When Fuente took over for Beamer last December, VT dodged a proverbial "bullet" as there was not a huge amount of transfers, kids not asked back, etc for the spring and fall of 2016. Certainly no "impact" guys left simply because there was a coaching change. Well for 2017, I think the writing is on the wall in terms of some more turnover than we typically have from year to year. We know the following "walked out" for senior day with eligibility remaining, certainly indicating that they are leaving:
Michael Santamaria
Devin Wilson
Curtis Williams
There are other scholarship guys that have already redshirted that are not even on the home dress squad (typically a sign they are very much buried on the depth chart/scout team guys) :
Billy Ray Mitchell
Xavier Burke
Shai McKenzie
Chris Durkin
Raymon Minor
DJ Reid- until the last couple games
I will venture to guess most of these guys wont be back in 2017. Interesting to discuss/ponder anyway. No, this is not at all meant to "diss" any player, and no this is not a "guru" post. Just throwing it out there for discussion.
Comments
I think Minor and Durkin come back.
I've just assumed that Isaiah and Bucky are headed to the NFL after this season.
I agree- Bucky has been here 4 years already and will graduate in December IIRC- so he should leave anyway- take hits at the NFL level while getting paid. Isaiah should leave as well if he gets a round 1-2 grade, which he certainly will.
Isaiah, yes, but Bucky, I don't know. He's been pretty inconsistent and still has a lot of developing to do, especially in blocking, body control and catching. Another year in college might do him some good.
You are correct, but he is a RS Junior, and will have his degree. He can improve his skills while getting paid. Really no reason to come back if he would be drafted in the first 4 rounds- why risk injury at that point if you have a degree?
I honestly think we have a better chance of keeping Ford for another year than Bucky. And while I say that, I fully anticipate losing them both.
Reid had some impressive runs Saturday. So maybe he'll be back.
Against a bad, worn down, spit-the-bit defense.
My first thought, not knowing who had the ball, was "that guy's kinda slow...must be a walk-on".
I'm afraid Travon might decide to go somewhere else if he doesn't get more carries.
I would not be surprised at all. The problem is that unless we sign a guy like Slade and/or Holston, there STILL wont be a "Fuente-type" back on the roster if Travon leaves. McClease is not that guy either WADR. RB is a huge concern IMO.
don't get all the hype for Holston personally. I think he'll be a solid player, but putting him in the same category as slade or devyn ford is disrespect to those two. Holston would just further cloudy the rb carry picture. Still won't have a true #1 type guy until '18 at the earliest.
Ford is amazing, but he is still a long ways away. I am not as high on Slade as some. I may be wrong though- running back is really difficult to evaluate until you see them in person against top talent.
Travon isn't going anywhere . You can't blame Rodgers getting a lot of carries and playing time this year . Travon is still learning the position and has had key fumbles this year . That is part of the reason he didn't get many caries after he fumbled on Saturday . Shai is gone for sure. And rogers is graduating. He has every opportunity to be the main back next year .
Everyone on the lower list is a Sophomore or lower. I don't think there is an expectation that everyone will be producing and high on the roster in their first couple years.
That usually requires exceptional talent from that individual, or a lack of other talent at the position.
If Bucky were being used as a true tight end, we wouldn't be seeing as much of Cunningham.
Typically 2nd and 3 year scholarship guys are on the "varsity" or home dress squad, though. I'm not talking about walk ons here or the travel squad. I'm talking about guys that are on scholarship, and have been in the program over a year that are 3rd string and not even special teamers- those kids "typically" are the ones to leave/transfer out early.
I heard Lawson might transfer.
Really strange how things turned out with Shai and Durkin this season - I thought both would make a big impact. I hope they both stick around, but no idea what's going on with that situation.
Durkin's been dealing with an undisclosed injury I believe.
If I remember correctly, I think Durkin had a hernia or something right as camp was wrapping up or just as the season was kicking off. I think it put him behind the curve, especially with the position change and the new offense compounding matters further. He is such a great athlete and I think there is a place for him in this offense, hope he can stick around and give it another full off season.
Shai tweeted a response to Mike Barber on saturday saying he has been trying to earn scout team player of the week since week 6...and not even sure how to read into that tweet response by him, it seemed sarcastic and it seemed like a big boy team first comment all in one.
I had a hard time reading that Shai tweet as well, although I'm trying to read it in the most positive light.
Right?! I read it the first time and was convinced he is pissed off. Then read it again and thought, shit maybe he is being a team first guy. Not surprisingly, this is also how 90% of the arguments with my wife begin, through text.
With Shai on the scout team and Juice and McClease coming back from I juries, I think DJ Reid sticks around.
On a positive note:
Former Ocean Lakes 4* ATH and Army All-American Jason Lewis.
Great news for our RB depth. Even though he probably can't play for us next year, it may help our recruiting in 757.
Why is a guy that was 4th string at a modestly lesser program potentially transferring to VT considered great news? If he wasn't once a 4 star, nobody would care or notice.
Did he ever play at ASU?
