Halfwits and Wagers: Make Thursday Night Great Again

13 years ago, #10 Virginia Tech and #2 Miami squared off on a Saturday night in Blacksburg. I remember walking past where the basketball practice facility now stands on my way to Lane. Scalpers were selling tickets for anywhere between $600 and $800. ESPN was in town. It was the biggest college football game of the year and I couldn't help but laugh in disbelief that I was lucky enough to score a student ticket to the game.

We all know how that game transpired. It began with a legendary Enter Sandman that was wonderfully documented by the ESPN broadcast. It peaked with DeAngelo Hall's strip-and-score off Roscoe Parrish. And it ended with a 31-7 beatdown of one of the strongest programs in America at the time.

This year's tilt can't match that level of hype. But we're still looking at two teams just outside the Top 25 with first year head coaches looking to lay claim to the Coastal Division.

The game may have lost some of its lustre over the last two weeks, but it doesn't change its importance. It matters for all of the typical football program-related reasons (i.e. recruiting, championships, etc.), but almost as importantly it matters for communal and national perception. Justin Fuente's Hokies are looking to prove that they are in fact on the upswing, and that quest continues tonight.

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under: Final announced attendance of 65,999 at Lane Stadium Thursday Night

Brian: It's such a depressingly classic Virginia Tech move to lose immediately before their biggest home game of the season. Just pause a moment to think about what could've been: a one-loss Hokie squad that's ripped off four in a row, hosting a primetime matchup against the most talented team left on their schedule.

It's the kind of stage dreams are made of. Unfortunately Tech melted into a puddle under the brightest of Carrier Dome lights, and now come into the matchup sporting a fresh black eye. The stakes aren't as high, and as a result not as many people will make an excuse to take two days vacation to sneak off to Blacksburg.

My guess is an announced attendance of roughly 65,000, with an actual crowd closer to 62,000.

Pierson: This game is big. The biggest game in Lane Stadium since last year's opener against Ohio State (sorry Frank). Not just because it is the first Thursday night game in Lane in two years. The Hokies' season arguably hangs in the balance. Fans were up in arms when the 2013 schedule was released and there was no Thursday night home game to be found. The same held true in 2015. When Tech had a chance to stick it in ESPN's faces in 2014, Miami throttled the Hokies 30-6.

I have no doubt that Lane will be rocking tonight, regardless of the final attendance figure. I think there will be a few empty seats — Miami fans don't typically travel well to Blacksburg (or Miami Gardens, for that matter) — but I think Hokie Nation comes through. Everyone understands how big this game is, both for this season and the future. They understand that more Thursday night games and big name recruits are directly tied to how everyone — including the fans — performs in front of a national audience. I have faith. I'll take the over.

Over/Under: 229.5 yards passing for Brad Kaaya

Brian: There's a certain kind of offense that's eaten Bud Foster alive. It's the kind of scheme we saw last week, both fast paced and spread out. Luckily, the Hurricanes are neither of those things, and fit the kind of squad that the Hokie defense traditionally throttles. Kaaya threw for nearly 300 yards at home in last year's meeting, but I think he'll struggle in Lane Stadium.

Pierson: Outside of Kaaya's 368-yard outing against App State, the kid is averaging a mere 201 yards per contest. Last year against the Hokies, Kaaya threw for 296 yards. But he also entered that game averaging close to 310 yards through the air, due in part to an experienced group of receivers. That experience has been replaced by a bunch of youth, led by elder statesman Stacey Coley, to go along with an inconsistent offensive line.

Fun Fact: Did you know that dating back to 2000, Tech defenses have surrendered only 195.6 yards passing per game on Thursday night games in Lane Stadium? That figure is inflated by EJ Manuel's 326 yard performance in 2012 and Marshall's 442 yards in 2002 (I remember sitting in the north end zone for that Marshall game, watching Byron Leftwich chuck and hobble all over the field to pad his stats despite getting boat raced by the Hokies).

We've set the line low enough that it wouldn't take a virtuoso performance from Kaaya to hit it. But I like the idea of a return to Thursday night glory. Give me the under.

Over/Under: 5.5 seasons at Miami for Mark Richt

Brian: So Richt is 56. To take the over assumes that he'll want to coach until he's 62. It also assumes that the irrational bandwagon of Cane boosters won't get tired of the annual nine wins and Russell Athletics Bowl appearances their head coach brings them. Just because of those insanely high expectations, I'll take the under.

It's more fun to take the under, too. Think of all the fun things he could do in his third act! My vote goes to him wandering around South Beach in a cowboy hat and gym shorts, passing out pocket-sized copies of the New Testament. We're already so, so close.

Pierson: The shelf life of Miami head coaches is surprisingly consistent dating back to Lou Saban in the late 1970's (debatable relation to Nick). Excluding interim coaches, each head whistle has led the Canes for 4-6 years. Richt noted this summer that, "It's kind of a good spot to finish my career. I have no intention of doing anything but finishing my coaching career at Miami." Well, good for you.

