So I got a little bored and wanted to look into our remaining games vs. other teams remaining games and see what would be the worst and best case standing scenarios for VT heading into the ACC Tourney.
Best Case:
11-7 in ACC - 5th overall seed
1) VT would need to win against Wake Forest
2) Duke must lose to UNC putting them at 11-7 in the ACC
3) Miami must lose to FSU in their last game putting them at 10-8 in ACC, we lose tiebreaker to them
Worst Case:
10-8 in ACC - 8th overall seed
1) This is with VT losing against Wake Forest
2) VT holds tiebreaker against Syracuse with head to head win, preventing us not going any further than #8
After all of that, we are either going to be as high as a 5th seed or as a low as a 8th seed, so with that said.... VT has guaranteed itself a first round bye with beating Miami last night.... GO HOKIES!!!
Comments
Man, tonight is starting to feel like such a huge game. Was gonna be all productive and get up early tomorrow but I might have to crack open the Gentleman Jack and say screw it, I'm watching my boys.
It's a huge game. It's why I tried to get the administration to have a standby line.
However, they responded by giving us $10 student tickets, which is more than face value for season tickets and tickets on Stubhub are 9.70 with fees included. I will never understand why they have to get money instead of making Cassell as rowdy as possible.
Because they need to make money? If they start letting students in for free at game time when they're not at capacity a lot of people will just wait until then to get their tickets.
They'll be able to make up any money they lose from letting in students for a 9PM start on a weeknight by selling season tickets to people who can't make that game.
Students do not get in for free in reality... they pay an 'athletic fee'. 'Other people' would not be able to get in by waiting, only students with current ID.
Stand by line has been done before as I've seen ushers escorting students in and seating them after about the 15 min mark of first half.
This makes sense for sell-outs. Does VT sell out Cassel often? Did they do so last night?
No. "Tickets sold" was at 70% capacity.
I would be alright with the standby line, but they should only let them in after halftime or after the 8 min media timeout in the first half.
Just thought it would be interesting if they had a price posted for after tip and it decreased as the game went on, and if you think the fame was worth it, you walk up and pay and can pick an open seat. Could be game by game, almost like a reverse auction.
I'm having trouble imagining fans that would be willing to miss 25-50% of the game because of $10.
I was broke as fuck in college. Like, ramen noodles for a semester broke. But I could scrounge up $10 bucks to support my guys.
And yes, single game tickets should be more expensive than season tickets. That's how you incentivize season tickets.
When did they stop letting student in for free after tipoff?
This was standard operating procedure from 2010-2012.
Because they're not making money that way.
Not why. When?
Did Whit implement this after he came on board?
I honestly don't have any problem with them charging a nominal fee. I'm just wondering when they changed that policy.
Ah, misread that.
Not sure. Probably when Whit started, but I couldn't answer that with certainty.
Policies change -- expensive coach, better team will lead to commodity that needs a higher price based on income needs and demand.
Doubt it's just a Whit thing, but more due to current circumstance. But I guess current circumstance can ultimately be pinned on Whit for hiring Buzz and getting the bball team better.
There are a handful of individuals in the athletic department who just don't seem to get it when it comes to the students. One in particular has bungled every. single. one. of the student-centered events/issues of which that individual has been in charge. I can't say for certain that this same individual is responsible for that, but it wouldn't shock me in the least given said individual's previous basketball/football decisions.
And yes, I'm salty about it. All of it.
H. O. T. T. A. K. E.
handle with care
As proactive as Whit is, surprised the person is still employed.
And don't get me started on student seat location. Us, UNC and maybe Syr are the only ACC members I believe who DO NOT have students prominently sitting at sidelines. I emailed Lu Merritt when he was in charge. I like Lu, but the response was lame.... essentially was 'what about the people sitting behind them when the students stand up. If you can address that we can talk' (or to that effect). Ok how about informing anyone purchasing season tix within three rows that they are behind students and may have to stand?
Eh, I think there's more that don't have students on sidelines than do. Wake, Miami, Louisville, Clemson, UNC, Syracuse, FSU, us.
But then those three rows have to stand, which means the next three rows have to stand, which means the next three rows have to stand...
While it is nice to have the students along the sidelines, to let them feel more a part of the game, sideline seats are going to sell better than corner seats. Until we start regularly selling out, it might not be the best idea to give some of the best seats to the people paying the least for them.
and before you know all of Cassell is standing, and jumping and making noise!
Or my bum ass could have just posted this...
That's a great look at the possibilities. Thanks for posting.
So right now we have the highest probability to finish 5th, 6th, or 7th, but we don't control our destiny to finish in any of those. However, with the other games that need to be played, and the tiebreakers we own, we're in the prime position to slot ourselves upwards with a win over Wake to close out the season.
