With 130 FBS teams, it is difficult for even diehard college football fans to keep up with every program. As a result, teams without a significant history or current relevance quickly fall off the radar and blend in together. The 88th best team isn't thought of as being any better than the 128th best team, even though at the other end of the spectrum fans would clearly distinguish the 1st from the 40th.
As a result, unless you have some personal connection you likely have no clue what to think about Old Dominion and likely couldn't guess their rank within 10 positions.
What if I told you that the Monarchs finished 2016 ranked 73rd in S&P+, right in between Duke and Oregon? Or that they went 10-3 and led the country in expected turnover margin?
Now that I have your attention...
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 3-0, and for the second straight year thoroughly dismantled their former kryptonite of East Carolina. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
12-0 is still in play! The chance of an undefeated regular season rose from 0.18% to 0.63%. Clemson and Miami remain the biggest obstacles on the Hokies' schedule, although as each week passes preseason projections play less of a role and a more accurate picture gets painted. Virginia is a surprisingly uncertain game after their offensive explosion this weekend, and North Carolina is a surprisingly close matchup as well.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
Not surprisingly the Hokies are ranked well above the Monarchs, and all computers expect them to win comfortably. The odds of a 28-point favorite winning are 96.7%. However, as can be seen above S&P+ only projects an 86.6% chance of winning.
Side note: Old Dominion is currently rated just one spot behind Virginia.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
Even considering that preseason projections are still a significant portion of ratings, it is still a little bit surprising that the Tech offense is still towards the middle-of-the-pack. While that still gives a slight advantage over ODU, it is the defensive side that enjoys a very large advantage. The Monarchs have a solid defensive line but the offense should struggle to score many points.
Who To Watch Out For
Despite being a smaller school that isn't likely to land top talent, Old Dominion is not without playmakers:
- DL Miles Fox and DL Bunmi Rotimi are tied for 7th in the nation with 3.5 sacks each through 3 games. They have led a defense that is tied for 1st in the country in sacks with 16.0 — notably sharing the top spot with Clemson. Look for Brad Cornelsen to form a game plan to limit the DL from getting to Josh Jackson, who has only been sacked three times all season.
- WR Isaiah Harper is 10th in the country in kickoff returns, averaging 32.33 yards with a touchdown. However, he will face leg cannon Joey Slye who is second in the country in touchback% at 95.65%, with the lone return coming on an intentional low kick last weekend.
Statistical Key to the Game
I trust Tech's defense to severely limit the Monarch offense. But given the surprisingly stout defensive line of ODU and the lack of a Hokies ground game against even mediocre competition, I'm really interested in whether the Hokies establish a run game. I'm looking at yards per carry to set the tone for whether Tech simply outclasses Old Dominion, or whether the offense has to show more of its playbook to seal the win.
Statistical Prediction
After regular improvement across their first three seasons, I believe the Monarchs have taken a step back this season and will really struggle on offense. On the other hand, I still have some trust issues with the Hokies' offense despite the explosion of points against that poor and porous East Carolina defense. If I were a betting man, and I am, I'd be taking the under on this game despite a clear Virginia Tech victory.
Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 13
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Seriously, still only a 71% chance to beat out loluva? Also not happy about that GiT chance, but that is why we play the games...
Those are the numbers you get when neither team has won by more than 10 points in a decade.
The numbers look at GT/Tennessee and can't figure out how GT didn't win that game by 20. Their other game was a walkover against a 1-AA squad, and their game against UCF was cancelled.
I want this game to be a shootout in the first half and then for us to pull away handily. I want some encouragement that we can put up points against a team not leading ESPN's bottom 10.
Also, I took the over with the assumption that if ECU can put up 17 on us, surely ODU can put at least that much and 40 from our side doesn't seem that hard to do these days against lesser competition.
So we have a less chance to beat Miami than Clemson? Its Nevin Shapiro's fault.
The team has to actually play games in order to have statistics. Miami's rating is based off being bak in the preseason and a single 41-13 win over a school you've never heard of.
Not that we dominated Delaware, but that game was close until late. And then they bust out that stupid gold chain. Like I get it, if you rush for 100 yards and 2 TDs against FSU, walk around like the bad ass that you are. If you score against Bethel High School or whoever, don't act like you won the super bowl.
I don't fault them for not playing games, can't predict Mother Nature and probably the right decision all around. Just don't act like you're bak after one game against nobody.
To clarify, the preseason projections used by S&P+ are not subjective. They take the final numbers from the prior season and adjust for things like turnover, recent success, and recruiting. Talking heads saying Miami is "back" doesn't influence it in any way.
The bigger impact is that Clemson is a home game, and Miami is an away game.
Not sure that Miami actually counts as an away game, don't they have to have fans for that?
But isn't the "adjustment" for player turnover and, especially, recruiting largely subjective measures masquerading as objective measures?
I love subjective evaluations with decimal points in them.
May I use (steal) that line?
