It was noted after Virginia Tech's 20-30 loss to Georgia Tech the Hokies have strictly followed a W-W-W-L pattern since Frank Beamer announced his retirement.
I've noticed a trend in @VT_Football games since Frank Beamer announced his retirement. #Hokies #WLWW pic.twitter.com/wcUpfWEksU— Damian Salas (@vthokie) November 14, 2016
As the voice of objectivity here, I want to set the record straight that it is completely absurd that there is anything to that pattern other than a statistical anomaly. Can you imagine a team that is actually incapable of controlling their own outcomes and instead is stuck on some supernatural order? It doesn't make any logical sense whatsoever and is completely ridiculous.
But believe in it anyway because it feels soooooo good doesn't it?
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 7-3. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
A 10-win regular season is off the table, but Virginia Tech can still hit double-digits with an ACC Championship Game and/or bowl win. Of course it is the fault of fans already looking ahead to such things that the Hokies lost to the Yellow Jackets. This week Virginia Tech travels to Notre Dame to take on the 4-6 Fighting Irish.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
Although Virginia Tech maintains a distinct ranking advantage, that gap has closed considerably recently and given home field, computers are split on the likely winner. The odds of a 1-point underdog winning is 47.0%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
Both Tech and Notre Dame feature above average offenses and very good defenses, with little difference..
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?
As evidenced Saturday, having a distinct advantage doesn't necessarily mean things will play out accordingly. Teams may scheme to offset an obvious imbalance, or may find individual mismatches more appealing. One of those will likely have to happen on Saturday, for the Hokies to have any success running the ball.
Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Irish defense:
Some good news after the Georgia Tech game, Notre Dame's defense has not been able to force many turnovers.
The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:
- Nevada
- Utah
- TCU
The Notre Dame defense is closest in personality to:
- Toledo
- Western Kentucky
- Nebraska
When Notre Dame Has the Ball
Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:
Virginia Tech remains very good against the pass, but whether the Hokies can stop the Irish's rushing attack remains to be seen.
Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
As for personality traits:
As with Notre Dame, Virginia Tech's defense has not been particularly good at creating turnovers.
The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:
- Indiana
- Temple
- Georgia
The Notre Dame offense is closest in personality to:
- North Carolina
- Wyoming
- Colorado State
Special Teams
First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:
If only the Hokies could return kickoffs or punt.
When the Irish kick:
Then again, the Hokies' punting could be worse...
Who To Watch Out For
There is no shortage of talent on the Notre Dame roster, but who has produced thus far this season?:
- Quarterback DeShone Kizer is the second leading rusher on the team so $#&@.
- WR trio Equanimeous St. Brown (17.27 yards per catch), Torii Hunter Jr. (13.71 YPC), and Kevin Stephenson (19.52 YPC) all produce yards in big chunks and will be difficult to defend.
Statistical Key to the Game
Notre Dame has not had the luck of the Irish on turnovers this season, losing an average of 2.28 points per game thanks to bad fortune. Will that turn around this weekend?
The Stats that Define Virginia Tech's Season
Revisiting my column from this summer on the stats that will define the season, here is how the Hokies performed thus far (each listed as VT - Opponent):
| Opponent | PPP | Pace (sec/play) | ToP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | .40 - .21 | 22.7 - 25.5 | 33:42 - 26:18 |
| Tennessee | .33 - .71 | 26.1 - 26.1 | 31:44 - 28:16 |
| Boston College | .64 - 0 | 27.5 - 26.1 | 35:15 - 24:45 |
| East Carolina | .79 - .25 | 26.5 - 26.0 | 30:03 - 29:57 |
| UNC | .41 - .05 | 28.9 - 19.4 | 39:59 - 20:01 |
| Syracuse | .24 - .31 | 22.2 - 20.1 | 26:35 - 33:25 |
| Miami | .55 - .21 | 26.4 - 23.5 | 29:28 - 30:32 |
| Pitt | .48 - .65 | 24.4 - 29.1 | 33:17 - 26:43 |
| Duke | .30 - .28 | 22.8- 23.1 | 30:02 - 29:58 |
| Georgia Tech | .25 - .46 | 26.9- 22.2 | 24:05-35:55 |
I will not value time of possession.
Statistical Prediction
I'm getting pretty good at this! The W-W-W-L pattern means there is a 100% chance of a victory so it's just a question of by how much. Notre Dame may have turned a corner after a 44-6 dismantling of Army, is talented enough to keep it close (all six Irish losses have been within 8 points), and 99.6% of Hokie Nation will complain about a running quarterback.
Virginia Tech 21, Notre Dame 20
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Why do you not value time of possession? The only 2 games in which VT has been dominated in TOP this yr were losses to teams with which VT had no business losing.
Explained in the first entry this year:
http://www.thekeyplay.com/virginia-tech-football/2016/08/12475/stats-wil...
EDIT:
R-squared values vary from 0 to 1. The closer to 1, the more likely that two statistics go hand in hand (correlate). Another way to look at that is to see how closely the data points hug the trend line (average relationship between the two stats). Let's compare TOP vs PPP:
If someone told you the difference in TOP, guessing the score differential would be like playing darts from the next bar over...blindfolded...after 4 rails...