The thing is, the University of Miami football program doesn't quite work like that, Mark. You see, sometimes people decide to move on to the bright lights of the NFL. Other times, they do a piss poor job of creating a disciplined program, both on and off-the-field. Richt doesn't strike me as either of those types. I see Richt falling into Category 3 (see what I did there?): Finds marginal success in Years 1-3 before plateauing and ultimately failing to live up to unreasonable expectations. I've got nothing against Richt, I just don't see him stringing together another 15-season tenure down in Coral Gables. With that being said, he should surpass 5.5 years — pencil me in for the over.

True or False: The Hokies will outgain the Hurricanes offensively by more than 99.5 yards

Brian: This is based on two things. First, can Tech bounce back on short rest against a depleted Miami defense? And secondly, will Bud Foster and company avoid the kind of breakdowns we've seen against the Canes over the last two years?

I say yes and yes. Jerod Evans will be more efficient (just look what Mitch Trubisky did in Coral Gables last week), and Foster's unit will be geared up after being gashed by the Orange. Also, Richt runs the kind of offense which has traditionally been in Tech's defensive wheelhouse (outside of the 2006 Chick Fil A Bowl, but that's another story for another time). I think it'll be tight in the scoring department, but Tech owns the night from a yardage standpoint.

Pierson: Despite all of the fanfare surrounding the Hokies' new-look offense, the Canes are surprisingly ranked two spots ahead of the good guys in Total Offense (#57, and #59, respectively). If you remove Miami's first three opponents (FAMU, Florida Atlantic and App State), they are averaging a pedestrian 331 yards of total offense. The Hokies, meanwhile, are averaging 414 yards of total offense when you omit the Liberty game (and that includes playing in a hurricane).

I was really impressed with the speed and tenacity of the Canes defense when I watched them play App State and FSU; however, Tech will be facing a hobbled version of that group. Tech's ability to generate a consistent pass rush against Brad Kaaya will go a long way towards determining how much they are able to move the football. The potential absence of Ken Ekanem and Nigel Williams could complicate matters. I'm giving bonus points to the Terror Dome and an assumed chip on the Lunch Pail Defense's shoulder. I'm taking the over.

Over/Under: 2.5 yards per carry for Sam Rogers

Brian: Am I allowed to make Sam Rogers jokes? Or will the cult of "SAM ROGERS IS SUCH A HARD WORKER" come to get me? I get it, he's the people's champ. The type of dude you want your daughter to bring home for Thanksgiving. The kind of football player you tell your nephews you could've been, "before your knees went."

Just to be safe, I'll take the over. LET ME KNEEL BEFORE THE ALTAR OF EFFORT.

Pierson: Under. I love Sam Rogers as much as the next guy. He is a solid blocker. He catches the ball well out of the backfield. His crazy eyes are terrifying enough to bring peace to the Middle East. But please — please — can we cut Sam's carries in half?

On 2nd and 20, Sam can get you 8 yards. On 3rd and 2, Sam is good for a yard-and-a-half. Another week of 7 or more carries and I'm starting a Change.org petition.

Matchup Over/Under: 51

Brian: I'll take the under, because as a fan base we're not allowed to have nice things. This is one of Tech's last chances to play in front of a national audience. Outside of the miracle in Columbus, these sort of situations haven't exactly come up Hokie. The team often falls flat, like they did the last time Lane Stadium held a Thursday nighter (a 30-6 drubbing at the hands of these same Hurricanes). Or if they win, it's in a game that's closer to resembling a fight between two drunk hobos (UVA 2014, anyone?), which doesn't exactly help the Hokies' standing in the eyes of anyone outside the fan base.

So if I have to take any kind of past performance as indicator for the future, I'll have to assume this thing'll be ugly.

Pierson: The gambling disaster that was last week's game has got me completely rattled. 51 seems like an easily attainable number, given the talent on both offenses and the injuries to both defenses. But both teams are coming off tough losses five days ago, and their ability to bounce back will be arguably the biggest x-factor tonight. My brains are telling me this game could be ugly; my gut is telling me to have some fun and root for a Hokies blowout. I'm taking the over, because screw it.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-4.5)

Brian: I like the Hokies, but I can't give a tangible reason why. Miami's more talented, but they've had that advantage over most of their opponents over the last decade, and it hasn't amounted to much. It's a complete guess, but I think Tech comes out fired up in front of their home fans, plays solidly on defense and wins by roughly a touchdown.

(They could also lose by 20. After Syracuse, I'm not sure anything would surprise me.)

Pierson: This is essentially a "Pick 'Em" and a spread I typically tread lightly around. There are just so many variables at play, especially on a short week. I really like the Hokies to bounce back after a humbling loss to perennial ACC cellar dweller Syracuse. The fundamentals tell me to forget about last week's dud and pick the Hokies. The team will be out to prove that they are for real and the crowd will be out to remind the nation that there is no comparison to Lane Stadium after dark. I'm taking the Hokies and laying the points.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.