And then when Joey asks him for a prediction, that kind of goes off the rails a little bit. I think it's comments like this that raised some hackles around here:
Okay. Why? Is there something Andrew sees in Foster's defense that makes him think Fedora and Trusbisky can exploit it? Because despite all the in depth analysis Andrew has provided up to this point, here he just comes across as throwing shade.
It would be one thing if Andrew had said, "I see UNC coming out on top," and left it at that. But instead he basically says Foster can't stop their offense, and then turns around and says the UNC D will be ready for VT because of the offense the Tarheels run. All that after the "unless Miami just never loses" comment that, regardless of Andrew's intent, comes across as saying that if UNC is going to drop a Coastal game, it wouldn't be to VT. Those are baited comments, and some people responded only to them and not to any of the (quality) analysis.
Granted, not everyone articulated the reasons why we disagree with Andrew's assessment, but you already published a pretty good summation of that in French's analysis of UNC.
Bingo. If someone insults my mama, I can shake it off...but insult Bud? He deserves what he gets. :)
Totally agree. I think Andrew also fails to realize who is his audience - a VT fan base who is pretty dedicated to their team.
I want to hear his honest thoughts and opinions and I have no problem with him picking the Heels. I do think it is customary to give a slight tip of the cap to the other team though - especially for an article printed on their page. However, not once does he say that Evans performance has been pretty dang good for his first 4 D1 starts, Fuente has put together what looks to be a dynamic offense quickly, Bud has his defense clicking, or that we have opened a few eyes with our last two games. Of course, complimenting and respecting the other team isn't required, but it is what we have come to expect from opposing players, coaches, and usually journalists who do this segment for TKP. At the end of the day, he isn't writing this for his fanbase, but for the readers of this website. A simple, "A Bud Foster defense, they'll get after ya," would have gone a long way.
I think many of us were reading, waiting for a compliment (and Joey pretty much begs for one with the ACC question) and were perplexed by the Miami comment. We then got slapped in the face with the idea that Foster couldn't slow down their O.
And ultimately, if I'm Andrew, why should he contribute to TKP if this is the reaction he gets for a completely reasonable interview?
You guys know me: I want nothing more than a Virginia Tech win tomorrow.
Do I think it will happen? That's a whole different column...
IMO the Tech Sideline people saw how good TKP was and now have infiltrated these message boards with negativity.
irony
I don't know that what you say is necessarily true about TSL, though I've rarely been on their site. However, the community here has definitely changed as it has grown. Here's the thing, change is inevitable. It isn't inherently good or bad. We as community members can influence how it changes, and it's pretty simple. Be liberal about giving out turkey legs to good posts and threads, downvote things that don't follow community guidelines (also read the community guidelines every so often), and leave feedback on things you disagree with but do not make it personal or downvote opinions.
One of my biggest complaints is clickbait like and poor title choices. I make it know when I think they're especially bad. It's definitely understandable why people struggle with that though as most professionals make titles to get clicks, instead of relying information, so people emulate that to a degree.
Edits: Damn my phone's auto correct for thinking it was smarter than me.
So if we see a post titled "UNC's Defense was OK last year, but you won't believe what it looks like this year!" we shouldn't click on it, right?
Since it's on TKP click that shit and any ads 1000 times for additional revenue, and then let the person who posts it know how terrible their title choice was.
Pretty sure just about every post Joe was referencing was from a longtime TKP poster
kennyhokie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stop making us analytical!
Turnovers or not, everyone saw us wet the bed on a national stage. We have beaten Liberty, BC, and ECU. In my opinion we have not earned any respect. Do I think they are overlooking us? Undoubtedly. There is only one way to earn this respect everyone is speaking about and that is by proving it on the field tomorrow.
I believe I actually know Andrew from a series of summer jobs we worked 10-15 years ago. If its the same guy I know, he grew up a big UNC fan and that fact does come out sometimes in what he writes, but at the same time, he's also really good at his job, and has been critical of the Heels down here when needed. I'm no more surprised he's picking the Heels to win than I am surprised to see any beat writer for VT pick the Hokies to win. This game is essentially a Vegas tossup, and either side is going to see enough to convince themselves their team will win.
So no, he's not drinkin' the Kool Aid, he's just viewing the game from a different perspective than we are and what he sees validates to him that they'll win. There's nothing wrong with that. Now, wake me up if the UVa beat writer predicts the Hoos to knock us off in November... then I'll have an issue.
I think his comment about grit is a pretty solid talking point. They've been in tight, close games and made the plays they needed to make comebacks and finish those games with W's. We have been in blowouts where we encountered few roadblocks, and a game where things started to not go our way, and we fell apart and the issues compounded. I'm interested to see how we respond if we end up in a one possession game late in the fourth.
