Well my bat signal came up and I honestly should have gotten around to this sooner. The track on the snow storm this weekend has been really tricky to track and I've been on little to no wifi for almost a month (writing a thesis on this has been....frustrating) making weather forecasts tricky. Its really easy to visualize the systems when the model can play at full speed, much harder at 1/20th speed. I also apologize for a lack of a report for the belk bowl, hope you guys enjoyed the wind and the butt whooping!
that moment eshiben5 sees his APB
This weekend we're presented with a very interesting system, the tracks for most of the models. Most of the models earlier this week had the system pushing itself out to sea before making landfall. However as the rest models of once again play catch-up to the Euro composite the system has tracked further and further north with the brunt of the system hitting Virginia Beach. The system is taking a nor'easter track which is really synonymous with heavy snowfall. Nor'easters pick up tons of moisture from the gulf and trend northeastward up the coast (or sometimes in the mountains of blacksburg IE 2014) dropping all of that moisture in the mid atlantic hugging up the coast. Basically all you need are cool enough temperatures for snow flakes to form and you are much more prone to gaining lots of snowfall in these scenarios. Nor'easters can form during spring and summer months too, however they're much more dangerous in winter months as snowflakes build up much easier. Every once in a while you'll here about a "liquid equivalent ratio" when discussing snowflakes...or more likely wet and heavy or dry snow. Basically what this means is how much moisture is in the snowflakes as they freeze, in some scenarios 1" of rain could be equivalent to easily a foot of snow or more.
this weekend we're staring down the barrels of a nor'easter that like i mentioned before will be trending north, giving us quite the storm on our hands for the Virginia beach area. That region and the northeastern region of North Carolina should see the most snowfall along with some heavy winds as the system pushes up the shoreline with snowfall totals reaching around 8.5" of snow in the region. The cutoff is pretty steep however with richmond seeing possibly 4" of snow. Gusts should be hitting around 30 mph as well easily creating white-out conditions. I expect it to start as rainfall tomorrow evening before switching over to snow around midnight or 1 that should continue to ~6 PM saturday the heaviest being around 6 AM and noon. Be careful beach hokies! Keep an eye on some precipitation around the Louisiana region it should start popping up in the next few hours.
PS if you have any questions about specific areas please do not hesitate to ask I'll try to frequent the site more tonight and tomorrow!
Comments
I'm sure me, Alum07, and some of the other Raleigh-Durham area Hokies are wondering where those snowfall totals are going to be. I've seen everything from 1-2" to 5-8", depending if they group us with the northeastern side of the state or the central/western part of the state. Should be a fun night tomorrow.
I never thought I'd be glad to dodge a storm by moving north from Greensboro back to PA... but I think we're about to.
As well as my poor self in ECU land. Greenville expected to get between 1-8 inches.
*sigh* no kidding.
They're saying a minimum of 5 inches and upwards of 9 or 10 here. Light showers starting around noon should make the drive home unbearable today. Might have to cut through RDU just to avoid the chaos. Salted the crap out of my driveway this morning, just in case (about a 20 degree climb toward the street and it doesn't get sun... yay).
And we all know how well Raleigh handles a little bit of snow...
Attacking snow with fire, very smart. Somebody paid attention in science class. You Raleigh-ites clearly know what you're doing.
Someone thought they could just redline a 98 Corolla for a few minutes and everything would be fine.
It wasn't fine
That would have been a Bitch to put out. Between the sheer volume of traffic, deep snow and idiot drivers trying to kill you.
That picture is misleading. The opposite angle shows the real culprit.
Welcome to snow in the south! It's the same way in SC. We got some ice/snow mix last year on a Friday, and on my 20ish mile commute to work on Monday, I saw probably 30-40 wrecked cars on the sides of I-85.
How does your Camaro handle ice/snow? Do you have summer tires or m+s tires?
I'll let you know the first time I get to try... Last year I couldn't get the thing up my driveway and ended up working from home for a week or so, hence the salt this morning.
Still on the Pirelli's, though. So I suspect it'll be iffy at best. Probably just use the wife's Altima if we have to get out this weekend.
that's when you know you live in the south: your bad weather vehicle of choice is an altima...
WTF! When it snows in RTP do cars just combust! Its like friggin Organtown but you use your cars instead of your couches!
Here on the middle peninsula we're expecting as much as 11", likely a bit less, but it does sound like the typical nor'easter. Man, I was hoping to have left this stuff behind when I moved away from the mountains, but nooooo. Glad it's the weekend for all the commuters, I'll just tuck in and hope the lights stay on. Wouldn't want to miss the Fla. St. game. Luckily, I do have a generator.
Good luck all, stay safe!
Nothing in Christiansburg overnight. We'll see what tonight brings. Looks like this one misses us.
I just saw the Winterplace and Snowshoe cams, 3" and 5" respectively overnight.
Can I get a hell yea for eshiben being the best weather reporter that the earth has ever known!? Thanks man!
Thank you sir. Even though the news sucks for Richmond!
