Huge home win from the Hokies after the FSU letdown. The Buzz is HIGH. As things stand right now TKP, do you believe Buzzketball dances in March.
Why or why not?
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Next four are crucial. If we go 4-0 in games that are either coin flips or "should wins," we'll be in the tourney.
Eh I don't know about that. Going 4-0 in next 4 games will put us at 18-6 overall and 7-3 in the ACC. After that, our schedule is TOUGH with a road trip to UVA and two game against Duke with @ GT, vs. Louisville, vs. Clemson, and @ miami being the rest.
With our putrid OOC schedule, I'd say VT needs to split with Duke at the minimum, beat UVA and go 2-2 against the other 4 games to have a good chance of getting in.
If we're sitting 18-6 with that final game stretch, beating GT and any of the others will all but lock us in. We're not going to be left to the wayside with 20+ wins.
Going 4-0 isn't going to be simple but IF we do plus win 2 more, I don't think we would be a lock. Plenty of teams have been left out with 20+ wins. Having 20+ wins doesn't hold as much as it did in the past.
But I'll take a stab at your scenario.... lets just say you do go 4-0 and beat GT and one of the other games I mentioned. That means you wen't 2-5 in your last 7 games and sitting at 20-11.... I don't think that is a lock in any way.... especially with out OOC strength of schedule. The committee is going to look on how we finished regular season and OOC.... In the scenario above, that does not favor us at all.
I'll agree that 2-5 down the stretch doesn't appear favorable, but considering all 5 of those loses would presumable come against top 30 RPI teams, I don't see it being much of an issue. If that scenario does indeed play out, we'll get 3 more top 100 wins, and most likely 2 more top 25 wins. That'll give us total of 4/5 Top 100 wins and 4/5 Top 50 wins (depending on where Washington ends up). Our worst losses are gonna be a road game against a probably top 100 (maybe top 50) Syracuse and a nuetral court loss to a 150/160 St. Louis?
That's a pretty good resume I think. Better than Wake Forest offered last season. Obviously, a new year but that a 20-11 team with the resume above should be in the tournament, regardless if they're Hokies, or Hoos, or Demon Decons. That's a tournament team.
To steal a joke from rvaHokie21, you'd have to be certifiably insane to think a team like that wouldn't get into the tournament.
I agree there is good in such resume but I still think the bad (OOC strength and how you would presumably finish) out weighs the good you mention. But all that is contingent on us going 4-0 which I wouldn't be surprised if we did do that, but I see us going 2-2 or 3-1
I think we end up on the fence against another ACC team the same way Syracuse-Wake Forest did last year.
We're destined for the bubble and the OOC wasn't that great. We're probably going to be left out unless we get 2 more big wins.
But then again, this is a down year overall in basketball. We have 6 loss teams in the Top 10 and it's only January, so who knows.
6 loss teams in the top 10?
My gut says that the UNC game is what the team is capable of. My brain says that we've only seen it once this season, and it was in probably the most amped up home environment all season.
These next two road games are crucial. A 1-1 stretch gets the team back to "zero". A 2-0 stint gets the team to "plus one" which Buzz thinks gets any ACC team in the tournament.
The remaining schedule is brutal, so there are plenty of opportunites for Top 50 wins. Need to "hold serve" at home and win 2 road games. That would put us at 10-8 and we'd be in. If we're at 9-9 in ACC play, we'll likely need an ACCT win over a fellow bubble team to boost the resume.
Root for UW down the stretch - that could end up being a Top 50 win for us.
Huskies currently sit at #48
Yep - they have been hovering right around 50 for awhile, sliding in and out based on other teams' results. Would be good for them to get enough wins down the stretch to ensure a Top 50 finish.
At this time last year, we were 15-4 with the win against #5 Duke... The ACC was pretty strong last year, and I think it still is this year. However, even though we are up to par with last season, I think we will need at least two more big wins; possibly beat Duke one time and beat UVA. On top of that, we need to win most of these 50/50 games. The UNC win comes later in the season than the Duke win did last year so I believe it will give the team confidence going into the next few weeks. I think we make it (knock on wood), but it's gonna be a toss up.
Beating UVA is gonna be a difficult task, their defense is just suffocating teams right now.
No kidding. I thought our game was bad, then I saw the Clemson game.
UVA will hit a cold stretch at some point this season, they always do (Except for the year they had Brogdon but that dude was a monster)
They really screwed us with the schedule this year. UVA would have been our biggest home game and I think the team would have had a chance to beat them or at least hang with them if they had some ACC games under their belt and that home atmosphere we saw against UNC. Instead we got them right off the bat while everyone was on break.