I think we win, but I am also a fan. The weather makes me uncomfortable because I don't know how it will affect our offense/personnel because I haven't seen it yet. That said, Bud Foster really has done a tremendous job against Larry Fedora the last three years. UNC's best team in my lifetime, fresh off dropping 70 in back to back weeks managed just 24 in regulation against Foster's unit, which was not playing mistake free.
Interesting point about our wins being blowouts vs. them having to fight back
a few times. Should be interesting how each team responds if it comes down to that.
Didn't realize they were fresh off dropping 70 pts 2 weeks in a row last year. We definitely
played solid in that game. With a better offense maybe we would've won .
I was slightly mistaken, 66 against Duke and 59 against Miami in the two games before ours.
Makes that "catch" so much more frustrating. There was grit on both sides that day, maybe more so by the home team.
Not sure i'd suggest the strength of our defense lies in the secondary. I think by far the biggest strength are the DTs and even DL as a group currently.
I agree. I don't know that I want this one coming down to our CBs vs their receivers. But I don't think it really does.
I'm gonna call it now. Bud brings the house and forces them to go to primarily short passing plays because Mitch Trombonesky doesn't have enough time for longer routes. Then we get at least one pick from a DE dropping back into robber coverage while Switzer runs a slant.
Yeah, defensively, to borrow from the NFL, we're employing the same kind of play that teams like the Vikings and Broncos are. We're winning the LOS and creating pressure on the QB, who is forcing passes quicker than he would like, making things easier for the secondary. If we can't get pressure, you'll see the defense suddenly look like the Panthers, who are getting gashed in the secondary this year./
UNC is easily the best team we will have played since Tenn. I'm curious to see how VT responds if/when they go down by a score or two early. I haven't seen VT claw back from a deficit against a good team yet and that could very well be the position this team is in tomorrow afternoon.
Honestly, I'd be ok if that remained a mystery
obviously....but it's bound to happen, no?
this team completely lost composure against Tenn after a fumble and a couple of bad penalties...then it snowballed and they never really looked like the team they've looked like most of the rest of the season. I hope that they have grown up and matured and learned from that but they haven't been tested. It's easy to be confident and look good when you're hammering opponents 49-0 or have half time leads of 38-0. This team hasn't been truly tested since Tenn and I believe UNC will test this team in that way. UNC is going to score points. They just are. And probably quickly too. We could easily be in a 14 point hole by the end of the first quarter and that's a position this team hasn't really played in before. I think it could happen...obviously I would prefer it not to, though
To be honest, I still wonder how much of that was a lack of buy-in. We were off a decidedly underwhelming win against Liberty, and even though we went up two fast scores on the Vols, how much of the implosion after the bad snap/fumble was attributed to a sense of "ohshitohshitohshit" sinking in? Compare, by contrast, how the offense reacted in the first quarter against ECU, when things just weren't clicking on offense. No panic, no forcing things. They just kept grinding until they hit their groove, and then it was bye, Felicia. Granted, we weren't down at the time, but the ECU-sized monkey on the program's back might have been enough to incite panic. Plus, Fuente strikes me as very much an "ignore the scoreboard" kind of guy. If the dedication to the scheme we exhibited against the Pirates indicates buy-in, you might already have your answer.
Yeah, I kind of agree here. Even the last 2 games, we didn't exactly jump on the opponent right away. Sometimes I think the grit factor might be overplayed a bit, and its more on the coaches and players learning and knowing how to adjust and adapt to better beat your opponents when things aren't going your way.
That Tennessee game... I know we put the ball on the ground way, way too many times, but other than that, we had a good gameplan and the team was executing well. Sometimes you're just snakebit like that. The team learned from their mistakes, and got better because of it. We play the same way tomorrow that we did against Tennessee and we limit turnovers, the game could get lopsided in our favor.
If you mean by not scoring on our first drive okay...but we've had 14-0 leads before the end of Q1 3 games in a row now....I'd argue that constitutes as jumping on the opponent pretty quickly
That's a good point. I've been feeling like Alum, that the offense was slow to get going. In reality, maybe it was a few drives and then things started to click. 14 points in any quarter is a good quarter of football.
If you can punt 3 times and still go up 14-0 in one quarter, that's pretty good.
well..to be fair to your point of the offense looking slow, one of those scores against ECU was a punt return. Without looking, though, I believe all of the other scores were offensive triumphs
Yeah, that punt return definitely helped.
We're a team that can take a little bit of time grinding the gears and feeling out the opponent to see what works, but the second we find the gear, we go 0-60 in the blink of an eye and we pour on scores. You'll look at the score and its 0-0, and the next time you look up, we're ahead 17-0 or 21-0. That kind of pace will also help the team believe that they're still very much in a game even if they go down 2 scores early, because they know they have the ability to gut you quick.
