Ok, let me start with saying that I know that we have to take this season one game at a time. But guess what? We're not playing, we're fans who can have fun with the what if's of the world.
Along that line I propose this scenario.
Let's say the Hokies win out and meet undefeated #2 Clemson in the ACCCG. The Hokies pull out the win, finishing in the top 10 with 2 losses.
Louisville has also won out and it's ranked above the Hokies due to their one loss.
Who goes to the playoffs? A 2 loss ACC Champ Virginia Tech, a one loss Clemson that lost their Championship game, or a one loss Louisville that didn't even make it to their Championship game? OR does the success of VT mean that the ACC doesn't even get in the playoffs?
Your thoughts?
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I think that depends heavily on what the rest of the country looks like. I'm of the thought that if VT somehow wins the ACC Championship, the ACC just won't be represented this year. That loss to Syracuse is impossible to justify and it's not like the loss to Tennessee was all that close
I'm don't think the loss to Syracuse is "impossible to justify." I'm not saying we get into the playoffs with two losses, but OSU got into the playoffs (and won) with a home loss to us, and we weren't very good that year.
True, but that was also their only loss on the year
loss also came very early and they progressively got better over the course of the year and played a highly ranked MSU team at the end I believe. Outside of Clemson in the ACCCG we'd have no one of note down the stretch. Is 0 chance that we would make it even if we win out, jmo.
Just making the ACC CG is more improvement than I expected coming into this year, so hopeful we just get there. Taking this one game at a time just like the team.
And, They mauled MSU and Wisconsin that year, who were both highly ranked.
I asked David Hale this on twitter:
Someone in the mailbag asked about this situation in which a 2-loss Coastal Champ beats Clemson in ACC Championship (Hale used UNC as example because UNC fan asked):
The one problem I have with a scenario where VT/UNC wins the ACC but either 1-loss Clemson or Louisville goes to the playoffs is that you can't put Louisville in (Clemson was better H2H) and you can't put Clemson in (they lost to VT/UNC in the same that supposedly matches them up with the best team in the ACC). Either one would be a weird situation to validate, and would create a precedent for the regular season not mattering in head-to-head matchups.
As already touched on, the biggest question marks are the Big 12 and Pac-12 champs. How many losses does the Big 12 champ have? Is Washington the Pac-12 champ? The way things are playing out now, the Pac-12's only chance of making the CFP are with a 0 or 1 loss Washington, as everyone else has lost too many games.
But then, the Big Ten is going to be jamming things up. Ohio State has a loss now, but what if they beat Michigan to make it to the Big Ten title game? You still have 11-1 Michigan floating around, basically in the same situation as an 11-1 Louisville.
We're not going to the playoffs guys come on.
There was a slim chance, before the Cuse loss, that if we won out we would go. After that loss, a 1 loss ACC team that's been top 10 since early in the season will go ahead of us. VT winning out, including the ACCCG has a better chance that no ACC team is selected.
Agree on the first part, disagree on the second in that if VT wins out we have a better chance than the chances of no acc team.
I think everyone knows we wont make the playoffs this year (thats for next year of course), but it is a valid question. I think the big 12 will be the key to that question. I think wvu and baylor are overrated but its gonna be hard to keep an undefeated big 12 team out of the playoffs. If both teams lose a game then i think a one loss clemson (to either us, unc, or pitt in the accchamp) would still get in. If clemson loses to fsu this weekend then i think louisville might squeak in over one loss other teams assuming clemson still loses in the accchamp game.
So it's forbidden to talk about? I talk about marrying Alicia Keys every time I watch the voice and I'll never stop!
via GIPHY
It would make me very pleased if Virginia Tech is the reason the ACC gets left out of the playoffs this year
Cant envision the ACC making the playoffs if the above scenario plays out. Regardless, lets get rid of the Ketchup Kurse before we worry about screwing up the rest of the conference.
A one loss Michigan team likely beats out Louisville based on strength of schedule. And that's if there aren't an undefeated champ from either of the other two conferences besides the SEC. Washington and Baylor/WVU are the front runners right now for those conferences. Washington's lone remaining game against a ranked opponent is this weekend against #17 Utah. Baylor and WVU play on December 3rd, so that's an intriguing end to the season with a conference championship possibly on the line.
