Halfwits and Wagers: Extra Degenerate Duke Edition

How. Bout. Them. Hokies.

I was in the stadium last weekend and watched one of the most entertaining first halves in recent memory. Watching all those Tech defenders rumble their way to the end zone made me harken back to the days when the Hokies relied on non-offensive ways to score.

But now we're all on to Duke, another North Carolina institution with football problems of their own (albeit with far fewer issues of academic integrity). The Blue Devils have lost their last four, including last week's bedwetting against the Fighting Narduzzis in Durham. But they've fared well against the Hokies in recent memory (we'll get to that in just a second), so this thing is far from a layup.

Pierson had to do adult things this week like "work" and "drive with his wife and young child to Blacksburg," and so in his place we have resident co-degenerate Joey Coogan.

We promise to not let this get as vulgar as our personal Slack correspondence does every Saturday after placing a few wagers.

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under 2.5 times the ACC Network commentators remind viewers that Duke has won two straight in Blacksburg.

Brian: Hey, want to start bleeding from the eyeballs due to a stress-induced brain hemorrhage? Just look at each visit the Blue Devils have made to Lane Stadium since Tyrod Taylor graduated:

2012: We all remember this as the year everything fell apart. Fresh off an 11-3 season that ended at the Sugar Bowl, Hokie fans expected big things after an impressive sophomore showing from Logan Thomas. They were quickly disappointed. The 13th ranked Hokies got smoked at Heinz Field, and then promptly lost to Cincinnati at FedEx Field two weeks later (causing me to write an open letter telling Tech fans to stop being terrible. I refuse to link to it, because I used more ellipses than coherent sentences.)

So did Thomas and company storm back in their first game at home after falling to the Bearcats and then UNC in Chapel Hill? Not exactly. In a game against 5-1 Duke, the Hokies fell down 20-0 in the first quarter before eventually winning 41-20. It wasn't great.

2013: After losing to Alabama in the opener, Tech won six straight and came into the Duke game ranked 16th. Thomas proceeded to throw four picks, and even though the Blue Devils gained a whopping 198 yards, they won 13-10. The Hokies wound up losing four of six to end the season.

2015: Oh boy. A duel between Thomas Sirk and Michael Brewer that became one for the ages. It was one of those dumb ACC games that, when you're an innocent bystander, you want to last as long as possible. But when it's your team, a 45-43 quadruple OT marathon is far less amusing. Especially on the losing end.

So yeah, Duke games haven't been great in Lane lately. And I'm sure it'll be brought up.

Joey: First of all, I take offense to the word "degenerate." That implies I lose. I'm an addict, sure, but no degenerate.

With my official protest formally registered, this is an easy one for two reasons:

1. The ACC Network sucks.

2. As a (not) recent (enough) Virginia Tech grad, I'm emotionally scarred by Duke football. The 2013 game in Blacksburg was quite possibly the worst 3 hours of my life, 180 minutes of Anthony Boone throwing picks and completing ZERO second-half passes en route to a 13-10 win over an inept Hokies' offense. Long story short: Grandpa Cutcliffe is in my head.

Given those two facts of life, Duke's recent dominance in Lane promises to be a hot topic Saturday night. Over.

Over/Under 19.5 total touches for Blue Devil running back Shaun Wilson

Brian: This has been a chronic problem for David Cutcliffe's offense so far. In their three wins over power five teams, Wilson has averaged 20 touches and 113 total yards. In their four losses? 13 touches and 75 yards.

Wilson is a diminutive, yet explosive back, and needs to get the ball a lot more if Duke wants to make a bowl game. Because instead, they've given many more passing attempts to quarterback Daniel Jones, a plan that doesn't seem to be going great:

Every QB this season that Pitt has faced has averaged at least 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Duke/Daniel Jones at 3.9.— Lauren Brownlow (@lebrownlow) October 21, 2017

out here doing the lord's work pic.twitter.com/XFCFSYEumu— Erin Brown (@Erin_Brownie) October 14, 2017

Time of death: 3:27pm Welcome to basketball season.— Ben Swain (@TheBenSwain) October 21, 2017

Considering this is a crucial point in attempting to turn their season back around, I say Wilson gets a ton of action. I'll take the over.

Joey: The smart thing to do here would be to research Shaun Wilson's offensive numbers, cross-checking them against opposing defenses' strengths to reach some sort of logical (and ideally predictive) conclusion. That's not how I gamble.

I like the under here, if only because Daniel Jones' underrated legs scare the hell out of me. I think he's good for 10+ carries, just enough to keep Wilson under the 19 touches mark.

(I just checked Wilson's stats. Love the under even more. 2-0.)

