FEI Predicts Virginia Tech Has a 0.4% Chance of 12-0 in 2017

By: Joe Lanza
PUBLISHER
on July 24, 2017, 8:18 AM | 34 comments

FEI preseason projections are published (http://www.bcftoys.com/2017-fei).

Tech checks in a No. 27, which is right around the average range way too early human polls have had the Hokies. Take note of the cluster of Coastal favorites — Miami (No. 24), Georgia Tech (No. 26), and Virginia Tech (No. 27). The ACC media's preseason poll had 1. Miami, 2. Virginia Tech, and 3. Georgia Tech in a rather tight vote.

Coastal Division (First place votes in parenthesis)

Miami (103) – 1,065
Virginia Tech (40) – 932
Georgia Tech (9) – 708
Pitt (7) – 673
North Carolina (4) - 606
Duke (4) -473
Virginia -219

Expect a tight race on the Hokies' side of the division where every team has a chance to represent the ACC in Charlotte, except Virginia.

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Comments

Jander75's picture Jander75 | 8 years 11 months #

So you're telling me there's a chance?

I can imagine no more rewarding a career. And any man who may be asked in this century what he did to make his life worthwhile, I think can respond with a good deal of pride and satisfaction:
“I served in the United States Navy"

nc-hokie's picture nc-hokie
| 8 years 11 months # ^

hokie4runner's picture hokie4runner | 8 years 11 months #

ACC Coastal, sounds no different than the norm.

Vtkey's picture Vtkey
| 8 years 11 months # ^

bluehokie2006's picture bluehokie2006 | 8 years 11 months # ^

To paraphrase Journey....

The wheel in the coastal keeps on turning...

brickhaus's picture brickhaus
VILLAGE IDIOT
| 8 years 11 months # ^

Someone needs to remake this one with UVa on the outside looking in, with the entire circle > UVa. That would be more fun.

“You got one guy going boom, one guy going whack, and one guy not getting in the endzone.”
― John Madden (describing VT's offense?)

bluehokie2006's picture bluehokie2006 | 8 years 11 months # ^

Then Duke better not flark it up this year.

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months # ^

...Or the coastal could get it's collective shit together and hand LOLUVa the win-less conference record they deserve.

EDIT: apparently this happened in 2013. Still, it should be a yearly occurrence.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months #

I can't wait for the first By the (Advanced) Numbers to come out. I'm curious what part of that 0.4% is due to the fact that we play Clemson. Should we start the season 5-0, what does that number jump to?

Also fun to look at: in the first 5 games, we will have only played a single P5 school (Clemson, but still just one).EDIT: TIL that I still think of WVU as a Big East School.

Let's try this again...In the first 5 games, we will have played TWO P5 schools (Clemson and WVU). Miami will have played FSU and Duke. GT will have played Tenn, Pitt, and UNC.

Also of interest, I'm pretty sure LOLUVa will have no more than 1 win in the first 5 weeks. They may even lose in week 5.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

bluehokie2006's picture bluehokie2006 | 8 years 11 months # ^

Also fun to look at: in the first 5 games, we will have only played a single P5 school (Clemson, but still just one).

I know the cousins are the odd man out on the map of the Big 12, but they're technically still P5.

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months # ^

Wow. Looking over the schedule I totally skimmed over them and registered it as yet another AAC game.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

nc-hokie's picture nc-hokie
| 8 years 11 months # ^

Interesting that WVU's FEI rating is 70th...ouch. To put that in perspective LOLUVA is listed as 73rd.

EDIT: deathrow821 beat me to this

TouchdownTech's picture TouchdownTech | 8 years 11 months # ^

Mistake on the game chart, it has that we play Clemson on 10/21

1-0 every week

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months # ^

huh, must be old. I was trying to find the one I printed out earlier this year, but it comes up null. Well the important thing is that LOLUVa has a bye in week 5.

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

Rocco's picture Rocco
| 8 years 11 months # ^

It's a different system, but Bill Connelly's numbers have VT at .521% to go unbeaten. (He has VT's game-by-game odds and I can't find those for FEI.) If you take out the first five games they have a 3.11% of winning their last seven games. Practically speaking their odds are probably a tick higher than that because if they get through the first five games they're probably stronger than the metrics believe them to be.