Louisville is about to go on a strength of schedule submergence considering its next five opponents are UVA, BC, Wake Forest, and a flailing Houston team followed by Kentucky. Tough to compare that to Michigan even though they have a couple duds too with how bad Michigan State is this season. They do still have a 5-2 Maryland team and a 5-3 Iowa team before playing a bad Indiana team. They close the season against Ohio State. I anticipate whoever wins the OSU-Mich game makes the playoffs against Alabama, Washington stays undefeated and gets in, leaving one spot for the ACC/Big12/G5 undefeated to battle it out for. I only bring up the G5 piece because you have a likely undefeated Boise State to account for as well unless they do something to trip themselves up.
I don't much care if we win out and dash Clemson's hopes. There is no rule saying acc has to be in the playoffs. Having said that, I think we will lose to Clemson in the acccg, then go onto play in a decent bowl like citrus. I think this is how it's going to be this year and next. For Fuente to perfect that offense, it'll take 3 years. It's gonna be hard for to maintain a big win streak when precision is required in the execution of the offense
I think the latest ESPN bowl prediction was us against Auburn in the Belk Bowl. I would love that!
Not this year, but I appreciate the optimism. If we can keep Bucky or Isaiah for next season, then I would say our chances are much higher. But given the loss to Syracuse, the media's love fest with Lamar Jackson (deservedly so), and the fact that the ACC might still be seen as second to the SEC (which I disagree with), going in at 11-2 wouldn't allow for us to come close to getting in.
I don't think it's unrealistic to see a two-loss ACC Champion making the playoff. Obviously, it would need help. Would need the Big XII to beat up on themselves. Would need Bama to crush the soul of everyone else they play. Washington would have to slip up once in conference and once in the title game. Then you have the Louisville and possibly Michigan conundrum if both were 11-1 non-division winners. This isn't a totatlly unrealistic scenario, but would see something like.
1. Bama
2. OSU/Michigan
3...
4...
In this scenario, you're taking 2 teams from a batch of 11-1 OSU/Michigan and Louisville along with 11-2 conference winners like Colorado and VT and a 10-2 Oklahoma. I think once a team loses twice, it opens up the doors to 11-1 non-division winners to enter back into the fray.
The odds on this happening aren't great, but it's possible we see some variation of this...could possibly swap UNC and VT. Throw in the possibility of an 11-1 WVU and Baylor and there are plenty of headaches to go around. At the end of the day, I think they'd go with Oklahoma and Louisville.
It's an interesting look at to why 8 teams might be the ideal number. The argument of 8-9 is much easier to dismiss than 4-5.
I dont see Washington losing and I assume that WVU will win out
I don't see Washington losing either, maybe to a Colorado or Utah in the championship, but this was "what if." It's fun to speculate. Obviously, Virginia Tech needs to win out and have an extreme number of results bounce their way. It's definitely more accurate to say that we have a better chance of taking a third loss than a playoff birth...I think this was the case even before we kicked off against Syracuse.
The only 11-2 ACC that might have a chance of making it into the playoff would be one of the teams with the preseason hype. Their 2 losses would be viewed in a different light, than 2 losses for an unranked (not even a single T25 vote) team who was supposed to be in a rebuilding year with a new HC (and who wasn't even expected by many pundits to go to a bowl game).
Two loss Clemson won't make it, it would require a loss to Florida State (they could maybe live with this one) but then it would require a loss to Syracuse, Pitt, USCjr, WF, or ACC Championship game and I think a 2nd loss to any of those late in the season easily keeps them out.
Two loss Louisville likely won't make it either because they would have lost to a reeling Houston late in the year.
While it is very unlikely, we are probably in the best position to make it as a two loss team IF AND ONLY IF there is significant chaos in front of us and we win the ACCCG convincingly.
More importantly, let's beat Pitt.
as much as I hate the phrase, what really would matter would be "quality losses." Losing to a crappy Tennessee team that tumbled ass backwards into most of their wins and might not even win the lowly SEC East and to a gawdawful Syracuse team are not quality losses. Louisville losing a close one to Clemson that can be blamed on the refs is a quality loss.