I think you mean every year. Duke game was over break last year as well. I know in a conference like the ACC, it's tough to ensure that every team will get all their big home games outside of Christmas break, but when Cassel is filled, it's one of the best atmospheres in the ACC. I believe there are three teams that the ACC needs to avoid scheduling in Cassell over Christmas break, and that's UVA, Duke, and UNC. Since 2015, when Buzzketball started to get its legs, one of those three teams have been scheduled to play in Cassell over break.
We used to get an ACC game in early December which I think avoided the scheduling over break. Maybe the way the calendar falls its impossible now, but perhaps that would help.
After what I saw at that game, I can't see any way, shape or form that we'd have beaten UVA that game. They totally ate us up. I absolutely agree that it was unfortunate, and possibly added to our whuppin' not to have a full house of rowdy stoonts, but our team didn't show up at all that day, and unfortunately, UVA is damn good and they flat out dismantled our team.
According to RealTimeRPI, we're at #80. The only remaining games against lower rated teams are home vs NCSU (96) and at GT (142). We need to win those, win the next two against similarly ranked opponents (ND - #64, BC - #69) and hope we are able to get two or three wins from the remaining 7 games...all against teams ranked #21 or better.
No way we're in as it stands with only one signature W and less-than-stellar SOS. There's definitely a path to the dance though, getting the UNC W was a huge step.
Realistically, I think we can go 4-1 at home (which would mean getting a another signature W against Miami or Duke), and steal a couple of road wins (looking at Bonzie-less ND, BC and GT specifically) to go 2-4 on the road, that puts us at .500 in the ACC and squarely on (probably the wrong side of) the bubble.
If we can get 3 road wins though, while going 4-1 at home, I think we've got a tournament-worthy Resume assuming we don't get butt-smashed in our first ACC tourney game.
@ ND
@ BC
Miami
NC State
@ UVa
@ Duke
@ GT
Clemson
Louisville
Duke
@ Miami
I've got to find a way to work "butt-smashed" into a conversation.
You just did. Congratulations.
I think 4-1 at home, 2-4 on road, and two wins in the ACC Tourney has us sniffing a bid. But a lot of it really depends on the other bubble teams. If a couple of other start playing their way out that only helps our cause.
and two wins in the ACC Tourney has us sniffing a bid
That would make us .500 in conference which should be good for a 7-9 seed. If we have to win two games in the tourney, we'll be in a tough spot, because that second game is against the #1 or #2 seed. I would hate to think that our tourney hopes hang on being able to knock off UVA or Duke in the ACC tournament.
According to Buzz logic, in order to get into the tourney we would need to win our remaining home games and at least one on the road. That would make us 9-9 in conference play with a few Top 25 wins.
I do think we have a strong chance of winning our next 4 games, in which case we'd be squarely on the bubble until the ACC Tourney.
I think we have to get to 10-8 in conference to get in. That is 7-4 over the remaining 11 games, which will be incredibly difficult but not impossible. Making that even harder is 6 of those 11 are on the road.
@ ND
@ BC
Miami
NC State
@ UVa (#2)
@ Duke (#4)
@ GT
Clemson (#18)
Louisville
Duke (#4)
@ Miami
Going 3-3 on the road would allow us to go 4-1 at home. If we somehow manage to beat Duke or UVA on the road may be able end up 9-9 and still make it with some wins in the ACCT
Either way, we probably have to beat Duke once. Its going to be extremely hard, but maybe UNC was a turning point.
TLDR; I don't like our chances.
Buzz said he was tired of people complaining about his coaching on Twitter.
Therefore my frustration with Buzz (which has been mostly contained to private conversations/TKP) can have a positive effect.
I shall begin tweeting him posthaste.
logic = solid
I don't think so. With a lackluster OOC I think you may be looking at needing an 11-7 ACC finish (i.e. winning 8 of the last 11) to make it, and the remaining schedule is pretty gross. I just can't see it.
Please insert the "Can it with those negatives waves" Gif.
11-7 is needed? That's pretty crazy. Just take 10-8, that's 7 more wins. The worst 7 wins you can have are: @GT (RPI 140), NCSU (75), @BC (70), @ND (69), L'ville (19), and Miami (15) x2,. That would still leave loses to Clemson, UVA and Duke x2. 10-8 would increase our Top 25 wins to 4 and would increase our top 100 wins to 9.
I think we've got a shot if we are at 8-10, as long as they are the right 8. The good news from here on out is that we can't get a bad loss.
At least we are perceived as good enough that losing to us does not knock a team down 5-10 spots!!!
doubtful. 1 game sample size isn't big enough for me to think they will play better on defense and rebound this well vs a very difficult remaining schedule.