So I got to thinking after the Clemson win. Unfortunately Seth only has 8-9 (very optimistically) games left in a Tech jersey. While he has certainly overcome a lot in his two years in Blacksburg, does he have any chance to make it to the next level?
Personally I think he is comparable to Joel Berry, both in stats and size, who I've seen listed as a late second pick if he leaves early. Seth's 48% from three and his offensive efficiency should at least be worth a look from some teams in my opinion. He's also shooting over 54% from the floor which is 8th best in the ACC. And he's doing that as a guard.
My question is this. What, if it's even possible, does Seth have to do to get a solid chance to be drafted this year?
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Think Seth could probably get on a summer league squad, but I think he could have a very long and successful career in Europe.
Yep, he has a chance to make some nice cash over there.
Fits that type of mold as a player too. Elite scorer.
Sounds reasonable to me, quarters or semis in the ACCCT followed by a sweet-16 appearance. Optimistically I see 13 games left.
More on-topic, I don't watch the NBA closely at all but if Erick Green was only able to hang onto a roster for a year I don't see Seth Allen really getting a shot.
13? 10 would be wildly optimistic
There was supposed to be a minor implied "/s" there, as 13 games would imply us making both the ACCT and NCAAT championship games.
Question while we're on the Green topic: I read below about Delaney's path to the NBA. I'm wondering why Green couldn't do something similar or ever get back and have success. I mean, Delaney wasn't even drafted.
Green very well may have success one day, all depends on team needs. This is Delaney's first year in the league and he's been out of VT for years. It's not that uncommon in today's NBA for a guy to spend several years overseas and then come back to the states and make noise. Brandon Jennings, Michael Beasley, and our boy Malcolm did it, so it very well could happen some day.
Brandon Jennings was an NBA talent out of high school that only went to Europe because he wasn't going to qualify academically to play in college. He entered the draft after one season in Europe. Beasely was almost the same. Neither of them had to prove they were essentially the best player in Europe for a few years to garner a second tier contract offer from the NBA.
If Seth doesn't make the NBA on his initial entry (which we hope he does), one guy has proven that the road to the NBA goes through many paths: Malcolm Delaney
For real. Europe doesn't mean that you can't play in the NBA one day.
I was getting ready to make the same point. I think Seth's most realistic path to the NBA is to follow Delaney's footsteps. His size just doesn't translate to the NBA without Steph Curry-like shooting skills. He does however have the talent and the heart to do quite well for himself in the Euro leagues, I believe. A few years there of developing his game further and proving himself against professional opposition could very well open the door to an NBA opportunity.
Steph Curry's career shooting stats:
46.7% FG, 41.2% FG3, 87.6% FT
Seth Allen career:
42.8% FG, 35.2% FG3, 75.1% FT
'16-'17:
55.4% FG, 48.9% FG3, 68.3% FT
edit: should have noted, those are Steph's college career shooting stats
Leg for the stats.
Steph has one of many advantages over Seth though - that cold-blooded quick release. I haven't seen a quick release like that since Drazen Petrovic.
Upvote for the Drazen Petrovic reference.
He's not an NBA prospect right now. His only real strength is his ability to score which would be ok if he were taller, but he's going to be tough sell as draft pick given his size. He's listed as 6'1. He's probably shorter. The NBA has trended to big guards (6'4 or taller, lots of wingspan) so he's going to have a tough go of it regardless. If he had more natural PG tendencies, he might have a shot but that's not the case. He's also pretty much a zero on the defensive side of the ball. Europe is most likely for him, which is still a pretty good thing. Lots of cash has come into the top Euro leagues in recent years. But if he's going to latch on with an NBA team, he'll need to focus on rounding out his game a lot more.
LeDay might have the better chance at getting a late 2nd round spot or make a roster undrafted. He's a smart, gritty player. He's undersized but strong enough to make up for it against most guys. If he can develop a consistent 3 point shot (specifically a corner shot), he could make for a good 3 and D PF off the bench.
