Who: #15/15 Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1, 3-1 ACC) @ Duke Blue Devils (3-4, 1-2 ACC)
Time: 12:30 PM
TV Coverage: ACC Network (Tim Brant, Dave Archer, Scott Pryzwansky)
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC (33,941 – Grass)
Series History: Virginia Tech leads 11-7
- Last Meeting (2010): Virginia Tech 44, Duke 7
- Coach Beamer is a perfect 7-0 against Duke
- The Hokies have won 10 straight games against the Blue Devils, dating back to 1981
- In 7 ACC contests, the Hokies have outscored Duke by an average of 37-8
Injury Report
- LB Alonzo Tweedy – Out (ankle)
- OL Mark Shuman – Out (knee/ankle)
The Opponent: The Hokies start the final third of their season by facing the first of four consecutive Coastal Division opponents. This Duke team has continued a trend of Blue Devil teams under David Cutcliffe, slowly working its way into a competitive nature. The Blue Devils are more consistent than in years past, but they still have their Duke moments, such as losing to Richmond for their third consecutive time.
At 3-4, the Blue Devils possess wins over Boston College, Tulane, and FIU. They, too, finish the season with all Coastal Division games, but they play all five division opponents in a row, starting with Tech.
- On Offense: Duke throws the ball a lot, and that’s about all they do. The Blue Devils, led by quarterback Sean Renfree (6-5, 225, r-JR), rank 22nd in the nation in passing offense. Renfree has thrown for 1,800 yards in seven games and has cut down on his interceptions from previous years. He’s tossed six touchdowns and has been intercepted just four times this year.
It also helps when you have top-tier receivers, like Duke does. Conner Vernon (6-1, 195, JR) and Donovan Varner (5-9, 175, SR) are Renfree’s top targets and they’re some of the best in the ACC. Vernon leads the team with 652 yards and four touchdowns, while Varner supplements with 397 yards on 34 catches. But it doesn’t end there. Brandon Baxton (6-1, 190, SO) starts as a third receiver and has 26 catches for 174 yards. Tight end Cooper Helfet (6-4, 240, SR) has 251 yards receiving and two touchdowns to add to the attack.
Duke uses multiple running backs, but in a pass-oriented offense, their main threat comes as checkdowns and screen options. Juwan Thompson (5-11, 215, SO) is listed as the starter, but Desmond Scott (5-9, 190, JR) and Jay Hollingsworth (5-10, 200, SR) will also play a good amount. Thompson is the leading rusher, averaging 4.4 yards per carry to go along with his 5 touchdowns while also catching 16 passes out of the backfield. Scott boasts a 6+ ypc average on the ground on fewer attempts than Thompson, while Hollingsworth is used primarily in passing situations, averaging 9.6 ypc on 13 catches.
The Blue Devils offensive line hasn’t been as successful as they need to be, especially in pass protection. Duke gives up more than two sacks per game and converts just a hair over 40 percent on third downs. Two sophomores and a freshman make up 60 percent of the line, which has led to the inconsistency.
- On Defense: The Blue Devils just simply don’t have the talent to compete at a high-caliber level despite the passion they play with. Duke allows nearly 400 yards per game, including 264 passing yards, the 18th-worst mark in the nation. Half of Duke’s defense consists of freshman and sophomores, which explains the problems that have shown up so far. The Blue Devils play a 4-2-5, but still can’t stop the pass.
Kenny Anunike was Duke’s best lineman, but was lost for the season with a knee injury. Instead, Duke starts two sophomores and a freshman up front along with senior Charlie Hatcher (6-3, 300, r-SR), who has 2.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. The other three starters have those totals combined.
In the 4-2-5, Duke obviously only has two linebackers, one of which is Kelby Brown (6-2, 220, SO). A Freshman All-American a year ago, Brown is second on the team in tackles with 43, and tackles for loss with 5.5. Austin Gamble (6-1, 235, JR) joins Brown at the other linebacker spot.
The secondary is where Duke struggles statistically, this despite starting three safeties. Matt Daniels (6-1, 210, SR) is the best of the bunch, leading Duke in tackles with 69 and pass breakups with 11. He has the ability to cover well downfield and also come up and assist in stopping the running game. August Campbell (6-3, 225, r-SO) and Walt Canty (6-0, 215, JR) also start at safety, but are much better at stopping the running game than covering downfield, thus leaving the deep middle as a vulnerable area against the Duke defense. At corner, Ross Cockrell (6-0, 175, r-SO) was a Freshman All-American last year and is joined by Johnny Williams (5-10, 190, SR), who is in his second season as a cornerback after converting from wide receiver.
