So this is the first full recruiting cycle that I have really paid attention to and something I have been wondering is who our main recruiting rivals are. I decided to look at all the offers we sent out last recruiting class and see where every recruit ended up signing. I made a list and also included the schools average recruit composite score according to 247. I thought about going back more than just one year but it would be pretty time consuming and with a mostly new coaching staff it might be comparing apples to oranges. The list is organized according to the number of recruits the school landed (that also had VT offers) with the average composite score in parentheses.
16 - Maryland (.8824)
13 - Georgia (.9333)
12 - Penn State (.8950)
11 - Florida (.9127)
10 - Michigan (.9309), Clemson (.9195), UNC (.8860)
8 - Notre Dame (.8962)
6 - Auburn (.9074), Miami (.9010), Louisville (.8740)
4 - Ohio State (.9695), Florida State (.9578), South Carolina (.9152), Oklahoma (.8919), Tennessee (.8788), ECU (.8373)
3 - Alabama (.9817), Pitt (.9186), Texas A&M (.9089), Oregon (.8941), Rutgers (.8564), NC State (.8509), Indiana (.8464), Duke (.8440)
2 - Stanford (.9268), Kentucky (.8963), Nebraska (.8852), Baylor (.8662), Mississippi State (.8657), West Virginia (.8618), Ole Miss (.8603), Wisconsin (.8593), UCF (.8487)
1 - UAB (.8838), Boston College (.8803), Georgia Tech (.8752), USC (.8666), UVA (.8646), Iowa State (.8624), Syracuse (.8618), Texas (.8540), Iowa (.8530), Kansas State (.8529), FAU (.8481), South Alabama (.8465), Arkansas State (.8463), William and Mary (.8355), Michigan State (.8351), Toledo (.8341), Illinois (.8326), North Texas (.8166), ODU (.7642)
Some thoughts:
-I wasn't necessarily surprised by the number of recruits Maryland landed because of our overlapping recruiting areas, but I was surprised by the quality of recruits they were able to get.
-Only one recruit with a VT offer decided to go to UVA...poor kid, but that sounds about right.
-I was surprised that only 4 recruits we offered ended up at FSU.
-An overlook of our ACC rivals goes Clemson and UNC (10), Notre Dame (8), Miami and Louisville (6), FSU (4), Pitt and NC State and Duke (2), then BC, GT, UVA, and Syracuse (1)
Any other thoughts or trends people notice? Does this list seem accurate past just this last year? Any surprises? Interested to hear what people think.
Happy TKPing!
Comments
F UMD.....
thats all i have...
Well, they have those fancy clown uniforms.
2012 they had those horrible uniforms. Whoever gave that the greenlight must have been a Medieval Times junkie.
JMO, but I'd say UNC, UMD and PSU seem like the ones we go up against head-to-head most often for recruits we want.
Agreed 100%.
Those are the schools we fight the most for the recruits we have a realistic shot at getting.
Don't follow it all that closely myself either, but I tend to discount the accuracy of these offer lists since they're usually self-reported. Some kids, especially guys with many offers, probably have offers they don't advertise on Twitter. Plus there's the whole "committable/non-committable" thing. But it's an interesting way to look at the information that is available.
So that's 193 kids with VT offers that went elsewhere, vs. 27 that signed with the good guys...success rate 12%. It'd be way tedious but wonder how that percentage stacks up, and if there's a sort of class structure/program prestige thing going on there. I know sometimes I glance through the lists and it seems like some programs spray scholarship offers around like crazy while others pick and choose.
There is definitely the nuance of a committable/non-committable offer (sorry William and Mary you did not "beat" us for a recruit) but as an aggregate list it looks accurate. Adding more years to the sample size would help that
That 12% number is misleading. A percentage implies that successful is getting closer to 100%, when, in reality, we pretty much filled all our spots and those that we didn't will help us with early enrollees next year.
Ya an accuracy percentage is almost impossible. If we truly knew the kids at the top of the board for the various positions it would be interesting to know what % we landed. I don't think it would be any higher than about 20%.
Oh no, I agree that 100% is completely implausible. It'd just be a way to peek inside the program's recruiting philosophy and compare programs. The 12% number means very little by itself.
In quantity, maybe not, but in quality I have a pretty strong feeling that this cycle through the next 3-4 Clemson will be the notable team stealing all the top guys in our areas of focus (Virginia, NC, Georgia).
One of the primary reasons I was actively rooting for them to lose the NC.
Amen. Never got the argument that Clemson winning would somehow help "our" recruiting.
You can make any argument make sense when you irrationally hate top teams like Alabama. At this point, we can only hope that without Deshaun Clemson regresses back to their 10-2 form and losing to FSU every year and eventually their recruiting will take a step back to where they aren't going to be quite as frustrating in those areas.