Winning our division won't buy us much credit either. UNC is viewed as our best win and that will always have an asterisk because of the weather (stupid, I know, but still a thing). Miami is a joke and everyone left on our schedule, ND included, are scrambling to even make a bowl.
We are a divisional champ at best and an ACC champ in my wildest dreams this season. And that's pretty stinking good all things considered. Let's enjoy the ride and worry about playoffs next year when we have wins over Clemson, WVU, and the almighty Delaware Hens to prop up our street cred.
Don't look now, but your first two paragraphs sound like Heather Dinich.
yes, I was making the case from the point of view of the establishment. So, mission accomplished.
Right you are.
I'm personally more concerned about the prospect of making the ACCCG, losing to Clemson and the Orange Bowl taking Louisville over us. I see that as a far more likely scenario.
Unless Louisville loses two more games, that will indeed happen.
And honestly, if they win out they deserve it. They are a great team and their only loss would be a crazy close game to a playoff team. I'd love to see Lamar in a big game.
If it gets us to the Music City bowl somehow against a SEC school, that wouldn't be the worst thing IMO
Cmon guys...these are the kind of threads that other fanbase make fun of people for.
We're not going to the playoffs with a loss to Syracuse. If we win the ACCCG, the ACC will probably be left out or they will take a 1 loss Clemson/Louisville. Yes, even with the CCG loss. VT isn't gonna get in with 2 ugly losses. Let's focus on winning at Pitt for the first time since '99, then think of the ACCCG before even mentioning the playoffs.
this thread:
Eh, majority of people are speculating on if the ACC would be left out, not whether we would get in.
I haven't seen anyone say we would deserve a playoff spot, only that we could play spoiler (which is pretty fun).
Why should we care what other fans think? If I'm a fan, I'm gonna talk about my team in all sorts of ways and that includes the ridiculously optimistic.
oh right, I agree we should not have this thread because other fan bases will make fun of us and that would hurt our feelings....
Seems like it's a pretty fun discussion to have, oh well.
Eh. Unless 2007-level chaos reigns, we won't be making the playoffs.
As far as non-champions go, though, I think it would be possible for Michigan to get in with a singular loss to OSU or Louisville to get in with a singular loss to Clemson, but that also assumes that OSU/Clemson lose only the conference championship game moving forward.
I'm sure we could get into many scenarios where chaos could get us close, but...
I will not talk about playoffs. I will not talk about playoffs! I WILL NOT TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!
This conversation reeks of the stuff that makes us lose to Syracuse.
Even if you know it's not right, it's difficult to resist. But we must.
This future reality
Listen, I'm not saying we'll make the playoffs. I'm just throwing out a possible scenario that would make for a very interesting selection by the playoff committee. I'm not trying to bring the ire of the football gods, and I feel comfortable enough in the teams focus on the next game (BEAT PITT) to let my mind wander about some possibilities that I find interesting.
If that scenario plays out, three ACC teams could make a case for the playoffs (with the 2 losses, ours would be the weakest). I just wonder who would get picked, or would the ACC get left out with 2 one loss teams?
Here's another thought, would the score of the ACCCG matter? If, for example, would it matter if we won by one as opposed to winning by 20?
I know there's a lot of football to be played, and even getting to that game is going to be a tall order, but can't we have a little fun in the what if's?
We have the same chance of making the playoffs as we do of making it to the Super Bowl.
How do you see the rest or our season/ the ACC/ the playoffs playing out?
I was just tossing out one scenario that I thought presented some interesting possibilities.
we are a two loss team until proven otherwise. Therefore we win out, beat Clemson in the ACCCG, Swofford cries into his Raycom coffee mug as the ACC is passed over for the playoffs, and we win a NY6 bowl game.
Very possible outcome.
This actually sounds wonderful.
It would be an extra special 'fuck you' to the ACC if we went and ruined their playoff party by winning the coastal and conference
One that I would very much enjoy... I would especially enjoy watching either Clemson or Louisville forced to play in a who gives a shit Tier 2 bowl after the seasons they've had.
Love your new profile picture!
I support your fun-having, and will never bash that. But yeah, I don't see a scenario where we make the playoffs either.
remember when we shat the bed against a crappy FSU team in the ACCCG? A 4 loss FSU got to play in a BCS bowl simply by virtue of being the ACC champion. This will not happen in the CFP. When there are 5 power conference champions to choose from and multiple quality one loss teams, the two loss champion is going to be left out. Period. Otherwise, why didn't we just stick with the BCS?