If someone told you the difference in PPP, guessing the score differential would be like guessing the percentage of rushing plays GT will run in a game. Sure you won't be dead on, but you can be pretty confident of being within 5%.
And just for funsies, a table!!!
Red is our worst three performances per stat. Yellow is next two. Green is three best per stat.
You're missing the obvious here....
That's very clearly the EKG readout of a heartbeat, so obviously this goes to the core of the football team and directly reads out that it is what makes us tick.
Ergo, TOP = the most important thing
Even I have to give hokie07ME a turkey for his work effort alone, he's truly one dedicated fan.
:--)
Oh, so you're the one. Cheers!
PPP differential is not NEARLY as good an outcome predictor as PPG differential /s
btw, Hokies are undefeated with a TOP differential > 400 secs.
last one, I swear.
Here's those same charts only instead of only for the hokies this season, it's for every game played in 2005 (first batch of mass data I could get for free).
Thanks for the awesome visuals!
In short, because Time of Possession is a side effect of other aspects of the game, and has no direct cause on the outcome of the game on its own.
Put another way, because teams with leads try to drain the clock and teams behind try to keep time on it, winning causes teams to lead time of possession more than leading time of possession causes teams to win.
So you're saying we should value winning?
well, I would argue UT had no business beating us either and we beat them in TOP. Also, we lost TOP to Miami and stomped them on the field...
And we're playing in bad weather? Take it to the bank!
"Other than the slush game, Notre Dame is 4-6 this year"
Disregarding games against shit opponents, VT is undefeated on the season
I'm so happy to be in a position to ruin their bowl chances.
4-5, they also played in a hurricane, on a field that is apparently way less equipped for rain.
EDIT: I just realized you said "slush", which is not "mud". My bad.
Great analysis!
Note about a weird bug I've noticed with the site, though: Frequently, when there's a "contributor" post that appears, it shows up in the tracker as having been posted multiple hours in the past. This one, for example, showed up for me as "9 hours" ago even though it was posted at 8:30, and I know I didn't miss it because I just went through and read through everything that I'd missed overnight. Only saw it because I glanced back through the tracker (though it's now near the top of the tracker since other people commented on it).
What scares me is that our defense's personality is 2nd closest to TEMPLE.
I say Bud lights a fire under them this week...
Are you familiar with the current version of Temple football? Besides their excellent season last year that almost got Matt Rhule a bigger job.....like Virginia Tech....they have followed it up with another excellent season. Currently 7-3, 1st place in the AAC East and own quality wins over programs such as SMU, South Fla, Cincy and UCONN. They lost at Penn State by 7 and at Memphis by 7 (and got ambushed by Army 28-13 to start the season).
S&P currently has Temple at #26, two spots ahead of VT with O/D rankings of 64/12, very similar to VT's 65/14.
Yea, I am aware - just still attached to the stigma of 'Temple' ever since Ricky Hall's touchdown catch in 1998 to win the game over Temple in Blacksburg.
We didn't play Temple in 98.
Yeah! This! We're gonna... wait... W-W-W-L... ND-UVa-OH SHIT, WE GONNA DO THIS BOYS!
"do this" meaning win the ACC then crap the bed in our bowl game?
Just like old times.
Its the only way we'll truly be bak
You can bet your ass I'll take an ACCCG win over Clemson and a loss in the increasingly meaningless bowl game.
Yeah, living in Raleigh, there are enough annoying as shit ACC fans around that I would gladly live with this situation, if only for the ability to keep reminding everyone that we run this shit
That's a 5 star name right there.
Yeah, it's fantastic. Unfortunately, he may be an even better player.
Key and Peele are suing for copyright infringement.
Can't wait to hear announcers when Motuapuaka tackles this guy
Number 54 takes down number 6
If it is Lou Holtz then I hope they have some waterproof mics.
conservative estimate
Can't wait for everyone to pretend that we are the only team that gives up rushing yards to QB's. This fanbase genuinely doesn't even know what it's like to have a bad defense. Even in our worst years we are above average in the country and usually are still way above average in at least one area (pass def efficiency, etc).
Only if we lose. I am predicting a 35-17 Hokies win to knock Notre Dame out of bowl contention on senior day.
Who schedules senior day when the students are on break?
We do, every other year against UVA. Although, Notre Dame (like most schools, I've found) doesn't go on break until Wednesday. They did, however, have a week-long "mid-term break" in October.
VT is fairly unique in that we take the entire week off at Thanksgiving.
So we are going to win the next 3 including the ACCCG over clemson then lose in a New Years day bowl? I will take that #science
Gladly.
That just means go to Orlando and not the Bowl! Check.
W-W-W-L?
It's W-L-W-W since Frank announced his retirement and in my line of
workfun, we call that a paradiddle.Next year I'd really like to see 15 on a hand.
Sweet, so I speak your language. I was in VTDL, were you too? If so, who is this?
Nope. Not in VTDL. I taught HS drum lines while in school to offset some costs of being a college kid.
HA! I know what that is.
I'm not a drummer but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night
Does the Kick Return rating take fumbles, even ones not lost, in to account? If so I can see that contributing to the super low rating.
It is not explicitly written so I don't know. Fumbles recovered by the other team would almost have to be, but fumbles recovered by the returning team might not be.