Buzzketball Central: Virginia Tech Hokies (18-7, 7-5) at #12 Duke Blue Devils (20-5, 8-4) 7PM ESPN2

IT'S GAMEDAY!🏀 #BeatDuke📍 Cameron Indoor🕖 7 PM📺 ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/zB4xKEpmPN— VT Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 14, 2018

GAME INFORMATION
Date/Time: Feb. 14, 2018 / 7 p.m.
Opponent: Duke University
Site: Durham, N.C. (Cameron Indoor Stadium)
Radio: Virginia Tech IMG Sports Network
Talent: Jon Laaser & Mike Burnop
TV: ESPN2
Talent: Mark Jones, Jay Bilas, Hubie Brown & Allison Williams
Live Stats: HokieSports.com
Game Notes: Virginia Tech
SIRI 81 (Internet 81)

We've got the perfect date planned for you tonight, #HokieNation.. see you at 7 PM 😍#HokieLove pic.twitter.com/jINNbfiMx6— VT Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 14, 2018

This Ones for You TV Teddy Valentine....

Buzzketball heads into Cameron Arena on a high note, after knocking off #1 Virginina, 61-60, in their last game out. The Hokies have to come out steady offensively against the Blue Devils, definitely avoiding Duke jumping out to a big early lead. This will be a tough test, especially with the size of the Blue Devil roster if Coach K brings it to bear. Duke sports eight players 6'7 or taller. That said, this season Coach K is only playing his starters and does not have a deep bench. Beyond the starting five there are only enough minutes for others to get on the floor about 45 total minutes per contest.

This game is always a sellout at Cameron which is a positive for how this team feeds on the energy of a building. This team could really use a solid crowd to help it bounce back if Duke manages to get out to a lead. Duke comes in having only lost five contests, including three of their last five games out. All but one of their losses have come in the ACC schedule, losing to Boston College, NC State, UVA, UNC and a weird non-conference game to St Johns in the middle of conference play. They have wins Michigan State, Texas, Florida, and Indiana in their OOC slate. They also have beaten Florida State, Pitt twice, Wake Forest twice, Miami, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They are coming in after beating up the Yellow Jackets 80-69 on the road.

This will be the fifty fifth meeting between the Hokies and Blue Devils. Duke leads the all-time series 45-9, starting all the way back in 1912. The Hokies last victory against the Blue Devils came last season as the Hokies throttled the #5 Blue Devils 89-75 in Blacksburg.

The Blue Devils are coached by Mike Krzyzewski, who has coached Duke to a 1018-276 career record, an almost 79% winning percentage. In the 37 years that Coach K has been at the helm, Duke has only managed to not make the NCAA tournament four times, and barring the year he had surgery, and relinquished the helm in 1995, it was only his first three years as head coach that they didn't make it.
One thing to keep in mind when facing Duke is a Coach K mantra, "A winning basketball team makes the opponent react to them, whether they are on offense or defense"

This team is full of stars, but not stars that have necessarily learned to play well together yet. There are four freshmen in the starting lineup alongside Grayson Allen. All five starters average in double figure scoring, with two at or close to a double-double a night in Bagley and Carter. Bagley may have to sit this game out with an injury. Reports are indicating he will not play.

Defensively, the Blue Devils employ a high pressure attacking defense that varies its form and style based on opponents. This season it seems a two three zone with three guards harassing the perimeter ball handler by shifting into passing lanes and making it difficult to get a clean shot or pass the ball. A couple other tenets of a Coach K defense are that his defenses involve getting all five players to play together: talking on defense, seeing the ball, and moving as the ball moves. He expects all five guys to play for the charge as a standard. He also coaches his team that defense continues until the ball is in Duke hands.

Offensively, Duke usually runs a three out, two in Motion offense, which involves the perimeter players looking for bigs at the free throw line to create space, open up driving lanes, or allowing for kickout shots from the corner. The Blue Devils excel at moving without the ball so they are in the right spot to take advantage of a defensive miscue. Duke isn't exactly the fastest paced offense so the Hokies should look to speed them up if they can.

What does that mean for the Hokies?

First off, Hats off to J-Rob, #5, Justin Robinson for being named the Citizen's Naismith Player of the Week last week.