By the way, I'm totally #Team8TeamPlayoffs. I'd love to have a situation where a team that manages to win its conference gets a chance to make a run for the title, no matter how many OOC losses they have (see: 2010 Hokies). P5 champions + Highest Ranked G5 team + 2 at large bids coming from the remaining top 12 in teh CFP rankings.
If this scenario plays out I could see the ACC being on the outside looking in at Bama, Washington, WVU/Baylor, and B1G champ.
I would be surprised if the ACC is represented in playoff if VT wins the conference.
Let's just beat Pitt first.
Assuming the top teams win out, a 2 loss ACCCG winner would most likely ruin the changes for an ACC team to represent in the playoff. Now if the Hokies get to play spoiler in this scenario for the ACC, I certainly wouldn't argue with that!
All this talk of Playoffs when chances are we'll lose at least one to two more games
The team looks good and has an energy on Offense that its been missing for close to a decade.
Next year maybe we'll show some improvement and turn some heads.
If we get into the ACCCG during year one I would be thrilled. Everything that happens after that would just be an added bonus.
Two things will happen:
I'm sort of counting on Bama making it into the top 4 though
I dunno, they could slip up in a trap game (you know, every game left on their schedule because they're looking forward to January)
I think Saban is a good enough coach not to let his team think they've arrived before they do. But even if they do trip up it's going to be because of their "grueling SEC schedule" and a 1 (or possibly even 2) loss Bama is almost certainly a lock for the playoff
Bama is probably the best bet to make the playoffs, but many people are pencilling them in as undefeated in predictions, which may or may not happen.
Agreed, in the sense that I may or may not win the next powerball jackpot.
Here's a better "what if" question. What if we start actually winning the games we're supposed to (Pitt, ND, Duke) instead of playing down to said opponents' level? I would consider that greater for our program than the playoffs this season. Just sayin.
I wouldn't put Pitt as a team we're supposed to beat right now. They are tied with us in the Coastal standings and haven't had any losses by more than one score. At best we're slight favorites and at worst it's a tossup.
So... we should beat them badly.
they also were picked to win the Coastal by some outlets
If we're favored (no matter how slightly and regardless of history) we're supposed to beat them. Period.
personally I like it when we're 4 point favorites. I expect us to win and I don't have to worry so much about a back door cover by way of a last minute field goal or something because if they're that close, they aren't going to settle for 3 points. But yeah, this season when we've been slight favorites, we've blown the spread out of the water and I'd like that to continue Thursday.
well then I guess its good we're a 4.5 point favorite right now?
I got my bet in when we were still just 3.5. So I don't care where it goes from here.
I sure like the under at 66. If that rainy forecast holds up, it could be a very ugly game.
The lines are there to make money. Not give an accurate prediction on who is gonna win. They just know how people are gonna bet.
That's not totally true. While yes, they would like a balanced line, if they were to go around putting up unrealistic spreads it would offer an arbitrage opportunity to the big money betters who throw around way more money than individual gamblers combined. Vegas has to reflect reality otherwise separate parties just as good at predicting outcomes would ruin them.
A great example was the Wisconsin-Iowa game where the Badgers were only favored by ~3 points. 20% of ALL money bet on CFB last weekend was bet on Wisconsin. I can guarantee you Vegas had no illusions that would be a balanced line, they went with what they thought would happen (and if Ferentz wasn't maddeningly conservative, it very possibly would have).
Wrong. If they were not incredibly accurate, anyone with a half decent model would rake in money against the public
Ok, Dwight.
There is so much shit to be eaten by Pitt so quit throwing a fit let's just make it to Charlott-dammit, ACC.
Haha. That rhymes.
I appreciate everyone's comments on this, it's interesting reading everyone's thoughts on this scenario. Personally, IF it plays out, I haven't the slightest idea what will happen. I find holes and defenses for each team and for the ACC being left out altogether.
A lot has to happen, starting with beating PITT, and I feel confident that is the only thing on the teams mind right now.