Players to Watch:
- Virginia Tech
- WR #19 Danny Coale
- Last Week vs Boston College: 8 catches, 118 yards
- Last Year vs Duke: 2 catches, 51 yards
- This Season: 40 catches, 565 yards, 2 TD
- LB #52 Barquell Rivers
- Last Week vs Boston College: 4 tackles, 2 solo, 1 QB hurry
- This Season: 9 tackles, 5 solo, 2 QB hurries
- Starting in place of injured LB Bruce Taylor
- Duke
- QB #19 Sean Renfree
- Last Week vs Wake Forest: 28/45, 213 yards, 0 TD, INT
- Last Year vs Virginia Tech: 12/32, 116 yards, 0 TD, INT
- This Season: 186/274, 1800 yards, 6 TD, 4 INT
- S #40 Matt Daniels
- Last Week vs Wake Forest: 7 tackles, 4 solo, 1 breakup
- Last Year vs Virginia Tech: 8 tackles, 2 solo, 1 fumble recovery
- This Season: 69 tackles, 37 solo, 2.5 for loss, 11 breakups, 1 forced fumble
Matchups to Watch:
- Duke Offensive Line vs Virginia Tech Defensive Line
- Duke Passing Game vs Virginia Tech Secondary
- Virginia Tech Passing Game vs Duke Secondary
- Virginia Tech Linebackers vs Duke Wide Receivers
Keys to Victory:
- Virginia Tech
- Start Fast, Stay Fast
- Stop the Run, Force the Pass
- Duke
- Create Some Sort of Balance on Offense
- Don’t Allow the Big Play on Defense
Projected Score: Virginia Tech 41, Duke 17
Comments
Alright, boys!
We did our part this week, showing the rest of these out-of-state chuckleheads what Commonwealth teams can do! Now you boys take it to these Duke prep-school rejects hard! If you're in a generous mood, remember to use at least a little lube... and maybe call 'em the morning after!
Wahoo wah and Go Hokies!!!
Thoughts
More Players to Watch -- Fuller and Nick Dew
I don't expect to see a lot of Dew. I think in obvious passing situations Cris Hill will come in and we'll run the Nickel package. Against Clemson and ECU, the two teams that passed the ball as much as Duke will, GW only played 17 and 4 snaps at Whip respectively. On "running downs" (which for Duke are still passing downs) I still think we'll see a lot of Fuller in the game actually playing Whip. Yes, it'll be the Nickel personnel, but our 4-3 scheme. It's nothing against Dew, who I think will be a tremendous player, I just don't think he's been in the system long enough, and the coaches really trust Fuller to cover and make the tackles that the Whip has to do. If things start to get out of hand I think we'll see more Dew, which would be a good thing for him to get the experience because in high school the kid could ball and he's going to have to be a player going forward for us.
"The Blue Devils play a 4-2-5, but still can't stop the pass."
I like the Hokies 38-14.
Score
Hokies will be too much for the Dukies, but I think Duke will get one of those early scores the Hokies have been allowing to lesser teams this year (Ark St for instance). Hokies will run over the Devils, Wilson goes for 150+, LT3 will throw for 260 again, and the Hokies will win big.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 48, Duke 10
Slow starts
I dont know why we need a good 5 minutes of play to wake up but its happened all too often this year. Im hoping for a 42-20 rout.
Hokies 38-10. Duke goes up 3-0 though. DW accounts for over 200 yards on offense.
I'm thinking a littler closer
We will start slow as always, but end up winning 34-20. Duke will be able to move the ball on a few possessions and put up some points.
David Wilson
With Duke playing a 4-2-5, this may be the day when David Wilson goes for 2 football fields on the ground. He is still due a 200+ yard game and unless Duke does something different on defense I see no reason why he can't do this tomorrow. We have to shake the slow starts, if so, this is a dominating when for the Hokies. I've got the Hokies 41-17.
Curb your enthusiasm on the high scores
With 90% chance of rain and temperatures in the upper 40s, this doesn't sound like the makings of a shootout or blowout. If the field is sloppy, look for Oglesby to get a lot of carries to prevent a DW injury. Also expect Duke to put 8 in the box, even if they play a 4-2-5. I think DW will still get his 7th consecutive 100yd game, but probably won't top 150. Let's go conservative, old school VT score: 23 - 6.
I enjoyed this quote: "Half of Duke’s defense consists of freshman and sophomores, which explains the problems that have shown up so far." And VT plays with 7 freshman and sophomores on the field; 8 if Jayron can't go. Duke's problem is they just can't get any talent.