This week's @CitizenWatchUS Naismith Men's Players of the Week is @HokiesMBB, @5Alive_! 🏀 Robinson averaged 26 points and 5.5 assists in their past two wins, including a victory over then #2 @UVAMensHoops! pic.twitter.com/t1DXfQoxva— The Naismith Trophy (@NaismithTrophy) February 12, 2018

The Hokies need to come out realizing they have an advantage in terms of playing team basketball. One thing pointed out about the Blue Devils is that they have played more like individuals in their recent losses than as a coherent group. That said, when these stars align, the Blue Devils are ACC basketball at its best so Tech needs to be prepared to force the pace of this game. Duke is not exactly burning the nets down this season so far, shooting only 39% from behind the arc and 50% from the field total. The Hokies need to try to protect the paint and make Duke earn it hitting jump shots or long range bombs.

This should be a high paced game if the Hokies want to have a chance to win. They need to run the legs off the Duke bigs. They cannot afford a letdown like they had against Miami either, as Duke will put them in a much deeper hole than the Hurricanes. Duke will outsize the Hokies at only one or two of the five spots on the floor for a majority of the game. As we have seen multiple times this season, Tech has the ability to open up a significant lead on a team if they come out fast.

The Blue Devils unlike most other seasons have relied on the perimeter shot much more this season. They much prefer to work the ball inside but are averaging over 22 attempts from outside a contest. The two keys for Tech here is that Blackshear and Nickiel Alexander-Walker have to stay out of early foul trouble and Tech needs to have hands up in a more collapsing style defense today.

The Blue Devils heavily rely on their starting five, three of whom play thirty three or more minutes per contest, two others that are at or above 27 minutes per contest. Tech must find a way to get to the line early and often, hitting their free throws while also getting their opponent in early foul trouble so they are forced to dig into their less prepared bench. This could be an even more prominent part of the game if Bagley sits out like is being reported.

Blue Devils Backcourt

Freshmen Gary Trent Jr, (#2) 6'6, 209 Lbs, Guard, comes in second on the Blue Devils in scoring, putting up 15.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.6 APG and 1.2 SPG. He is the one of two of Dukes top five scorers that is averaging over 40% from outside at 45%, he also is shooting 42% from the field and is shooting 87% from the line.

Grayson Allen, (#3) 6'4, 195 Lbs, who was averaging 14.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4.6 APG, all while shooting 85% so far from the line. He is shooting 37% from outside and 50% from inside this season. Allen will look to dribble penetrate much like Justin Robinson to do much of his scoring.

Freshman Trevon Duvall, (#1) 6'3, 186 Lbs is averaging 11.1 PPG, 2 RPG, and 5.7 APG. Duvall comes in shooting 51% from the inside, 27% from behind the line and 60% from the line. He has successfully run the point for the Blue Devils most of the season.

Alex O'Connell, (#15) 6'6, 171 Lbs is the next freshmen up in this rotation and is averaging 4.6 PPG and 1.7 RPG. He has been averaging 12 minutes per contest but ended up playing 22 against Georgia Tech with Bagley sitting out.

Blue Devils Frontcourt

Freshman Forward Marvin Bagley III, #35, 6'11, 234 lbs is the leading scorer for Duke. Bagley is putting up 21.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1 SPG and 1.1 BPG. He is shooting 64% inside, 35% outside and 62% from the free throw line. If he misses tonight's game that is a big piece of their offense sitting on the bench.

Freshman Wendell Carter Jr, #34, 6'10, 259 lbs this season is averaging almost a double-double with 14.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 2.2 BPG while shooting 63% from the inside and a scary 47% from outside while also hitting 70% of his free throws. Hard to say that someone has had a bigger impact than Bagley but Carter definitely can make the argument, especially on the defensive end of the floor.

With Bagley out, expect to see quite a bit of Sophomores Marques Bolden (#20) and Javin Delaurier (#12). Bolden is 6'11, 245 Lbs and DeLaurier is 6' 10, 220 Lbs. They had been combining for 7.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, and 1.6 BPG over about 23 mpg. Against Georgia Tech these two saw 43 minutes of floor time, put up 11 points, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals and 1 block.

What to expect from Duke?

The Blue Devils play predominantly a half court high pressure defense in either man to man or zone geared towards making opponents make mistakes. Their goal is to take the ball away any way possible, limiting the number of shots that an opponent takes to instantly give them an advantage on the other end. Relentless attack on the ballhandlers so that they move from defense to offense.

Expect to see a team that is just not touching into all of its potential but also dealing with the injury to Bagley. This might actually backfire on the Hokies somewhat as Bagley being a freewheeling component of this team has been widely reported this year and has been a point of emphasis in several of their losses.

The Blue Devils are the number one scoring offense in the country, averaging 88.8 PPG and only allowing opponents 72.6 PPG. That's a 16 point average margin of victory so far this season. There are a few extreme blowouts that contribute to that but for the most part Duke has won by double digits in almost all its games. Why is this important? With the number of freshman on this squad and Bagley out, if Tech can make this a close contest its not something Duke has had to deal with much and could work in the Hokies favor. Duke has been less than double digits in a win five times this season, a seven point win over Michigan State, a seven point win over Texas, a three point win over Florida, a seven point win over Florida State and a eight point win over Miami. In their five losses, only one was double digits. That means that in games decided by ten points or less, Duke is 5-4 this season.

Rebounding wise, the Blue Devils may be a nightmare scenario for Tech but so far this season they only average the second most rebounds in the country at 42.6 rebounds per night. Part of the explanation though is that they don't miss as often as other teams so there are not rebounds to be had. Duke comes in as a team shooting 56% from inside the arc.

Duke is fairly average when it comes to fouling opponents, giving up about 16.76 personal fouls per game with only Carter and Duvall consistently in foul trouble at 2.9 and 2.8 per game respectively. Hopefully the Hokies ability to speed up the game and stretch the opponent will lead to a few more opportunities as they force defenders to reach.

The Hokies

Our 4️⃣th 'Road Game'📸 of the '17-'18 🏀ACC season for our 'Culture Wall'Thank you to all the #Hokies near/far4️⃣their support🧡💜We will turn all blessings back2️⃣praise🙏🏾 pic.twitter.com/7lfF8u5N2e— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) February 11, 2018

Tech needs to be ready to keep a high paced tempo the entire game without letting up if they want to win this matchup. They have to be able to get a high number of transition baskets while forcing Duke out of its comfort zone in methodically attacking the ball. Essentially force Duke to deal with their own medicine when they are on offense. Duke has been averaging more than 12 turnovers per game in ACC play.

Tech will have a tough time winning the lane so it has to be able to hit its jumpers, especially critical is hitting its perimeter shots. Tech likely needs to shoot better than 50% from outside to be a factor in this game.

This may seem counterintuitive but they still need to Pound the Paint, as both Robinson and Blackshear need to play a major role in this game. Getting the ball inside and forcing Duke's bigs to adjust to the Hokies challenging them inside. Clarke should also play a major factor in possibly getting the Blue Devils in some foul trouble. One thing to remember though is that Duke is averaging 5.48 blocks per game as a team so the Hokies need to make sure that they get quality looks at the basket.

Highlight of the UVA Game

Just looking at the box score you would say Justin Robinson, but I give the nod to Nickiel Walker-Alexander in this one. The freshman stepped up and hit key shots when they were needed most.

In Closing

We need to see a game much like last season, where Duke didn't have a chance to catch their breath. All the arguments of talent and size go out the window when you are a step behind your opponent all night. The Hokies have speed and athleticism that Duke could only match

The Hokies have to work the ball to the open man and hit those shots when they get them. One of the main reasons that Duke has won by such big margins this season is that they have kept opponents shooting percentage down to about 40% from the floor. That gives them almost a 10% edge compared to how Duke has done on the offensive end and that's barring making opponents make other mistakes with the ball before they even manage to get shots off. One positive is the opponents have managed to outshoot Duke this season by about two shots per contest so they are not like UVA who holds you to a low percentage and limits your shot totals on top of that.

I expect to see Buzz stretch the floor, especially on defense with Bagley out. They will try to attack Duke before they even manage to get across half court so they are able to limit Duke's time to set up offensive plays but also hope to create transition baskets or foul line opportunities.

I expect with the injury to Bagley that this game will be much closer than most would expect, which should work in the Hokies favor. Keep the game from reaching blow out status and close out a win in the final few minutes. Hokies win 88-84.

You can't:want the reward 🏆, & not the strugglewant the result 🥇, & not the process.Your struggle determines the level of your success— Buzz Williams (@TeamCoachBuzz) February 13, 2018