The Georgia Tech loss may have been painful, but do not forget the Hokies were only a slight favorite in the game. This week, Virginia Tech is a huge favorite at home against a Pitt team that is definitely struggling this season. However, the Panthers have upset the Hokies many times in the past...will they on Saturday?
Where the Season Stands
Virginia Tech is currently 7-3. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:
The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:
The 10-win regular season is no longer possible, but the Hokies have just over a 50% chance of winning out. That, plus a bowl win, would result in a 10-win overall season, a very successful season even if it does not include a Coastal division title.
Rankings and Computer Predictions
The computer rankings and predictions for each team:
Whether it was the painful loss last Saturday, or Tech's history against Pittsburgh, most Hokie fans likely aren't comforted by the large point spread. The odds of a 17-point favorite winning is 82.8%.
Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:
Neither offense has been anything but average, but the Hokies bring a much, much better defense to the table. The question is, how much will a recent rash of Tech injuries impact the Hokies.
When Virginia Tech Has the Ball
Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.
Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?
The Hokies have been poor at the run, and downright abysmal in passing situations, but the Panthers match up as poor in each as well.
Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokies' offense versus the Panthers' defense:
The one strength the Hokies have consistently exhibited is gaining at least one first down on each drive, and Pitt has not been well at creating three-and-outs. The Hokies should move the ball, but the lingering issue is whether or not those drives convert to points.
The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:
- Florida International
- Georgia State
- Temple
The Pittsburgh defense is closest in personality to:
- Louisiana Tech
- Colorado State
- Tulane
When Pittsburgh Has the Ball
Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:
The Panthers' greatest strength is rushing. Although, just as when Tech has the ball, the defensive strengths align well with the offensive strengths.
Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:
As for personality traits:
Pitt's biggest strength has been protecting the ball, and the Hokies' defense rates well in every area except for creating turnovers. Defensive success will likely come from stopping the Panthers and not taking away the ball.
The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:
- South Florida
- Washington State
- Ohio State
The Pittsburgh offense is closest in personality to:
- Arkansas
- Southern Miss
- Northern Illinois
Special Teams
First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:
Virginia Tech is No. 9 nationally and is excellent in all phases except field goal efficiency.
When the Panthers kick:
Pitt's special teams unit is not as good head-to-toe, but has been great at punt returns and field goals.
Who To Watch Out For
What's most important is that Pitt does not have a James Connor.
- LB Oluwaseun Idowu (No. 23, R-JR, 6-0, 225) has 10.5 tackles for loss (No. 58) and including 4.0 sacks.
- WR Jester Weah (No. 85, R-SR, 6-3, 210) gains 9.7 yards per target and 16.6 yards per catch.
- QB Ben Dinucci (No. 3, R-SO, 6-2, 220) is considerably less efficient than QB Max Browne (No. 4, R-SR, 6-5, 230). Dinucci has completed 84 of 150 (56.0%) passes for 1,037 yards (6.9 yards per attempt), 4 TDs, and 4 INTs. Conversely, Browne has completed 96 of 135 (71.1%) passes for 997 yards (7.4 yards per attempt), 5 TDs, and 2 INTs. However, Dinucci may be used as a running threat against a Tech defense known for giving up bunches of rushing yards to quarterbacks. Dinucci averages 5.7 yards per carry on the season.
Statistical Key to the Game
What concerns me most about the matchup is Virginia Tech's inability to create turnovers coupled with Pitt's ability to make first downs and drive down the field via the run. When Pitt faces third downs, Virginia Tech has to stop the Panthers from converting, so third down conversion percentage for Pitt is my statistical key.
Statistical Prediction
After many years of Pitt upsetting the Hokies, it's hard to buy the 17-point spread in this game. But that still leaves Tech as a strong favorite, and it's hard to imagine a loss to this team even if a cover seems unlikely.
Virginia Tech 37, Pitt 24
As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.
Comments
Great write up as always, each week I look forward to this article. Thanks for number crunching, and let's hope this class of seniors finishes strong. Cheers!
Ooof. But realistic.
Thanks for putting together this information every week. We have won all of the games we were favored in, and lost the ones we weren't. Let's hope that trend can continue!
Counterpoint:
I'll take it.
Fucking Temple, ruining a perfectly good homecoming
I don't gamble much so I don't track these sorts of things, but did the line on this game move at all with the news of the Edmunds injury?
Depends on which book you look at, but it didn't move much. 2 points at most from what I've seen, and it seems to have just been gradual, not really consistent with the news of the injury. If I had to guess, it probably has more to do with the public putting more money on Pitt to cover. Most books have us at about VT-15.5 today
Looks like most Vegas casinos have moved to -15.5...can't say that's entirely the injury, but it's the one cause that sticks out.
Stats aside, we need to play with heart. The O-line needs to WANT to control the play, not just play like there are in a "walk thru" practice.
When Pitt faces third downs, Virginia Tech has to stop the Panthers from converting, so third down conversion percentage for Pitt is my statistical key.
This times all the riches in Scotland.
What all of this boils down to is: Eat Shit Pitt.
Oof, only a 61% probability of beating UVa. If you'll excuse me for looking ahead, I don't think anyone would have expected that game to be competitive in the preseason.
If there's one thing that gives me optimism, it's knowing that we've at least done a good job putting away bad teams. Hopefully we can close out the season the same way.