I like this. I like this a lot.
JaVale McGee, is that you?
Here's another good example of some seeding scenarios.
So miami has the tie breaker with us based on the weird winning pct thing? It's funny since i always assumed that the first tie breaker was on total record (OOC sked), good to know.
Here is a simulator where you can plug in hypothetical results to see what the final standings would look like. I believe if we win Saturday worst we could be is a 7. If we win, Duke splits, UVA wins, and Miami loses to FSU we could end up 5th in a four way tie.
http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb
This is pretty awesome. I still rather VT be a 6/7 seed playing in prime time and hopefully match up with Notre Dame in the 3rd round. I would rather not possibly see FSU or UNC front court until as late as possible.
Looking at the scenario generator I'd prefer if Notre Dame and Duke win Saturday and all other favorites winning. It would be VT vs WF/BC at 7pm Wednesday then hopefully VT would play ND 7pm Thursday.
With WF beating UL today, VT can win still get an 8 seed. That would require Duke, Miami, UVA winning and UL losing, so that 5 teams are tied with an 11-7 record (UL, FSU, Miami, UVA, and VT). VT is last place in that round robin.
If we beat Wake, we can't do any worse than 7, right?
That's important, I don't want any part of the 8/9 game and UNC.
Correct. If things fall "right" we could work our way up to the 5th seed.
Best thing for our seeding is for Duke to lose to FSU. Using the website linked above, I've only found one scenario (so far) where a FSU win over Duke still nets us the 7-seed (assuming a win over Wake). In ever other scenario I've run (currently 53) a Duke win over FSU nets the 7-seed.
It's worth nothing the 6 and 7 seeds keep us in the night side of the bracket. 5, 8 and 9 are all played during the day.
I'll be in NYC - have to tix to the Big East. But if Tech makes it the the Semis, may have to jump over to the Barclays center.
So if you go with no upsets from here on out in ACC play, we end up with the 5-seed in the ACC Tournament, playing the winner of the Clemson-NC State matchup. With a win over either of those, we would be slotted against Notre Dame. Winner of that matchup plays Syracuse, Miami, or UNC for the right to advance to the title game.
The way I see it, if everything remains chalk from here on out, we'll be seeded for a run in the ACC tournament, and I could see us advancing to at least the final 4 of the ACC, or potentially to the title game should UNC be upset by Miami or Cuse.
I would rather play any team in the ACC tournament than NCSU.
I understand they dominated us the first time around but since then there coach has been fired and is a lame duck. They aren't setting the world on fire.
Yeah, I think they're who I want to face most in our first game. I feel like getting revenge would wash out the only bad loss we have on the record.
And even then, I have full faith Clemson waxxes them out of the season.
I would really not like to play Clemson again.
So, yeah...
I was going to try to figure out every possible seeding scenario we had left (win or loss to WF) but there's 4096 combinations remaining (12 games, 2 outcomes/game = 2^12). After tonight's games there'll be 1024 combinations, after tomorrow's games there'll only be 128 possible combinations so I'm just going to wait. >.>
Here you go: click on your projected winners and select submit. Very cool.
ACC Tourney Scenarios
I already know about that. The problem is there are 4096 combinations and I don't have the time or desire to manually set up 4096 different scenarios.
dont lie
A few hundred? Yeah, I'll sit through it. Wouldn't be the first time. But 4096? Thanks but no thanks.
Edit: I'll do a few thousand if I have a way to quickly automate the process. But when I have to manually change each matchup? Yeah, I'm out.
I'm confused- in this model there are like 10 games to pick and most are not even relevent to VT's seed.
Key game is FSU- Duke. Duke win is really big for us. We want to face ND in the 2nd round, not UL
It's crazy that we will have a better conference record than last season yet could still have a worse seed in the tournament.
Not surprising when you see that the top of the conference is a bunch of teams beating up on each other and (for the most part) all beating a handful of teams way down in the standings. There is a very real possibility that 9 of the 15 ACC teams end up with a 10-8 record or better.
Also, if Louisville were eligible last year, that would have bumped us down to the 7 seed.
It seems to me after running a few different scenarios, that the easiest way to a 5 seed for us is for LOLUVA to lose to Pitt (assuming that we beat Wake). Which would be delicious after they beat UNC. They'd drop to an 8 seed.
If all the "favorites" for the remaining games win (ie, we win, Duke splits FSU/UNC [doesnt matter how], UVA wins, FSU beats Miami), we end in a three way tie with Duke and UVA at 11-7 and we win the tie break and are the 5.
Obviously this is a big if given players may not be going for Duke tonight so while they may be the favorite they may be underdogs at actual tip. If the above remains true except Duke goes 0-2 we fall to the 6 spot (Uva-5, VT-6, Duke 7). If Duke somehow goes 2-0 they go 5, UVA 6, VT 7.
