FPI is horribly flawed when there are games like the 4 played in RTP area, yesterday. Scoring was going to be low. FPI basically looks at average points scored, above the opponent's average. VT was barely above UNC's team average, so there is almost zero benefit to winning the game, in terms of FPI (VT's FPI score didn't change, from the prior week). FPI might be the best single statistic in predicting future performance, but to do it right you have to control the scores for major impacts like weather.
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VT had a 31 point differential over UNC. That's WAY above UNCs +9.4 win differential (40 pts more). I don't know how FPI actually calculates their averages, but the D held UNC to way below their average of 40 pts/game. Weather is an idiosyncratic factor that cannot be 100% correctly incorporated, but both teams played the same game, on the same field, in the same elements.
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Nice to see that kind of number but, as always, the Winston Wolf Rule applies.
Noice
UVA at 78.
Ken Massey updated his, as well. VT sits at #17...one spot behind Miami. Ken has us favored in the rest of our games.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
I think that's more in line with my appraisal.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to only move 3 or 4 spots on the AP or Coaches polls.
S & P has us at 15.
Phil Steele hasn't updated his power rankings yet.
#17 feels right but couldn't help getting fired up when I saw #12. Fully dipped.
If he has us favored over Miami, why does he have Miami ranked above us?
I can understand it.
Started ranked, hadn't lost until yesterday, and others lost so they moved up to 10. Then their only loss was to another top 25 team by 1.
The next logical step in that line of thought is that the team they just lost to lost to the team we just beat.
Because Sagarin typically gives about +3.5 pts to the home team.
This year it's 2.47
I need to talk to Ken... he is probably giddy about what the Hokies are doing this year.
VT shows up at #15 in the FWAA-NFF Power 16:
http://footballmatters.org/alabama-remains-no-1-in-week-6-fwaa-nff-super...
Posted in another thread, but this seems like the more appropriate thread. ESPN's FPI has us ranked 28th:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
I don't need to mention how ESPN is terrible at this, do I?
this
How does that relate to their power ratings article, which has us at 17? I assume the article is not computers-based. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17750222/houston-cougars...
They have 12 voters. You can see their votes here:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17752813/power-rankings-...
Everybody's favorite Heather has VT ranked 24th; Ivan Maisel has VT unranked.
Edit: Maisel's votes seem to be from week 4 or so. Stanford 3, L'ville 4, Houston 5, Clemson 7
FPI is horribly flawed when there are games like the 4 played in RTP area, yesterday. Scoring was going to be low. FPI basically looks at average points scored, above the opponent's average. VT was barely above UNC's team average, so there is almost zero benefit to winning the game, in terms of FPI (VT's FPI score didn't change, from the prior week). FPI might be the best single statistic in predicting future performance, but to do it right you have to control the scores for major impacts like weather.
VT had a 31 point differential over UNC. That's WAY above UNCs +9.4 win differential (40 pts more). I don't know how FPI actually calculates their averages, but the D held UNC to way below their average of 40 pts/game. Weather is an idiosyncratic factor that cannot be 100% correctly incorporated, but both teams played the same game, on the same field, in the same elements.
From the way that I read it, they don't use differential. They use scoring. VT scored 34, but unc averages almost 32 puts/fm allowed.
Raked 15 in Football Outsider's F&P:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa