So, I am completely ripping this idea off from the Adam Gold and Joe Ovies radio show on 99.9 The Fan in NC. Every week, prior to the Thursday night college and NFL games, they go over the Most Important, Least Important, and an amusing prediction for the upcoming games that evening with each host doing their own. So... Lets see how TKP user base can do with this for the game this week.
Here's mine for this week:
Most Important:
Handling Expectations. Can this team produce when the weight of everyone's expectations are on their shoulders? The last time it was this way the team collapsed under its own hype coming out incredibly flat against Syracuse, with the score ballooning before the team got its head out of the clouds. By the time we fought back, it was too little too late, and the toll of the first 3 quarters whipped our defense the rest of the way. With the team coming off its first ever College Football Playoff Poll and being a heavy favorite to win the Coastal with legitimate potential to sneak into the Playoff, can the team set these distractions aside, and just take care of business against what looks to be a clear inferior opponent on paper.
Honorable Mention:
Red Zone playcalling. We're lucky this didn't cost us the game last week, but when we get in the red zone, we have to get more aggressive and punch the ball in. 6 FGs in one game is a great accomplishment for Slye, but in most games that's a recipe for disaster. We had the opportunity to put the game against Pitt out of serious contention early. Against Duke, we need to get 7 instead of 3 when we're in position to score. Do that, and we should be good to go.
Least Important:
VT's Weak Running Game. VT's Running Backs are only running for 4.2 Yards Per Carry, good for 60th in the Nation.... aaaaaah, oh my God, time to panic, we can't run the football at all. Pitt completely shut us down and... Yeah, no. We're running the ball for an average of 191 yards per game as a team this year, good for 50th in the nation (5th in the ACC), and even in games where it seems like the run is shut down, like it felt against Pitt, we're getting enough productivity on the ground from positions other than the RB to break 150 on the ground. Our ground game is fine, its just different than what we're used to. Our strength is in getting everyone involved, and not just relying on the traditional backs to carry the team.
Honorable Mention:
Road Opponent in a Hostile Venue. VT is 2-1 in true Road games this year, and now that we're traveling to Duke, now we get to see how we really are on the road and..... Umm, have you ever been to a VT-Duke football game in Durham? This is a road game in the sense that Tennessee had a neutral site game against us in Bristol. Crowd is going to at worst be 50-50 between VT and Duke, and will most likely be a majority VT crowd.
Comments
For me, Most Important is getting a hot start. The last thing we need is for Duke to score first like Syracuse did. We have to set the tone early.
Least Important, I'm with you on the running game. If it were a higher level opponent, then maybe, but against Duke I trust our passing game and just enough effectiveness of the run game against their defense. I think Marshawn will have a big game.
Most important. Focus. Don't take Duke lightly, stay focused, and play with intensity and hunger. We have more talent than Duke. If we are focused from the opening kick this game should be ours for the taking.
Least important. Worrying about a mobile quarterback. Every time a QB runs for over 50 yards against us people lose their minds about Bud's scheme. Well, calm TF down. Mobile quarterbacks burn lots of defenses...this is not a problem unique to Foster and Co. Regardless of how much Jones is able to move the ball on the ground this defense will still manage to get the stops it needs to and the offense should produce enough with it's own mobile QB to win the game.
Absolutely need to focus. Really though, a lot of these guys have been beaten by Duke 2 outta the last 3 times. I would HOPE there is some motivation going into this game.
You're not wrong. If we don't have Focus we'll need some luck to Escape with a win.
I think's it's more like 50-20-30. 50% VT, 20% Duke, 30% blue seats that were forced to be there by the contractors that installed them.
Finally bringing up the real issues. Can we please stop forcing those poor seats to watch Duke or even lolUVA football!!!
What's it like when Duke plays UVA? Crickets?
(actual picture from the last Duke-UVa game in Wallace Wade)
That's bad.
And before you say "ahh, well that's not even the true visitors section, that's at the other side of the field on that side..."
Basically.
Lots of squeaky shoes. Lots of whistles. Plus, there's this really annoying air horn that blows for no apparent reason.
Most Important: I want to see this game finished by the end of the third, like the games early in the season. We need as much down time as we can get to finish strong, and last week was an example of how getting the backups playing time can really show its benefits.
Least important: Would also agree on the running game. Fuente has said time and time again, he doesn't care who is getting the carries. We are still a threat on the ground and teams must respect this.
Yeah, i'm on board with what this guy said..
Let's mercy rule the heartless blue devil worshipers!
I just feel like they're very well coached and can surprise you if you're not careful.
Against UL they played very well and kept it close with well called plays, etc.
I feel like this could be a close game.
Most important -- not getting surprised on defense by their play calls.
Least important -- Crowd noise.
Most Important: Time of Possession
Least Important: Points per Play
Someone had to.
savage
All joking aside, in this particular instance time of possession can be a factor. The way they kept the Louisville game close was simply keeping them off the field and limiting Louisville's opportunities. When Duke scored to cut the lead to 17-14, they used an almost 9 minute drive to do so. By doing this they setup a situation where if they had gotten one stop at the end, they would have time to make a final game winning or tying scoring drive. Louisville scored to foil this plan, but this is an example of how TOP can occasionally matter, even when it does not matter on a larger or consistent scale. Another example is the 2009 GT game where they played keep away for almost the entire second half.
edit: Louisville averaged over 9 yards a play and it was close because fewer opportunities.
For this game:
Most Important: keeping Evans upright. With a bad ankle already we will need to keep pressure off of the QB and make sure the offense keeps churning.
Honorable mention, last stop on the revenge tour. We are 4-0 against teams that beat Tech last year, time to make that 5-0.
Least Important: Road environment. Everyone knows this will be possibly the least hostile road game we play all year.
Honorable mention, opposing kick returners. Our kickers have nearly eliminated return opportunities.
"Least Important: Road environment. Everyone knows this will be possibly the least hostile road game we play all year."
This is only because we have UVA at home this year.
Most important:
Making sure Motley is ready to start so Evans can rest up for next week.
Most Important: Not sucking.
Ahhhh, now I remember a third reason I want the Indians to win tonight.
1. Closers who shoot at their wives in the garage,
2. Brett, the douche who works at the gym who only talks about the Cubs. And Iowa football. Seriously, shut up.
3. "Cool Grandpa."
I'm sorry did you say something? I couldn't hear you over the sound of being World Series champs.
Most Important: Win
Least Important: Don't forget this is a roundball school trying to football
Most Important: Stay Healthy
Honorable Mention: Win
Least Important: Shutout
Honorable Mention: Playoff Talk
Most Important: Turnovers. Always Turnovers.
Least Important: LOLUVA. Always LOLUVA. Just Because.
Amusing Prediction: More of a bold prediction here. Multiple non-offensive scores for the good guys. I'm thinking pick-6 and a safety.
Most Important: Turnovers-Evans is injured and it may effect his accuracy throwing and concentration when running. Evans has done well with ball security statistically, but I feel like he has gotten away with more than a couple of passes that should have been picked off. A couple of turnovers could turn the tide against us.
Least Important: Penalties-We have done pretty well with not getting penalized this year and if we do get penalized I feel more comfortable overcoming the obstacle. We used to get a holding call on first down and we might as well punt the very next play. I feel like this team knows where the first down markers are which was questionable the last few years.
Most important: Win
Honorable mention: Don't lose
Least important: Kirk Herbstreit's views on VT and how we're probably overrated
But their field is blue
Figured I'd post here because wow, it seems our offense is still underrated by some.
http://www.scout.com/college/duke/forums/1093-duke-football-forum/151045...
They said our defensive backfield is weak.
This one's interesting
Man am I glad we have French to educate us so we don't assume that Tech's running the same D from our victory over anOSU. While we do throw a Bear look into our pre-snap looks/shifts, it's not our only alignment.
In his defense, we have featured the Bear a lot in 2014-2015. We have used it less this year, but it's not a terrible assumption for a Duke fan to make.
Fairly certain he had a typo and meant to write "PG" and his idea of a center is a kid over 6'10".
Most important: Being ready for anything. Teams change their tendencies against us quite a bit.
Least important: Duke's passing game. I can't respect the aerial game of any team that threw five -- not one, not two, not three, not four, but five -- interceptions against LOLUVA.
Didn't see the Duke/UVA game, but to be honest, the Hoos defense looked pretty good last week against Louisville.
LOLUVA note: I watched the Louisville game last week at South Street Brewery in Charlottesville and my wife and I were the only ones paying attention to the game. There was some muted, polite clapping from one table when they got the 2-point conversion, but otherwise, I didn't hear ANY fan support (positive or negative).
Last time I checked, South Street serves delicious beer, not Zima. That could be the reason for the lack of enthusiasm.
Or maybe they were all already in their best empty chair costumes in prep for Halloween
They may have looked good, but Louisville had a hand in that. They were pretty much Syracusing through the game until the last few minutes.
Teams like to change their tendencies when they've got a few extra days to tinker with things (bye weeks.)
I think Syracuse had extra time to prepare for us and chose to find some ways to burn our aggressive D. Pitt had extra time as well, and it looked like they put in some extra wrinkles on offense (counter runs, shovel passes, etc.)
With some extra time off, I'm wondering what wrinkles Fuente is gonna throw their way?
Anybody remember any Memphis schemes we haven't run yet this year? Only the wheel route pass comes to mind.
I was thinking of last year too when ECU pulled James Summers out of a hat and turned him loose. I don't think Summers had rushed more than 5 times a game before that (fact checking is correct: he had exactly ONE rush prior to our game).
Basically, we've gotta be ready for anything at this point.
Most Important: Stay Healthy! Hopefully we do this by dropping the hammer so hard on duke that our second team is in by halftime and we can get them more experience.
Least Important: The Hype Train. High expectations are great, if our guys walk around campus all week feeling like champions that's awesome, but on the field I want them to always feel slighted. VT playing with a chip on it's shoulder is a force to be reckoned with and our team should feel that way every time they step on the field.
Most important:
Get to the quarterback on passing downs! I know we did well against Miami, but it feels like that is an anomaly due to a stationary QB. Syracuse killed us with 3rd and/or 4th down conversions underneath as Dungey prolonged the play just enough for a break in the coverage. Felt like the pass rush wasn't getting home against Pitt either. (Turns out Pitt is 2nd in the country in sacks allowed). We do a great job on 1st and 2nd all game, and I think we'll continue to see that. Don't know if Duke's QB is as mobile as Dungey was, but we gotta close em out when we know a pass is coming.
Least important:
VT 3rd Down % - Duke seems to give up big plays, both running and passing. I was happy to see Evans throwing downfield against Pitt. And it's about time for McMillian to bust loose again for a long on on the edge. Looking for chunk yardage plays early on to get a lead and then work the clock for the 2nd half. 3rd down stats may suffer as a consequence.
Most Important: Be ready for those damn trick plays!
More Important: Win turnover battle
Also important: Don't commit stupid PF on 3rd downs
Least Important: Their helmets
Most important Winning with Evans playing <60% of the game. Honestly based off last week I'd be fine if Mot started if Jerod's ankle isn't 100%.
Honorable mention What type of beer/bourbon I'm getting casually drunk on.
Least important Which receiver goes over 100 yards.
Honorable mention Which wine glass has iocaine powder in it.
Unless you have built up a tolerance for it (which I know that you know that I know that you have not), it's conceivable that you will RIP this weekend. In that case I have written a eulogy for you:
Here lies It's a Stroman Jersey I Swear, surpassed in life by no one because he intercepted it. Most known for always wearing a Logan Thomas jersey and telling people it wasn't a Logan Thomas jersey even if they didn't ask. Hobbies included: stalking people which usually ended in physical harm (he would, however, always let them know when it was over by giving them the "safe" signal that a baseball umpire gives), and grabbing objects that he would promptly take to the house. Yes, even though he was pretty much just an abusive kleptomaniac, he was still loved by some people on the internet. May he RIP.
I would be honored to have this as my eulogy. The jersey and klepto bits are pretty applicable to me actually.
Also I'm stealing part of that as my tag.
confirmed
Most important: winning with a healthy team
Least important: style points.
Most Important: Getting better
Least Important: Chasing the Playoff
Most important: The team comes out energized and focused. If we do, this game will be out of hand by halftime and we can rest starters.
Honorable mention: Going straight from a beer festival to a beer bar to watch the game. Beer on beer action is only slightly behind beer on bourbon action.
Least important: Duke football fan support.
Most important: "Prepare for them and play them as if you're a 0-0 team trying to become 1-0"
Least important: rankings and records.
Most Important:
What Hokie shirt/underwear/socks I'm wearing, and whether I shave on gamedayPlaying hard, smart, tough football to get the win.Least Important: What rank we are. Focus to win and what happens in the rankings will happen.
Ridiculous Prediction: Pat Narduzzi will go Full Nard this week again, the refs will flag him and tell him to pound sand.
VT's high yards/game stat is a function of running the ball a lot (23rd most rushing attempts in the country). They have played with a lead a lot and run more at the end of games to bleed the clock. The advanced metrics aren't all that enamored with the running game either- 99th in rushing S&P+. They aren't particularly good at running the ball but they do just enough on the ground.