How do we have the tie breaker over duke and uva? I know we beat duke but split with UVA so what determines which head to head is more important. Because we certainly didn't beat unc so that can't be it
If there is a 3 way tie, it's record against the other two involved.
So we would be 2-1, Duke would be 1-1, UVA would be 1-2
Duke beats FSU. They need to lose to UNC in the Dean Dome on Saturday, Miami needs to lose to FSU, and VT needs to beat Wake and the Hokies will be the 5 seed.
... and out of the Louisville side of the bracket and facing ND if we get past the 1st game. Issue for us is that we are looking at winner of NCSU and Clemson which won't be easy. MIami upset of FSU bumps us to 6 to probably face winner of GT- Wake followed by UL
Here's a worst case scenario none of us predicted:
ESPN has eliminated from the conference altogether and has replaced us with a second Miami team. I can only assume this is the work of Seth Greenberg
Or Heather "the Neck" Dinich
If that were the case, the Fightin' David Cutcliffes would be #1, with a perfect record.
Does that make me a Miami fan? 'Cause I need to work on my chin-strap beard and buy repugnant cologne.
I'm starting to have a bad feeling that we might get screwed on Selection Sunday. I just noticed that after our win over Miami on Monday, ESPN has them in as a lock and us as a very shaky "Should be in." Someone please tell me I'm crazy.
I don't want to count our chickens before they hatch, but if we don't make it this year (especially assuming we beat Wake, another top 50 RPI win), it will be the most egregious snub we've ever gotten.
If Syracuse gets in and we don't, the selection committee should be disbanded.
B-but muh Boeheim.
If Syracuse gets in, we don't (especially after we beat Wake), I could see Whit suing the selection committee.
Go look at some of the other bubble teams resumes. They are truly awful. Will Miami still get seeded higher than us because they beat UVA on the road? Sure, that could happen. Will we be left out? No.
I'll be bullshit when we get a 10 seed, even if we have an ok showing in the ACC tourney. Miami gets a 6-8, and then UVA and all their mediocrity away from home and inability to score 50 points a game will get a 5 seed and be the easiest 5/12 upset pick ever.
man i had no hesitation picking against them for the 1/16 upset
Same here. In a bracket for money, I still couldn't bring myself to write their name down a single time.
I put money on the 16
not a chance after beating Miami. Even if we lose to WF (who is a RPI top 50 team.... can anyone explain to that to me???) and a first round loss. Our record and resume compared to bubble teams pales in comparison.
Easy, RPI is an outdated system that weights your strength of schedule above all else. Wake forest played Villanova and Xavier OOC. They lost both games, but they played them, and that makes them pretty damn good according to RPI
in fairness, WF and miami are both ranked higher than VT in Kenpom as well.
though RPI still kind of sucks
I wonder how much better our RPI would look had we beaten TAMU and lost to UCLA instead of playing Nebraska.
I have been thinking this same thing (just of in record/clout vs. RPI) for a while. I seriously doubt today's Buzzketball team blows a 17 point 2nd half lead.
They would have lost. I took my kid to Fullerton for his first Hokies basketball game. It was an awesome time until the final minute. BTW, there were lots of Tech fans there. After the game I told him, "son, this is what it feels like to be a Hokie basketball fan."
So I just want to make the NCAAs. Just make the big dance. Next year, we will be have the bench depth to do some damage; this year is about getting the snub monkey off our backs and getting a feel for March Madness.
Our RPI is weighed down by 6 wins over teams with 275+ RPI. Six. Many teams have zero wins against 275+, some have two or three. We have six. 6.
We scheduled the wrong cupcakes.
It doesn't exactly work like this, but playing a ton of teams that didn't win much and playing them all at home was a huge mistake in terms of maximizing RPI. I will beat on this drum for as long as RPI is important in seeding the tournament but playing every single out of conference game at home against scrubs from scrub conferences is monumentally stupid. A road trip to Radford would not shutter the program and you get credit for 1.4 wins in the RPI formula instead of .6
According to this, we would currently be at 26 instead of 34.
Don't know all the tiebreakers but any chance VT finishes higher than 5th seed? You could potentially have 6 teams tied at 11-7 from 3rd through 8th in the standings. It isn't likely that ND or Louisville lose both of their final games but I would estimate it is more likely Louisville drops both..
Here is how that would play out:
3. Florida State (5-2)
4. Louisville (3-3)
5. Miami (4-4)
6. VT (3-4)
7. Duke (3-4)
8. Virginia (3-4)
I guess I answered my question. For VT to finish in the 5th seed we need:
VT to win
FSU to beat Miami
Duke to lose to UNC
UVA loses to Pitt (UVA could actually win and VT still get the 5 seed but life is better when UVA loses)
FTFY.