Who causes more turnovers: Virginia Tech or Duke

Brian: One thing that Cutcliffe's group has done really well is force turnovers. Their defense is tied for fourth in the country in interceptions, and has taken an NCAA-best four of those back for scores. The Tech defense, on the other hand, hasn't done a great job in that department. That is, until they smacked UNC around last weekend.

But as impressive as the Blue Devils' INT totals are, they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of QBs in 2017. The guys at NC Central and Northwestern aren't any good, Baylor and North Carolina are absolute garbage fires, Kirk Benkert is decidedly average, and both FSU and Pittsburgh started backups (and won). The only good signal caller on that list is Miami's Malik Rosier, and he put up 270 yards and two scores.

Josh Jackson has only thrown four picks. And even if they're not always effective, the offense doesn't turn it over (only six all year). I'll take Tech to win this one.

Joey: Tons of recency bias at play here, but this is a cupcake. I think the Hokies pick Jones off twice and force a fumble or two in the rain, meaning Tech would have to be especially careless with the football to lose this one.

The running back carousel is the one position group that gives me pause (GIVE ME MORE COLEMAN FOX), but Josh Jackson's been steady enough to ride with Tech here.

Over/Under: 300.5 total yards by Josh Jackson

Brian: The freshman has hit this mark against West Virginia, East Carolina, Old Dominion, and Boston College. He may have had more production against UNC, but success on defense and special teams kept him off the field for a large chunk of time. Duke only gives up 197 yards a game through the air, but again please revisit the quarterbacks they've played so far. With Cam Phillips now three weeks removed from the ankle injury and Sean Savoy coming on as a legitimate second option, I say Jackson and his teammates bounce back from a lackadaisical performance last week.

Joey: I'm getting quite worried that Brian and I are agreeing too much. Given our recent gambling history*, that normally spells trouble.

That said, I like Josh Jackson hitting the over here. Phillips got a nice breather in the second half against UNC, and Steven Peoples returning to the rotation means we're destined for a 50-yard wheel route midway through the second quarter. I'm going 280 passing yards, 55 rushing yards. Over.

*Saturday mornings normally go something like this:

Brian: "What do we like today?"

Joey: "Navy first half, Navy game, Navy over."

Brian: "Who are they playing?"

Joey: "Let me check."

Which is greater: Greg Stroman's average yards per punt return, or Daniel Jones' average yards per pass attempt?

Brian: Yes, this line seems savage. But then you realize that Jones only averages 5.8 yards per attempt, which is a number that Stroman's surpassed in five of seven games. This all comes down to how many times Duke punts, and how many of those are returnable. If the number is greater than three, I'll take Stroman.

Joey: This is such a ridiculous line. Thankfully, I have the benefit of reading Brian's astute research on Jones' piss-poor passing numbers before providing my answer, meaning this really becomes a question of whether or not I expect Stroman to house one (or at least come close). That answer is always yes, so I'm rolling with BeamerBall.

Matchup Over/Under: 48

Brian: I feel like this line is artificially inflated after the beatdown put on the Tar Heels last week. Duke hasn't scored more than three touchdowns in over a month, and assuming Bud Foster's defense comes out swinging for the second time in a row, the Blue Devils will struggle to put up points. But do we really trust Jackson and the offense to score enough to hit the over here? Personally, I need to see it happen against an ACC team before I bet it. I'll take the under.

Joey: Life's too short to bet the under. 6-0.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-15.5)

Brian: Duke isn't good. They beat the four worst teams on their schedule, which happened to be the first four games of the year. Since the 4-0 start they've come crashing down to earth, and have consistently struggled when opponent with more talented opponent across from them. Cutcliffe has said how much he needs to do a better job coaching, and after a home loss to a 3-5 Pittsburgh team, he's probably right.

But this seems too high to me, if only for one reason. The Hokies have the most important game of their season next week in Coral Gables. Should Miami win on Saturday, Tech will play a Hurricane team that's undefeated and in the top eight. The Hokies need a win next week, it'll validate their (probably inflated) ranking, and keep them on the fringes of a big time bowl game in January. So Duke is destined to be a lookahead game, if you believe in those type of things.

Do I think the Hokies win? Absolutely. Will I throw them in a three-team teaser and get the line down to 9.5? You bet your ass I will. But do I expect them to cover 15.5 in what I think will be an uncomfortably close contest through three quarters? I do not.

Duke covers, but Tech wins comfortably 31-16.

Joey: This screams "stay away" for me. I'm not exactly sure why (it's probably the Grandpa Cutcliffe point we talked about earlier), but it just feels like a classic Vegas line where you shake your head and keep scrolling down your cracked iPhone screen to find a game you like.

Given that disclaimer, I'll take Duke and the backdoor cover here. Tech should win comfortably against a reeling Blue Devils team, but a late Daniel Jones scamper brings it within two scores. 34-20, Hokies.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.