Deeper Look at the Clemson Blueprint

Disclaimer, this is a long post, for the takeaways feel free to scroll to the bottom.

So I am not too proud to say that as a Hokies fan, I want to be where Clemson is. Many people have commented along the lines that VT is closest to Clemson when considering current "blue-bloods" (I don't want to debate whether they are truly a blue-blood, I just mean teams that have recently had top success both on the field and in recruiting). I decided to take a look at the timeline around when they turned it around on the field, on the recruiting trail, and how that compares to when Swinney became HC, to try and give myself a realistic expectation around if Fuente is the real deal, how long can we expect it to take him to build a NC contender. I'll share the table below with the data I've collected, then some thoughts about how it compares to VT. For Clemson, I went as far back as 2000 to just get an idea of their trends before Swinney, but in my observations I'm mainly focusing on the 3-4 years before Swinney became HC, and how long it took them to be contenders.

Clemson Data:

*Swinney became HC midway through the 2008 season

VT data:

*Fuente became HC in 2016

Observations:
-Since 2000, Clemson's average recruiting ranking is 21. VT's average going back to 2000 is 28 (though the table for VT only goes back to 2012)
-In 2005, Clemson started paying their recruits (jk...but maybe). They went from an average class ranking of 33 over 5 seasons, to an average class ranking of 13, without any noticeable difference on the field (same HC, Tommy Bowden, and no significant increase in wins in the preceding years.)
-In Swinney's first full year as HC, they went 9-5, with top 15 talent, but had a drop off in year two, going 6-7. Recruiting also dropped off a bit, presumably with the coaching change, with a 36th and 27th ranked class. Somehow in Swinney's third full recruiting class he was able to pull in a top 10 class even though they went 6-7 the previous year. Compare this to Fuente's first year, he went 10-4 though having much less talent than what Swinney started with. The recruiting class between coaches for VT dropped to 42, though his first full class was actually slightly above average at 25.
-Ok, here is the most important point, my reason for doing this: It wasn't until Swinney's 4th full year as HC that Clemson really became relevant on the national stage, going 11-2 in 2012 and beating LSU in the Chick-Fil-A bowl. It took him 7 years to get to the NC, finally winning it in his 8th full year as HC. In recruiting, it wasn't until Swinney's third class that he was able to get back to a top 10 class, and never having a class lower than 20th since, where they were for the 3-4 years preceding Swinney.
-Some caveats, there is a lot this data does not take into consideration; funding, location, branding, etc. Whether or not there was something fishy about Clemson's recruiting from 2005-08, Clemson's recruiting ceiling may be higher than VT's (our best classes being ranked 16, 18, and 20). Also, Swinney was promoted from within so he theoretically already had many recruiting relationships established in his region.

My biggest takeaway: Clemson's success didn't happen overnight. Swinney started with better talent, and it still took him 4 years to build a contender, and 3 years to see significant recruiting success. Fuente had more success in year 1 with less talent, and his first full recruiting class was slightly better than our average. Swinney's recruiting roughly improved with Clemson's on-field performance (the 2011 class is hard to account for) so it is possible that it could be the same is VT has the same build to success on the field.

Bottom line: I think Fuente and Foster are the real deal, so I want to give them a realistic chance/timeline to succeed on the field and on the recruiting trail. We are only going into year 2, good things are coming!! Leg to you if you are still reading.