I really want to see this scenario play out. Not only to see what happens, but because it will mean that we are once again a force to be reckoned with.
And just maybe maybe a player or two with a bright NFL future will be enticed to hang around one more year to try to fill that waiting trophy case.
TL/DR: Anything is possible but we would need a metric shit ton of help from across the country, there would at least have to be two other top teams with two losses and no teams that are undefeated. We would also have to blow out the rest of our opponents so as to hopefully ease the loss against Syracuse. I think the voters and experts know that we were better than Tennessee, we just shot ourselves in the feet. We play that game 10 times we win nine of them.
That was also TL
The only way a two loss ACC champion makes it into the playoffs is if all of the other conferences start hemorrhaging losses and feeding on themselves.
For pure entertainment value, my highest wish is that Louisville gets into the playoffs and we get to see Lamar Jackson go up against Michigan and Bama. For that to happen, Clemson needs two losses to get Louisville into the championship, or have someone like us play spoiler for Clemson and allow chaos to work it's magic.
Unfortunately I can't agree with you on this. Ever since the metro conference screwing that loserville gave us, I have wanted them to lose every game in every sport forever, except when they play LOLUVA. Don't get me wrong, Jackson is a phenomenal athlete, but I'm happy to wait until he's playing on Sunday to pay attention.
This is the reason why I have a hard time cheering for Louisville. The metro conference debacle and the fact that their coaches are ethically challenged.
Related question. Let's suppose VT wins out and defeats Clemson in the ACCCG to finish at 11-2. Would you prefer:
1. To be the #4 seed and meet Alabama in the Peach, or
2. To miss the playoff and instead get a winnable Orange Bowl matchup against someone like Wisky, or possibly get a second shot at the vols, or hell, maybe even get a chance at redemption against boyzee?
Not sure, but given where the team is and that it's Fuente's first year, I think I'm leaning towards #2. Better to shine against a very good opponent than get blown out by 'bama and reinforce the "VT can't win on the big stage" narrative. Am I crazy?
no, you're not crazy. But fans are crazy, so you don't fit in here.
Playoffs all day every day! Go big or go home!
I'd prefer the second as well, honestly. When we make the playoffs I will be going without any reservation. I just don't think we're on the level of those top tier teams YET, so I'd rather not be compelled to take a bunch of days off and spend a bunch of money when we're still a couple years away. Plus, for the sake of the program long term, I think the optics are a lot better to get to and win a new year's day bowl than to struggle in a playoff game.
I think a big win in a big bowl would do more for the program and set the stage for next year.
But I also like the way that macraw thinks in the comment below.
So many scenarios that it's too bad the playoff is only 4 teams.
If a team has a bad loss(es) early then comes on strong, shame
if they get excluded.
Everyone saying we'd need a ton of help to make this happen: you're not entirely wrong, but you're not entirely right either. We don't need 2007-level shenaniganry to get in, it actually comes out comparatively simple in terms of upsets:
- Bama, Michigan, and Washington each win out and are 13-0. This ensures that EVERY other team in their 3 conferences, with the sole exception of Nebraska, have at least 2 losses.
- Nebraska's next two games are against Wisconsin and Ohio State. If they drop one of those (likely), they get their second loss to Michigan in the B1GCG.
- Baylor and WVU each play Oklahoma (likely loss for each) and Texas (possible loss) and also play each other. WVU also plays Oklahoma State. The idea of both of them having two losses by the end of the season seems reasonable.
- Here's the part that is probably least likely: Clemson would likely need to lose to FSU, and Louisville would likely need to lose to Houston, or for Clemson to lose to FSU and then suffer a perfect example of Clemsoning by dropping one to either Syracuse, Pitt, or Wake, thereby allowing us to hand the Atlantic winner their second loss in the ACCCG.