6-3 249lbs and never got going at RB sitting at 4th string. Apparently coaches moved him to LB about a month ago but has only seen Special Teams.
TSL Insider says this ain't happening (coming to us).
I for one am fine with him NOT coming to VT!! He is a straight up and down runner and did well against lesser competition because he was older than most in high school.
Would be nice, but this year has taught me to ask a crucial question:
Can he hold onto the dang ball?
*edited for dum-dum typo and for your gif-viewing pleasure
Billy Ray Mitchell is a big time hokie guy on twitter, don't see him leaving. It's difficult to speculate on these matters because we assume that anyone not playing is: upset about not getting playing time, in the doghouse, or is not a fit for our scheme.
These things are always possible but there could also be nagging, undisclosed injuries. Additionally, we assume every kid not playing is frustrated and actively seeking a transfer opportunity. This is the case sometimes, but many times these kids stick it out for their education, their friends on the team, etc. It honestly makes me a little upset how willing everyone seems to be to create narratives that we have little to no actual information about.
We do have actual information. They are not listed on the injury report, they are not on the home dress squad, they are not on special teams. That is their "playing" /"injury" status. plain and simple. That part is not speculating. Also keep in mind, it is not always the player's choice to stick around- harsh, but true. College teams can and do "cut" players. VT has been immune to much of that for the Frank Beamer era, but it is a reality elsewhere.
This part is factual, any assumption/narrative created about them being upset, frustrated, in the doghouse, etc. is not substantiated by any or much information.
That said, it is very naive to assume that players not dressing have to be fully healthy if they aren't on the injury report. Durkin/Mckenzie very well could be dealing with nagging injuries and in all likelihood they are, as they are recovering from injuries that are very easy to have back slides and tweaks during recovery.
I agree with this. People make all decisions for all reasons, and it might not boil down to just playing time or lack thereof. The players put a lot of time and focus in, and make big sacrifices in social and personal lives in order to play at a high level. I think we just hope that they'll perfect their craft and bust out of relative anonymity as soon as they get a chance.
Simultaneously, I understand the interest level, since attrition news always gives the tiniest peek into the guts of the program. And it goes without saying that we sign a good deal more recruits than end up making it to Senior Day.
Thought Devin Wilson was a senior, wouldn't that mean he doesn't have any eligibility remaining?
For football he is a RS Junior- he could play in 2017 if he chose to.
This is a fun way to start my Monday...
I know, right? We just stomped our rival and the first thread I see is "who is jumping ship?"
I can't see why anyone would not want to stick around to be part of the first VT team to win the national championship unless they were projected as a first round draft pick.
The title of this thread should have the word "SPECULATION" in quotes, cap letter, bolded and italicized - because there is a 100% chance that at some point some people will reference a post(s) here as fact or a legitimate source.
This is the point I was making about how silly it is to create the baseless narratives off little or no information because over time people start to believe it's true. It's the same way some players develop a "he doesn't work hard" view of a player with no information at all, just because it was suggested a few times and the confirmation bias kicks in and people forget it was all speculation in the first place.
None of what I posted is a "baseless narrative". I gave my rationale for my "speculation" plain and clear. Guys in the program, on scholarship, not in the 3 deep basically. that is not "baseless" at all- the rationale is simple and clear. I didn't list a bunch of starters that I am predicting won't come back, and I sure as hell did not hint at ANYTHING other than their years in the program and dress squad status.
Not specifically directed at you, but threads like these create the saga of facilitating the rumor speculations, followed by confirmation bias, then we end up with half the fan base holding an opinion on a player that isn't based in truth. THAT is what I am trying to avoid.
edit: didn't downvote you and legged you to get back.
I guess speculation being right there in the title is not strong enough? sheesh... I never indicated it was anything BUT speculation.
If I thought it was enough, I wouldn't have written what I wrote.
Frankly "barely informed - at best - guessing about real college kids' futures" might have been more appropriate.
Normally, but I thought the OP did a good job of making this as quantifiable as possible. They list those who walked during senior day and those who are upperclassmen who haven't been dressing out. The supposition could have been left out, but at least there was a method to the speculation.
I appreciate that.
Not "barely informed"- of you think so, please refute what I posted. The only thing contradicting me thus far IS speculation about injuries that I didn't even bring up.
I wasn't referring to your initial post per se, but what it will create. But since you asked:
"I will venture to guess most of these guys wont be back in 2017."
Throwing out a bunch of possibly relevant facts followed by a guess is still just a guess. And probably not a very good one when some of the most important factors may be completely unknown.
I understand talking about on-field performance, but speculating, guessing, or whatever you want to call it about the off-the-field life decisions of college kids seems IMO only to unnecessarily serve as a conduit to creating unfounded rumors masquerading to some as fact.
I think you meant educated prediction. May not be a well-educated prediction, but if we are going to define words accurately, a guess based on facts is a prediction on learned events. In fact, it's the entire basis of computer models that you have often cited.
The prediction on the facts cited may not be accurate, but the OP does a really good job of qualifying his prediction. Anyone sourcing this as fact is at fault for their own misunderstanding, not the OP.
a + 12 + c + d = 37 is not an educated prediction. It's a guess...a partially informed guess.