Um, excuse me. My hate for Alabama is perfectly rational. I could care less about their success, but their fans are fucking douches.
Agree with the rest of your points though.
Clemson fans are awful themselves. They were gonna win the NC every year since I can remember dating back to elementary school. Now that they are actually successful it's become unbearable. I think most teams have lots of awful fans. At least the good teams.
Unbearable boasting about their team is not in the same ballpark or even the same sport as things I've witnessed from Bama fans. Every team has those. I put Bama fans in the same category as WVU fans.
Mrs. SthrnLwyr's never been around for a wvu game. She was surprised by the level of hate and disgust that I've displayed since that game was announced.
Mrs.: "wait, you don't talk this much shit about uva, why the rage towards wvu?"
Me: "after we left the big east they canceled the series because of burned couches, batteries and ziplock bags full of piss. look at old video of Tech games in morganhole, there's a reason everybody's wearing their helmets on the sideline."
Mrs.: "gross."
as someone living in greenville, i completely agree with you...and feel your pain.
To be fair, we were gonna win the MNC just about every year from 2000 through 2012, and again in 2014 after the aOSU upset. Unrealistic expectations are an important part of any well-balanced fanbase.
We were light years ahead of where Clemson was in 2000-2010. We also are always rated as a top 10 team within that decade, usually around 7. We had several years where we were a legit contender, we were just always the contender who dropped an important game unfortunately.
I agree every team's fanbase can be unrealistic and has bad fans, but nobody considered Clemson a contender for the majority of those years except Clemson fans, and they regularly would tell me how they expected to beat us by 30-40 points in the mid 2000's. They are also unbelievably defensive, and I know every team has people like that, but they have serious, serious reflexive defensiveness. You can't even joke about Clemsoning in a light hearted manner without at least one nearby person spouting numbers and figures at you angrily. The cfbreddit account occasionally makes very non-serious Clemsoning jokes and there were like 50 replies within a few minutes of pictures of the national championship trophy and people whining.
I'm just waiting for Saban to retire and Dabo to run to Alabama. Hopefully then Clemson will be the next program to hire the big time up and coming name that ends up being a total flop. I mean probably not but it happens to big time programs all the time. Either way I'm tired of all my Clemson friends here in the upstate telling me that Dabo would never leave Clemson for any other program, especially not Alabama. I want to watch them squirm when he's on the first plane ride out to Tuscaloosa.
Clemson has the national #1 recruit for 2018 and 2019 already committed because of that game.
So yeah... Their winning has made our path that much harder. But Alabama lost, so... yay?
Well they don't have any 2019 recruits and Lawrence committed before the playoffs started. They have a good shot at getting 3 of the top 4 in 2018 though.
Yes, a school with a profile very similar to ours proved that it's possible to build a winning program and beat the blue bloods. Absolutely yay. Clemson was gonna win recruits regardless, the outcome of a single game doesn't really matter, but rooting for the establishment in college football is about as boring and un-fun a thing as I can imagine.
Besides, there are a million ways to spin them winning a championship being a boon to us and a million ways to spin it into a loss. That's because it really has no effect and we're grasping at straws.
Not sure any program with multiple national championships is a similar profile to VT. Clemson has been a sleeping giant for a while.
They have 2 total now, the other coming in 1981, that doesn't exactly scream heavyweight. And they happen to have near identical athletic department revenues and enrollment sizes. It's not an exact comparison but it's close enough to see how to get from where we are to where they are (hence why Clemson comes up in conversation constantly)
Nice post, good analysis! I was also surprised about Maryland getting so many
Maryland sits on so much talent. I know people get caught up on the whole in state vs out of state thing, but Maryland has actual proximity. Of the 12 guys we offered in MD, UMD got 5 of them, with 4 of them being 4*. All of those guys are easily under an hour drive to UMD.
Thats why I hope we raid NC this year. Thats actually the closest talent to Blacksburg. People get too hung up on state lines.
Nice numbers. I would've guessed (in no particular order):
1. UNC
2. PSU
3. Clemson
4. FSU
That's pretty close to what my list would look like.
There was a time when we inexplicably lost some recruits to UVa, which hurt those recruits' careers.
you know those feel-good sports movies where the protagonist starts with such promise then he makes a bad decision and his life spirals out of control and he has to work his ass off to turn things around? That's the story of every LOLUVa recruit.
Great minds think alike.
I think you could refine this list a little more by looking at who we go head to head for in VA, MD and NC. Most of the FL or GA guys that we offer don't really get a shot at. I mean UGA might have had 13 players we offered, but Speed was the only one we actually had a chance at. But the more local offers we are at least in play for. I think it would still come back as UNC, MD, PSU and Clemson.
