-Rankings based on AP
-There are 12 spots available, but the Orange Bowl includes the best remaining ACC and B10 Teams which would most likely be Miami and Ohio State (both teams win out except ND beats Miami), leaving 10 spots available
-Obviously VT has to win out
-1 Georgia, 2 Alabama, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Clemson win out (Georgia or Bama wins championship, both get in). Leaving 6 spots available.
- You want the Big 12 to beat each other up, leaving only one Big 12 team better than VT, Oklahoma has the most difficult remaining schedule against TCU and WVU and You want them to lose both of those games or one of those games and the Big 12 championship, and TCU to win out. You also want OkSt to lose next week in Ames or in the Big 12 championship. 5 spots available
- Wisconsin to win out and lose to Ohio State, They might not get in a NY6, but they probably will. 4 spots available
- UCF wins out. 3 spots available
- Auburn loses to both Alabama and Georgia, keeping them out
- Michigan State loses to Ohio State
- Washington loses to either Wazzu or Stanford, If Wazzu beats Washington, they must lose to Utah this week
- USC wins out keeping them in. 2 spots left
- Virginia Tech gets in as an at large
Believe it or not, there actually is a solid chance of this happening, It is just dependent on Oklahoma losing 2. Hopefully the CFB Rankings put VT over teams like PSU and MSU and USC, That makes two more spots available
Cotton Bowl: TCU vs Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: UCF vs USC
Peach Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Penn State
Orange Bowl: Miami vs Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Clemson vs Georgia
I really really really really really want to play Penn State also
Basically a Preview for Who to Root for
Comments
I can't fathom why anyone here would want a NY6 bowl after seeing what this team does on a big stage. Give me a Camping World or Citrus Bowl against a more equivalent team.
Actually, it would be a lesser opponent like last year, because if the Big 12 did not get in the Playoff, the Big 12 would have 2 at-large teams and the next best team (OkSt) would play in the Alamo Bowl. That would mean that VT would play against Texas or Iowa State. I for one, would rather play USC or Penn State than Texas or Iowa State
Ehhh, Swinney kept "Clemsoning" forever. Eventually, he got them over that hump.
Keep giving Fuente a shot, he will figure it out.
I want to play in big games. Does anyone wish we had won the El Paso Toilet Bowl, or get robbed in the Sugar Bowl?
UCF won't get Fiesta. They will get Peach bowl or whoever is the eventual non group of 5 best.
I wouldn't want to play Penn State after what we showed against Miami. Our best chance is to get into the Peach bowl. If not hopefully we get into a decent Citrus or Camping World:
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
I kind of just guessed for the At-Large games
Since when did we get such a pussy identity of not wanting to play certain teams. Sure we're known to lose big games but in the past, we were always desperate for big stage games. I for one would love to see us play penn state.
I'd love to play Penn State too but only if Saquon sits out the bowl like Fournette and McCaffrey did last season. I'm scared and I'm not afraid to admit it.
I dunno about you, but
double negative. good move
One of them functions as an intensifier.
since we got our butts handed to us by Clemson and Miami
Short version - get ranked in the top 11 (to get the at-large spots), or be the second highest ranked ACC team (to get the Orange Bowl). However, if any of the conference champs are ranked 10 or below, then the ranking needs to be higher for an at-large spot.
Here's how the bowls and teams will break down:
-The SEC is most likely getting at least one team in the semis (Alabama and/or Georgia). That means that the SEC champ won't get displaced due to their bowl (Sugar) being in the semis. The second best team in the SEC is most likely either going to be in the semis, or will take the Orange Bowl spot.
-The ACC champ is either going to be in the semis or the Orange Bowl, so we don't have to worry about them taking an at-large spot.
-Pac-12 champ is most likely getting displaced from the Rose Bowl.
-I'm pretty sure they announced that the G5 team will be going to the Peach Bowl. I think the committee determined that the fairest way to deal with the G5 team is to rotate them around the three at-large bowls. Since they have to go to the Cotton Bowl in year three of each cycle (which was last year), they have fallen into a rotation of Peach, Fiesta, Cotton.
-If Alabama, Georgia, ND, and Clemson are the final four, then there will be three conference champs displaced from their bowls, which only leaves two true at-large spots.
If this weekend and literally every single season of college football ever have taught me anything, it's the trying to project through the end of the season with "So and So wins out" is pretty much a crapshoot at best
Plus there are so many moving pieces.
Here's a scenario that can throw a monkey wrench in the process.
-Auburn is the highest SEC/Big Ten team for the Orange Bowl spot.
-Clemson wins the ACC but doesn't make the semis.
-The next highest SEC/Big Ten team is ranked #16 or so.
The Orange Bowl has a "try to avoid rematches" clause, so they would go down their list to replace Auburn. Auburn would be guaranteed a NY6 spot in another bowl. And then Auburn would end up pushing the #12 ranked team out of a NY6 bowl.
Kind of hard to predict; lots of things have to fall into place for X to happen:
1. Virginia wins out;
If we wound up playing Penn State and winning, that would be the best thing apart from winning the ACC and NC.
Having to hear crap from PSU fans every day I will give a strong
By far, the easiest (and most likely) way of getting to the NY6 is as the 2nd highest ranked ACC squad when the champion goes to the playoff.
Miami plays ND this week. A ND win could (should?) drop Miami right to the edge of the Top 10. VT wins the next few weeks, and we're probably right back in that 13 or 14 ranking that we were last weekend. Miami losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship could very well see them fall below us, granting us the entry into the NY6 over them.