I found a typo:
There's no way there's an FBS team worse than LOLUVA.
/s
The most important word in that sentence is "currently."
Though it'll last for at least another week after the beatdown we're about to hand the Monarchs, which is one week too long.
It'll even out at season's end...
I know that BC is not very good this year (as in most years), but they always scare me - especially when it is more than likely going to be a sleepy nooner in Chestnut Hill following an emotionally draining game. The 89.7% chance for Tech seems about right statistically, but my gut tells me otherwise. I know this is looking too far ahead, but regardless of the Clemson outcome, I really hope we can re-focus quickly.
Same for me with Pitt...
Ya, they always worry me too. The good thing is, we have them at home and towards the end of the season. I'm hoping they'll be fatigued from their front-heavy schedule.
Are you going to talk about the computer ranking that has ODU in the top 20?
That would be CSL who has them at #18: https://sites.google.com/site/cslratings/home/division-1-fbs
That particular ranking uses W-L for the team, the teams they played, and the teams those teams played. Oddly when you look at them, they actually aren't terrible rankings...really it's ODU that stands out. But it doesn't use margin of victory, which almost universally produces better rankings than using W-L only.
What about the one that seems to have us first? That seems to be the most accurate, objectively speaking
EDIT: Nvm, i should have just scrolled down
Are the rush, passing, and special teams stats being reserved for ACC season or have there just not been enough games to compile meaningful data? Joel saving some time and complexity and eliminating them? I always liked to see how VT stacks up in all the phases of the game.
Also where is the TOP comparison?
... ?
We're 40th in the nation in rushing offense and averaging over 200 yards rushing per game, a number that's hurt significantly by shitting the bed against Delaware. From what data are you extrapolating that we are struggling in the ground game?
probably because we shit the bed against Delaware? You know, just my guess.
Yeah, but even with that outlier, our rushing game has been respectable on average through three weeks. The claim that we haven't been able to establish a run game against mediocre competition just strikes me as lacking a statistical basis, unless there are some metrics Joel is using to reach that conclusion that I'm oblivious to.
Can we really call it an outlier if we have only 3 games of data? Seems to me like it was a bad game. Thats what non-elite rushing offenses have, bad games.
I was speaking more specifically about Delaware, but here are some stats:
- VT is 64th in the country in yards per carry
- Their FBS opponents to this point rank 90th and 126th in the country in yards per carry defense
Not saying the running game is hopeless by any means, and McLease in particular has shown a lot of promise. But to have an average ypc against two of the worst run defenses in FBS and an FCS team is hardly establishing a solid ground game.
Now I see where you're coming from. But consider:
All this to say, I don't think we can make any valid inferences from YPC, good or bad.
The very fact that a team from a lower division ran roughshod over them is not a reason to discount the numbers. JMU is a good team, but we're not talking Alabama here. If anything JMU should have been equivalent to a mid-range FBS team and that data would certainly be useful in evaluating ECU's YPC allowed.
Not trying to throw out the outlier, just saying that they've had two games giving up around 4.5 ypc and one giving up 9.6 ypc. They're averaging giving up 6.1 ypc with a standard deviation of 3. The standard deviation is half the average. There's not much predictive power there.
Besides, it's obvious that JMU's run game coordinator is an excellent coach, and any program would be lucky to have him on its staff.
I bet it feels good to be able to say that sarcastically after making it your blog's goal to get him canned for all those years.
Which computer thinks we are number 1?
My work computer.
That would be the Nutshell system: http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html
Unfortunately the details aren't shared on the site, but i think we can all agree it's a pretty fantastic system.
Obligatory
But yes, that is now the best computer
Nutshell Sports Ratings are based on the following components in order of priority:
1. Head to head scores are the most important. Schedule strength is included naturally.
2. Only the few most recent games are relevant. The older games are irrelevant.
3. The typical recent game is more important than the last game.
Found it on their Site Guide.
"Only the few recent games are relevant"
Has LSU #2. MSU 53.
Has Auburn ahead of Clemson.
Texas still top 25...
Virginia 28?! Indiana 51.
A lot of those don't even make sense if you include how teams finished last year in "recent games"
edit: Oooooooh these are David Wilson's ratings. No wonder VT is #1.
No. 7 Oshane Ximes, a defensive end, is a really good player for ODU. He will get a yard deep and then bench press the right offensive tackle and look to shed laterally. Kyle Chung has a really good test. This is the best defensive line VT has played yet. The entire group has great motor. UNC blew ODU out, but that was more a byproduct of ODU's offense putting them in bad spots and wearing down. UNC's OL did not look like they were having a good time. It was a very physical battle inside.
Screens and veers for days?
Was it an intentional low kick?
Unc had no problem establishing the run from the start - both outside sweeps and up the middle. Their 2 RBs ran all over odu and the qb had all day to throw. I think their DL is overhyped by some stats from the first two games. They were not impressive against the Carolina OL.