I just saw a really nice article with some nice statistics (team and individual) which provides a good objective view of who the Hokies Men's B-ball team is this year. Really great read. Enjoy Hokie fans!! Here is the link:
Here is a plot from the article showing our seeding Histogram.
I'd much rather see us avoid an 8 or 9 seed, but it's been a long time since the Hokies have been this highly seeded, so:
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I want whatever seed that it will take to get to the sweet 16 at least. If we don't make it past the first weekend I will truly be bummed, even though it will be another step in the right direction for this program.
Now that I think about it, I wouldn't mind being that bracket buster either, hmmm...
via GIPHY
Not sure if I can agree with this. To me, this would only be a lateral move. I'd hate to say it, but even in Greenberg's lone appearance of the dance, whilst our coach, made it past EDIT the opening game. We've got to AT THE VERY LEAST make it past the opener.
I guess what I was indirectly implying was getting past that first round game would be a step in the right direction. Not making it past the first weekend though I think would show that we're still making baby steps.
No we didn't, lost in the 2nd round to Southern Illinois
The first weekend has 2 games, Thu/Sat or Fri/Sun. "Getting past the first weekend" = getting to the Sweet 16, not the Round of 32.
Sorry, I misunderstood. Meant to say at least got past the first game. Thanks for clarifying.
You will only be happy if we get to the Sweet 16?
What? Why? Not many teams make it that far. Like 16 or so.
Your math checks out. Nice work.
Agreed! Considering the season a bummer based on making the sweet 16 is unreasonable. A: your math about only 16 teams checks out and B: measuring the season on one or two games in the tourney is putting too much emphasis on a tiny sample size.
It's been a great season, that's been fun to watch It's clearly elevated the perception of the program. That should lead to all the rewards of winning: better media exposure, more donations, better recruiting, etc. And, making the tourney two years in a row is a HUGE step in the right direction, especially in such a tough league.
I'm hoping for two fun tourney runs, but it would be silly to be bummed about this season if they don't work out in our favor.
That curve will shift again after we beat Miami on Saturday.
Exactly. If we can somehow secure a double bye and a victory in ACC tourney, we should go higher than 8. I'd hate to play a #1 seed in the second round.
WaPo says you're wrong
That's a pretty weird way to look at it though. They're probably ranked higher because they're better. There's really no good way to analyze that
Counterpoint: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/
The 'odds to advance to the sweet 16' says it all. 10 seed and 7 seed advance at basically the same rate, which is significantly higher then the rate at which either 8 or 9 seeds advance. Indicating strongly that 1 seeds are scary and should be avoided as long as possible. If we're not going to get to at least the 7 seed, frankly I would rather be a 10 or 11. Once you get to the 5 or 6 seed and into the top half of the bracket, it gets to be much more likely to advance.
This leaves me wanting to win either one more ACC game, either Miami or 1st round ACCT, or all of the rest of the games, because my gut feeling is the former gets us a 10 seed, and the latter gives us a chance for a 7 or better seed. Anything in between makes me worry that we're going to get stuck with an 8 or 9 and have a very bad chance to advance beyond the first weekend.
#firstworldproblems. It's nice to be having this discussion in February instead of 'how is the committee going to fuck us again this year'.
So based on this we can say with 100 percent certainty that we will be either an 8 or 9 seed
If we're a 13 seed, I pity the 4 seed that has to play us
If we can't be higher than a 8 I'd prefer to be a 10 or 11 and play a 2- 3 in the second round. The vs. 6-7 first rounder would be very winnable.
Two links for your perusal:
what if calculator. Pick winners of remaining games and see how the ACC tourney seeds fall.
Odds of regular season finish
This game against Miami is huge for us. If we beat them and Louisville beats NCSU (and all other games fall according to odds), then we get a 3 seed in the ACC tourney. Same results across the board except we drop the Miami game? 8 seed, playing FSU followed immediately by playing Virginia again. No thanks. Let's just beat Miami
Greater than 25% chance of a double bye. How about that?
24% chance I believe
Maths is hard.
I didn't major in engineering for a reason.
Must be that new math...
I was looking for this site the other day. If Clemson beats Florida State and NC State beats Louisville, we'll manage the 7 seed. We'd be looking at facing Louisville and then Duke though, so I'm not sure that's any better than just being the 8/9 seed.
I like the scenario where UNC FLST GT VT Lville Clem and UVa win this weekend giving us ACC 5 seed with games vs BC/GT winner then Clemson before a potential UVa game...
Add Miami, GT, Clemson wins to our current resume and I think we get better than an 8 seed...
I agree with the goal of missing the 8/9 line... Although wins over Duke and UVa have me unreasonably confident that we can beat any top team.
The guy who wrote the article is married to a Hokie. She's one of my wife's best friends. I wonder if that influenced his writing? I can tell you when he writes about the Hokies in a positive light his life is a little easier.
So, according to the graph:
27% chance of playing in the 8/9 game
24% - 7/10
16% - 6/11
8% - 5/12
Pumped to see there's "only" a 27% chance of being in that 8/9 game.
How funny would it be if we got screwed by the committee and ended up a 12 seed (6% chance). We'd be one stupid scary 12 and every bracket radio/tv conversation would be about VT as a 12 seed that's going to upset a 5.
More realistically, really hoping to end up in that 7/10 game.
VT has beaten a 1-seed, two 2-seeds, and a 4/5-seed (based on most current projections). So, in theory, bring 'em all on, it doesn't matter. In reality, 7 and 10 are better.
Regardless of seeding, they'll likely be favored in that opening round game. Based on how their season has progressed, that opening round might be more worrisome than that second round.
I came to this thread wondering why someone had written a White Paper on Virginia Tech Men's Basketball and what possible funding source they were sending it to.
It's been a long week, y'all.
Nice article, enjoyed reading it. Thanks for posting!
Unless I'm missing something, it only adds up to 77%, so is he saying there's a 23% chance VT is left out? If so - WAY WRONG :)
This will be the first time VT has ever had 3 consecutive winning records in conference play. The ACC has been a snake pit the last 3 years. Give Buzz all the money he wants.
Beat Miami and we *should* be a 6. We have the single best win in the entire NCAA this year (At Virginia). Three wins over final four caliber teams (Duke, UNC, UVA). That should count for something.
Back to Back tourney appearances is huge.
Getting players like NAW and Nolley is big.
Now we need more bigs like Blackshear.
I hear there were some bigs in the stands
BIG if true
The 2006-07 team could make an argument as being the best team to ever play ACC basketball. They beat UNC when they were #1 and #4 and Duke on the road when they were #5. They also could have won a share of the regular season ACC title had they not laid an egg against Clemson in the final game of the season, but Seth Greenberg was the coach, and that's what his teams did. I really wish I could have seen that team coached by Buzz.
Edited some typos that I will blame on the late hour that this comment was made at.