LeDay is grossly undersized for the NBA blocks. To make the same argument you made for Allen, LeDay is listed at 6'7" 235, that's your typical NBA 2-3 wing. If you think Zach's gonna be pushing around low post 4's or have the athleticism to chase around stretch 4's that are 4-5 inches taller with actual perimeter skills, go for it. But I think you'll be disappointed rather quickly
Zach's perimeter game isn't even ACC level good (offensively), much less NBA quality.
I agree with you that the NBA is trending towards taller, longer guards specifically PGs. Allen isn't that at all. Mike Conley is a good size comparison point, but hell, he was the #4 overall pick his draft year and was a true freshman. Allen's game is a dime a dozen in the eyes of any NBA executive and he doesn't have any specific intangibles that jump out at you (maybe other than he happens to be a lefty). He's hardly an elite scorer as referenced in a previous comment, hell he's currently 29th in the ACC in ppg at 12.8 with only 2 games of 20+ on the season. That's not "elite". Yea, he's made a few timely buckets, but that doesn't make him elite.
Zach's NBA aspirations aren't much better than Allen's and, as you mentioned, should both set their sights on Europe for further development with hopes of maybe making a D-League roster in the next 3-5 yrs. One could get picked up for a summer league and/or a training camp look, but I think even that is a stretch.
Not saying either aren't good players, just the reality of the quality and depth of NBA rosters and the reality of what type of players these two guys are.
So essentially, to answer the original post's question of what Allen has to do to improve his draft stock?
My answer: Average 25+ for the remainder of the season, single-handedly carry VT to the ACCCG (win or lose), win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, and put up a gutsy showing to whoever they may fall to in said tourney loss. Then, MAYBE, just maybe, he has a chance at being a late 2nd rounder.
Oh I don't think LeDay makes it either. I was just pointing out that if we're talking NBA prospects for this year, LeDay is the player with the best shot. It's not a particularly good shot, but it's better than Allen's. He is undersized but there's a number of teams playing forwards that are 6'8 to 6'9 so he wouldn't be terribly outsized. He's not as one dimensional as Allen and like I said, if he can expand his 3 point perimeter game between now and during the summer league, he might be able to eek out a spot. Likely? No. But possible with some work.
He'll also need a completely different shooting motion. His 3s would get blocked by everyone in the entire NBA. His form reminds me of Barkley's golf swing.
Not trying to hate on him, and I love his 3pt%, but that hitch won't fly in the pros
If this guy can last long in the pros with that shooting form, there's hope for anyone.
Hasn't it been statistically proven that shooting foul shots granny style is more accurate
Seems legit. Ball would have more of an arc and thus would have a better angle on the rim. Of course, this only helps if people literally cannot attempt to block your shot...
I think there's something about the ball getting a better roll too since its typically not spinning as fast and you're going to put a better rotation on it
...
I have yet to see anyone attempt to block a foul shot.
Yes I suppose I meant that was why we would only ever see a granny shot for foul shots.
The real question is why don't we see it more often?
The "pretty much a zero" on defense comment is definitely debatable. While Seth is not going to win a defensive award, I for one have definitely seen him play some lockdown this year, and he can get a hand in there to poke the ball loose from time to time. (He's tied with Zach LeDay for 2nd on the team in steals per game.)
My biggest knock on Allen is the turnover rate. He's got to take better care of the basketball.
IMHO, his ceiling is a taller Isaiah Thomas (The PG in Boston, not the HOF), his floor is the best player at the YMCA in Woodbridge...so yeah I don't know.
I dont see either of them making it long term in the NBA as currently equipped. I also would never recommend they come back to play in the D-League or by the time they are eligible the NBA Gatorade League since it is being renamed for next season. Very few if any players seem to transition well from the D League to the NBA although that may change as the new collective bargaining agreement allows for two way contracts between the two leagues similar to MLB.