In this scenario, there's 3 undefeated P5 conference champions undisputedly taking the top 3 seeds. Behind them, there's a long list of teams vying for the 4th seed:
- Up to 2 undefeated G5 conference champions that didn't play anybody Pawwwww (Boise [not a] State and Western Michigan)
- 1 or more 2-loss teams from the Big XII (Select up to 3 from Baylor, who played 3 cupcakes OOC; WVU, who also played 3 cupcakes OOC; Oklahoma, who lost to Houston and Ohio State, and under this scenario would also be the Big XII champion at 9-0 in conference; and Oklahoma State, who beat Pittsburgh but lost to Central Michigan)
- Clemson and Louisville, both at 2 losses, one who won the Atlantic but lost to us and one who didn't even win their division
- An assortment of 2-loss non-champions from the SEC, B1G, and P12
- Virginia Tech, 11-2 with a resume that includes wins over likely-ranked teams such as UNC, Miami (by then, assuming they take care of Pitt), and top-10 Clemson
If we win out (and it's a BIG if), and get a little help (only 3 real upsets needed), there is a chance we could sneak in.
I like the way you think.
That and I don't have time to do research like that at work.
This reminds me of all the mental gymnastics I'd do back in the late 2000s early 2010s about how to chaos our way into the title game.
I've been doing the mental gymnastics ever since I got back to my brother's apartment after the game on Thursday night. I just finally had time to figure out the last details and put my thoughts
on paperin text.I remember in the 1999 season watching Penn St. play Minnesota, rooting for the Gophers because Penn St was ahead of us in the rankings, and being elated when MN kicked a field goal late to beat them. My wife was wondering why I was so excited. I had to explain that the teams in front of Tech had to lose for us to play in the championship. She never thought that would happen.
And in the scenario if the Clemsoning happens to Syracuse and they end up say 8-4 our losses all of sudden don't look bad. But first BEAT PITT!!
Syracuse also has FSU standing in the way of an 8-4 record..... but I guess if they beat Clemson what can't they do?
It seems that people here are 50/50 on hating what ifs. I personally love them, and am interested in what it WOULD take to get a 10-2 ACC Champion Hokies squad to the final four.
-Bama wins out.
-Michigan wins out.
-Washington wins out.
-Clemson chokes against a team remaining and then to the Hokies.
-Louisville loses to Houston.
-WVU and Baylor both stumble twice.
-No one loss SEC West runner up. Looking at you A&M.
Thats it, right? Would we need Boise or W Mich to fall?
edit: I'll drink, its what I get for getting up mid post.
It's been stated twice, it has to happen now, right?
FIFY.
If you cant win your Conference Title you have no business playing for the National Title. If a 2 loss team beats a highly ranked Undefeated team and becomes Conference Champs, guess what? -That's the best team in the Conference- not the formerly undefeated team. Just my 2 cents.
You only have to look at 2011 to find a flaw in your line of thought. The season ended with 13-0 #1 LSU, 11-1 #2 Bama (only loss to 13-0 LSU, 9-6 in OT), 11-1 #3 Oklahoma State (only loss to 6-6 Iowa State, 37-31 in 2OT), and 11-1 #4 Stanford (only loss to 11-2 Oregon, 53-30). Bama was declared the #2 team in the country, and they responded by dominating LSU in the MNCG revenge match, 21-0. Oklahoma State ended up beating Stanford in OT. You'd be hard-pressed to convince me that Bama wasn't one of the top 2 teams in the nation, as hard as that may be to admit, even though during the regular season they were the 2nd best team in the SEC West.
I still think OkSt should have been playing LSU in the MNC that year but I can't remember why I discounted Stanford.
Because they didn't win the Pac12 either?
Nor their division, as Oregon won on tiebreaker but lost a nonconference game to finish 11-2.
That must have been it.
Oregon actually lost to LSU in the non-conference
I disagree, I think Alabama was clearly the best team in the country, and proved that with a 21-0 dismantling of LSU who had looked almost equally as dominant all year.
I want to watch the two best teams play every year, and I hold the same opinion on picking playoff teams. Which is why in 2014 I was very much making Ohio State's case to make it, and they proved me right in that instance.
The "they lost, they don't deserve it!" mentality only makes sense on an equal playing field, and many years the SEC West has been exponentially more difficult to play through than any other division by a longshot.
Then why couldn't they take care of business in that 9-6 snoozefest two months earlier?
They avenged their loss in dominating fashion proving they were the better team?
Idk, why didn't we beat BC the first time we played them in 2007?
Nobody looked better than LSU or Alabama that season and they both played much tough schedules.
All I have to say is... lets WIN OUT FIRST and then...