HokieJeep's picture HokieJeep | 8 years 11 months #

That's honestly higher than expected.

2026 Season Challenge: TBD
Previous Challenges: Star Wars (2019), Marvel (2020), Batman (2021), Wrasslin' (2022)

VT_Fencer's picture VT_Fencer | 8 years 11 months #

Virginia not winning the coastal is the one thing all of the voters could agree on.

The Orange and Maroon you see, that's fighting on to victory.

deathrow821's picture deathrow821 | 8 years 11 months #

WVU is 70th and UVA is 73rd, for those that enjoy seeing our rivals suck.

Rip his freaking head off!

ashore13's picture ashore13
🍺🦃🦃🦃
| 8 years 11 months # ^

When looking at statistical ratings for WVU, we need to remember that transfers are not included in their rating. WVU normally outperforms their rating because this factor is not included. Granted, I don't think their transfers are enough to inflate them to top 25 level, but I doubt they are truly 70th.

"That move was slicker than a peeled onion in a bowl of snot." -Mike Burnop

KopHokie's picture KopHokie | 8 years 11 months # ^

so when we beat them both this season, do we win the Commonwealth Diamond Trophy?

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months # ^

yes, but really we call it the "We Own This State and Don't Think That Just Because You Left Means We Own You Any Less Cup"

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

dragone's picture dragone | 8 years 11 months # ^

Let's Go

HOKIES

Granville's picture Granville
| 8 years 11 months # ^

North Carolina (South Virginia) should be included in that map

HorseOnATreadmill's picture HorseOnATreadmill
| 8 years 11 months # ^

So should North Virginia (MD) and East Virginia (Delaware? Hell I dunno). Also Warm Virginia (Georgia) and Cold Virginia (Massachusetts). Square Virginia (Pennsylvania) and New Virginia (New York) should make an appearance.

hokie07ME's picture hokie07ME | 8 years 11 months # ^

Warning: this post occasionally contains strong language (which may be unsuitable for children), unusual humor (which may be unsuitable for adults), and advanced mathematics (which may be unsuitable for liberal-arts majors)..

The Beard of DeChristopher's picture The Beard of DeChristopher
BEARDS > PEOPLE
| 8 years 11 months # ^

disregard

21st century QBs Undefeated vs UVA:
MV7, MV5, LT3, Grant Wells, Braxton Burmeister, Ryan Willis, Josh Jackson, Jerod Evans, Michael Brewer, Tyrod Taylor, Sean Glennon, and Grant Noel. That's right, UVA. You couldn't beat Grant Noel.

HomebrewHokie08's picture HomebrewHokie08
🍺MAKES "BEER" ⚗️🦃
| 8 years 11 months # ^

The "Virginias Trophy"?

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

Alum07's picture Alum07
🦃 LEG KING 🦃
| 8 years 11 months #

That's about right. As I said in the other thread, undefeated certainly is a ceiling for this team this year, but its a very thin chance of that happening.

"When I was growing up, Virginia Tech was a school that was kicking ass and taking names, and it's time we get back to that" - James Franklin

dmcross's picture dmcross
| 8 years 11 months #

I have a hard time believing these percentages when FEI gives LOLUVA over a 30% chance of being bowl eligible.

Koastal Kings's picture Koastal Kings | 8 years 11 months #

Yeah sounds right we last went undefeated in 1999. It's not happening this season.

HomebrewHokie08's picture HomebrewHokie08
🍺MAKES "BEER" ⚗️🦃
| 8 years 11 months #

The rankings are based on FEI which is based on

Preseason projected ratings are a function of five-year program ratings, recent recruiting success, and returning offensive and defensive experience.

I doubt they are applying the "Fuente shift" when considering the last five years of data. Adjust your perspective depending on how you feel about our new coach. Same could be said of Miami and Richt, but not GT and Chop-block LeCock

Plan for the worst and hope for the best, not the other way around.

VTacajoe's picture VTacajoe
DO OR DO NOT...
| 8 years 11 months #

via GIPHY

"Take care of the little things and the big things will come."