I honestly dont see either of them being as successful as Delaney in Europe either. Delaney always had the talent to be an NBA regular but when he came out there were two major factors against him. First, the league at that time was looking for more pass first, control tempo point guards which gets to the second factor, Delaney while at Tech, because he was so relied upon to score, never was really able to showcase his ability to hit open shooters.
The sad part about Delaney coming back this season is that to do so he took an almost $4 million pay cut per year. He did it though in hopes of getting a second deal after this first one is done that would get him into the middle to upper half NBA money.
No offense to Allen or Leday but I dont see them going over to a Euro team and transforming them into champions overnight. Delaney did that three or four times while also earning multiple league and tournament MVP awards before coming back this season. At least this time he got a decent deal from Atlanta, the last time an NBA team offered him was Houston and they wanted to give him 3 years for $900K total, when he was about to make $6.2 mil from his team in Russia.
I could see Leday going to Israel and having some steady success since Jeff Allen went there and did quite well over the years. Seth I could see following more the Delaney model but taking a longer time to flourish. He really needs to work on his passing skills and defense if he wants to be in the NBA.
What about (sorry to be a repetitive bell here) Mr. Green?
I think Green is a more reliable ball handler than Allen and has the better size to fit what NBA teams are looking for but never really got a legitimate shot to show what he can do. He also didnt help himself when with the Nuggets by averaging less than 1 assist per game while playing 9.5 minutes per contest. That just doesnt scream PG to anyone. He seems to be doing ok as a starter for Olympiacos in Greece considering they are 17-1 and in first place of the A1 league and 16-6 in third place in the Euroleague. He is putting up 10 points, 2.3 Rebounds, and 1.5 assists per contest. Again though, he still isnt getting great assist numbers which i think he will need to improve over there before getting a legitimate shot with an NBA squad.
So what about Clarke? Seems like consensus that he's the best NBA prospect. Do you think he could stick in the league?
I've never seen Clarke as much of a NBA prospect to be honest unless he gets a jumper. There's not a whole lot of 6'6 SF/PFs in the NBA that don't have to be guarded outside the paint. Draft Express has him as the 52nd best prospect in the ACC too but that might not have been updated from preseason
Hopefully we have 2 more years of him to help develop that. I think he's the most NBA-ready right now of anyone on the roster, but I also don't think we currently have anyone who is actually NBA-ready.
There is a part of me that wants him to take all of next year to rehab his knee and develop a nice shot while redshirting. That leaves him with 2 years of playing with Buzz after rehab.
There is a big part of me that would rather this than having him come back too soon which with his bull in the china shop playing style makes me think he might try to do.
I think JRob has a shot, but I don't get the sense he worked very hard last summer. He has two summers left. If he wants his shot he has to crush his problem areas each summer. Even if he is angling toward Europe I think he needs to score more.
I know for alot of you cool aid drinkers he is the perfect player, but lets get real. He isn't on track to get drafted. For good reasons. Hope someone he is close to gives him the hard / good advice.
There's a 0% chance JRob gets drafted. Small, turnover prone point guards who don't shoot the lights out don't get drafted
Didn't help that he didn't score very efficiently when he was on the court for Denver, which is his big attraction. In general I think people don't appreciate how tough it is to stick in the NBA. There are 60 draft picks and maybe what like 40 of them each year end up on a roster? And most of those guys play their rookie contract and then not again. There generally isn't a whole lot of turnover in the NBA player pool compared to sports like the NFL and MLB
A few commenters alluded to this above, but not sure if anyone said it outright: he needs to take better care of the basketball. Too many times have I seen him dive into the lane out-of-control or into a crowd or both, where he either gets it stolen or throws it away. If he had fewer turnovers, with his size, he might be more of a true point guard. Or if he was scoring tons of points, he might be a true shooting guard.
That being said, he's very shifty and generally pretty good at getting to the basket and finishing around the rim, and of course, is just. so. clutch.