I like the analogy! Leg
all. three. of. them.
Bud has demonstrated an ability to slow down Fedora's offense even with the dreaded mobile QB. I haven't seen Chizik prove it yet. Hopefully Saturday isn't when he starts showing that ability!
To me, this game is possibly the biggest of our season. The last two games have had us all seeing what can be, but I think tomorrow will show what this team is now. I believe in our guys, and I think we can get it done. I'll be there in Kenan no matter how much it rains and can't wait to see what this team is really made of. Let's do this...
At the beginning of the season I, and most of the people who made predictions, felt like UNC Pitt Miami would make or break the season's success. To lose all three would not be good. To win one would be to show improvement, and winning two was about as high as most realistically thought possible. There is a good chance tomorrow's game is the toughest of the three. Based on how we have played, I believe we have a good chance of an 8 or 9 win season. I am excited about seeing what we have, and the possibility of raising those expectations, but we are the underdog here, and there is no way any UNC fan should not be predicting a win when they are favored and ranked higher and coming off a division championship season and win on the road at FSU. They are good. I will take the rain, them overlooking us, Hood being out, or any other advantage we can get. I hope we don't need it, and I'd bet on us anyway, but love where we are headed win or lose.
To be fair, I don't think UNC overlooks VT. The #25 ranking was a pretty good poke in the ribs for them not to.
UNC players cannot count to
25 and don't understand the situation.
I honestly am not sure if UNC's offense will keep "rolling," mainly because the teams they have faced have had pretty porous pass defenses.
A quick look at defensive rankings shows this:
Yards per Attempt (defense)
VT: 9
FSU: 127
Illinois: 109
Pitt: 117
Georgia: 88
I'm not sure we will win - but I have faith that Bud can at least slow down the attack.
But, they only are ranked that low because UNC tore them up with their vaunted passing game. So once you adjust for that, these are basically top 10 defensive teams /s
UNC is #7 in S&P+ offense. I don't get why people are acting like they only put up good numbers because of who they have played. Their offense is elite
#7? Good, that's just more spots for them to fall to after Bud is done with them
Well look at it this way:
Georgia gave up 24 to UNC, afterwards every other team has scored more than 24 and Nicholls State scored 24.
Pitt allowed 37 to UNC, but gave up 39 to PSU and 45 to OkSt. Marshall had their way with them in the second half last week, scoring 27 points to close a 27-0 gap to 30-27.
After coming off a shutout of BC, we knew that we just played an inferior offense. Our D looked elite - but we had yet to be tested (minus the UT game where our D was placed in some bad situations). But we weren't sure of how good we really were. UNC hasn't played a "good" defense yet, just as we haven't played a good offense yet (without our own help).
I'd argue that we won't really know how good UNCs O is until Saturday, and the same thing goes for our D. Until then, I don't think either can really be called elite.
OK STATE has a very good offense and Marshal is also good offensively. Pitt Penn state rehashed a big rivalry so PS brang there best. I think Pitts numbers will level off.
My wife went to Marshall so I get to see them frequently - and while they have been a juggernaut on offense of late, this year isn't it.
Tailgated with quite a few Pitt fans last week before the game and they will readily admit their DBs aren't very good at all. Marshall ran the same few plays all the way down the field over and over. It was agonizing for the Pitt fans around us.
Pitt's D is down but Peterman is decent, their RBs might be best in the ACC overall, and they have some physical WRs. When we play them it won't be like last year.
I'm just curious. Now that they have that really nice indoor practice facility, do they practice in the rain?
If I remember correctly, someone said last year that they never practiced in the rain even before the new facility because of the risk of stupid injuries.
Makes sense.
But also means the first test in the rain is in a real game. Unfortunately, looks like it will be vs UNC.
According to Fedora, he used to practice with wet footballs to prepare for rain, but he said he stopped that because they already practiced enough in the rain. Hmmm.
Man how far we have gone from the days of expecting to win every game. I understand the UNC writer believing UNC will get the win. They won the coastal last year, played Clemson tough in the ACCCG and have had two gritty wins one against the 12th ranked team in the country. They should be optimistic. But the writers point of as long as Miami doesn't win out UNC wins the coastal is a bit of overlooking the Hokies.
The is probably the best offense we will see to date but we are also the best defense they will see to date. They have never steamrolled us except for 2012. Even last year they had a hard fought win against us when we were mediocre at best. We are looking way better this year. I don't care if it is against ECU and BC because they beat us the past two years. If we eaked out wins against them then yeah. But we didn't we crushed them from the beginning.