I think South Carolina and FSU would both come up a lot more if you extended a few more years.
Thanks for doing this and interesting info.
VT > UMD in every possible way.
Except in funding.
yeah, like...not even close.
My impression was that UMD had to change conferences and cut out some sports because they were losing money hand over fist.
That didn't account for Kevin Plank's investments and the ploy to get more state money committed to infrastructure, though.
That's possible, but I thought I had heard they changed conference because their donors wanted them out of the ACC and into a "bigger" conference. They were even willing to pay the stupid acc exit fee which was 25 or 50m at the time.
A few in my extended family had a couple generations who played for Maryland in a few sports. Hearing from them the last time we all got together for a wedding right after the move was announced, their fans overwhelmingly hated the move out of the ACC. Caused a massive rift in the fan and alumni base, if only for a short time.
Why would they need a "bigger" conference, when they weren't even succeeding in the one they were in at the time?
You very well could be correct, I don't know what Maryland's finances are. But if I'm offered a scholarship and am choosing between VT and UMD I'd be more concerned with the upward trajectory of the program versus the money. Our future is brighter than theirs, not to mention the location is way better, the campus is way better, the stadium is MUCH better, the fans are way better, the girls are hotter, the food is better, the surrounding area is better, the air is fresher and the simple fact the Maryland is Maryland.
So I'll ask, does the amount of donors/$$$ directly influence recruits? Obviously facilities make a huge difference and that correlates to money, but does Maryland's coaching staff say to a recruit "Hey, our donors pledge more money than VT's donor's do, so we're better."?
If I'm 18 year old 3 star wide out, I think, "So what? That team took the Natl Champs to the brink in the ACC Championship. They have a stud D and rising O. Their stadium is kick ass, yours sucks and they have better facilities. I'll take VT."
I really don't think $$$ makes a direct difference to a recruit. I get that it makes a difference on the program as a whole, particularly, if that $$$ is spent on facilities, then sure, that is a tangible impact.
If a croot wants to go to UMD over VT because of money/donations, that tells me something else is amiss. Just my .02 through my O&M, Maryland hatin' sunglasses.
More money means more money that can be spent on recruiting. That means more support staff that can focus on doing things like scheduling itineraries for coaches on visits and trips, putting together recruit information packets to better help a coach "know" a kid which can help sway their decision, working on a coaches social media presence, etc.
Money brings in support staff that can take care of the small stuff which helps the coaches focus on actual coaching and developing/strengthening relationships with potential and current players.
Also, more money usually leads to higher head and assistant coach salaries which should theoretically mean less of a chance that the coach who recruits you will leave before you do. Unrealistic as it may be, kids decide to play for coaches, not schools.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2012/11/19/maryland-leaves...
Maryland desperately needed to move to Big Ten to even stay afloat as an independent athletic department. I'm not sure why everyone thinks they are flush in cash every year.
It's behind a paywall but I just read a news story that has Maryland and Rutgers sitting at the bottom of BIG in terms of total revenue after expenses, they both rely on state money and student fees at a higher percentage than its peers in conference.
That's the impression I had.
It was also covered closely in the Washington Post.
I think this will depend on where the talent is coming from year to year. We already know that Virginia this year will not be a fruitful as NC. States like GA and FL always seem to have plenty of talented players, whereas others oscillate. My guess is that if you ran the same numbers after this next class, the competition would shift to more southern schools.
I am surprised Penn St and ND are as high as they are and surprised that USCe, WVU, and Tenn are not higher. Good work on putting some numbers to the recruiting madness.
Love to know who chose LOLUVa over us...
and where he is now...
Somewhere behind Ryan Malleck.
I never get tired of that clip.
Nice try, but it was not Blanding. He was in 2014 recruiting class I believe.
He's used to the annual Thanksgiving Disappointment
"Nothing goes together better than eating Thanksgiving leftovers and watching your team win, amirite?"
LOLUVa fans:
I think it was Crowell, whose bro went to LOLUVA.
I wonder if this could be improved by including data on who offered the players that we ended up signing. That might show us who the real rivals are (since rivalries go both ways), rather than just "who ends up getting the guys we offer."
For example: UVA would consider us a rival by this current dataset, since we take a lot of the guys they offer. We wouldn't consider them a rival, as they only took one from us.
If reported offers were accurate in any way....
I think you are on to something. Looking at where our commits had offers and totaling the schools up would allow for a comparison of the top 10 with the teams that land in both lists being even more representative of a true recruiting rivalry.
Nice data.
It would be cool to see the inverse too. Which recruits signed with VT that had offers elsewhere. I imagine, for example, that UVA and VT had a significant overlap, and VT got maybe ~8-12.