ND and Louisville play each other the last game of the season.
Eh, not so fast:
You'll notice that he didn't list Notre Dame in that large tie for 3rd, only Louisville. And it is grammatically correct as this is an example of the infrequently-used subjunctive case.
Damn. That's actually true. I misread. The listing of ND in that sentence threw me off.
Sorry OP. I'll go into the corner and think about what I've posted.
Makes me feel a little [sic] when I do stuff like that.
Touche.
0% chance of higher than 5th seed due to head to head match up losses to Louisville, ND, UNC, and FSU
three way ties.
We have a 3% chance of a 4th seed now. Some guy on here posted the link below (it's funny because it was you):
http://playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accstandings.html
The 3% is for LOLUVA.
FML. And this, boys and girls, is why you format your tables so readers don't go cross-eyed. My bad.
There is also one more overlooked outcome needed for us to get the fifth seed. Notre Dame needs to win one game. If they get involved in the tiebreaker it drops us. This may not be likely with BC next on the sched, but if they lose that one they will also be a big dog to Louisville.
The good thing is that all of these are the expected outcomes, and all would represent the favored team winning at home.
Right now, it seems more likely than not that we finish 5th in the ACC.
I think we just need chalk to get the 5rh seed.
The ACC is so stacked that I feel like any of the top four teams would be about the same, matchup wise, and anyone we would get from the 9+ seeds is also about even. Can't say that I really care where we end up in our current potential seeds, so it's gravy!
Wake up 5 on Louisville at the 1st tv timeout. Not going to be an easy game on Saturday. I hope Cassell gets bananas
Saturday is going to be a tough game. Glad we get to play at home to finish it out.
WF was going to be a tough game, regardless of how they played against UofL.
If anything, the hangover from this win will be hard to overcome (like VT vs NCSU after the Duke win).
We played NC State this year?
I watched the game, no we didn't show up and play NC State.
NC State played us, though.
spring break starts on Friday #thanksacc
There are 14 ACC teams playing on Saturday. I'm all for calling out the ACC, but there's not much they could have done about this.
More like #ThanksVT for scheduling spring break to overlap Senior Night
ACC schools have their Spring Breaks staggered, so it would be a logistical nightmare for the ACC to schedule around them all.
Yeah, although a trip to Barclays would have been my idea of a good spring break. Though I may be in the minority saying that
Well that UL loss pushes them to a 4, meaning if home teams hold serve on Saturday we will play them in the 2nd round provided we get by Clemson/ NCSU winner
I really don't want to face either of those teams again. Clemson has always been way to close. And Wake seems dangerous.
While those Clemson games have been close, we are 2-0 against them this year. There is something to be said for going up against a team you know you have the mental edge on. This is the same reason I want absolutely no part of NCSU in the tournament. That team is in our heads.
2 2pm games would suuuuuck for those working.
One 2pm game would be worse.
If the Hokies lose to Wake Forest, the only other games that matter are UVA-Pitt, FSU-Miami and GT-Syracuse.
With a loss, the Hokies are the 7-seed IF:
* Pitt beats UVA and one (or both) of Miami and Georgia Tech lose
* Both Miami and Georgia Tech lose
With a loss, the Hokies are the 8-seed IF:
* UVA beats Pitt and one (or both) of Miami or Georgia Tech wins
* Pitt beats UVA but both Miami and Georgia Tech win
Will do winning scenarios later, but the short version is UVA-Pitt, FSU-Miami, Louisville-Notre Dame and UNC-Duke all affect our seeding (which can be anywhere from 5th to 8th). Not 100% sure about GT-Syracuse and BC-Clemson, but early reports are they don't.
Okay, had time to run the other scenarios if Tech wins. Confirmed that GT-Syracuse and BC-Clemson don't affect the Hokies' seeding if they beat Wake.
Now that said, with a win...
the Hokies are the 5-seed with:
* a UNC win + a FSU win + one or both of Louisville and Pitt win
the Hokies are the 6-seed with:
* a Duke win + a Pitt win + a Miami loss
* a Duke loss + a Miami win
the Hokies are the 7-seed with:
* a Duke win + a Pitt loss + a loss by either (or both) of Miami or ND
* a Duke win + a Pitt win + a ND win + a Miami win
the Hokies are the 8-seed with:
* a Duke win + a UVA win + a ND win + a Miami win
In terms of the bracket, being the 6 or 7 seed is advantageous to us. Here's an example: this is the bracket if Miami is the only road win on Saturday.
Gets us away from UNC until the finals, and both of the higher seeds on our side are teams we've played close. Plus the evening sessions are easier to watch on TV.
I think our extreme lack of depth coupled with only a single bye prevents us from making a deep run, but I think this gives us the best chance of doing some damage in NYC.