So am I ok with the UNC guy thinking they will win? Of course, he has reason to. Am I ok with how he seems to dismiss the Hokies as not really much of an obstacle for them? No, because VT has always been an obstacle for UNC. They have only beaten us 4 times since we've been in the ACC.
This is basically how I see the beat writer and our response (or Trubisky and Bud's response)
UNC fan: Miami's the toughest opponent on our schedule. Not sure anyone can beat them.
VT fan: Miami hasn't played anybody. I'm worried about UNC.
Generally speaking.
Agree completely. A lot of people on here are saying we haven't beat anyone of significance, which we haven't. However Miami hasn't either and yet they are ranked #10 or something. Talk about the pollsters riding the Mark Richt train from the outset.
I'm still concerned about UNC but when looking at two high powered offenses and one high powered defense and one mediocre defense.....who has the edge?? I think Tech. Not saying it's going to be a blowout but I think we get the win. Even Vegas thinks it's going to be close with the line only at UNC -1.5. Basically a toss-up
Could part of that be from the fact that we have a winning record against Miami over the last 10-20 years? I think we (VT fans) lost our collective fear of the Miami "name" a long, long time ago. It's to the point with us that "Miami's back!" is a punchline within Hokie circles. I know that UNC has had success against the Hurricanes too, but last season was the first time UNC had posted a true "convincing" win over Miami. Naturally, they would see Miami as a bigger threat just from the fact that that they haven't had the same history against the Canes as we do.
I prefer to be cautiously optimistic about winning the game. I recognize that UNC is a much better offense than anybody we have played this year. They will score points. The trick will be limiting those points through a turnover or three, and scoring when we can.
Great interview, thx! One Q: Was this misdirection or do you really think "the strength of the Hokies' defense lies in the secondary"?
Gotta be DL, right?
To get this discussion back on track...if anything I think he may be giving our secondary too much respect. We're good, no doubt, but we've struggled with big physical receivers a lot in the past few years and they have two monsters on the outside. Add in a dynamic force like Switzer who is going to be occupying safety help, our defense could be in a lot of 1on1 battles that tilt in their favor. Also intresting how he noted that they played against two very different pass defenses in Pitt and Florida State. Each team tried to slow them down in different ways and neither was very effective. I'd like to think we have a slightly more complete defense than either (Florida State has the talent obviously but looks out of sorts, Pitt's cornerback play has been atrocious) but we won't know until we play this game. This will be one I wish TV offered better camera angles because I'm keen to watch how Chuck Clark aligns and reacts to a passing scheme that is going to try and keep him from helping anyone over the top.
Let's get this train back on track. Here's a very cool analysis from Bob Stoll at SB Nation:
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/10/7/13205022/virginia-tech-north-...
A couple of highlights from the analysis:
Them's fightin' words, Dr. Bob.
And beyond some of the cool stats, here's what it all comes down to:
Well worth a read, and not just because the conclusion is pro-Hokie. Lots of nice stats to complement the Q&A here and Joel's weekly breakdown.
But seriously, though, that's a GREAT article. One thing that stuck out to me was that his entire article wasn't even accounting for the weather. When you throw in what we're expecting the weather to be, and knowing their best bet to beat us is on the deep pass in the middle of continual 20mph wind gusts and heavy rain, you have to really like our chances to pull this off.
Let's consider the hurricane factor. I think, schematically, it plays into our favor. A lot of folks are saying that if UNC can complete passes over press coverage than they should win. Bud is going to limit passes over the middle, and short yardage success. High velocity, long passes being slung in rain falling at a rate to accumulate 2" by games end, limiting visibility, and grip are going to be harder to complete. If the consensus is that UNC needs those completions to win, then I feel the Weather is going to impact that in our favor.
Moreover, UNC's Defense is reported as being weak against the run. That is the best method of attack during this type of weather. I think we looked good in the run vs BC. We didn't run the same speed option plays so much against ECU, so I don't think it is apples to apples comparison between those games. That is evidence that our Offense can scheme against a defense. I know that BYE week practice was focused on Zone blocking and the run game. We all know that we came out of the BYE ranked so we must have done something right...right?
I hope we can see the same success in the run as we had vs BC. That opened play action pass. It was a really strong offensive game plan against a good defense. If we can do that again, well that is just going to make this weather situation that much worse for UNC.
I don't think people are fully appreciating how much the weather is going to impact this game. The offensive numbers are likely to be down, and if not, the plays are likely to look different and be dependent on busts. I see a game in the low 20s and I just hope we come out on top. The shame is that I think we would win convincingly in good weather, primarily because of timing.
Andrew's followup to the game was a fair assessment, and generally gave credit where credit was due.
News & Observer: VT 34 - UNC 3, the Day After - Andrew Carter