Being a realistic and unbiased football fan, a number of things would happen before 2-loss VT made it.
1-loss Louisville makes it instead
If tOSU beats Michigan in a close game and goes on to win the B10, 1-loss Michigan would go over 2-loss VT. B10 puts in 1-loss champion tOSU and 1-loss Michigan.
WVU could win out giving you a: Alabama (wins SEC), Michigan/tOSU, Washington (wins Pac), WVU playoff (wins out)
Look, I LOVE my Hokies. Like many of you, I'm one proud alum... but we ain't making it with a loss to Syracuse in a game we were heavily favored in and a loss at Bristol in what ultimately turned out to be a turnover infested beat down. The upset would be cool as hell but it won't result in playoffs.
We control our destiny for the ACCCG and I believe we have the talent and the coaching staff to make the ACCCG a competitive game. We could potentially go to a tier-1 bowl. All of that surpasses my first year expectations for Fuente and co.
I tried to explain this weekend to my wife and son why I was rooting for UVA to beat UNC. You know the, "well, if VT loses another game, UNC will win the tiebreaker and win the division. So we want UNC to lose again."
My wife shoots back, "Well, if VT loses again, we don't deserve to play in the ACC-CG anyway."
I kinda feel that way about the playoffs. I could see an angle before the Syracuse game where VT could put ourselves in position to slide into that 4th slot and feel justified. But Syracuse ended that for me. No matter what happens with a 2-loss ACC champion, I'm not concerned if VT could get into the playoff. We've already lost that chance.
UNC still has GT, Duke, and NC State to play in-conference. Your scenario could be fulfilled without your having to resort to rooting to LOLUVA.
Some things just aren't worth it, man.
Can we clear something up? The ACC only has one realistic shot to get a team into the playoff this year, and that's if the Atlantic Division wins the ACC Championship. VT isn't sneaking in, not with a loss to Syracuse in the middle of the season on the resume. At best, we're the potential spoiler who throws the entire selection process into chaos during Championship weekend. UNC may be able to backdoor their way in, but a lot of things have to fall right, and at this point, I really just don't see it happening. As for the Atlantic loser, unless the committee is willing to take 2 ACC teams, the Atlantic 2nd place team heads to the New Years 6. Should the Coastal knock off the Atlantic, they're not going to take the ACC's 3rd place finisher. Not happening.
I like to never speak in ultimatums like this, because you never know what could happen.
What happens if everyone between #4 and #24 ends up with a loss to a team on the same level as Syracuse by the end of the season?
What happens if Syracuse shocks the world next week and beats Clemson, and parlays it into an 8-4 finish?
Neither of those are particularly likely, but you never know how it's going to play out, which is one of the great things about College Football. I never would have thought SMU would even come close to competing with Houston this past weekend, but when the time came they dominated that game start to finish. And if somehow it works out to where we end up #4 in the CFP rankings, I'm certainly not going to complain. And there's a decent size group of people that find it fun to imagine ways for that to happen.
What we really should be looking at is bowl payouts, since the ACC pools their bowl revenue.
Therefore, as a conference, we want someone in the CFP, because that pulls everyone up one level, and the conference ends up with more money.
So, we get one team in the CFP, one team in the Orange Bowl, and maybe get that set up where we play the Big Ten in the Orange Bowl so we get their Citrus Bowl spot too.
99.999999999999999% chance we don't make it..... only way i can see it is a 10-2 VT team make it near or sneak into the top 10 in rankings and beat #2/3/4 Clemson convincingly, like by 30+ points in the ACCCG...... Highly highly unlikely but you know what they say.....
Oh, so now all squirrels with sunglasses are automatically blind now? Animalist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk
Wait, this involves WVbygodU to lose. Could it be the last weekend, when they are all but assured to be a top 4 only to lay a major dud????? Kinda like 2007 when Shitt upset them to close out the season????
If so, I'm all for chaos. I hate WVU.
WE suck wind period.
If we win and and NC wins outs and both have 1 loss. Does the ACC go by head to head or overall record?
H2H, I think
Yep, we have the tie breaker due to head to head.
Although they may throw it out this year, because that game was during a hurricane, and that's the only reason they lost. Well, that and Ron Cherry. /s
Either way, UNC will make ACC Champion Rings for themselves.