Would the committee "punish" Miami for playing an extra game though? Memory is fuzzy, but what's been the precedent for that? Obviously, they whooped our tails. Hate for us to back door them on the way to a NY6 if we win out and they lose to ND and Clemson.
didn't they punish PSU last year for playing an extra game? /s
a.) Technically, Miami wouldn't have an "extra" game, since they cancelled one.
b.) Last year, VT, FSU, and Louisville all finished 9-3 in the regular season. VT lost the extra game to be 9-4, and was still the lowest ranked of those teams. In fact, FSU finished higher than Louisville, even those Louisville won the head-to-head 63-20.
Leg for the research I was too lazy to do.
Yeah. Polls have a pretty big recency bias
This may be true, but the flip side of this argument is that teams rarely arrive at the end of the season in the same form they started in. I'm certain no one here would say the 2010 team should have been held down in the rankings for what happened over 5 days in September.
So it would essentially depend on how highly ranked we would be if that would happen, if head to head doesn't mean as much. Miami would be 11-2 and VT would be 10-2 so it would be more likely that Miami would be ranked higher
EDIT: Oh yeah hurricane
Both would be 10-2. Miami is only playing 11 regular season games.
It's going to be hard to predict until Miami actually loses a game and we see how far they drop. They could get hammered for not having any impressive wins until us. Or the committee could forget about that.
We didn't get punished though, those teams were demonstrably better. If anything we got a boost in perception for keeping it close with Clemson
That's why I avoided the word "punish". But I think arguments could be made each way. All three teams lost to Clemson by one score. Louisville had the wheels come off pretty badly at the end of the season, losing to Houston and Kentucky. As for FSU, they probably had the worst loss of the bunch (Louisville) in terms of margin of defeat, although we had ugly losses to Tennessee and Syracuse. But FSU lost to UNC, while we obliterated the cheaters.
I think its more likely that Miami would be put in above us in the scenario that they only lose to ND and Clemson. I'm still not sold on Miami and until they beat ND I think there is a decent chance that they drop the UVA game, especially after a draining game this weekend. If that occurs then I think we will go the orange bowl if we win out. I think the Miami loss will come back to haunt us after they start falling apart. Their only win that has any value was against us, and frankly because of how young the offense is we have a huge swing of being one of the best in the ACC to being garbage. IMO this is mainly because of the stage of the games and the lack of the maturity that allows for the blocking out of noise (literally and metaphorically). I hate to go for UVA but it would be nice to go to the orange bowl and for everyone to declare the U is in fact not back.
Now that we have new rankings, we can do some bowl projections, or at least enough projecting to determine where the target to get into the NY6 is. As of now, I will assume that the highest ranked team in a conference is the projected champion.
ACC ranked teams are #4 Clemson, #7 Miami, #17 VT, and #23 NC State. That projects Clemson into the semis, and Miami in the Orange Bowl.
#18 UCF is the leading candidate for the G5 representative.
If we just go with current rankings and ignore future match-ups, then we get Georgia, Alabama, ND, and Clemson in the semis. #5 Oklahoma, #8 Wisconsin, and #9 Washington would be displaced from their respective bowl slots, and would fill 3 of the 5 at-large spots. #10 Auburn would be the Orange Bowl opponent. The highest remaining teams for the at-large spots are #6 TCU and #11 USC.
Even if you want to say that only one SEC team gets into the semis, it doesn't change the teams that get into the NY6. The loser of the SECCG will go to the Orange Bowl, and Oklahoma replaces them in the semis. Auburn then takes Oklahoma's spot in the at-large teams.
I know that Oklahoma plays TCU this weekend, so they won't stay at 5/6, but either way, it's still looking like the only path to an at-large spot is to be in the top 11.
The only way for VT to get into the NY6 without being in the top 11 is to be ranked higher than Miami to get that Orange Bowl spot. However, I think that sweet spot of them falling enough and us rising up is probably somewhere around #11 in the rankings.
A quick look at the list of teams for the other Orange Bowl slot.
#1 Georgia(SEC, CFP)#2 Alabama(SEC, CFP)#3 Notre Dame(CFP)#9 Wisconsin(Big Ten, projected champ)#10 Auburn (SEC) - current projection
#12 Michigan State (Big Ten)
#13 Ohio State (Big Ten)
#14 Penn State (Big Ten)
#16 Mississippi State
#20 Iowa (Big Ten)
#24 LSU (SEC)
#25 Northwestern (Big Ten)
Of course, with the games over the next couple of weeks, all of those teams in the teens are going to get moved around a lot.
Regardless of everything else, we win out and we get at least the Citrus bowl. This would be a top notch bowl for us outside the NY6...we haven't had this type of a bowl since we played in the 2009 Chick-Fil-A bowl not counting the BCS bowls. Off course I'm hoping to play in the NY6 this year at least in the Peach Bowl.
Keep going 1-0
We only get Citrus Bowl if the Big Ten gets the Orange Bowl, which as of the current standings, doesn't look like it will happen. However, a lot can change with that, since Auburn still has to face the two top teams of the SEC.
You're probably referring to the Camping World Bowl (easy to confuse, both are run by the same folks in the same stadium). I'm still not sure that we're a lock even if we keep winning, although I'll feel more comfortable about getting it if everyone else drops and/or stays at least two games behind us.
No, I'm still thinking there is a possibility that big 10 ends up in the orange against the loser of the acc championship but hey, if chaos ensues anything can happen. Now don't count us out as an at-large, if more chaos, we can move right around #12 which could earn US a bid in ATL
My slightly lengthy tribute to the biggest two letter word in this thread. https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46473/if---