Why is everyone all up in a tizzy about this? The guy simply wanted to generate a discussion. Title clearly states it is speculation, and he clearly states that he is not disparaging any player. Sounds just like half the posts on this site. Give the guy a break. He's not insulting anyone..so what's the big deal?
I mean, we can save this and talk about it in the off season as opposed to shit posting constantly about how cake is superior and that Rich Rod may actually be our lord and savior.
We're not upset. I think the timing was just off to me because it was the first thing. It's like coming home to a girlfriend or wife after you got a pay raise, and paid off all your debt, and you just booked tickets for an awesome vacation to kick Clemson's ass, and she asks why you haven't taken out the garbage. Like, man, cut loose.
I don't know. I'm rambling.
Edit: It's been almost 3 hours and no Fireman gif. Should we send help?
Anyone checked in on Fireman lately? That's twice now I've seen RR without any gifs.
Yep. I don't see how this is any more damaging to VT or a lesser quality thread than another link to UVA's crappy forums or another fishing update.
At least we're talking about VT here. Not sure why everyone came to fight about it.
I for one even learned some things in this thread about what a couple of these players have been up to, so I consider the discussion worthy.
Again, I don't think anyone came to fight. Half the posts are "I think x because y." Hell, half of them are just "I think x."
Let's speculate on something more fun! How many games will we win next year, over under 70+ against UVA next year, if Nick Acree gets any larger will he register himself as a sovereign nation?
I think I saw one source in the entirety of this thread so it doesn't do much for me. There's tons of recruiting news to dig into, bowl predictions, a basketball season, a final 8 run from our soccer team, a top 10 wrestling program, and we decide to talk about guys leaving who haven't seen the field this year.
Again, not here to fight, just stating what came to mind at 9 AM.
I love you beautiful bastards.
Ya'll need to relax... nothing wrong with discussing things that aren't cheerful/happy/optimistic/etc. As long as the conversation is healthy and respectful, I don't see any problems at all. Attrition is part of the game - kids realize that their window of opportunity is closing at one place and move on to fulfill their dreams elsewhere.
I like to keep up with the Roster and I think this is a Good discussion to have knowing we need to re-fill some key positions. First on the three who walked out for senior Day:
Michael Santamaria
Devin Wilson
Curtis Williams
I think SantaMaria had a scholarship and was highly touted but Joey Slye has been on Fire and who can blame MS for possibly graduating early and maybe getting a shot with another School. I think Devin Wilson was either gonna come in and make a difference or get in line. Sometimes it's just reality. Can't say much about CW, I think he was on Special teams. Good luck to all three.
On Durkin, Injuries can set a player back, I think this is the 2nd straight fall he had an injury. I hope he bounces back, someone needs to fill Sam Rogers position. As for Shai, its injuries and then trying to gel with a new staff, i think its a combo of those two things. It'll be hard for him right at the moment. I hope he sticks around, perhaps work real hard in the off-season and get a role on the team. I feel for Shai, but remember we had guys like Joel Caleb and Nick Dew and some others that just didn't pan out but I think Shai has a chance.
I don't think T-Mac is going to transfer. He's leading in rushing among backs, and Fuente has also used him in the receiving game and especially on Screens where he showed his patience and speed and scored some TDs. NFL teams love that kind of stuff.
DJ Reid showed me something in that UVA game. I wonder if Fuente is just sort of hanging on to him in case of emergency? I feel with Marshawn out, he has a shot to show something and maybe finds himself onto the field.
I think the key for all these guys is willingness to understand that Fuente uses guys in multiple ways (and use multiple weapons) and they have to adjust to that. If guys get all purpose yards, they will get looks in the NFL. That's just how fuente is, I think he still needs to convince some of these guys to stick around.
I think winning the Coastal will also encourage one or two recruits out there. Its definitely huge for us and we get get some talent on both sides of the ball.
Either way...go Hokies all the way....I hope the best for these young men...and hope to see them succeed in a Hokies uniform and in the classroom.
I think who is utilized most during the bowl game will be telling, because it probably means they had the best month of practice leading up to it. Really hoping Dragon kills it during December and has a 100+ game in our bowl.
Kind of feel like this season went by so fast for him.
I said all spring that I didn't understand why the staff felt that DJ Reid is a tier below the other backs. He is bigger and just as strong as Rogers and Peoples, and he has a little more twitch. I am not saying he is a 25 carry a game guy, but as a guy who could get you 6 on first down on a mediocrity-type blocked play, I think he would have a role (especially with Williams injured.)
My dad and I were talking during the UVA game about McKenzie, wondering what had happened with him...then a little while later (I think on UVA's TD), the announcers were talking about the safety, Shai McKenzie getting beat. Anyone else catch that?
edit: May have just been a mistake on their part, as CB Curtis Williams evidently shares the #28 with Shai
It was bad/lazy announcers.
Kelly Stouffer may be worse as an analyst than he was as a quarterback. As a 1988 Seahawks fan, I can tell you that was really bad.