Overall record doesn't come into play at all for the ACC.
1.) conference record
2.) head to head
3.) divisional record.
Then it gets weird.
I can't remember what tiebreaker we had to go to for 2008, but there were multiple 5-3 teams in the Coastal.
It was just the two Techs, and we won H2H.
2012 would have been stupid, as GT, UNC, and Miami all tied at 5-3, 1-1 H2H, and 3-2 in the Coastal, meaning it would have gone to the next step (H2H against the next team in the standings, ie VT at 4-4), where UNC and Miami both beat us but GT lost to us, and UNC would have then advanced to the ACCCG on H2H against Miami. However, both UNC and Miami were ineligible for the postseason, so GT won by default. Though UNC still made up their stupid "Coastal Division Champs" rings.
You're right, it was looking like it could be extra chaotic but NC State beat UNC and Miami in the last few weeks to clear up the fog.
Louisville has the opportunity to gain a lot of style points down the stretch, really easy slate for them the rest of the year. I think it's really important for Houston to stay ranked to elevate the Cardinals into a possible playoff discussion (assuming they beat the Cougars in this scenario).
Hey guys, I have an important announcement....
Fuck Pitt.
I thought it was assumed, but I guess it's better to come right out and say it sometimes.
It just feels right.
NO PLAYOFFS
One game at a time. A win tomorrow night thought would be very helpful considering the rest of our schedule.
If we slip up against Duke, GT, UVA (not counting ND since not ACC), we don't deserve the ACC Coastal outright, but that doesn't mean I wont take it if UNC loses a 2nd game.
we should turn this topic around to the ACCCG and ways how Tech could get there. Right now as it stands....
Just winning a baby? How did we do that?
this thread is going to be awkward if/when we lose to Pitt
just sayin'
No more awkward than the AP Poll having us ranked #16 at one point in 2013.
And then we lost to Duke.
So my timehop today reminded me this day in 2013, we lost to Duke in a game where we held them to 198 yards, forced four interceptions, and DUKE DIDN'T CONVERT A THIRD DOWN (0-11). Their QB went 7-25 for 104 yards and 4 inteceptions, and once again I must point out, we lost this game.
:(
Fuck Matt Ryan
I was at that game. One of the few I've been to in Lane since graduating. Kendall Fuller had 3 picks and Duke's go ahead touchdown was scored because a young DE named Ken Ekanem didn't play his gap and bit on the play fake opening up the lane for the TD run. As usual the offense did poop and lost the game for us.
This would never happen, but what if Clemson lost twice and we beat a 1-loss Louisville ranked in the top 4? Then what? Just playing devils advocate...
I'm assuming you're inferring that we are 11-2 after beating Louisville, otherwise it doesn't matter. Depends on what else happens around the nation, whether the ACC would be shut out, but we'd almost certainly earn a playoff spot before Clemson or Louisville.
We're a couple of weeks closer to chaos! It could happen. :)
If we get to the ACCCG, a win over Clemson would be unbelievably cathartic for me.
Not sure if it's been shared, but Five-Thirty-Eight has this nifty playoff prediction tool that let's you enter a limited number of possible scenarios, and see each teams' chance of making the playoff. LINK
EDIT: I am not a smart man. Emotions got the best of me.
Edit: yep
Who goes? 2 SEC teams. Maybe 3.
Been rolling this around in my head for a couple weeks. I think that there are three teams we need to lose while we win out:
1. Clemson
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State
And then we need a three loss Big 12 champ. Reasoning behind this is in order to be selected we need to have the best record of any ACC team (or tied with Clemson but have the head to head) in addition to being ACC champions. Ohio State would have to lose to Michigan, so we aren't competing with two 1 loss B10 teams. Then we'd need to make sure we were ahead of the B12 champ (very likely if we win out). Lastly we'd need to make sure another at large doesn't beat us out. The only teams that could do that would be Wisconsin (10-2), Ohio State (10-2), and in a weird scenario an 11-1 West Virginia.
The point is that even if we win out and finish as the highest ranked team in the conference, we'd need some help. But in no way is a scenario that puts us in the playoff impossible. So cheer very hard against any 1 and 2 loss teams left, and especially against Clemson and Louisville.