Did not even get a dusting in Alexandria after they were calling for 1-3 inches, week sauce
I never heard anything about 1-3 inches in Alexandria (or Arlington, where I live)
Always heard "less than one inch possible" which essentially equates to 0
Also, if you expected any sort of accumulation on the first snowfall of the season when it was in the low 60s last week, you're crazy
Mabey they meant 1-3 walkers?
The Beach is ready.
Live from eshiban's radar station on the coast. Checking in, all clear.
Thanks Eshiben, don't know if you saw my post on the previous weekly weather report but this is exactly what I was hoping for, you are the man! And while this does not improve my hopes of making it out of Virginia Beach in a reasonable manner on Sunday it helps to be as prepared as possible.
By any chance did it snow in Blacksburg last night??
Nope, dry as bone in the window behind me.
That's what I thought. Co-worker called out today and put on FB
"Really coming down in Blacksburg". What an idiot
Why is there a bone in your window? /s
Civil/Environmental Engineer. I have all kinds of weird crap that I found on environmental inspections.
Just started snowing about an hour ago here on the homefront. I think we'll get about an inch this weekend.
4" of snow.
Or as you guys all say, "About 6 and a half inches"
Burn
Not the first time I've told someone to expect 6-8 inches and they were disappointed
(sorry did that cross the line)
I work for Bobcat. Specifically I manage our dealerships rental department. All I can say about the snow in this line of work is
I need you to find me a buyer for my snowblower. Not a big after market down here in coastal SC.
What kind is it (mfg and model #) and what do you want for it?
Email me hsorlp at yahoo. Com
Really you bought a snowblower?
[ mod edit: no nudity man, we've been through this ]
Yes when I lived in Ohio for 6 years.
eshiben, what is your opinion on how it is shaping up for the Outer Banks? Over the past 24 hours I've heard: nothing but rain, 1-3" snow, 6-8" snow, back to 1-3" snow, icy mix, and back to 1-3" snow
On a sidenote, I'm certain that sfw photos of Anaridis Rodriguez of the Weather Channel will aid to keeping us toasty warm
Sheena Parveen just joined the NBC4 Weather Team in DC just this week, and she is also spot on (with her forecasts, or course).
We have Nikki-Dee Ray here in Richmond. And when you are bored some time read all about the nude picture scandal that ran her out of Lubbock. Its worth the read. There is even a rap song about it.
Reddit Link
I'm sure all these ladies are very qualified...
I definitely haven't spent a disturbing amount of time scouring the interwebs for those pics. That was some other guy. Wait, no one accused me of anything?
we've entered weird TKP after dark
I see your Anaridis Rodriguez, Sheena Parveen, and Nikki-Dee Ray, and I raise you....DON MOTHERFUCKING SLATER!
i hate watch him ... since 1979 or something.
I bet this guy takes after Seth Dooley
WAVY-TV 10 FTW.
true bco story .... my jr yr prom date.
/eat it kids.
Is that a heart tattoo on her left arm?
And then the acne disapeared!
I"m cracking myself up tonight. I have cabin fever!
oh........Nikki. The fave of my barber shop!
I've got to travel to Fredericksburg this evening then back tomorrow morning/afternoon (not too bad since I just live further north and west in NoVA). Everywhere I've seen forecasts us for roughly an indefinite suspension in inches of snow...so I'm not complaining.
So I won't need to write a note on the back of my hand to make sure my uber has 4 wheel drive tonight?
I'm just waiting for eshiben to tell me that snow is cold, and that I should wear a coat outside, and drive real carefully to the grocery store to stock up.
That's what the weather dudes are telling us here. Thank God for those guys.
my guy is saying everyone should go buy milk, bread, and snow shovels. And for some reason he's getting out some popcorn and smiling maniacally...
My mom is flying to Charlotte from Roanoke tomorrow. She said all flights in Roanoke cancelled for today; not sure if that's just something random she thinks or all destination airports are under snow
Not sure why ROA is cancelling everything... It's only flurried within the last couple hours and local news is calling for 1-4" tops here...
because they have to fly througg charolette which will have tons of snow and could be ugly
Any idea for the area north of Charlotte? I'm in Mooresville, NC, about 20 miles north of the city.
Awesome... now I'm seeing the Weather Channel saying we could get upwards of 12 inches in Raleigh.... So that's good
UPDATE: the model is currently running so i cant get specific numbers right now but it looks like its taken a turn for the worse, really wanna wait for exact numbers but it looks like a goor chunk of north carolina is gonna get some snow and richmond could be up towards 4-6" with va beach getting closer to like a foot. i dunno if i trust the exact amounts the euro is throwing at me right now (looks like it could be as much as 16" in some places in va beach) exact numbers will be up shortly, ill give richmond a look, va beach a look, charolette, and greensboro. anywhere else?
pic for your thoughts...i figure the wxrisk guy does it so i dont see a problem with it
Fredericksburg.
you have my number haha just text me! 4-5" is my early guess though
So... like that super dark purple... how much does that represent, because if I'm not mistaken, that's blanketing Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
bout a foot, hence why im waiting for the model to finish the run, it gives me exact tables with specific values hourly. i usually compare that to radar, and the gfs and occasionally the gem/nam as we get closer. but the blacker color is around 12-13 pink is like 10-12
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu............
safe to assume we won't get much accumulation in Arlington?
dusting probably
'bout what I figured...also, as someone who likes the snow, that is disappointing. But it's for the best for this area...we just can't handle it here
From almost exactly a year ago:
Ok, friends and I were planning a trip to the Pigeon Forge area this weekend. I'm gonna put my faith in you, go or no go?EDIT: Okay yeah, nevermind. Staying in and drinking some hot chocolate is a much, much better idea
depends where and when youre leaving from. if youre coming from eastern virginia or north carolina i would cancel that trip. if youre leaving from west virginia there might be an inch of snow on the ground but i imagine major highways will be taken care of. id reccomend no honestly though but im a worry wart
oh yeah that would have been important to mention, I'm in Blacksburg
But it looks like it avoids us here at the SC Coast right? Because they are salting driveways and businesss already, they are already freaking out.
probably but if it moves south, that could be a significant issue better to be safe than sorry
Fireman, don't trash the snowblower. I'm just kidding. I'm interested, I'll get w u monday.
Everyone be safe out there.
Christiansburg has 1 inch so far and radar shows a break until nearly midnight.
Update tomorrow am, time to drink at home!
I can even offer deliver on spring game and some game days.
How much is Beamersville (Hooville) and Moseley supposed to get?
Final Forecasts (Until tonight)
Raleigh - Snow Accum- 10" of snow (starts as rain friday night, switches over to heavy snowfall (heaviest portion being saturday morning)
winds - sustained ~10 mph gusts reaching 20 during peak of the storm
Charlotte - 9" of snow, should slow down by saturday afternoon, peak of storm once more saturday morning. Winds reaching sustained speed ~10 mph gusts hitting ~15-20 MPH
Fredericksburg ~4" of snow sustained winds ~10 MPH (shouldnt be much of an issue)
NOVA - ~1-2" satruday afternoon and evening could see some strengthening winds
VA Beach - Snow accum ~12" sustained winds ~20 mph gusts ~ 30 mph (heaviest portion still saturday evening into saturday morning)
Richmond - 7" of snow (this number might be the toughest to forecast, if the storm tracks just a tad east this number could easily fall to 4) winds shouldnt be to big of an issue for you guys either, some gusts may hit ~15 mph
Charolettesville - ~2" of snow some weak winds too you guys should get off pretty light on this one
blacksburg - I disagree with the euro here (its calling for about 4" which seems kind of fluky) I'd expect~ 2" here as well shouldnt be much of note
NOTE: Temperatures will drop rapidly the next following days, if the snow melts expect refreezing and temperatures in the teens.
B'burg would encompass Roanoke, correct?
yuuuup
Can't wait for the 10"-12" here in Nah-fak ("Norfolk" for the un-ed-uma-cated). Having lived the majority of my life in Southwest VA I think it'll be fun, although I don't think my fellow Nah-fakian's feel the same.
Whelp it was nice knowing you 757 people, Jim Cantore is headed your way.
I pray for thundersnow
you kid but every meteorolgist loses their shit over that stuff
One in the Hooker is worth two in the Bush?Edit: wrong fucking thread. I need to TKP better.
Drink!
don slater says there is nothing to worry about here, folks.
2:07 AM Saturday morning in Cary (Raleigh), NC:
Nothing but ice. But so much of it on the grass and on the cars that you would mistake it for snow.
8am and still only ice... But a hell of a lot of it
This is going to be an absolute mess to clean up. They predicted 8-10 inches of snow... We get about 1 inch of ice... *Sigh*
Like most, I'd rather have had the snow.
8:22 am in Richmond. Id say 4-5 inches. Looks like it will end around 1:00.
Lots of rain overnight and this morning here it's starting to get colder down to 38.
8:40 am, christiansburg. Looks like 5" so far, still coming down. Radar looks like we'll get another hour or so of snowfall. Temp is a balmy 14...
Going out to take pics n then I've got some work to do (shoveling...).
Be safe out there.
Weather channel now says snow stopping from 11 to noon. But I concur on the 5+" in Christiansburg.
9:12 am, We have about 6" so far and the snow is still falling in Floyd County (Carthage).
Dumb question: how does one post their own photos on here (be it from a mobile device or desk/laptop)?
Save your pics to your PC. Go to post image com it will ask to select image. Choose your pic from the PC folder and copy the 2nd mark down link.
I just use imgur on my phone's browser and upload there. Could do it from my desktop, but that just adds another step to the process. Let me know if you're having problems.
I'm in Bristol Va and heading to Cove Point in Lusby MD. Is that close to where you are? Whats the roads look like?
Good luck!
Snow flurries were seen in Florence SC and the law and order have started to break down here in SC. I have stocked up on bread and milk and have armed the children.
O God the snow flurries have moved closer, it's now about 25 minutes west of us.